ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $48 billion for the month of April, down -3.0 percent from a year ago.
Despite higher average transaction prices, lower sales volumes will result in an expected decline of $1.5 billion in revenue for automakers versus April 2016. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 13.9 percent.
“With the spring selling season underway, automakers are starting to manage production levels and pull back on elevated incentive spending with expected declines from March 2017,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s Chief Industry Analyst.
ALG estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $33,112 in April, up 0.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $424 to $3,465. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 10.5 percent, up from 9.3 percent a year ago.
Average Transaction Price (ATP) | |||||||||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr. 2017 | Apr. 2016 | Mar. | Percent Apr. 2016 | Percent | ||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $ | 51,600 | $ | 51,809 | $ | 51,551 | -0.4 | % | 0.1 | % | |||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $ | 62,441 | $ | 55,155 | $ | 59,989 | 13.2 | % | 4.1 | % | |||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $ | 33,558 | $ | 32,892 | $ | 33,628 | 2.0 | % | -0.2 | % | |||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $ | 36,325 | $ | 34,697 | $ | 36,369 | 4.7 | % | -0.1 | % | |||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $ | 36,871 | $ | 37,297 | $ | 36,757 | -1.1 | % | 0.3 | % | |||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $ | 27,297 | $ | 27,278 | $ | 27,674 | 0.1 | % | -1.4 | % | |||||
| Hyundai | $ | 22,837 | $ | 23,825 | $ | 23,081 | -4.1 | % | -1.1 | % | |||||
| Kia | $ | 22,868 | $ | 22,737 | $ | 22,970 | 0.6 | % | -0.4 | % | |||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $ | 27,507 | $ | 26,806 | $ | 27,856 | 2.6 | % | -1.3 | % | |||||
| Subaru | $ | 27,803 | $ | 27,793 | $ | 28,126 | 0.0 | % | -1.2 | % | |||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $ | 31,305 | $ | 31,515 | $ | 31,875 | -0.7 | % | -1.8 | % | |||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $ | 34,224 | $ | 33,779 | $ | 34,048 | 1.3 | % | 0.5 | % | |||||
Industry | $ | 33,112 | $ | 32,809 | $ | 33,131 | 0.9 | % | -0.1 | % | |||||
Incentive per Unit Spending | |||||||||||||||
Manufacturer | Mar. 2017 | Mar. 2016 | Mar. 2017 | Percent Change | Percent | ||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $ | 4,451 | $ | 5,290 | $ | 4,227 | -15.9 | % | 5.3 | % | |||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $ | 4,670 | $ | 4,000 | $ | 4,767 | 16.8 | % | -2.0 | % | |||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $ | 4,482 | $ | 3,982 | $ | 4,583 | 12.6 | % | -2.2 | % | |||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $ | 3,775 | $ | 3,514 | $ | 3,809 | 7.4 | % | -0.9 | % | |||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $ | 4,717 | $ | 4,012 | $ | 4,850 | 17.6 | % | -2.7 | % | |||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $ | 1,863 | $ | 1,604 | $ | 1,853 | 16.2 | % | 0.6 | % | |||||
| Hyundai | $ | 2,580 | $ | 2,008 | $ | 2,591 | 28.5 | % | -0.4 | % | |||||
| Kia | $ | 2,978 | $ | 2,722 | $ | 3,004 | 9.4 | % | -0.9 | % | |||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $ | 3,895 | $ | 3,232 | $ | 4,036 | 20.5 | % | -3.5 | % | |||||
| Subaru | $ | 864 | $ | 595 | $ | 907 | 45.2 | % | -4.8 | % | |||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $ | 2,311 | $ | 1,996 | $ | 2,430 | 15.8 | % | -4.9 | % | |||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $ | 3,922 | $ | 3,443 | $ | 3,995 | 13.9 | % | -1.8 | % | |||||
Industry | $ | 3,465 | $ | 3,041 | $ | 3,556 | 13.9 | % | -2.5 | % | |||||
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP | |||||||||||||||
Manufacturer | Apr. 2017 | Apr. 2016 | Mar. 2017 | Percent Change | Percent | ||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 8.6 | % | 10.2 | % | 8.2 | % | -15.5 | % | 5.2 | % | |||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 7.5 | % | 7.3 | % | 7.9 | % | 3.1 | % | -5.9 | % | |||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 13.4 | % | 12.1 | % | 13.6 | % | 10.3 | % | -2.0 | % | |||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 10.4 | % | 10.1 | % | 10.5 | % | 2.6 | % | -0.8 | % | |||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 12.8 | % | 10.8 | % | 13.2 | % | 18.9 | % | -3.1 | % | |||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 6.8 | % | 5.9 | % | 6.7 | % | 16.1 | % | 2.0 | % | |||||
| Hyundai | 11.3 | % | 8.4 | % | 11.2 | % | 34.0 | % | 0.6 | % | |||||
| Kia | 13.0 | % | 12.0 | % | 13.1 | % | 8.8 | % | -0.4 | % | |||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 14.2 | % | 12.1 | % | 14.5 | % | 17.4 | % | -2.3 | % | |||||
| Subaru | 3.1 | % | 2.1 | % | 3.2 | % | 45.1 | % | -3.7 | % | |||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 7.4 | % | 6.3 | % | 7.6 | % | 16.6 | % | -3.1 | % | |||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 11.5 | % | 10.2 | % | 11.7 | % | 12.4 | % | -2.3 | % | |||||
Industry | 10.5 | % | 9.3 | % | 10.7 | % | 12.9 | % | -2.5 | % | |||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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