March Auto Sales Expected to Reflect Continued Momentum

ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,585,800 units in March, up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9 million units for the month, up 1.6 percent from a 16.7 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks grew 1.0 percent with 1,275,806 units.

“Auto sales in the first quarter of 2017 are humming along and deliveries are in line with our expectations for the full calendar year,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “March faced a number of challenges, including winter storms that disabled dealerships in the Northeast for days, delayed tax refund payments and rising interest rates. Despite these headwinds, the industry managed to squeak out a slight gain year over year.”

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,511 per vehicle in March, up 13.4 percent from a year ago, and down 2.1 percent from February 2017.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 97.6 this month compared to 96.3 in February which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the March unemployment rate which came in at 4.7 percent combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for March:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 80.5 percent retail sales and 19.5 percent fleet versus 79.9 percent retail and 20.1 percent fleet last March.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,635,405, up 2.4 percent from March 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

March

2017 Forecast

March 2016

% Change vs.

March 2016

BMW 33,500 34,870 -3.9%
Daimler 33,500 31,715 5.6%
FCA 196,500 200,814 -2.1%
Ford 239,000 253,064 -5.6%
GM 266,000 252,128 5.5%
Honda 144,500 138,221 4.5%
Hyundai 74,700 75,310 -0.8%
Kia 57,000 58,279 -2.2%
Nissan 166,000 163,559 1.5%
Subaru 55,000 49,285 11.6%
Toyota 214,000 219,842 -2.7%
Volkswagen Group 52,600 49,850 5.5%

Industry

1,585,800

1,582,114

0.2%

Total Market Share

ManufacturerMarch 2017 ForecastMarch 2016February 2017
BMW 2.1% 2.2% 1.9%
Daimler 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%
FCA 12.4% 12.7% 12.7%
Ford 15.1% 16.0% 15.6%
GM 16.8% 15.9% 17.8%
Honda 9.1% 8.7% 9.1%
Hyundai 4.7% 4.8% 3.9%
Kia 3.6% 3.7% 3.2%
Nissan 10.5% 10.3% 10.2%
Subaru 3.5% 3.1% 3.4%
Toyota 13.5% 13.9% 13.1%
Volkswagen Group 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

March 2017 Forecast

March 2016

YoY % Change

BMW 32,429 33,685 -3.7%
Daimler 31,189 29,086 7.2%
FCA 144,100 144,286 -0.1%
Ford 161,500 167,634 -3.7%
GM 198,377 191,548 3.6%
Honda 143,107 136,317 5.0%
Hyundai 56,688 57,191 -0.9%
Kia 47,000 46,855 0.3%
Nissan 123,831 121,928 1.6%
Subaru 52,275 47,361 10.4%
Toyota 186,720 191,286 -2.4%
Volkswagen Group 49,315 44,937 9.7%

Industry

1,275,806

1,263,479

1.0%

Incentive Spending

ManufacturerIncentive per Unit Mar 2017 ForecastIncentive per Unit Mar 2016Incentive per Unit Feb 2017Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Mar 2016Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Feb 2017Total Spending Mar 2017 Forecast
BMW $4,514 $5,128 $4,245 -12.0% 6.3% $151,205,893
Daimler $4,151 $3,714 $4,111 11.8% 1.0% $139,062,609
FCA $4,327 $4,043 $4,362 7.0% -0.8% $837,354,067
Ford $3,983 $3,509 $4,011 13.5% -0.7% $951,822,298
GM $4,892 $4,029 $5,125 21.4% -4.5% $1,301,386,486
Honda $1,941 $1,528 $1,886 27.0% 2.9% $279,977,235
Hyundai $2,341 $2,193 $2,342 6.7% -0.1% $174,850,961
Kia $2,945 $2,838 $2,978 3.8% -1.1% $167,866,185
Nissan $4,074 $3,466 $4,080 17.5% -0.2% $675,503,028
Subaru $901 $568 $950 58.6% -5.2% $49,302,993
Toyota $2,208 $2,082 $2,259 6.1% -2.3% $472,573,735
Volkswagen Group $3,808 $3,348 $3,789 13.7% 0.5% $199,489,449

Industry

$3,511

$3,096

$3,587

13.4%

-2.1%

$5,541,723,555

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

Contacts:

TrueCar, Inc.
Veronica Cardenas
pressinquiries@truecar.com
424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com

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