As previously discussed, there is virtually no political support to leave the euro,
as it’s not intuitively obvious the euro is the problem.
It is intuitively obvious, however, that the problem was irresponsible govt
and so the move towards responsible govt- aka austerity- continues.
The euro economy can be easily ‘fixed’ and in short order.
The ECB can, one way or another, facilitate all funding needs and end the solvency issue.
And the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) can be modified to allow deficits sufficient to sustain aggregate demand.
Currently Germany continues to be obstructing the elimination of the solvency issue,
even as market forces are now begining to weaken German bonds.
And there are no member nations yet supporting readjusting the SGP to allow higher deficits.
So my best guess is Germany will soon recognize what most of the financial community has recently been voicing- ECB bond buying combined with austerity is not inflationary- opening the door to the ECB bond buying being an EU sanctioned policy of the institutional structure to ensure solvency.
That will trigger a massive ‘relief rally’ that will fade as the reality of the depressing nature of the
austerity takes over.
It could also sideline the discussion of Greek haircuts and default discussion in general.Spanish Voters Set to Throw Out Socialists in Election
November 20 (Reuters) — Spaniards are expected to throw out the Socialists they blame for a disastrous economic situation in an election on Sunday and to vote in a center-right party likely to dole out more bitter medicine in the form of public spending cuts.
Opinion polls show the People’s Party (PP), led by Mariano Rajoy, has an unassailable lead over the ruling Socialists, who have led the country from boom to bust in seven years in power.
Voters are angry with the Socialists for failing to act swiftly to prevent the economic slide and then for bringing in austerity measures that have cut wages, benefits and jobs.
Yet people are now resigned to further slashes in spending on health and education in the midst of a European debt crisis that has toppled the governments of Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy and pushed Spain’s borrowing costs ever higher.