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Finance Business   Breaking Ranks: Former Broker Turns Bomb Thrower @reformedbroker interview previews his book: $$ Feb 24, 2012 Why CLO managers continue to struggle Low issuance, warehousing is tough, need more subordination, fewer senior buyers Feb 24, 2012 My Favorite Quote from Baupost’s 2011 Annual Letter DIstressed bond mgrs get [...]

Finance Business


  • Breaking Ranks: Former Broker Turns Bomb Thrower @reformedbroker interview previews his book: $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • Why CLO managers continue to struggle Low issuance, warehousing is tough, need more subordination, fewer senior buyers Feb 24, 2012
  • My Favorite Quote from Baupost’s 2011 Annual Letter DIstressed bond mgrs get itchy in bull phase & buy new junk @ par Feb 24, 2012
  • SEC IFRS Plan Endorsement IFRS is not worth giving up comparability or sovereignty for. Project is a total loser. $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • Very cool, congrats RT @Finovate: @AlphaClone to offer Alternative Alpha ETF from U.S. Bancorp Feb 23, 2012
  • SEC May Ticket Speeding Traders Worthy of an experiment like the kind they did to study the “uptick rule” $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • AQR’s Aaron Brown on Red-Blooded Risk When I was a bond mgr, could sense some aspects of risk listening 2 broker’s tone Feb 23, 2012
  • The Volcker Rule is not going to bring your house back Prop trading was not a leading cause of the financial crisis. $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • Pimco Said to Quit Mortgage Bond Group Feels wrong parties (their clients) r paying 4 bad servicing,instead of banks Feb 23, 2012
  •  If you want, I can dig up an old research piece on analyst coverage — there are basically 3 factors that explain 70… Feb 21, 2012
  • Stressed VAR is still a “protractor in the jungle” Risk management sh/not b done w/central measures but stress tests $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • How One Company Teaches Employees the ABCs of Finance More companies should do this, they would b more profitable. $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Gross Fund at 66% Premium Shows Pimco Allure in Quest for Yield Yield illusion distracts many investors. Avoid it. $$ Feb 17, 2012
  • Read:Which three of DOL’s new 401(k) rules represent the biggest land mines for financial advisors and plan sponsors? Feb 15, 2012
  • The 400% Man Wish I could meet some of his disappointed investors who came to kick the tires and were disappointed. Feb 15, 2012
  • Contra:Foot-Dragging on IFRS Decision Could Strip SEC of Power The US could lose representation on IASB. Good, drop out Feb 14, 2012
  • Notes from iGlobal’s Global Distressed Investing Summit: Part 2 Leveraged loan market seems to be in decent shape $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • Pimco: $25 Billion Foreclosure Deal to Hit Pensions Harder Than Banks Gives MBS buyers a reason 2 sue originators $$ Feb 13, 2012
  • Missing at MF: $1.6 Billion Included for the 1st time is roughly $700 million in client money residing in the UK $$ Feb 13, 2012
  • Stockbrokers: A Guide to Private Placement Due Diligence Illiquid investments are ways to cheat average people. $$ Feb 11, 2012
  • Why illiquid? Can’t recover the commission otherwise.  Can deceive people that their investment is worth more than it… Feb 11, 2012


Market Strategy


  • Jim Stack was right, and he’s still bullish Basically a forward P/E plus momentum argument, & lack of sharp falls $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • S&P 500 Gets 9% Cheaper on Record Profits Makes a P/E argument; profit mrgns will eventually revert, may take a while Feb 23, 2012
  • The dangers of dividend-paying stocks Hint: they are stocks. No maturity date, no certain cash flow, low BK priority $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • Falkenblog: Low Vol Commodity Timing Strategy Low volatility seems to work in a large number of areas, this is one $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • Retro Investing—Look Back to Get Ahead The 50s, w/post-WWII financial repression, recurs as a current investing meme $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • The Intelligent Investor: Are Index Funds Messing Up the Markets? May also be traders following each other $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • If history is any indication, high dividend stock outperformance should continue Uses 40s & 50s as analogy $$ Feb 20, 2012
  • Breakout or consolidation? Many market seem to be at inflection points. Which way will they go? Wildcards: EZone, China Feb 20, 2012
  • RE: @alea_ Interesting analysis.  I would be wary of teasing too much out of the cluster analysis of sector correlati… Feb 18, 2012
  • MORGAN STANLEY: January Exhibited This Tell-Tale Sign Of A Market Top When everything rises at once, look out! $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Apple Stock May Not Be as Cheap as It Looks Earnings quality has declined, and so has the PE multiple $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • @ampressman Common summary stat 4 acctg quality 4 $AAPL Net Operating Accruals / Assets, has been deteriorating 4 last 7 years + Feb 18, 2012
  • @ampressman $AAPL acctg used to be very conservative, now modestly liberal by that statistic. It’s a bad direction, not a bad position, yet Feb 18, 2012
  • Should the Rich Invest Like Colleges? Better question: what are your goals? Do you have an infinite horizon? $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • High Yield Bonds as Equity Indicator | The Reformed Broker Meet my friends & former colleagues Ed Meigs & Sean Slein $$ Feb 17, 2012
  • When Earnings Slow, Focus on Big Cap, Quality High quality is the place to be at present, credit cycle shifting some $$ Feb 16, 2012
  • A Lesser Known Indicator Cash enters market through IPOs, employee grants, & exits through cash buyouts, buybacks $$ Feb 16, 2012
  • Parabolas have 2 end somewhere $$ RT @ReformedBroker: $AAPL sold off because people were getting impatient with how slowly it was moving up. Feb 15, 2012
  • FPA Capital’s Bryan Beats Peers Embracing Oil Volatility A clever focus on absolute retruns, w/a long horizon $$ Feb 15, 2012
  • Paulson Gives Activism a Go Not as easy as it looks w/ $HIG. Acctg may not fairly capture variable liabilities $$ Feb 15, 2012
  • RE: @SoberLook DB hedges its bets.  Average years rarely happen in high yield, they are either good or bad. Feb 14, 2012
  • THE 1987 MYTH…. “Illusion of stability within disequilibrium” Very well said, in one short phrase. $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • America Inc. Faces Margin Stall US companies have begun to see rising costs eat into the bottom line. Finally. $$ Feb 13, 2012
  • Hulbert: Insiders Selling at Heavy Pace Just another straw blowing in the wind, but insiders usually have good sense $$ Feb 10, 2012




  • Greek PSI outcomes tree: credit event probability at 93% Clever grraphic shows high likelihood of Gk CDS triggering. $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • The market is now pricing in Greek sovereign CDS trigger Upfront prices for Greek CDS moving up $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Despite Pact, Unease Lingers for Greece “Many Problems Remain Even Under Best-Case Scenarios” Shrink, shrink… $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Greek Rescue Is Not the End of the Story Won’t save Greece on its own & there r other fringe nations 2 deal with $$ Feb 20, 2012
  • ECB Greek Plan May Hurt Bondholders While Triggering Debt Swaps ECB may get better treaqtment than private holders $$ Feb 20, 2012
  • So, what would your plan for Greece be? Play the game, and let Keynes sneer @ u as u attempt 2 solve the impossible $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Greek Economy Shrinking Rapidly And it may shrink more rapidly depending on what the rest of Europe does $$ Feb 14, 2012




  • ECB’s Mario Draghi magic corrupts bond markets Banks become dependent on ECB, bank bondholders more subordinated $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • European Banks May Tap ECB for $629 Billion Cash “There is a ‘lose-lose’ air around the ECB’s auction next week,” $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • The Eurozone should be prepared for a new government in France And that govt will be more hostile to current actions $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Spain Sinks Deeper Into Periphery on Debt Rise As debts grow higher, the probability of escape gets lower. $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Iron Lady Merkel Bucks German Street on Greek Aid Strategy working 4 now, but what if colleagues lose their seats? $$ Feb 20, 2012
  • Moody’s Cuts European Sovereigns Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Malta all cut. France & UK -> neg outlook Feb 15, 2012
  • Unlisted in euroland Didn’t catch this in Jan. Private bonds can offered 2 ECB as collateral; helps French banks $$ Feb 13, 2012


The Well-off Fringe Nations


  • Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness If the debt problem is not severe, austerity. If it is severe (Iceland) default Feb 22, 2012
  • Nordic Currencies Stung in Crisis Much of the world, looking for a store of value, drive fringe currencies up $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • Canada housing market: poised 4 ‘severe correction,’ George Athanassakos says Canada is used to the boom/bust cycle $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • @joshuademasi You’re right, but most of the fringe currencies are facing the same dilemma; who to favor, consumers vs exporters, etc… $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • Israel Safest as Investors Discount War Threat Well-capitalized banks & balanced economy w/much high tech $$ #warrisk Feb 20, 2012
  • A hedge fund bets big on a Canadian mega quarry Property rights r tough here. What if an existing farmer tried this? $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Australia’s Gillard Urged to Increase Mortgage Purchases A mistake, far better to let the market fail. $$ Feb 17, 2012
  • You’re right, reminds me of an old piece I wrote: Thanks $$ RT @joshuademasi: The 5 stages of USD grieving ! Feb 15, 2012
  • Norway’s Rate Policy Dilemma Pits Household Debt Against Krone ‘Headache’ Cut rates, asset bubble grows, Krone weakens Feb 15, 2012





  • Plan B for China’s Wealthy: Moving to the U.S., Europe Wealthy Chinese know their govt, thus the need for flight $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • China’s FDI and Trade Outlook Horrible Says Commerce Spokesperson Hard 4 Comm Party 2command domestic consumption up $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • ‘Mother of all bubbles’ will pop China stocks: GMO Low prob: China successfully navigating soft landing out of a bubble Feb 18, 2012
  • China’s excess exports turn negative Key Q: how will China grow its economy by stimulating domestic consumption? $$ #uh Feb 18, 2012
  • Too many bearish on China, but I’m bearish also.  What to do? Seek out China bulls.  If their arguments sound dumb, d… Feb 17, 2012
  • The Silent Victims of the U.S.-China Currency War Smaller nations get caught in crossfire of competitive devaluation $$ Feb 17, 2012
  • China’s Military Spending to Double by 2015 I think it take some losses before DC takes this seriously. $$ Feb 17, 2012
  • China’s Tenuous Hold on Peace Tibet is restive, China blames its problems on the economic mismanagement of foreigners Feb 14, 2012
  • Glimpses of a Chinese Town Under Lockdown some reporters managed to get there to document the heavy security presence Feb 14, 2012
  • Liu Mingkang Outlines the Reforms China needs to Undertake Will the communist party willingly reduce its power in China Feb 13, 2012




  • Japanese Equities Herald Return to Inflation If Japan bond market breaks, ructions will be felt the world over. $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • Energy imports will pressure Japan’s trade deficit But, Japan has a current account surplus from its net foreign assets Feb 23, 2012
  • Japan Suggests No Quick G-20 Deal on IMF Funding non-European members of the IMF waiting on the Europeans to act $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Tokyo Small-Caps Set for Longest Win Streak Unnoticed but true, look @ this CEF: FD: long $JOF Feb 22, 2012
  • Yen Slumps After Japan Expands Bond Buying Competitive currency devaluations driving Forex $$ #beggarthyneighbor Feb 15, 2012




  • Japan Refiners Said to Stall on Iran Deals Life is harder on those that need Iranian oil, like India, China, Japan $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • Iran Says It Loaded Locally Made Fuel to Nuke Not sure I believe this, but if it’s true, the Israelis will know ;) $$ Feb 15, 2012
  • Iran presses ahead with dollar attack Unlikely to work, but it’s all they can do w/oil transport shut down $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • Letter Writers Break Iranian Taboo They are so desperate that they write the Ayatollah and criticize conditions. $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • Iran Sanctions Tighten as Shippers Stop Loading Risk goes up, shipping insurance premiums rise, shipping stops $$ Feb 13, 2012


Rest of the World


  • Record Redemptions Loom Amid Akbank $1.3 Billion Loan Talks Never knew Turkish firms financed w/so much Short debt $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Chavez Missing $10 Billion a Month by Curbing State Oil Investment PDVSA falls behind Pemex? How low can you go? $$ Feb 15, 2012
  • Chávez Opposition Faces Hard Election Chavez controls media & oil wealth; tough for Capriles, but he can still win. Feb 14, 2012
  • Gunfights in Saudi Arabia Show Spread of Tensions Shia in Saudi Arabia fight the govt. Biggest split in Mideast $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • The Real Reasons the Rich Are Moving Cash to the Caymans Litigation risk, and US political risk; diversify yr govts Feb 13, 2012


Federal Reserve / Monetary Policy / Fiscal Policy


  • Those believing the Fed is on hold for the next 3 years will be in for a rude awakening FF futures & TIPS betray mkt $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • Exported Inflation to Return Home, but When and in What Form The Fed will find it hard to shrink its balance sheet $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • Healthcare expenses will overwhelm the US federal budget Suspect a deal will b driven 2 reduce benefits somehow $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • “Fiat Money and Collective Corruption” Hard money would help, the bigger problem is light regulation of banks/credit $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • Fed Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors Q: Why? 2 avoid bank influence, or 2 hide bank influence? $$ Feb 21, 2012
  • The Race To Debase In All Its Glory Balance sheets of major central banks expand rapidly $$ #racetothebottom Feb 21, 2012
  • Wealthy Enriched by Double-Dipping U.S. Plan Long article describing unethical use of SBA $$ . #eliminatetheSBA Feb 21, 2012
  • Over-regulated America The home of laissez-faire is being suffocated by excessive and badly written regulation $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Geithner: GOP Walked Away From Tax Overhaul – Bloomberg Articles like this indicate another stalemate in the making $$ Feb 17, 2012
  • Potomac Divide Shows Foreclosures Thru Courts Slow Home-Price Recovery MD has slow foreclosures, housing mkt lags VA Feb 16, 2012
  • Sober Look: Regulate it all, ask questions later New regulations reduce the liquidity of the corporate bond market $$ Feb 16, 2012
  • FHA is almost broke. What will DC do when it goes critical? RT @HousingWire: FHA defaults up for ninth straight month Feb 15, 2012
  • Pentagon May Oust Troops Involuntarily to Meet Reductions in Budget Plan Tough time 2b let go if you r a veteran $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • What a surprise! $$ RT @pdacosta: Bernanke’s big housing speech makes no mention of the Fed’s regulatory laxity in run-up to the crisis. Feb 10, 2012




  • Contra: Should Mortgage Rates Even Be Lower? Mortgages do not price off of Tsys, but swaps and bank bond yields $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Wall Street Crowds Into Trader Joe’s CMBS mkt getting heated; loans linked 2 retail rose to 45% 4 bonds sold in 2011 Feb 22, 2012
  •  Have a lot of friends who have lost a lot of money waiting for $TLT to break. FD: long TLT Feb 21, 2012
  • A $360 trillion confidence trick I have argued that LIBOR should be based off of binding offers to borrow/lend $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • W/TIPS NY Fed concentrates on the long on-the-run & nearby, w/nominals opposite. Makes implied inflation look higher $$ Feb 10, 2012



Muni Bonds


  • Stockton, CA, to Weigh First Steps Toward Bankruptcy Start of negotiations to reduce emplyee pensions & healthcare $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • Good piece, thx RT @munilass: Evaluating Chapter 9 Bankruptcy for City of Detroit: Reality Check or Turnaround Option? Feb 21, 2012
  • Yes. $$ RT @BarbarianCap: @munilass isn’t this the muni book that @AlephBlog reviewed very favorably a few days ago? Feb 20, 2012




  • New Rules Wreak Havoc forRetirement-Plan Sponsors I would expect rules to be modified, else headaches 4 DC plans $$ Feb 24, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Looking at the RFP, that is one of the few things *not* under consideration, pity too, because it is more important. #DumbOCPP Feb 23, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap The audit is a test of methods and data, not assumptions. That’s actually pretty normal unless you an assumptions outlier $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap I’ve said it many times b4, if life insurers have 2b conservative in accounting, DB plans s/b more so, but they r less so $$ Feb 23, 2012
  • @BarbarianCap Some cases, deals will be driven to reduce benefits, depends on state/muni laws, Ch 9 allowable; not protected by ERISA/PBGC Feb 23, 2012




  • The Capabilities Premium in M&A Long piece that explains why some mergers work; they aid organic growth & r small $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Elemental to Raise $1.7 Billion Next Year to Mine Potash Potash pricing has been volatile lately, cross-currents $$ Feb 22, 2012
  • Gamestop to J.C. Penney Shut Facebook Stores: Retail $FB may have a more difficult time w/retail than some expect $$ Feb 20, 2012
  • Hewlett-Packard’s Message: We’ve Been Here All Along Note: long $HPQ . HPQ definitely sounds more certain now. $$ Feb 16, 2012
  • Icahn Pushing CVR’s Sale Means $1 Billion Gain for Shareholders What refiner wants more capacity now & fertilizer? $$ Feb 16, 2012
  • Hedge Funds Switch Positions, While Paulson Switches Investing Style Issue w/ $HIG is value of Variable product biz $$ Feb 15, 2012




  • The Control Revolution And Its Discontents There is a “sweet spot” for market efficiency, too much & things get chaotic Feb 24, 2012
  • The Decline In Inventory Right Now is NOT a Good Sign Fall in seller confidence & decline in new distressed inventory Feb 23, 2012
  • Spring Lambing in UK Turns Deadly as New Virus Kills Young Infects pregnant sheep, cows and goats, 5% infection rate Feb 22, 2012
  • Midwest Farmland Prices Update for the Year 2011 Good discussion after a good article; things r getting a little bubbly Feb 22, 2012
  • Finding Treasures Among Insurer’s Wreckage Never bot Atl Mutual’s Surplus Notes, but historical curiosities, wow $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • @StockTwits Insurance is boring, but antiquities at the oldest companies are fascinating. Wonder what Nationwide did w/Provident Mutuals? $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • @StockTwits I would hold meetings every now and then in Provident Mutual’s underused antiquities room; would start good conversations $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Why Is Violent Crime Declining in US Cities? & Smarter law enforcement makes DC safer. Wow! $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Thanks, liked it. RT @onwrdnupwrd: you will like this one from this weeks economist Feb 18, 2012
  • Interracial Marriages in US Reach a Record Interesting that it is more prevalent with college educated people. $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Harvard Mapping My DNA Turns Scary Journalist learns hard things about his DNA. Would he be better off not knowing? $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Groupthink: The brainstorming myth People do better solving problems on their own, and sharing ideas w/the group $$ Feb 18, 2012
  • Fear, Submission, and Authoritarianism; a Disturbing Trend Negative social mood leads to loss of liberties $$ Feb 16, 2012
  • Santorum’s Electability Pitch Undermined by 2006 Senate Re-Election Loss – Bloomberg Shouldn’t be an issue, here’s why: Feb 15, 2012
  • As the late Bob Casey said, “You can’t lose if you are a pro-life Democrat.” This is true, and it is why Santorum lost to his son. $$ Feb 15, 2012
  • Cracking the Long-Jump Code Fascinating science applied; the key seems 2b2 jump higher, not just longer $$ Feb 15, 2012
  • The Best Foods for Thought, Literally Perhaps the Mediterranean diet can aid brain function, or a lowcal diet $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • Contra: Almost Half the Price of Oil is Speculative Premium It should be impossible to so overprice such a large mkt $$ Feb 14, 2012
  • The Hunt Brothers thought they could corner a much smaller silver market, and were not able to do it.  The oil compan… Feb 14, 2012
  • So, What’s Your Algorithm? Being able 2 crunch large amounts of data can lead to more objective decisions $$ #ornot Feb 13, 2012

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