ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $44 billion for the month of February, up 0.4 percent from a year ago.
Automakers should post a $188 million gain in revenue due to healthy overall gains in average transaction prices.
Average Transaction Prices in February 2017 declined by 0.7 percent compared to the prior month while showing a gain of 1.9 percent over the prior year.
“A sizeable gain in average transaction prices is offsetting higher incentive spending, landing the ratio of incentives to ATP at 10.3%,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief analyst. “From ALG’s viewpoint, incentive spending as a percentage of ATP of 10% or lower represents a healthy retail sales environment for the industry.”
ALG estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $33,307 in February, up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $409 to $3,443.
“It’s positive to see incentives relative to ATP pull back from the higher levels in Q4 of 2016. We also expect lower inventories combined with an uptick in demand during the Spring selling season to bring further relief in this key metric of industry health,” said Lyman.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer | Feb. 2017 | Feb. 2016 | Jan. 2017 | Percent Change | Percent Change | ||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $49,108 | $51,709 | $51,154 | -5.0% | -4.0% | ||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $60,723 | $56,001 | $58,901 | 8.4% | 3.1% | ||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $32,223 | $32,660 | $33,392 | -1.3% | -3.5% | ||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $35,871 | $33,993 | $36,756 | 5.5% | -2.4% | ||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $36,400 | $36,724 | $36,828 | -0.9% | -1.2% | ||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $27,059 | $27,535 | $27,589 | -1.7% | -1.9% | ||||||||||
| Hyundai | $24,066 | $23,784 | $23,633 | 1.2% | 1.8% | ||||||||||
| Kia | $23,194 | $22,721 | $22,984 | 2.1% | 0.9% | ||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $24,234 | $26,861 | $27,957 | -9.8% | -13.3% | ||||||||||
| Subaru | $27,866 | $27,738 | $28,144 | 0.5% | -1.0% | ||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $33,726 | $31,230 | $31,872 | 8.0% | 5.8% | ||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $34,789 | $32,658 | $33,230 | 6.5% | 4.7% | ||||||||||
Industry | $33,307 | $32,691 | $33,545 | 1.9% | -0.7% | ||||||||||
Incentive per Unit Spending
Manufacturer | Feb. 2017 | Feb. 2016 | Jan. 2017 | Percent Change | Percent Change | ||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $4,450 | $4,584 | $4,032 | -2.9% | 10.4% | ||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $4,415 | $3,754 | $4,465 | 17.6% | -1.1% | ||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $4,227 | $3,916 | $4,219 | 7.9% | 0.2% | ||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $4,097 | $3,317 | $4,144 | 23.5% | -1.1% | ||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $4,550 | $4,022 | $4,587 | 13.1% | -0.8% | ||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $2,168 | $1,490 | $2,095 | 45.5% | 3.5% | ||||||||||
| Hyundai | $2,182 | $2,099 | $2,176 | 3.9% | 0.3% | ||||||||||
| Kia | $3,383 | $2,872 | $3,366 | 17.8% | 0.5% | ||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $3,975 | $3,396 | $3,993 | 17.1% | -0.4% | ||||||||||
| Subaru | $896 | $557 | $966 | 60.9% | -7.2% | ||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $2,157 | $2,102 | $2,212 | 2.6% | -2.5% | ||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $3,466 | $3,386 | $3,418 | 2.4% | 1.4% | ||||||||||
Industry | $3,443 | $3,034 | $3,472 | 13.5% | -0.8% | ||||||||||
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
Manufacturer | Feb. 2017 | Feb. 2016 | Jan. 2017 | Percent Change | Percent Change | ||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 15.0% | ||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | -4.1% | ||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 13.1% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | ||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 11.4% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 1.3% | ||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 12.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 0.4% | ||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 8.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 48.1% | 5.5% | ||||||||||
| Hyundai | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | -1.5% | ||||||||||
| Kia | 14.6% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 15.4% | -0.4% | ||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 16.4% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 29.8% | 14.9% | ||||||||||
| Subaru | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 60.1% | -6.3% | ||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | -5.0% | -7.9% | ||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.3% | -3.9% | -3.2% | ||||||||||
Industry | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | -0.1% | ||||||||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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