Research and Markets: Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009

Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a0fa75/canada_oil_and_gas) has announced the addition of the "Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009" report to their offering.

Canada Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's oil and gas industry

The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.44% of North American regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 34.25% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 21.78mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to ease to around 21.66mn b/d by 2013. North American regional oil production in 2008 averaged an estimated 10.19mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.95mn b/d by 2013.

In terms of natural gas, North America in 2008 consumed an estimated 755bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 807bcm targeted for 2013, representing 6.9% growth. Production of an estimated 731bcm in 2008 should ease to 726bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. Canada's share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 12.63%, while it contributed 25.31% to regional production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 12.79%, with 25.62% of regional supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.

For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.

Canadian real GDP is now forecast by BMI to fall by 2.9% in 2009, compared with growth of an estimated 0.5% in 2008. We are assuming an average annual 2.4% growth in 2009-13. The country's oil demand is expected to average 2.18mn b/d in 2009, before rising to 2.26mn b/d by 2013. Oil output looks set to reach 3.75mn b/d by 2013, subject to oil sands development. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) predicts that oil sands production will reach 3.5mn b/d by 2015 and 4.0mn b/d by 2020, accounting for more than 80% of Canadian oil production.

Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 23.46%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.24mn b/d in 2008 to 4.00mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given oil consumption forecast to increase by 2.11%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.01mn b/d to 1.72mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2008 level of 185bcm to 168bcm in 2018. Demand is forecast to rise from 95bcm to 111bcm, leaving net exports falling to 57bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

BMI's long-term political risk rating for Canada is 94.3, well above the Developed Markets average of 85.8, and behind only Norway. Our long-term economic risk rating is 69.9, which compares with a Developed Markets average of 69.3 and puts Canada well ahead of the US and most developed European countries. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor agreed to acquire for CAD19.6bn (US$15.9bn) in March 2009.

Key Topics Covered:

SWOT Analysis

• Canada Political SWOT
• Canada Economic SWOT

Canada Energy Market Overview

Regional Energy Market Overview

• Oil Supply And Demand
• Oil: Downstream
• Gas Supply And Demand
• Liquefied Natural Gas

Industry Forecast Scenario

• Oil And Gas Reserves
• Oil Supply And Demand
• Gas Supply And Demand
• LNG
• Refining And Oil Products Trade
• Revenues/Import Costs
• Other Energy
• Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
• Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook

Macroeconomic Outlook

Competitive Landscape

Glossary of Terms

Companies Mentioned:

• Suncor/Petro-Canada
• Shell Canada
• EnCana
• ConocoPhillips
• Chevron
• Devon Energy
• Syncrude
• BP
• Husky
• Imperial Oil
• StatoilHydro
• Total
• Murphy Oil
• Nexen
• Occidental
• Gazprom

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a0fa75/canada_oil_and_gas