Sector Detector: Fear and uncertainty hamper a quick turnaround in stocks

September 08, 2015 at 11:04 AM EDT

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics For those investors who thought there might be a quick V-bottom recovery in the markets like we saw last October, they have been sorely disappointed. Last week, the Dow Industrials fell -3.2%, the S&P 500 large caps fell -3.4%, the Nasdaq was down -3.0%, and the Russell 2000 small caps dropped -2.3%.From a technical standpoint, most chartists agree that much damage has been done to the charts and the market seems quite vulnerable and likely to retest lows. Market breadth is poor. And from a fundamental standpoint, the list of concerns is long. Nevertheless, it seems to me that on balance there are more reasons for U.S. stocks to rise than to fall over the next 12 months, with solid comparisons being made to price action and market conditions in 1998. I am not suggesting that new highs on the stock market are imminent, and indeed a breakdown below the October lows is a definite possibility in the near term. But in the longer term, the odds are strong that the global ship will be righted, with the U.S. at the helm, and corporate revenues and earnings will eventually lead stocks higher. In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors. Market overview: Where to start? How about this. I have been doing quite a bit of traveling over the past five weeks, speaking with financial advisors in support of First Trust Portfolio’s launch of the unit investment trust that tracks Sabrient’s first mid-year Baker’s Dozen portfolio (we have been publishing a January top picks list since 2009). My latest travels have taken me to all four corners of the nation, from Orlando to Seattle to San Diego to Hartford, CT, plus Chicago and Philadelphia. And my colleagues have helped fill in when I couldn’t be two places at once, including Buffalo, Minneapolis, Little Rock, Cleveland, San Francisco, Tampa, and Charlotte. The reception from the advisor community has been overwhelmingly supportive, and it has been a pleasure to meet you all. Of course, the level…

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

For those investors who thought there might be a quick V-bottom recovery in the markets like we saw last October, they have been sorely disappointed. Last week, the Dow Industrials fell -3.2%, the S&P 500 large caps fell -3.4%, the Nasdaq was down -3.0%, and the Russell 2000 small caps dropped -2.3%.From a technical standpoint, most chartists agree that much damage has been done to the charts and the market seems quite vulnerable and likely to retest lows. Market breadth is poor. And from a fundamental standpoint, the list of concerns is long. Nevertheless, it seems to me that on balance there are more reasons for U.S. stocks to rise than to fall over the next 12 months, with solid comparisons being made to price action and market conditions in 1998. I am not suggesting that new highs on the stock market are imminent, and indeed a breakdown below the October lows is a definite possibility in the near term. But in the longer term, the odds are strong that the global ship will be righted, with the U.S. at the helm, and corporate revenues and earnings will eventually lead stocks higher.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Where to start? How about this. I have been doing quite a bit of traveling over the past five weeks, speaking with financial advisors in support of First Trust Portfolio’s launch of the unit investment trust that tracks Sabrient’s first mid-year Baker’s Dozen portfolio (we have been publishing a January top picks list since 2009). My latest travels have taken me to all four corners of the nation, from Orlando to Seattle to San Diego to Hartford, CT, plus Chicago and Philadelphia. And my colleagues have helped fill in when I couldn’t be two places at once, including Buffalo, Minneapolis, Little Rock, Cleveland, San Francisco, Tampa, and Charlotte. The reception from the advisor community has been overwhelmingly supportive, and it has been a pleasure to meet you all.

Of course, the level…