ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,529,500 units in May, up 0.3 percent from a year ago and down on a selling day adjusted basis at -3.7 percent.
These figures imply a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.8 million units for May. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to be up 0.5 percent with 1,238,141, units and down on a selling adjusted basis at -3.6 percent.
“Based on five consecutive months of year-over-year sales declines, our revised estimate for full year sales in 2017 is now 17.2 million units, which still represents a robust and healthy sales environment,” said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG.
“Automakers, particularly GM, continue to work through elevated inventory levels with near record incentive spending. However, on a month-over-month basis, automaker discounting is down and fleet mix continues to decline, both signals that the industry is adapting to lower overall sales volumes,” Lyman continued.
Incentive spending is expected to average an estimated $3,435 per automaker in May, up 9.5 percent from a year ago, and down 0.2 percent from April 2017.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 97.7 this month, up from 97.0 in April which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the April unemployment rate which came in at 4.4 percent combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.37 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for May:
- Registration mix is expected to be 81.0 percent retail sales and 19.0 percent fleet versus 80.8 percent retail and 19.2 percent fleet last May.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,227,957, down -5.4 percent from May 2016.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer | May 2017 Forecast | May 2016 | % Change vs. May 2016 | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | ||||||||||||||||
| BMW | 31,300 | 33,685 | -7.1 | % | -10.8 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Daimler | 31,800 | 32,567 | -2.4 | % | -6.3 | % | ||||||||||||||
| FCA | 186,000 | 194,108 | -4.2 | % | -8.0 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Ford | 235,000 | 234,748 | 0.1 | % | -3.9 | % | ||||||||||||||
| GM | 250,000 | 240,450 | 4.0 | % | -0.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Honda | 145,000 | 147,108 | -1.4 | % | -5.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 70,000 | 71,006 | -1.4 | % | -5.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Kia | 62,000 | 62,926 | -1.5 | % | -5.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Nissan | 136,000 | 133,496 | 1.9 | % | -2.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Subaru | 52,500 | 50,083 | 4.8 | % | 0.6 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Toyota | 217,000 | 219,339 | -1.1 | % | -5.0 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 55,800 | 52,291 | 6.7 | % | 2.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
Industry | 1,529,500 | 1,524,987 | 0.3 | % | -3.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | May 2017 Forecast | May 2016 | April 2017 | ||||||||||||||||||
| BMW | 2.0 | % | 2.2 | % | 1.8 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Daimler | 2.1 | % | 2.1 | % | 2.1 | % | |||||||||||||||
| FCA | 12.2 | % | 12.7 | % | 12.4 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Ford | 15.4 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.0 | % | |||||||||||||||
| GM | 16.3 | % | 15.8 | % | 17.1 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Honda | 9.5 | % | 9.6 | % | 9.7 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 4.6 | % | 4.7 | % | 4.3 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Kia | 4.1 | % | 4.1 | % | 3.7 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Nissan | 8.9 | % | 8.8 | % | 8.6 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Subaru | 3.4 | % | 3.3 | % | 3.7 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Toyota | 14.2 | % | 14.4 | % | 14.2 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.6 | % | 3.4 | % | 3.6 | % | |||||||||||||||
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer | May 2017 Forecast | May 2016 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | ||||||||||||||||
| BMW | 30,320 | 32,894 | -7.8 | % | -11.5 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Daimler | 30,100 | 30,819 | -2.3 | % | -6.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
| FCA | 145,000 | 154,915 | -6.4 | % | -10.1 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Ford | 155,000 | 153,895 | 0.7 | % | -3.3 | % | ||||||||||||||
| GM | 193,000 | 183,394 | 5.2 | % | 1.0 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Honda | 143,463 | 145,573 | -1.4 | % | -5.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 48,985 | 47,653 | 2.8 | % | -1.3 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Kia | 47,415 | 46,313 | 2.4 | % | -1.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Nissan | 101,000 | 100,116 | 0.9 | % | -3.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Subaru | 47,859 | 45,314 | 5.6 | % | 1.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Toyota | 195,178 | 197,369 | -1.1 | % | -5.1 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 51,700 | 47,794 | 8.2 | % | 3.8 | % | ||||||||||||||
Industry | 1,238,141 | 1,232,431 | 0.5 | % | -3.6 | % | ||||||||||||||
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Incentive per Unit May 2017 Forecast | Incentive per Unit May 2016 | Incentive per Unit Apr 2017 | Incentive per Unit % Change vs. May 2016 | Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Apr 2017 | Total Spending May 2017 Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMW | $ | 4,550 | $ | 5,724 | $ | 4,424 | -20.5 | % | 2.8 | % | $ | 141,960,143 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Daimler | $ | 4,511 | $ | 4,737 | $ | 4,557 | -4.8 | % | -1.0 | % | $ | 143,434,345 | ||||||||||||||||||
| FCA | $ | 4,250 | $ | 4,115 | $ | 4,359 | 3.3 | % | -2.5 | % | $ | 781,985,668 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Ford | $ | 4,090 | $ | 3,596 | $ | 4,114 | 13.7 | % | -0.6 | % | $ | 961,253,655 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GM | $ | 4,255 | $ | 4,057 | $ | 4,238 | 4.9 | % | 0.4 | % | $ | 1,063,836,690 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Honda | $ | 1,833 | $ | 1,756 | $ | 1,809 | 4.4 | % | 1.3 | % | $ | 265,759,279 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | $ | 3,166 | $ | 2,104 | $ | 3,135 | 50.5 | % | 1.0 | % | $ | 221,602,176 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Kia | $ | 3,240 | $ | 2,734 | $ | 3,247 | 18.5 | % | -0.2 | % | $ | 200,891,362 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nissan | $ | 3,867 | $ | 3,242 | $ | 3,903 | 19.3 | % | -0.9 | % | $ | 525,958,575 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subaru | $ | 969 | $ | 610 | $ | 957 | 58.9 | % | 1.3 | % | $ | 50,896,461 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Toyota | $ | 2,323 | $ | 2,176 | $ | 2,346 | 6.8 | % | -1.0 | % | $ | 504,187,371 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | $ | 4,075 | $ | 3,605 | $ | 4,008 | 13.0 | % | 1.7 | % | $ | 226,630,331 | ||||||||||||||||||
Industry | $ | 3,435 | $ | 3,138 | $ | 3,443 | 9.5 | % | -0.2 | % | $ | 5,231,570,052 | ||||||||||||||||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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