ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,585,800 units in March, up 0.2 percent from a year ago.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9 million units for the month, up 1.6 percent from a 16.7 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks grew 1.0 percent with 1,275,806 units.
“Auto sales in the first quarter of 2017 are humming along and deliveries are in line with our expectations for the full calendar year,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “March faced a number of challenges, including winter storms that disabled dealerships in the Northeast for days, delayed tax refund payments and rising interest rates. Despite these headwinds, the industry managed to squeak out a slight gain year over year.”
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,511 per vehicle in March, up 13.4 percent from a year ago, and down 2.1 percent from February 2017.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 97.6 this month compared to 96.3 in February which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the March unemployment rate which came in at 4.7 percent combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for March:
- Registration mix is expected to be 80.5 percent retail sales and 19.5 percent fleet versus 79.9 percent retail and 20.1 percent fleet last March.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,635,405, up 2.4 percent from March 2016.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer | March 2017 Forecast | March 2016 | % Change vs. March 2016 | ||||||||
| BMW | 33,500 | 34,870 | -3.9% | ||||||||
| Daimler | 33,500 | 31,715 | 5.6% | ||||||||
| FCA | 196,500 | 200,814 | -2.1% | ||||||||
| Ford | 239,000 | 253,064 | -5.6% | ||||||||
| GM | 266,000 | 252,128 | 5.5% | ||||||||
| Honda | 144,500 | 138,221 | 4.5% | ||||||||
| Hyundai | 74,700 | 75,310 | -0.8% | ||||||||
| Kia | 57,000 | 58,279 | -2.2% | ||||||||
| Nissan | 166,000 | 163,559 | 1.5% | ||||||||
| Subaru | 55,000 | 49,285 | 11.6% | ||||||||
| Toyota | 214,000 | 219,842 | -2.7% | ||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 52,600 | 49,850 | 5.5% | ||||||||
Industry | 1,585,800 | 1,582,114 | 0.2% | ||||||||
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | March 2017 Forecast | March 2016 | February 2017 | ||||||
| BMW | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | ||||||
| Daimler | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||||||
| FCA | 12.4% | 12.7% | 12.7% | ||||||
| Ford | 15.1% | 16.0% | 15.6% | ||||||
| GM | 16.8% | 15.9% | 17.8% | ||||||
| Honda | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | ||||||
| Hyundai | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | ||||||
| Kia | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | ||||||
| Nissan | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | ||||||
| Subaru | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | ||||||
| Toyota | 13.5% | 13.9% | 13.1% | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | ||||||
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer | March 2017 Forecast | March 2016 | YoY % Change | |||||||
| BMW | 32,429 | 33,685 | -3.7% | |||||||
| Daimler | 31,189 | 29,086 | 7.2% | |||||||
| FCA | 144,100 | 144,286 | -0.1% | |||||||
| Ford | 161,500 | 167,634 | -3.7% | |||||||
| GM | 198,377 | 191,548 | 3.6% | |||||||
| Honda | 143,107 | 136,317 | 5.0% | |||||||
| Hyundai | 56,688 | 57,191 | -0.9% | |||||||
| Kia | 47,000 | 46,855 | 0.3% | |||||||
| Nissan | 123,831 | 121,928 | 1.6% | |||||||
| Subaru | 52,275 | 47,361 | 10.4% | |||||||
| Toyota | 186,720 | 191,286 | -2.4% | |||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 49,315 | 44,937 | 9.7% | |||||||
Industry | 1,275,806 | 1,263,479 | 1.0% | |||||||
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Incentive per Unit Mar 2017 Forecast | Incentive per Unit Mar 2016 | Incentive per Unit Feb 2017 | Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Mar 2016 | Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Feb 2017 | Total Spending Mar 2017 Forecast | |||||||||||||||||
| BMW | $4,514 | $5,128 | $4,245 | -12.0% | 6.3% | $151,205,893 | |||||||||||||||||
| Daimler | $4,151 | $3,714 | $4,111 | 11.8% | 1.0% | $139,062,609 | |||||||||||||||||
| FCA | $4,327 | $4,043 | $4,362 | 7.0% | -0.8% | $837,354,067 | |||||||||||||||||
| Ford | $3,983 | $3,509 | $4,011 | 13.5% | -0.7% | $951,822,298 | |||||||||||||||||
| GM | $4,892 | $4,029 | $5,125 | 21.4% | -4.5% | $1,301,386,486 | |||||||||||||||||
| Honda | $1,941 | $1,528 | $1,886 | 27.0% | 2.9% | $279,977,235 | |||||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | $2,341 | $2,193 | $2,342 | 6.7% | -0.1% | $174,850,961 | |||||||||||||||||
| Kia | $2,945 | $2,838 | $2,978 | 3.8% | -1.1% | $167,866,185 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nissan | $4,074 | $3,466 | $4,080 | 17.5% | -0.2% | $675,503,028 | |||||||||||||||||
| Subaru | $901 | $568 | $950 | 58.6% | -5.2% | $49,302,993 | |||||||||||||||||
| Toyota | $2,208 | $2,082 | $2,259 | 6.1% | -2.3% | $472,573,735 | |||||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | $3,808 | $3,348 | $3,789 | 13.7% | 0.5% | $199,489,449 | |||||||||||||||||
Industry | $3,511 | $3,096 | $3,587 | 13.4% | -2.1% | $5,541,723,555 |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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