Global markets marked green ground Friday, perhaps as part of a healing process after a difficult slew of trading sessions. The move appears to be more technical in nature than fundamental, given that today’s economic data was mildly to mostly disappointing. And the fact that it took a European ban on short-selling to stop the hemorrhaging in its banks is neither heartwarming, however helpful.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
Healing Markets Define Friday Trading Despite New Wounds
Consumer Mood Sours The University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment data for August produced a major downer for the market this morning. The consumer mood measure soured to an index mark of 54.9, down from 63.7 last month. Economists were looking for deterioration, but only to a mark of 63.0. Stocks turned lower after the near 10:00 AM release, but have kept in the green through the morning.
Retail Sales July’s Retail Sales rose more than over recent months, but at 0.5%, still fell short of economists’ expectations for a 0.6% increase. Still, it was enough for an embattled market that the gain marked a significant improvement over June’s 0.1% rise. The economists’ range of forecasts spanned from 0.1% to 1.5%, so it appears more were disappointed than satisfied. Excluding autos, economists were largely satisfied, as the 0.5% segmented increase exceeded their 0.3% growth forecast, based on Bloomberg’s survey.
Manufacturing and Trade Data We have been noting inventory growth exceeding that of sales across Wholesale, Business and Retail trade, so we were focused on this morning’s “Business Trade” data. The report measures the activity of Manufacturers and Trade businesses. Thankfully, June’s data showed a change in trend, with sales growth of 0.4% exceeding inventory creep of 0.3%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast an inventory increase of 0.6%, against the 1.0% increase in May, so the data was generally a positive.
Dudley on Jobs The New York Fed’s Bill Dudley spoke Friday on the regional job picture, and you can find his remarks here.
Overseas Just as tensions grew about European banks, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) swiftly responded with a ban on short sales in Spain, Italy, France and Belgium. Nobody noticed how this mitigated the SocGen (OTC: SCGLY.PK) crisis, which might otherwise have mimicked the downfall of Lehman Brothers (sort of), but yours truly. I applaud the Europeans for one of few insightful maneuvers they’ve managed so far, which may stave off intensified crisis for now.
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