TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,410,000 units in September, down by 2.3 percent from a year ago.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.4 million units for the month, down from an 18.0 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 4.6 percent to 1,213,000 based on slower consumer demand.
“As we head into Q4, we’re likely to see another record breaking year,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s chief industry analyst. “Recent sales declines may suggest otherwise, but automakers are still posting higher than average transaction prices with strong consumer demand for luxury and SUV vehicles.”
Total volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely be down by 2.6 percent versus last year, while sales of luxury models may decline by 0.2 percent.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,387 per vehicle in August, up 7.8 percent from a year ago, and up 0.5 percent from August 2016.
“With the biggest household income growth year-over-year in nearly a decade and full employment, we continue to observe positive signs among consumers to support robust automotive retail demand,” said Oliver Strauss, TrueCar’s chief economist.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index boasted a solid increase in August at 101.1, up from 96.7 in July and overall U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. August’s unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, the lowest for that month in eight years, while gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $2.21 per gallon on September 26 from $2.29 a year earlier.
Other key findings for September:
- Registration mix is expected to be 86 percent retail sales and 14 percent fleet versus 88.1 percent retail and 11.9 percent fleet last September.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,228,833 down 1.9 percent from September 2015.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales | ||||||
% Change vs. | ||||||
September | September 2015 | |||||
Manufacturer | 2016 Forecast | September 2015 | (Daily Selling Rate) | |||
| BMW | 29,800 | 31,092 | -4.2% | |||
| Daimler | 31,000 | 32,087 | -3.4% | |||
| FCA | 184,000 | 195,976 | -6.1% | |||
| Ford | 200,000 | 221,269 | -9.6% | |||
| GM | 250,000 | 251,310 | -0.5% | |||
| Honda | 135,000 | 133,750 | 0.9% | |||
| Hyundai | 62,000 | 64,015 | -3.1% | |||
| Kia | 49,000 | 49,820 | -1.6% | |||
| Nissan | 121,000 | 121,782 | -0.6% | |||
| Subaru | 57,250 | 53,070 | 7.9% | |||
| Toyota | 195,000 | 194,399 | 0.3% | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 46,000 | 48,092 | -4.3% | |||
Industry | 1,410,000 | 1,442,460 | -2.3% | |||
Total Market Share | ||||||
| September 2016 | ||||||
| Manufacturer | Forecast | September 2015 | August 2016 | |||
| BMW | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | |||
| Daimler | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | |||
| FCA | 13.0% | 13.6% | 13.1% | |||
| Ford | 14.2% | 15.3% | 14.1% | |||
| GM | 17.7% | 17.4% | 17.0% | |||
| Honda | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | |||
| Hyundai | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | |||
| Kia | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | |||
| Nissan | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | |||
| Subaru | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | |||
| Toyota | 13.8% | 13.5% | 14.1% | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | |||
Retail Unit Sales | ||||||
% Change vs. | ||||||
September 2016 | September 2015 | |||||
Manufacturer | Forecast | September 2015 | (Daily Selling Rate) | |||
| BMW | 28,700 | 30,067 | -4.5% | |||
| Daimler | 29,400 | 30,307 | -3.0% | |||
| FCA | 139,000 | 147,492 | -5.8% | |||
| Ford | 158,000 | 175,245 | -9.8% | |||
| GM | 202,500 | 212,401 | -4.7% | |||
| Honda | 133,000 | 132,934 | 0.0% | |||
| Hyundai | 47,000 | 51,586 | -8.9% | |||
| Kia | 42,000 | 45,252 | -7.2% | |||
| Nissan | 108,000 | 106,870 | 1.1% | |||
| Subaru | 55,250 | 52,039 | 6.2% | |||
| Toyota | 182,500 | 181,969 | 0.3% | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 42,000 | 45,284 | -7.3% | |||
Industry | 1,213,000 | 1,271,358 | -4.6% | |||
Incentive Spending | ||||||||
| Incentive per Unit | Incentive per Unit | Incentive per | Total Spending | |||||
| September 2016 | % Change vs. | Unit % Change | September 2016 | |||||
| Manufacturer | Forecast | September 2015 | vs. August 2016 | Forecast | ||||
| BMW | $6,732 | 44.3% | 3.9% | $200,149,798 | ||||
| Daimler | $4,342 | -9.3% | -0.7% | $134,606,111 | ||||
| FCA | $4,302 | 22.8% | 2.3% | $787,920,965 | ||||
| Ford | $4,092 | 11.4% | -1.5% | $818,334,932 | ||||
| GM | $4,101 | 2.1% | -2.3% | $1,025,188,553 | ||||
| Honda | $1,722 | -16.7% | 6.3% | $232,486,118 | ||||
| Hyundai | $2,431 | 1.2% | 0.4% | $150,692,862 | ||||
| Kia | $2,763 | -1.9% | -0.1% | $135,403,832 | ||||
| Nissan | $3,896 | 12.1% | 1.9% | $471,458,000 | ||||
| Subaru | $1,014 | 68.5% | 3.8% | $58,055,714 | ||||
| Toyota | $2,330 | -0.1% | -3.4% | $454,259,672 | ||||
| Volkswagen Group | $3,910 | 23.4% | -0.7% | $178,798,144 | ||||
Industry | $3,387 | 7.8% | 0.5% | $4,760,645,566 | ||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
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VCardenas@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com
