Monday Market Movement – Drifting into the Holidays

November 24, 2014 at 07:53 AM EST

It's a short week . That means we won't expect much volume and that's good because the volume we had on Friday was all downhill from the open. Friday's volume was almost double the other days of the week and you can see how the TradeBots took full advantage of the gapped up open – courtesy of China and Draghi's 1-2 combo stimulus . This morning, we're drifting up again – resetting the pins for another knockdown but probably not into the end of the month (Friday), as "THEY" want to post what will end up being one of the strongest months in the market OF ALL TIME! That's right, we're getting all-time great returns ( as evidenced by our Top Trade Alerts ) and the hits just keep on coming as more and more stimulus is poured on the fire. That's giving us the third highest p/e in the S&P's history , higher than the crash of 1901, higher than the crashes of 1966 or 2007 but still not quite as overpriced as 1929 and, of course, a far, far cry from the dot com crash of just 14 years ago, when YHOO was $300 a share: Of course, if we were to throw out the ridiculous 1,000x valuations of the internet darlings of 2000 and we look at the AVERAGE 15.7x for the S&P, then we're simply 80% overvalued to the norm. That's not so terrible, is it? Oh wait, I'm sorry, that's actually pretty much the definition of terrible… If you are paying a company 27 times what they earn, then it will take you 27 years to get your money back. That's a 4% return on your investment. With rates artificially low, 4% returns on capital seem pretty good, so money flows into the markets but, as we discussed in Member Chat this weekend , we're getting more and more divorced from the Global realities that USUALLY matter to the markets. Dangerous waters . IN PROGRESS

SPY 5 MINUTE It's a short week.

That means we won't expect much volume and that's good because the volume we had on Friday was all downhill from the open. Friday's volume was almost double the other days of the week and you can see how the TradeBots took full advantage of the gapped up open – courtesy of China and Draghi's 1-2 combo stimulus.

This morning, we're drifting up again – resetting the pins for another knockdown but probably not into the end of the month (Friday), as "THEY" want to post what will end up being one of the strongest months in the market OF ALL TIME!

That's right, we're getting all-time great returns (as evidenced by our Top Trade Alerts) and the hits just keep on coming as more and more stimulus is poured on the fire. That's giving us the third highest p/e in the S&P's history, higher than the crash of 1901, higher than the crashes of 1966 or 2007 but still not quite as overpriced as 1929 and, of course, a far, far cry from the dot com crash of just 14 years ago, when YHOO was $300 a share:

S&P Shiller PE annotated

Of course, if we were to throw out the ridiculous 1,000x valuations of the internet darlings of 2000 and we look at the AVERAGE 15.7x for the S&P, then we're simply 80% overvalued to the norm. That's not so terrible, is it? Oh wait, I'm sorry, that's actually pretty much the definition of terrible…

If you are paying a company 27 times what they earn, then it will take you 27 years to get your money back. That's a 4% return on your investment. With rates artificially low, 4% returns on capital seem pretty good, so money flows into the markets but, as we discussed in Member Chat this weekend, we're getting more and more divorced from the Global realities that USUALLY matter to the markets. Dangerous waters.

IN PROGRESS