Exclusive Analysis Ltd released the Q3 edition of its Foresight Quarterly Journal.
This latest instalment highlights key risks and for corporate social responsibility managers, investors, risk managers and corporate security directors in the year ahead. It is available for purchase through Exclusive Analysis.
A full list of the pieces is below, some with expanded detail. To get in touch with one of the authors or for more information, please use contact details at the end of this release.
China: Opening Up to Sustain Growth -
As a new generation of Chinese Communist Party leaders assume power this autumn, their main challenge will be to revive a slowing economy against a backdrop of high rates of non-performing loans in local government lenders and banks. Exclusive Analysis believes the measures they are likely to take will facilitate foreign investment in local lenders and of offshore renminbi in China. Foreign firms are likely to see tax reductions and investment opportunities, but closures in the manufacturing sectors are likely to result in supply chain disruption and labour unrest.
The Putin Presidency: Between Reform, Stagnation and Collapse -
Head of Eurasia Forecasting Alisa Lockwood describes the structure of political power in Russia’s next presidency and notes that, “Putin’s administration, as well as its policy direction, is vulnerable to rifts within the elite and loss of the support from the working class.” Lockwood examines possible game changers and highlights vulnerabilities that could impact businesses operating in the country in the one-year outlook.
Greece: Exiting the Euro -
Director of Political Risk Forecasting and Eurozone Crisis Team Leader Ade Onitolo states, “Greece is almost certain to default on its debts again in the next six months, and remains likely to exit the Eurozone in the next 12 months.” In his piece, Ade assesses the features of a disorderly default and exit as well as an orderly exit process choreographed by Eurozone leaders.
Venezuela: The Road to Succession and Its Implications for Business -
With President Chavez suffering from what may be terminal cancer, Head of Latin America Forecasting Carlos Caicedo maps what the political landscape would look like after he leaves office. Caicedo assess the three leading candidates and assesses risks of nationalisation, the outlook for price and exchange controls and what the restructuring of PDVSA would mean.
Sierra Leone: Social Risk for Energy Sector Development -
Specialising in Corporate Social Responsibility and External Affairs, Forecasting Director Nathalie Wlodarczyk examines how companies can mitigate project delays stemming from local activists, legal challenges or violence. She uses the Pujehun district in Sierra Leone as a case study and describes how to map power dynamics in a specific location. In Pujehun she concluded that social risk is largely dependent on personalities and relationships between local and regional stakeholders as well as local perception, which is driven by the community’s frames of reference.
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Original Source: 'Foresight Quarterly' Highlights Risks to China, Greece, Venezuela and Russia