"TLT, UUP, CMG, GLD, UGL, AGQ, SLV, UCO ", "Lowest Home mortgage rates", "
Posted on September 26, 2011 at 15:02 PM EDT


Feds said "there is a significant downside risk to the economy"  last week and the markets took that to their chin. We saw similar statements highlighting the risks to the economy from ECB, IMF, World Bank and Credit agencies. The beneficiaries were the US Dollar, US treasuries at the long end and the VIX.

Most world economies have declined more than 20% YTD. Emerging markets declined more severely in August than developed economies. The US indexes have not reached 20% decline, but can they stand alone in this state of affairs?

Home mortgage rates are seeing historically low values - hopefully the underwater home owners can make use of the opportunities available. Until some new programs come out, FHA loans should still be available as a last resort - that is for some one not on Freddie/fannie loan currently.

Though the economic reports shows nothing very dire, the markets continues to get spooked by the sovereign debts and by the statements of the world economic leaders. The main laggards of the US economy are the Unemployment & Housing. Housing led the markets to recovery, but this time around that is hard to expect.

Existing Home sales surged in August, but the Case Schiller index to be reported this week can corroborate that data point. With mortgage rates lower, this can be expected.


Last week's (week over week) market Sectors Returns and Internals:
  • SP 500:  -6.54%
  • Volatility Index % change, VIX = 21.07%
  • Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.57%
  • 10 year Treasury yield = 1.97%
  • Small Cap (IWM): -9.49%
  • Latin America (ILF): -12.4%
  • Europe (IEV): -9.16%
  • Emerging Markets (EEM): -13.77%

  • Commodities (DBC): -1.06%
  • Long term Bonds (TLT): 9.69%
  • US Dollar Index, 8 DMA: 77.47
  • Gold, (GLD) change: -3.79%
  •  
  • Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index = 0.79
  • Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
  • NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA = -243.72

Next Week's economic calendar:
  • Case Schiller 20 city Index - 9/27
  • MBA Mortgage Index - 9/28
  • GDP 3rd estimate - 9/29
  • Chicago PMI - 9/30
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