Adobe Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its Adobe®
Digital Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast focused on the 2012 holiday
shopping season in the U.S. and Europe. The Digital Index analyzed more
than 150 billion website visits to more than 500 Adobe retail customers
over the past six years in order to forecast sales growth figures and
online shopping spikes for the upcoming season. Using predictive
analytics technology, the Adobe Marketing Cloud can sift through massive
amounts of historical data from the Web’s top retailers to identify
patterns and algorithmically predict future results.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday 2012 online revenue for the retail sector to
reach $2 billion, growing by 18 percent year-over-year. The company’s
data analysis also predicts strong purchasing activity from mobile
devices, with mobile representing 21 percent of total online sales this
holiday, an increase of 110 percent over last year. Adobe’s online
shopping predictions and actual results will also be available on an
ongoing basis via a new interactive website that will continuously
monitor and update online purchasing data as-it-happens throughout the
season. The Adobe Digital Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast
infographic and interactive website can be accessed at http://adobe.com/go/onlineshopping.
Key Digital Index Predictive Analyses for the 2012 Holiday Shopping
Season
Biggest Online Shopping Days
Online retail sales are expected to reach a record $2 billion on Cyber
Monday (November 26), the biggest online shopping day of the year in
the U.S., representing a growth of 18 percent, year-over-year.
Black Friday (November 23) is expected to be the second largest online
sales day of 2012 when retailers will see a sales increase of 12
percent, year-over-year.
While all retailers benefit from increased Cyber Monday traffic,
Brick-and-Click retailers are the segment expected to see the largest
spike on Cyber Monday, bringing in nearly 540 percent more than what
they do on an average day in 2012. Online-only retailers are expected
to see an impressive, yet more modest sales increase of 210 percent
this Cyber Monday compared to an average day throughout the year.
Green Monday (December 10), the second Monday in December and also a
high-grossing online sales day, is predicted to outpace Green Monday
2011 by seven percent. The typical retailer can expect to see a sales
increase of nearly 150 percent compared to an average day throughout
the year.
Free Shipping Day (December 17), when thousands of merchants offer
free shipping online with guaranteed delivery by Christmas Eve, is
also expected to grow by 12 percent year-over-year, particularly since
it falls on a Monday for the first time since its inception five years
ago. Mondays historically are the busiest online shopping days of the
week.
Increase in Mobile Sales
Mobile is expected to represent 21 percent of total online sales
during the 2012 holiday season.
Sales from mobile devices are projected to increase 110 percent this
holiday season compared to last year, with sales from tablets
constituting 13.5 percent of total sales, more than double that of
smartphones (6.5 percent) and other devices such as e-readers (one
percent).
On Black Friday, consumers are expected to use their tablets and
phones to shop more than any other day of the year with 24 percent of
online visits projected to come from mobile.
Social Media Influences More Purchasing
Social media referrals to retail point-of-sale websites this holiday
season are projected to double compared to last year.
Out of these social referral sources, referrals from Pinterest are
expected to grow the most, doubling from seven percent to 14 percent,
year-over-year.
Holiday Shopping in Europe
European consumers are expected to start holiday shopping sooner and
finish later than their U.S. counterparts. While online sales in the
U.S. do not pick up significantly until Black Friday, European
retailers were seeing average daily sales increase by 150 percent the
first week of November and will see a similar spike the week after
Christmas.
Mobile shopping is projected to increase in Europe this holiday
season, with sales from mobile devices expected to double from six
percent to 12 percent, year-over-year.
Additional Shopping Insights
Despite widespread discounts offered during the Thanksgiving weekend,
the best deals will actually be found online the week before
Christmas, not on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. The largest price
reductions are expected to come on Free Shipping Day.
Online jewelry sales will peak in mid-December, much later than sales
in most other retail categories which will peak on Cyber Monday. In
fact, the data forecasts online conversion rates to double for jewelry
purchases on Free Shipping Day as jewelry is a popular last-minute
gift.
Interactive Holiday Data Website
Adobe also introduced an interactive website driven by Adobe
CQ technology that will be accessible
at http://adobe.com/go/onlineshopping
throughout the holiday season, allowing visitors to compare the accuracy
of Adobe’s online shopping predictive analyses over time as well as
uncover new shopping patterns and trends on their own as they emerge.
Visitors will be able to compare various retail metrics such as
“conversion,” “online sales,” “average price,” “visits” and more by
distinct retail segments and product categories within the U.S. and
Europe for any specific date throughout November and December 2012.
Adobe will update the data daily so that visitors can always come back
to find new information.
“Rather than report on what happened after the fact this holiday
season, we are leveraging big data captured by the Adobe Marketing
Cloud to accurately forecast the trends before they happen. This helps
our retail customers plan for consumer spending activity online to
better monetize their holiday campaigns. Adobe is the big data company
for marketers, helping them sort through and understand massive
amounts of online and offline transactional information to uncover
patterns that will help them better understand and drive their
business forward.”
Adobe Digital Index Holiday Forecast Methodology
The Adobe Digital Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast infographic and
interactive website can be accessed here.
The algorithms used to create the predictive analysis are based on more
than 150 billion online visits to over 500 retail websites in the U.S.
and Europe over the past six years. The margin of error is two percent
with a 90 percent confidence level and the forecast’s methodology and
degree of accuracy has been evaluated and verified by b3Intelligence,
an independent analytics and research service provider.
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other
topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across
industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous and
aggregated data from over 5,000 companies worldwide that use Adobe
Marketing Cloud to obtain actionable data and analysis of activity on
their websites.
About Adobe Systems Incorporated
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more
information, visit www.adobe.com.
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