ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,600,000 units in December, down 2.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for one less selling day this year than in December 2015, sales may rise 1.0 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.41 million units for the month, down from a 17.52 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 2.2 percent to 1,406,281 adjusted for selling days.
“Barring a last minute push to close out the year, estimated sales will fall just a few thousand units short of the all-time sales record set in 2015,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “2016 will close out one of the most impressive runs of sales growth in automotive history. Following the turmoil of the Great Recession, the auto industry led the charge in economic recovery and continues to remain robust, setting the stage for sustained strength and balanced health for the remainder of the decade.”
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,673 per vehicle in December, up 19.9 percent from a year ago, and down 1.6 percent from November 2016.
“Although incentive spending remains high, ALG expects production cuts in 2017 to find a better balance with natural demand,” said Lyman. “Despite falling short of the 2015 sales record, retail automotive sales continue at a blistering pace, giving the auto industry plenty to celebrate as we close out the year.”
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.0 this month compared to 93.8 in November which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the November unemployment rate came in at an nine year low of 4.6 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.24 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for December:
- Registration mix is expected to be 87.9 percent retail sales and 12.1 percent fleet versus 87.5 percent retail and 12.5 percent fleet last December.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 2,693,143 up 0.8 percent from December 2015.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume: Total Unit Sales | ||||||||||
Manufacturer | December 2016 Forecast | December 2015 | % Change vs. December 2015 | YoY % | ||||||
| BMW | 37,000 | 39,699 | -6.8 | % | -3.3 | % | ||||
| Daimler | 40,000 | 38,918 | 2.8 | % | 6.6 | % | ||||
| FCA | 185,000 | 218,600 | -15.4 | % | -12.2 | % | ||||
| Ford | 232,000 | 237,606 | -2.4 | % | 1.3 | % | ||||
| GM | 297,000 | 290,230 | 2.3 | % | 6.1 | % | ||||
| Honda | 148,000 | 150,893 | -1.9 | % | 1.7 | % | ||||
| Hyundai | 66,500 | 63,508 | 4.7 | % | 8.6 | % | ||||
| Kia | 54,500 | 54,241 | 0.5 | % | 4.2 | % | ||||
| Nissan | 135,000 | 139,300 | -3.1 | % | 0.5 | % | ||||
| Subaru | 61,000 | 56,274 | 8.4 | % | 12.4 | % | ||||
| Toyota | 227,000 | 238,350 | -4.8 | % | -1.2 | % | ||||
| Volkswagen Group | 54,000 | 55,951 | -3.5 | % | 0.1 | % | ||||
Industry | 1,600,000 | 1,643,289 | -2.6 | % | 1.0 | % | ||||
Total Market Share | |||||||||
| Manufacturer | December 2016 Forecast | December 2015 | November 2016 | ||||||
| BMW | 2.3 | % | 2.4 | % | 2.2 | % | |||
| Daimler | 2.5 | % | 2.4 | % | 2.4 | % | |||
| FCA | 11.6 | % | 13.3 | % | 11.7 | % | |||
| Ford | 14.5 | % | 14.5 | % | 14.2 | % | |||
| GM | 18.6 | % | 17.7 | % | 18.3 | % | |||
| Honda | 9.3 | % | 9.2 | % | 8.9 | % | |||
| Hyundai | 4.2 | % | 3.9 | % | 4.4 | % | |||
| Kia | 3.4 | % | 3.3 | % | 3.8 | % | |||
| Nissan | 8.4 | % | 8.5 | % | 8.3 | % | |||
| Subaru | 3.8 | % | 3.4 | % | 3.7 | % | |||
| Toyota | 14.2 | % | 14.5 | % | 14.4 | % | |||
Volkswagen Group | 3.4 | % | 3.4 | % | 3.8 | % | |||
Retail Unit Sales | ||||||||||
Manufacturer | December 2016 | December 2015 | YoY % | YoY % | ||||||
| BMW | 35,520 | 38,360 | -7.4 | % | -4.0 | % | ||||
| Daimler | 37,630 | 36,586 | 2.9 | % | 6.7 | % | ||||
| FCA | 150,000 | 168,848 | -11.2 | % | -7.9 | % | ||||
| Ford | 182,923 | 190,603 | -4.0 | % | -0.5 | % | ||||
| GM | 254,000 | 250,360 | 1.5 | % | 5.2 | % | ||||
| Honda | 146,509 | 149,295 | -1.9 | % | 1.8 | % | ||||
| Hyundai | 54,544 | 51,984 | 4.9 | % | 8.8 | % | ||||
| Kia | 46,857 | 50,753 | -7.7 | % | -4.3 | % | ||||
| Nissan | 116,214 | 117,298 | -0.9 | % | 2.7 | % | ||||
| Subaru | 59,511 | 54,248 | 9.7 | % | 13.8 | % | ||||
| Toyota | 214,000 | 222,858 | -4.0 | % | -0.4 | % | ||||
| Volkswagen Group | 50,398 | 51,003 | -1.2 | % | 2.5 | % | ||||
Industry | 1,406,281 | 1,438,179 | -2.2 | % | 1.4 | % | ||||
Incentive Spending | ||||||||||||
| Manufacturer | Incentive per Unit | Incentive per Unit | Incentive per Unit | Total Spending | ||||||||
| BMW | $ | 5,815 | 21.9 | % | 1.2 | % | $ | 214,752,557 | ||||
| Daimler | $ | 4,607 | 1.9 | % | -4.0 | % | $ | 184,293,341 | ||||
| FCA | $ | 4,291 | 21.9 | % | 0.5 | % | $ | 789,079,658 | ||||
| Ford | $ | 4,190 | 34.1 | % | -0.9 | % | $ | 972,051,418 | ||||
| GM | $ | 4,611 | 13.8 | % | -3.6 | % | $ | 1,369,519,394 | ||||
| Honda | $ | 2,154 | 24.4 | % | 0.9 | % | $ | 318,742,226 | ||||
| Hyundai | $ | 2,606 | 31.0 | % | -0.5 | % | $ | 173,329,459 | ||||
| Kia | $ | 3,416 | 20.6 | % | 1.4 | % | $ | 186,186,312 | ||||
| Nissan | $ | 4,237 | 15.9 | % | -1.6 | % | $ | 572,049,235 | ||||
| Subaru | $ | 1,162 | 103.4 | % | -1.8 | % | $ | 70,853,630 | ||||
| Toyota | $ | 2,723 | 13.2 | % | -2.3 | % | $ | 618,227,347 | ||||
| Volkswagen Group | $ | 4,392 | 23.4 | % | -1.6 | % | $ | 234,976,376 | ||||
Industry | $ | 3,673 | 19.9 | % | -1.6 | % | $ | 5,857,183,718 | ||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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