Get ready for a wild week. FOMC minutes are released on Wednesday at 2pm and there are a record 12 Fed speeches in the days that surround them. Expect the market to gyrate wildly with each tweetable quote and it all kicks off this afternoon with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, followed by KC's Hawkish Esther George at 8:30 . Tuesday we have Kocherlakota (hawk) and Dudley (dove), Wednesday is Evans (dove) and the minutes. Thursday we have Bullard (hawk), Tarullo (dove), Lacker (uber hawk) and Williams (dove) ahead of the realease of the Fed's shocking balance sheet and a look at the ever-expanding US Money Supply. Friday ends with a bang as we hear from Plosser (uber hawk), George again, Fisher (uber hawk) and then Lacker again – so the hawks very much have the last word into the weekend. It's not much of a data week (next week is a doozy, though) and, to summarize it's hawk , hawk , dove , dove , hawk , dove , HAWK , dove , HAWK , hawk , HAWK , HAWK - do you think, perhaps, the Fed is trying to tell us something? The next Fed meeting is October 28th and we'll hear their decision on the 29th. If they don't begin to tighten at this meeting, there is no way they'll do it right before Christmas at their last meeting on the 16th. It seems to mee, they are going to be setting expectations for some hawkish action this week and the reaction will give them time to contemplate it going into the next meeting. What's keeping us from getting too hawkish (bearish) is this chart from Macrobond, which points out that, the last 3 times 10-year rates have been this low, the Fed has begun major rounds of EASING, not tightening policies. QE increases the money supply and that forces note rates up to compensate and Jack Lew is the guy who has to borrow the money at those rates – so you can see how this week will all tie together once the dust settles . IN PROGRESS
Get ready for a wild week.
FOMC minutes are released on Wednesday at 2pm and there are a record 12 Fed speeches in the days that surround them. Expect the market to gyrate wildly with each tweetable quote and it all kicks off this afternoon with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, followed by KC's Hawkish Esther George at 8:30.
Tuesday we have Kocherlakota (hawk) and Dudley (dove), Wednesday is Evans (dove) and the minutes. Thursday we have Bullard (hawk), Tarullo (dove), Lacker (uber hawk) and Williams (dove) ahead of the realease of the Fed's shocking balance sheet and a look at the ever-expanding US Money Supply.
Friday ends with a bang as we hear from Plosser (uber hawk), George again, Fisher (uber hawk) and then Lacker again – so the hawks very much have the last word into the weekend. It's not much of a data week (next week is a doozy, though) and, to summarize it's hawk, hawk, dove, dove, hawk, dove, HAWK, dove, HAWK, hawk, HAWK, HAWK - do you think, perhaps, the Fed is trying to tell us something?
The next Fed meeting is October 28th and we'll hear their decision on the 29th. If they don't begin to tighten at this meeting, there is no way they'll do it right before Christmas at their last meeting on the 16th. It seems to mee, they are going to be setting expectations for some hawkish action this week and the reaction will give them time to contemplate it going into the next meeting.
What's keeping us from getting too hawkish (bearish) is this chart from Macrobond, which points out that, the last 3 times 10-year rates have been this low, the Fed has begun major rounds of EASING, not tightening policies. QE increases the money supply and that forces note rates up to compensate and Jack Lew is the guy who has to borrow the money at those rates – so you can see how this week will all tie together once the dust settles.
IN PROGRESS
