Ignition and BLAST OFF ! Sure it's low volume ( see Dave Fry's SPY chart ) , but who cares? TSLA jumps 16% in a day, gaining $3Bn in market cap in 5 hours and they tack on another $1Bn overnight – just for good measure. Yes they delivered 20% more cars than expected but that was for one quarter, not the whole year and Musk himself says the long-awaited cheaper Tesla is " about 3 years away " the same 3 years away it was 3 years ago! I'm not going to use the word " scam " because we shorted TSLA yesterday (Feb $140 puts for $5) and that wouldn't be fair. I also won't say " pump and dump " or anything else derisive other than paying $20Bn for a company that has no earnings and projects, at best, $200M next year (for a p/e of 100) in a sector where the average p/e is in the teens – may be a little overpriced. We've played this game before with TSLA and we know not to stand in the way of a runaway train. We'll stop out of our Feb puts with a small loss if we have to and then re-short for April and again for July if they keep going higher because that strategy, of followed last year, eventually hit the jackpot as they dove from $195 all the way back to $120 between Oct 1st and Thanksgiving. Just like a Futures trade ( and see Tuesday's Webcast for a good example ), the key to success is having tight stops when you are wrong so you have another chance to reload at the next stop. We expect some resistance at $165 and a pullback to $150 but, if not, then we'll see how $180 goes ($24Bn!). While TSLA was crowing about ramping up production to 600 cars a week, TM, who produce 600 cars AN HOUR announced their HYDROGEN fuel cell Prius should be ready next year . TM has already sold 6M hybrid Prisus', a number TSLA is on pace to hit about 100 years from now! Yet TSLA is already at 1/6th of TM's …
Ignition and BLAST OFF!
Sure it's low volume (see Dave Fry's SPY chart), but who cares? TSLA jumps 16% in a day, gaining $3Bn in market cap in 5 hours and they tack on another $1Bn overnight – just for good measure. Yes they delivered 20% more cars than expected but that was for one quarter, not the whole year and Musk himself says the long-awaited cheaper Tesla is "about 3 years away" the same 3 years away it was 3 years ago!
I'm not going to use the word "scam" because we shorted TSLA yesterday (Feb $140 puts for $5) and that wouldn't be fair. I also won't say "pump and dump" or anything else derisive other than paying $20Bn for a company that has no earnings and projects, at best, $200M next year (for a p/e of 100) in a sector where the average p/e is in the teens – may be a little overpriced.
We've played this game before with TSLA and we know not to stand in the way of a runaway train. We'll stop out of our Feb puts with a small loss if we have to and then re-short for April and again for July if they keep going higher because that strategy, of followed last year, eventually hit the jackpot as they dove from $195 all the way back to $120 between Oct 1st and Thanksgiving.
Just like a Futures trade (and see Tuesday's Webcast for a good example), the key to success is having tight stops when you are wrong so you have another chance to reload at the next stop. We expect some resistance at $165 and a pullback to $150 but, if not, then we'll see how $180 goes ($24Bn!). While TSLA was crowing about ramping up production to 600 cars a week, TM, who produce 600 cars AN HOUR announced their HYDROGEN fuel cell Prius should be ready next year.
TM has already sold 6M hybrid Prisus', a number TSLA is on pace to hit about 100 years from now! Yet TSLA is already at 1/6th of TM's…
