Earnings season kicks into high gear this week, with news from the likes of Apple, Citigroup, Intel, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, GE, Microsoft and a slew more big hitters. The economic slate is littered with housing news, manufacturing updates and an inflation check. Find the full schedule for the latest week here below.
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Week Ahead – Earnings Hit High Gear
The week leads off with a pair of interesting manufacturing data points. Doubts have emerged of late regarding just how long export demand can sustain the American manufacturing sector. Thus the latest data will be closely scrutinized.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has produced a negative result in each of the last four months, with the latest index measurement marking negative 8.82 for September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the index improving, but remaining in negative territory in October at minus 3.25, based on the consensus average.
Also before the bell, look for the latest Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. Last month’s report covering August showed a 0.2% increase in industrial production, a rate of growth much moderated from July’s 0.9%. According to Barron’s, economists see production capacity increasing another 0.2% in September. I think it may prove to be wishful thinking, and it’ll be interesting to see if last month’s slowdown evolves into this month’s contraction. Industrial Capacity Utilization is seen improving to 77.5%, up from 77.4%, based on Barron’s data.
After protests in 1,000 cities over the weekend, Portugal’s Parliament receives a draft 2012 budget to review.
The Value Investing Congress in New York City highlights presentations by Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman, Kynikos’ Jim Chanos, Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn and many other heavy hitters. A bankruptcy court determines whether a Chapter 11 trustee will run Solyndra.
Fed men, Jeffrey Lacker and Charles Evans, are scheduled to speak at separate events Monday evening.
Fresh pricing data is due Tuesday morning, with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September at 8:30 AM. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see prices up 0.3% in September, following no change in August. When excluding food and energy, the economists’ outlook is for a lesser 0.1% rate of growth, matching the prior month rate. Demand destruction is coming into play more and more, and should China crash and crumble, the deflation scenario would only be exacerbated.
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke addresses a conference hosted by the Boston Fed Tuesday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Geithner testifies before the Senate on the Small Business Jobs Act. Dennis Lockhart gives an address of his own in the evening. Overseas, the Bank of England ‘s Mervyn King presents policy before the Institute of Directors.
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) data is due for the month of August at 9:00 AM Tuesday. Last month’s data showed a modest net increase in the foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities (+$24.6 billon).
The latest Housing Market Index is up for report at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This metric is a barometer of the homebuilder mood, and economists on average see the index moving up to a mark of 15 in October, up from 14 in September.
The latest take on retail same-store sales will reach the wire before the market open Tuesday. Last week’s reports from the ICSC showed week-over-week sales fell 0.1% in the period ending October 8. The year-over-year sales rate was down to 2.8%, versus 3.7% the week before. Redbook showed year-over-year sales at 4.8% (Redbook is always higher).
Yet another Republican debate dots the calendar for Tuesday evening.
The 8:30 AM reporting of Consumer Prices for the month of September keys Wednesday’s wire. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen up 0.3% by Bloomberg’s consensus of economists, a more moderated rate than the August pace of 0.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to increase by 0.2%, against the same rate of growth seen in August.
Also at 8:30 AM ET, look for the latest Housing Starts data. Bloomberg’s consensus sees Starts up to an annual pace of 590K in September, up from the 571K pace set in August. Building Permits are seen running at an annual rate of 620K, the same as measured in August.
Sticking with real estate, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will also report in the morning. The MBA’s weekly take on mortgage activity is due. Last week’s report covering the week ending October 7 showed the Market Composite Index of activity rose 1.3% over the preceding period.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM Wednesday. Fed speakers litter the schedule for the day as well, with speeches due from Eric Rosengren and Dennis Lockhart. The Bank of England is due to publish the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting.
The EIA Petroleum Status Report is due for the period ending October 14. In the prior week, crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels and remains in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline stores fell by 4.1 million barrels last week, but remains in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Greece will see a general strike of its population Wednesday.
The World Series starts in the U.S., a nice break for neurotic American investors and political pundits.
Look for the latest Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 Thursday morning. Last week’s report showed little change, with claims running at 404K. Economists see little change this week too, with the consensus view marking 400K, according to Bloomberg.
At 9:45 AM, we’ll get a new look at the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. Last week, it deteriorated to -50.8, very close to its historical low mark.
At 10:00 AM ET, look for the Existing Home Sales report for the month of September. Economists expect the annual pace of sales slipped to 4.93 million, from the 5.03 million rate measured in August.
Also at 10:00 AM, the Philadelphia Fed Survey measures its recently volatile General Business Conditions Index. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast an improvement to a still bad minus 9.8 mark in October, improved from minus 17.5 at last check.
Again at 10:00, the latest Leading Indicators Index check is set for September. Economists see the LEI rising 0.3% through the month, matching the gain made in August. I think we should be wary here, as a lower mark seems possible; economists’ views ranged widely, from -0.3% to +0.5%.
At 10:30, the EIA’s Natural Gas Report reaches the wire. Last week, the report covering the period ending October 7 showed natural gas stores increased by 112 Bcf, to a level that was 68 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.
The day’s Fed speakers include Sandra Pianalto, James Bullard, Daniel Tarullo and Narayana Kocherlakota.
Friday is short of economic reports, however, in Europe, things are dangerously active. The European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF conclude a 10-day visit and review of Ireland’s bailout program. Also, EU finance ministers are meeting ahead of a coming EU summit.
Fed speakers Janet Yellen and Narayana Kocherlakota will have more to say Friday in two separate addresses.
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