Gold headed down to $1,500 or worse?
Saturday, May 12, 11:00 a.m. We remain on a sell signal for gold. Our signal was primarily due to deterioration of gold’s technicals, reversals of our momentum indicators (not shown), investor sentiment for gold at the time, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and so forth. But as usual, the fundamentals have caught [...]

Saturday, May 12, 11:00 a.m.

We remain on a sell signal for gold.

Our signal was primarily due to deterioration of gold’s technicals, reversals of our momentum indicators (not shown), investor sentiment for gold at the time, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and so forth.

But as usual, the fundamentals have caught up to what technical analysis was seeing in February.

Global economies are slowing. Even the U.S. economic recovery is stumbling. So demand for commodities is plunging, as are commodity prices. The jobs picture is deteriorating again preventing pressure from building for higher wages.

And those deflationary effects are taking support out from under gold, the historical hedge against inflation.  

51212g

Our original downside target was $1,500 an ounce, which at the time of the sell signal was at the lower limit of the trading band that has formed since last August.

However, gold has been taking its time in getting there, which has given the lower limit of the trading band time to extend further, perhaps indicating a move below $1,500.

51212e

Emerging Markets. Buy or Bail?

I’m still hearing a lot of bullish analysis regarding emerging markets as the place to be, given the economic problems and market declines in developed country markets.

“With demand from the developed world tepid at best, trade between emerging markets themselves will accelerate.”

“Emerging markets had a good start in 2012 and our Asian strategists expect Asia to outperform developed markets in 2012.”

Much of the analysis points out how emerging markets even made larger gains than developed country markets in the bull market off the 2009 lows.

True, but that was then, and this is now.

Technical analysis is showing a different picture. 

Emerging markets look to me like they’re possibly in a bear market that began in April of last year, with the rally off the October low to a lower high, potentially being only a bear market rally within an ongoing bear market.

51112a

How Far Behind the Curve Is the Average Guy in The Street?

Analysts and markets have been concerned about the economy since the monthly jobs reports over the last few months began showing new jobs in serious declines. 

Yesterday it was reported that the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 77.8 in May from 76.4 in April, topping forecasts of a fractional decline to 76.2.

And interestingly, the report said almost twice as many consumers in the survey reported hearing about the previous new monthly job gains than had heard about recent monthly job losses.

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the information in the premium content’ area of this morning’s blog, there is a hotline and in-depth Mid-Week Markets Signals Update from Wednesday evening in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday. But please stay tuned to the hotline in the meantime for more potential portfolio changes!

To read my weekend newspaper column ‘Plunging Commodity Prices Are Ominous For Stock Market’ Click here.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

It was a mostly down day yesterday. Volume remained average based on the new normal, with 0.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 34 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.5%. The Nasdaq closed unchanged. The Nasdaq 100 closed unchanged. The Russell 2000 closed down 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.1%.

Gold closed down $14 an ounce at 1,581.

Oil closed down $1.24 a barrel to $95.83 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.8%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets were mixed yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 0.6%. The German DAX closed up 1.0%. And France’s CAC closed unchanged.

Global markets for the week.

A negative week, very much so in Asia.


THIS WEEK (May 11)
DJIA12820- 1.6%
S&P 5001353- 1.2%
NYSE7816- 2.2%
NASDAQ2933- 0.8%
NASD 1002615- 4.5%
Russ 2000790- 0.1%
DJTransprts5140- 1.7%
DJ Utilities472+ 0.8%
XOI Oils1,161- 2.7%
Gold bull.1,581- 3.8%
GoldStcks151- 0.3%
Canada11694- 1.5%
London5575- 1.4%
Germany6579+ 0.3%
France3129- 1.0%
Hong Kong19964- 5.3%
Japan8953- 4.6%
Australia4342- 2.7%
S. Korea1917- 3.6%
India16292- 3.2%
Indonesia4114- 2.4%
Brazil59336- 2.4%
Mexico38891- 1.3%
China2394- 2.4%
LAST WEEK (May 4)
DJIA13038- 1.4%
S&P 5001369- 2.4%
NYSE7993- 2.0%
NASDAQ2956- 3.7%
NASD 1002737- 3.8%
Russ 2000791- 4.1%
DJTransprts5227- 0.8%
DJ Utilities468- 0.2%
XOI Oils1,193- 2.5%
Gold bull.1,643- 1.2%
GoldStcks156- 6.0%
Canada11871- 3.0%
London5655- 2.1%
Germany6561- 3.5%
France3161- 3.2%
Hong Kong21086+ 1.7%
Japan9380- 1.5%
Australia4459+ 0.6%
S. Korea1989+ 0.7%
India16831- 1.8%
Indonesia4216+ 1.3%
Brazil60820- 1.4%
Mexico39408+ 0.2%
China2452+ 2.3%
PREVIOUS WEEK (April 27)
DJIA13228+ 1.5%
S&P 5001403+ 1.8%
NYSE8152+ 1.6%
NASDAQ3069+ 2.3%
NASD 1002741+ 2.4%
Russ 2000825+ 2.6%
DJTransprts5267+ 0.6%
DJ Utilities469+ 1.9%
XOI Oils1,224+ 1.8%
Gold bull.1,663+ 1.3%
GoldStcks166+ 1.2%
Canada12239+ 0.8%
London5777+ 0.1%
Germany6801+ 0.8%
France3266+ 2.4%
Hong Kong20741- 1.3%
Japan9520- 0.4%
Australia4433- 0.3%
S. Korea1975unchgd
India17134- 1.4%
Indonesia4163- 0.4%
Brazil61691- 1.2%
Mexico39327- 0.1%
China2396- 0.4%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the Premium Content section this morning: U.S. stock market short-term and intermediate-term signals.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week returns to being an average week for potential market-moving economic reports, which include the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, FOMC minutes, the Fed’s Phila Fed Index, etc. To see the full list and times for each release click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column ‘Plunging Commodity Prices Are Ominous For Stock Market’ Click here.

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the information in the premium content’ area of this morning’s blog, there is a hotline and in-depth Mid-Week Markets Signals Update from Wednesday evening in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website. The next issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday. But please stay tuned to the hotline in the meantime for more potential portfolio changes!

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m. 

Non-subscribers: We believe we can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings. And we are off to a great start this year, and also moved up to #1 Long-Term Market-Timer.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds, two portfolios of recommended holdings (one modified buy and hold, and one market-timing). Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Highly regarded and in our 24th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!

**** End of Today’s post*****

Stock Market XML and JSON Data API provided by FinancialContent Services, Inc.
Nasdaq quotes delayed at least 15 minutes, all others at least 20 minutes.
Markets are closed on certain holidays. Stock Market Holiday List
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions.
Press Release Service provided by PRConnect.
Stock quotes supplied by Six Financial
Postage Rates Bots go here