Big Pharma – Where Are We Now?
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post. In this article, I want to revisit an article I wrote two years ago titled, " The Calm Before the Storm. "  My article was focused on the patent cliff that was looming, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers !  Subsequent articles were about big pharma companies, their revenue streams, and the pros and cons of much of their later stage pipeline.   My other articles have noted smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big rewards, and possible acquisition candidates by those big pharma companies that need to fill their coffers with new, multi-billion dollar drugs -the so called blockbusters. Forbes has a good article projected three different scenarios, but the one that stands out to me is the last figure (below) showing if all things adding up together, who weathers the storm? In the 'Storm' article, it is noted that pharma growth rates should be growing less or starting to stall into 2014 due to the patent cliffs (see Table 1).  A few examples slow growing revenue streams are (2010 -2011): Pfizer $67.1B to $67.4B; Merck $46B to $48B, JNJ $62B to $62B, and AMGN $15.1 to $15.5. Table 1. Patent Cliff 2010 – 2012 Company Drug Indication Sales in $B (2009) Patent Expiration Pfizer/Eisai Aricept Alzheimer’s 1 2010 Merck Cozaar Hypertension 3.6 2010 Pfizer Lipitor Cholesterol 12.5 2011 JnJ Levaquin Antibiotic 1.5 2011 Sanofi/BMS Plavix Anticoagulant 9.3 2011 AstraZeneca Seroquel Antipsychotic 4.9 2011 Lilly Zyprexa Antipsychotic 4.9 2011 Merck Singulair Asthma 4.7 2012 Forest Labs/Lundbenk Lexapro Antidepressant 2.3 2012 AstraZeneca Symbicort Asthma 2.3 2012 Novartis Diovan Hypertension 2.9 2012       49.9   There are two ways that pharma companies can grow, acquisitions or internal innovation.  In…

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, I want to revisit an article I wrote two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  My article was focused on the patent cliff that was looming, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were about big pharma companies, their revenue streams, and the pros and cons of much of their later stage pipeline.   My other articles have noted smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big rewards, and possible acquisition candidates by those big pharma companies that need to fill their coffers with new, multi-billion dollar drugs -the so called blockbusters.

Forbes has a good article projected three different scenarios, but the one that stands out to me is the last figure (below) showing if all things adding up together, who weathers the storm?

In the 'Storm' article, it is noted that pharma growth rates should be growing less or starting to stall into 2014 due to the patent cliffs (see Table 1).  A few examples slow growing revenue streams are (2010 -2011): Pfizer $67.1B to $67.4B; Merck $46B to $48B, JNJ $62B to $62B, and AMGN $15.1 to $15.5.

Table 1. Patent Cliff 2010 – 2012
CompanyDrugIndicationSales in $B (2009)Patent Expiration
Pfizer/EisaiAriceptAlzheimer’s12010
MerckCozaarHypertension3.62010
PfizerLipitorCholesterol12.52011
JnJLevaquinAntibiotic1.52011
Sanofi/BMSPlavixAnticoagulant9.32011
AstraZenecaSeroquelAntipsychotic4.92011
LillyZyprexaAntipsychotic4.92011
MerckSingulairAsthma4.72012
Forest Labs/LundbenkLexaproAntidepressant2.32012
AstraZenecaSymbicortAsthma2.32012
NovartisDiovanHypertension2.92012
   49.9 

There are two ways that pharma companies can grow, acquisitions or internal innovation.  In…
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