Good for stocks and bonds,
Not so good for people, apart from the lower gasoline prices.
June Employment Data (U.S. and Canada)
- Headline payroll growth of 80k in line with other Q2 employment readings and a clear loss of momentum in job gains from Q1.
- The report was a positive from a personal income standpoint, however, as the components of the income equation, Hourly Earnings (+0.3%) and Aggregate Hours (0.4%) were both strong.
- The hours data in particular suggests demand was running at reasonable levels but forward uncertainty may have restrained hiring.
- Weather related sectors did bounce back: Net change in construction of +33k in particular. There may have been some seasonal issues in education as that sector had a net change of -55k.
- Other key metrics were generally stable: The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%, the labor force participation rate was unchanged, the median duration of unemployment fell from 20.1 weeks to 19.8 weeks, and the Diffusion Index dropped from 59.8 to 57.9
- This is the last payroll number before the next Fed meeting. In what should be a close call, Twist 2 will likely be maintained.
- Very modest growth in employment in June (7.3k). Equivalent to about 75k in the U.S., population-adjusted.
- Y/Y growth in Canadian employment is exactly 1%. Combined with modest productivity growth, current GDP trends appear similar to the U.S., about 1.5-2.0%.