Research and Markets: The Russia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2008 Provides Independent Forecasts and Competitive Intelligence on Russia's Commercial Banking Industry

Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8fb33d/russia_commercial) has announced the addition of the "Russia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2008" report to their offering.

Over the last year the crisis in the inter-bank market and the soaring prices of oil and other raw materials tended to obscure several other important trends. In most of the developing world (i.e. the vast majority of the countries whose banking industries are surveyed), lending has been growing quickly. In many emerging markets inflationary pressures have been boosted by a rapid increase in credit, and in a number of emerging markets macro-economic imbalances are evident. The figures on the tables above provide a snapshot of the banking sector in Greece and the changes that have taken place within it over the last year.

To place the figures in context, it may be useful to bear in mind certain aspects of the 59 countries whose banking sectors are currently surveyed. Across this sample the median growth in assets in local currency terms was 21.3% (in Colombia), the median loan growth was 21.6% (in India), and the median growth in deposits was 17.9% (in Brazil). On their own, the ratios of loans to deposits, assets, and GDP mean little; however, they can provide useful hints when combined with other data. Across the 59 countries the median loan/deposit ratio was 92.3% (in Greece), the median loan/asset ratio was 56.0% (in Poland), and the median loan/GDP ratio was 63.9% (in India). From 3Q08, we have included a new section that examines the risks associated with each country’s banking sector in a new way.

We have essentially sought to ask to what extent the banking sector will likely need source funding from banks in the rest of the world over the course of 2008. Given that the answer is not necessarily meaningful on its own, we have looked at other key issues such as the size and recent movement in the loan/deposit ratio, macro-economic developments, and recent movements in financial markets. In general, the first half of 2008 has been kind to fixed-income investors and money market participants in Central and Eastern Europe. Inter-bank lending rates have come down thanks to the actions of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, among others.

Benchmark bond yields have generally fallen in absolute terms and, in some cases, relative to yields in developed countries. This is in spite of the fact that in many of the countries in the region, the statistics from the banking sector are worrying given the economic imbalances that persist. As in previous reports, we include a SWOT analysis for Russia. On one hand, the sheer size and growth potential of the banking sector is impressive, especially in the context of an ongoing economic boom. On the other, levels of transparency remain very low. Since Q108 we have calculated on a consistent basis a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed.

The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits of potential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential, and bancassurance potential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends on an assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns. This reflects our assessments of overall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment. Russia’s overall CBBER is 65.0.

Within the limits to potential return, the banking market structure and the country structure are relatively close, with scores of 71.9 and 50.7 respectively. Within the risks to the realisation of potential returns, the banking marketing risks and the country risks are much more evenly rated, with scores of 66.7 and 70.0 respectively.

The Russia Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's commercial banking industry.

Key Topics Covered:

Executive Summary

Table: Levels (RUBbn)

Table: Levels (US$bn)

Table: Levels At December 31 2007

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208

Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Key Issues

Changes To The Commercial Banking Report

Commercial Banking SWOT

Russia Commercial Banking SWOT

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating

Table: Russia’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Anticipated Development

Anticipated Development in 2008

Table: Anticipated Developments In 2008 – Loans And

Table: Anticipated Developments In 2008 – Interbank Rates And Bond Yields

Bank Lending

Lending Overview

Table: Lending Overview (RUBbn)

Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)

Per-Capita Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007

Macroeconomic Trends And Developments

Table: Russia - Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Comment On Developments Over Last Year

Comment On Forecasts

Comment On Trends and Ratios

Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios Central & Eastern Europe, Late 2007/ Early 2008

Banks’ Bond Portfolios

Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007

Competitive Landscape And Protagonists

Methodology

Basis Of Projections

Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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