Among the stocks featured in the August 24 edition of
Schaeffer's Market Blog are Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), Williams-Sonoma
(NYSE:WSM), Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM), Ford Motor (NYSE:F), and eBay
(NASDAQ:EBAY). Schaeffer's Market Blog is just one of the many free
market commentaries written every day at www.SchaeffersResearch.com -
the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. The
Market Blog is written throughout every trading day by Schaeffer's
financial analysts and traders. They are quick insights to the day's
most notable market activity from an options perspective. For
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http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13M&PAGE=1 .
Schaeffer's Market Blog for Thursday, August 24, 2006:
Below are just a few of today's Market Blog entries. Click here to
read all of today's Market Blog.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1 .
11:45 AM Rite Aid Goes Shopping
Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) is trading briskly today on news that the
company has agreed to acquire about 1,800 Brooks and Eckerd drugstores
from Jean Coutu Group, a leading Canadian drugstore chain. The deal is
valued at $3.4 billion. Jean Coutu Group will receive a 32-percent
stake in RAD in return.
The stock was down more than four percent at last check at $4.48,
but this decline follows a 7.3-percent advance yesterday. As things
stand, RAD is battling resistance at its 10-day moving average, though
it successfully tested the support of its 20-day trendline this
morning.
Sentiment is mixed. According to Zacks, all seven brokerages which
rate RAD keep it at a cautious "hold" or worse, leaving room for
upgrades. However, sentiment in the options pits is optimistic,
warning that money might be scarce and expectations are high. The
Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for the stock is 0.13,
telling us that calls are more than seven times as popular as puts in
the front three months of options. This ratio is lower than 85 percent
of those taken during the past year, so it lies toward an optimistic
extreme. Such high expectations can be dangerous. If options players
have high expectations, RAD had better maintain its current uptrend.
For the past two years, the stock has trended sideways between the
3.25 and 4.80 levels. It came close to 4.80 yesterday, but was
rejected.
12:12 PM Williams-Sonoma Lowers Forecasts
Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) reduced its fiscal 2006 revenue
guidance to a range of $3.75 billion and $3.8 billion, from a previous
range of $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion. It shifted earnings guidance to
a range of $1.87 to $1.94 per share, down from a prior range of $1.97
to $2.01 a share. At last check, the stock was down almost eight
percent at $30.00. In 2000, the stock entered an uptrend on support of
its 20-month moving average, but it topped out at the 45 level, and
has now pulled its 10-month and 20-month moving averages to the brink
of a bearish cross. On our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard, WSM earns 4.0
out of 10. Scores close to 10 suggest that the path of least
resistance lies to the upside, whereas scores close to zero suggest
the opposite.
1:16 PM Fannie Mae Gets a Pop
Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) is up about four percent today after the
company announced this morning that the Justice Department is
discontinuing its investigation into FNM's accounting practices and
does not plan to file any charges. After peaking around $51.90, the
shares have pulled back a bit and are trading right around $51.00.
We've seen strong call option volume on FNM, and this sign of optimism
could be putting a damper on the stock. In fact, call volume on the
security is running at about nine times average thus far today.
2:43 PM Airlines and Internet Down
We've bounced a little bit since lunch with the Dow now up five
points and the SPX up two points. One area that continues to struggle
is the transports, with airlines leading the way lower, as the AMEX
Airlines Index (XAL) is down 1.35 percent. Internet isn't doing much
better, with the Internet HOLDRs Trust (HHH) down 1.30 percent. All in
all, today is more of the same - light volume and not much action.
3:15 PM JC Bamford Excavators to Buy Jaguar?
In Opening View this morning, Joseph Hargett mentioned a USA Today
story that cited a source claiming the Ford family (which controls
about 40 percent of the company) is pondering whether or not to take
Ford Motor (NYSE:F) private. The report suggested that the family
wanted to take the ailing automaker private to revamp it without the
glare that being a public company entails.
Separately, The Financial Times reported that Britain's JC Bamford
Excavators was interested in buying F's Jaguar division. This last
piece of news intrigues me. JC Bamford Excavators is a successful
vehicle manufacturer. Drive past any construction site in Britain and,
chances are, you'll see a familiar yellow JCB. Of course, diggers,
forklifts, and backhoes are very different than Jaguars, with
considerably less walnut, leather, and thick-pile carpeting, but JCB
knows a thing or two about business success. Despite being a private
company, it's Europe's biggest manufacturer of construction equipment,
according to Hoover's. A return to Britain for the classic, luxury
Jaguar marque might be viewed as a positive step by enthusiasts, if
only for sentimental reasons, and might even drive buyers into
showrooms merely because the car's name is making the news. Meanwhile,
although I only just learned about it, I'm already smitten by the JCB
Fastrac tractor, which can manage 45 mph, apparently, and looks as if
it could bully a Hummer. And I bet you could park it anywhere you
wanted.
3:35 PM eBay Downgraded
eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) was downgraded to "underperform" from "market
perform" by Piper Jaffray this morning. The brokerage firm also
lowered its price target to $25 from $30, citing a worsening picture,
with costs likely to increase. The stock had been in a decline since
late January, losing more than half its value, but a bounce in early
August gave some hope that the tide may have turned. Alas, today the
stock has breached potential support at both its 10-day and 10-week
moving averages. It has fallen almost five percent at $25.74. The
20-day trendline lies at the 25 level, which might offer support
against a further fall.
For more information on these stocks or any stock in your
portfolio, feel free to visit our Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard
feature. Click here to read all of today's Market Blog:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/redirect.aspx?CODE=PROB13C&PAGE=1.
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