Tuesday, April 17, 9:25 a.m.
Global stock markets were barraged with worries from all sides yesterday.
From Asia it was that China’s economic slowdown continues. Although its PMI index ticked up in April it remained under 50 for the 6th straight month, indicating contraction.
![[CECON]](http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/AI-BS325_CECON_NS_20120422230603.jpg)
Meanwhile 63% of Chinese companies that have reported 1st quarter earnings so far, have reported declining profits or outright losses as a result of slowing economic growth.
From Europe it was that the PMI Manufacturing Index of the 17-nation euro-zone contracted at a faster pace than forecasts in April, falling from 47.7 in March to 46.0 in April, its lowest level in 34 months, and versus the consensus forecast of an improvement to 48.1. The Services PMI fell from 49.2 in March to 47.9 in April, a five-month low, and defying the consensus forecast of an improvement to 49.3.
And the euro-zone debt crisis is facing new problems.
It was bad enough that the crisis seems to be spreading to Spain, but now the Dutch government has fallen, its Prime Minister becoming the latest to be forced to resign when he could not win enough support for austerity measures aimed at cutting the country’s budget deficit. It follows the collapse of the governments of Greece and Italy, and the resignations last winter of their Prime Ministers, over similar failures to win support for the German-led austerity measures demanded by the IMF and ECB.
And now worries are rising about the election this month in Greece to replace its interim government. Indications are that the election may be so divided that it will result in political instability that will put the latest bailout plan for Greece in jeopardy. Opposition leaders had already warned they may demand a re-negotiation of the terms of the bailout agreement if they win the election.
And the outlook for the presidential election in France is also raising concerns that France’s agreement to German-led austerity measures for the 17-nation eurozone may be in jeopardy.
The Short-term Pattern Continues to Work Out.
Three weeks ago the market reacted in its usual historical pattern to a surprise in the jobs report. That is for an initial one to two-day triple-digit move by the Dow in one direction or the other, that is usually followed by a reversal of the move over the subsequent day or two.
And the typical pattern around options expirations worked out, the week before the expirations week (two weeks ago) tending to be down, and then the week of the expirations, which was last week, tending to be positive.
And now we have the week after the expirations, which tends to be negative, down so far anyway.
Market charts & indicators are interesting, globally and in the U.S.
To read my weekend newspaper column ‘Beware of Defensive Stock Advice’ Click here
Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is a hotline from Friday night, and the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow. There is also an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update from last Tuesday in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website. , versus the consensus forecast that it would be up 0.3%.
Yesterday in the U.S. Market.
A down day, but with a considerable recovery by the close. The Dow was down 185 points in the first hour but recovered with considerable volatility over the rest of the day to close down 102 points.
The Dow closed down 102 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 also closed down 0.8%. The NYSE Composite closed down 1.1%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.5%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.9%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.5%.
Gold closed down $4 an ounce at $1,638 an ounce.
Oil closed down $.81 a barrel at $103.07 a barrel.
The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.3%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.7%.
Yesterday in European Markets.European markets plunged very sharply yesterday. London closed down 1.9%. Germany plunged 3.4%. France closed down 2.8%.
Asian Markets Were Down Sunday Night and Mixed Last Night.The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed down 0.6% Sunday night, and down 0.3% last night.
Among individual markets last night:
Australia closed up 0.1%. China closed unchanged. Hong Kong closed up 0.3%. India closed up 0.7%. Indonesia closed up 0.4%. Japan closed down 0.8%. Malaysia closed down 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.2%. South Korea closed down 0.5%. Singapore closed up 0.4%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%.
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Markets This Morning:
European markets are trying to rally this morning after yesterday’s big declines. But the London FTSE is up only 0.1%. Germany’s DAX is up 0.1%. France’s CAC is up 0.9%
Oil is up $.20 a barrel at $103.12.
Gold is up $4 an ounce at $1,642.
This Morning in the U.S. Market:This week will be a very heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports, including New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, the Fed’s FOMC economic forecasts, etc. To see the full list and times for each release click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
There were no reports yesterday.
This morning’s report so far was the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed home-prices fell sharply in February to a nearly 10-year low.
Still to come today are New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, the FHFA House Price Index, and the Richmond Fed’s Mfg Index, all to be released at 10 a.m.
But the market is trying to ignore the dismal economic news to concentrate on 1st quarter earnings, and trying to bounce back from recent losses.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 25 points or so in the early going.
To read my weekend newspaper column ‘Beware of Defensive Stock Advice’ Click here
Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is a hotline from Friday night, and the new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow. There is also an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update from last Tuesday in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website. , versus the consensus forecast that it would be up 0.3%.
I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.
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