Although the current recession in Europe will probably extend into the third quarter, Standard&Poor’s believes the economy may pick up modestly late this year and in 2013.
“Germany and other core northern countries of the eurozone should see sluggish GDP growth this year, while their southern neighbors–namely Italy, Spain, and Portugal–are likely to experience a genuine recession,” said Jean-Michel Six, Standard&Poor’s EMEA chief economist.
The most recent economic data flows suggest we remain on track with our baseline forecast of a mild recession in Europe through the end of the third quarter, followed by an equally mild pick up late this year and in 2013.
A gradual strengthening in demand from emerging markets should provide some support given the ongoing easing of monetary policies in most of these markets. And the likelihood that households will draw on their savings should at the same time buttress consumption in the core countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU, or the eurozone)–Germany, the Benelux (the economic union between Belgium, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg), and France.
For details, see No Fast Lane Out Of Europe’s Recession.