Ed Sappin of Sappin Global strategies discusses geopolitical issues.
PRLog - Dec. 15, 2014 - NEW YORK -- 2014 is one of the most volatile years in memory across the globe. As Ukraine continues through another month of undeclared war with an invading Russian force and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continues its fight to take over Iraq and Syria and sow unrest across the Middle East and Southwest Asia, there is little direct comment or action from China on both conflicts. The world looks to the US and NATO, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, while the EU struggles to get its act together in facing an organized Russia. In Iraq and Syria, President Obama is taking action for an alliance against ISIS that may lead to an endless battle to take back control of both countries. In the end, boundaries may have to be re drawn and the countries may not exist as they are at present. ISIS may have its way after all.
The US steps up, even if reluctantly and fights against terror and aggression as a global leader. This endless cycle of war drains the US economy and distracts from other problems, such as border security.
Enter China. Or not. China has been discussed in passing regarding the conflict in Iraq and Syria. Its main comments concern the balance between confronting ISIS and terrorism on the one hand and respecting a country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. At the same time, at least one Chinese citizen has been captured fighting for ISIS and there are an estimated 100 Chinese fighting for the terrorist group. In Eastern Europe few negative comments have been made by China against Russia regarding its aggression in Ukraine.
In some respects, the policymakers in Beijing have to be overjoyed that Europe and the US are getting sidetracked in other parts of the world. On the surface it helps China, politically, militarily and economically.
Ed Sappin, CEO of Sappin Global Strategies, offers a counter argument: this is a major opportunity for China to show that its’ increased economic weight is matched by increased political currency. The US and Europe could be concerned by a more forceful China, but China is at risk over the longer term if it does nothing to make its voice clearly heard in Eastern Europe and the Middle East/Southwest Asia.
According to Sappin, first, China has a “free rider” issue. The more it stays out of conflicts such as those unfolding in Eastern Europe and the Middle East/Southwest Asia, by claiming they are not core foreign policy issues for the PRC, the less seriously the country is taken as a global power. Chinese companies did a very good job of coming into Iraq during the US occupation and signing lucrative contracts to develop oilfields. While these deals are now in doubt, the Middle Kingdom is going to quickly find that if it wants to project economic power around the world, it has to be involved politically and possible militarily.
Second, Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty goes against China’s long-held policy of territorial integrity and not meddling in a country’s internal affairs. While much of the world looks at Taiwan, Hong Kong and even Tibet as international relations issues, China is adamant that these are domestic issues. It is hard to maintain this idea of borders being inviolable if Russia walks into Ukraine and China does not object or act. Moreover, it is not too far-fetched to foresee President Putin eyeing East Asia when and if he gets through with possible further action in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The last thing China wants is another potential threat on its very long northern border with Russia.
Finally, China’s internal terrorism is getting worse. Attacks on a train station, on Tiananmen Square and on a crowded market have hit Kunming, Beijing and Urumuqi over the past year, cities in very distinct parts of China. While one can argue that the rise in terrorism may be linked to forced integration of Han Chinese into parts of the country where they are not welcome, Beijing has to be nervous that there are Chinese citizens fighting for a radical Islamic state that wants to spread its vision. These fighters and their brethren will be looking for new conflicts in the coming years, whether they are pushed out of Iraq and Syria or they are successful in consolidating their current gains.
China has an opportunity to show its people and the world that is a constructive force, while maintaining its policy of territorial sovereignty and non-interference in domestic affairs. While Taiwan and Hong Kong are core policy concerns and increasing tension with Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and other nations in East and Southeast Asia are more pressing for Beijing, it would make great sense for China’s policymakers to take the longer-term view and get directly involved in becoming part of the solution in confronting ISIS in Iraq and Syria and confronting Russia in Eastern Europe.
Ed Sappin is the CEO of Sappin Global Strategies, a strategy and investment firm based in New York.
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Will China Step Up and be a Global Political Leader? Ed Sappin Discusses The Ukraine and ISIS Crises
December 15, 2014 at 21:17 PM EST
