The week ahead includes the first Friday of July, but not a monthly employment report to boot. More importantly, it marks a critical vote for a long-term austerity plan for Greece. Given that the Greeks will be rallying for a 48 hour long protest up to the vote, all hell could break loose in Athens, across Europe and global markets this week.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
If Greece fails to ratify its five-year austerity plan, the EU and IMF cannot send the next tranche of lifesaving capital to the financially embattled nation of my forefathers. Based on the frustrated state of the Greek populous, nothing is guaranteed and everything is possible this week in Athens.
The week kicked off with an uncharacteristic economic report. Usually falling on a Friday, the Personal Income and Outlays data for the month of May came due at 8:30 AM this Monday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a month-over-month increase of 0.4% for Personal Income. However, income came in up only 0.3% against a revised lower rate of growth for April (+0.3%). This simply reinforces the fact that laborers have very little muscle to flex nowadays. Consumer Spending was expected to be unchanged in May against April, and the result was as expected. However, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, was hot at +0.3%, against a warm 0.2% increase in April. Economists were looking for only a 0.2% rise in May.
President Obama called a meeting with Senate leaders today, after the GOP walked out of debt ceiling discussions last week. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota offered his thoughts on leverage and taxes, as the Minneapolis Fed also published its Midyear Outlook.
Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY) produced its mid-year business plan, through which it broadcast its target for 10% U.S. auto market share. Nortel Networks (OTC: NRTLQ.PK) auctions off patents, while Tribune Co. looks to exit bankruptcy. Six Flags (NYSE: SIX) split 2-for-1.
A general strike is set for Greece, and is scheduled to run through two days and right up to the Greek Parliamentary vote for austerity. Thus, things could get uglier than ever in Athens starting Tuesday and certainly Wednesday.
Last week, the FHFA House Price Index actually showed price increase for the period measured. The Case Shiller Price Index is due for release Tuesday morning at 9:00 AM. This report, produced with Standard & Poor’s, covers data from the month of April, so it is hardly relevant today. The monthly Existing Home Sales Report offers more relevant data.
We will receive the regular ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales data in the premarket hours. Last week’s report, produced in conjunction with Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), showed sales fell against the prior week by 0.7% in the period ending June 18. Year-to-year comparison showed soft growth of 2.2%. Redbook’s weekly data showed sales increased 4.2%.
Two confidence data points reach the wire at 10:00 AM. The Conference Board reports on Consumer Confidence for June, with economists’ expectations set for a reading of 62.0. That would compare with the May reading of 60.8, which was down 5.2 points from April.
Also at 10 AM, look for the State Street (NYSE: STT) Investor Confidence Index for June. The index for May showed investor confidence improved, with the index rising to 104.1, from 97.3. Only North American investor confidence actually illustrated a leaning toward risk.
The Senate Banking Committee will be discussing housing finance reform. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher is scheduled to give an address on the economy.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) produces its weekly Mortgage Activity Report Wednesday in the premarket. Last week’s data showed a slight rise in mortgage rates caused a decrease in mortgage activity. The Market Composite Index fell 5.9% for the period ending June 17.
The Pending Home Sales Index is due for the month of May at 10:00 AM. April’s report produced an index fall to 81.9 from 92.6 in April. Much of this year’s early housing market data was skewed by April weather and spiked gasoline pricing, while year-to-year comparisons matched up against tax-incentive driven activity in 2010.
The EIA Petroleum Status Report is up for release at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending June 17 showed crude oil inventory fell by 1.7 million barrels to a level above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.5 million barrels to a level near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin is giving a speech on rebuilding the American economy in Washington D.C. at 12 PM ET. Farm Prices, which covers all agricultural products, will be reported at 3:00 PM.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are reported each Thursday morning at 8:30 AM ET. Last week’s data, covering the period ending June 25, showed claims rose 9K to 429K. This week, economists are looking for 420K, which is still really bad.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due for reporting at 9:45 AM ET. This report for the month of June is expected to show the index value fell to 53.0, from 56.6 in the prior period, based on Bloomberg’s survey of economists.
Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly measure of the consumer mood, due for release at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. Last week showed deterioration in the index, with its value dropping to -44.9, down from -44.0 the week before.
The EIA Natural Gas Report is up for release at 10:30 Thursday. Last week’s data covering the period ending June 17 showed an increase of 98 Bcf, taking it to a level 64 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.
At 9:00 AM ET, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard will brief reporters after a conference on quantitative easing. Thomas Hoenig will also be speaking. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will address the Clinton Global Initiative meeting Thursday. The day marks the deadline for the IMF to replace DSK. The likely new head is expected widely to be Christine Lagarde.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) issues its tankan survey of business conditions, something that will get notably more attention than usual globally. Markets are closed in Canada and Hong Kong, and the U.S. preps for the three-day Independence Day weekend.
Motor Vehicle Sales will be reported Friday for the month of June. The economists’ consensus expectation is for an increase in the annual pace of sales to 9.6 million, from 9.1 million in May.
Reuters and the University of Michigan will report on Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 AM ET. Economists are looking for this last reading for June to show sentiment stuck at an index value of 71.8.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports on its manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. Economists are looking for the index value to fall to 52.0, down from 53.5 previously. That’s dangerously close to the 50.0 break-point between economic expansion and contraction.
Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending data for the month of May – economists are looking for a 0.3% decline in construction spending, versus the 0.4% increase in April.
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