The Economist Intelligence Unit expects global economic growth to slow to 3.1% this year from 3.8% in 2011, before rising to 3.9% in 2013. Most of the growth is expected to come from outside the OECD countries.
Key changes in the EIU’s world forecast since December include:
- The Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for economic growth in the US in 2012 to 1.8%, from 1.3%.
Despite weakening external demand from Europe and Asia and continuing stresses at home, the US economy has been resilient.
- Job growth in the US has accelerated, consumer confidence is improving and households are starting to borrow again. The housing market also shows tentative signs of recovery, and austerity measures by state and local governments are easing.
- The EIU raised its forecast for the average 2012 price of dated Brent crude oil to $100/barrel from $95/b. It increased its expectation of oil consumption growth in 2012 in tandem with the upward revision to our US GDP forecast and signs that China’s economy will avoid a hard landing.
- Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, which have heightened in recent weeks, will also push up prices in the first quarter, and could cause a catastrophic spike if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz and the US responds militarily.
For details see Country Forecast World February 2012