Homes.com Local Market Index and Rebound Reports Show Continuing Recovery in Third Quarter

Homes.com, a leading online real estate destination and a division of Dominion Enterprises, has released its September Local Market Index, a price performance summary of repeat sales of U.S. properties. Utilizing home pricing data, the Index shows year-over-year gains for single-family properties in all 300 top U.S. markets.

To provide insight into local market housing trends across the country, Homes.com publishes the Local Market Index for the Top 100 markets and the companion Midsize Markets Report for markets ranked from 101-300. Month-over-month increases in index values were seen in 251 of the top 300 markets, down from 253 the previous month. The slight downtrend is likely due to both seasonal trends and the state of recovery for these markets. Of the 49 markets that saw declines last month, 18 have fully recovered their decline in home prices from the housing bubble and show signs of continuing stabilization.

As a complement to the Local Market Index, Homes.com publishes an exclusive Rebound Report, highlighting how the housing recovery process is unfolding across the country. It measures each market’s peak-to-trough decline in index value, which had been attributed to the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble.

Seasonal downtrends, along with market stabilization, continued to trend at the end of the third quarter, as the number of markets which reached a full recovery remained consistent with the previous month at 26. While the number of top 100 markets achieving a full recovery remained flat from the previous month, there is noticeable improvement in the number of these markets pertaining to overall recovery. Three markets moved out of the 0-25% rebound range, and three markets moved up in the 75-100% rebound range. Therefore, of a majority of the nation’s largest markets, 52 percent have recovered more than half of their equity lost during the Great Recession.

For the fourth consecutive month, all of the 200 midsize local markets measured continued to show gains year over year for the single-family index. 161 of these markets increased month to month – slightly down by 3 from last month’s report. However, the month-to-month declines displayed by 39 markets are relatively nominal, with the largest decrease being -0.93 index points in Lynchburg, Va.

“As we end the third quarter, both large and small markets that previously achieved full price recovery from the housing depression consolidated their gains reached during the home buying season. One in four surpassed their pre-recession peak values,” said Brock MacLean, executive vice president of Homes.com. “These price gains are restoring millions of homeowners to positive equity and are reviving local real estate markets across the country.”

The latest Homes.com Local Market Index reports the following:

• Year-over-year increases in all top 300 markets.
• Monthly increases in 90 of the top 100 markets and in 161 of the 200 midsized markets.
• Honolulu, Hawaii remains the top gaining market on a year-over-year basis, with a 28.88 index point or 13.07 percent increase.
• California markets [Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.; San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.; Bakersfield-Delano, Calif.] are the remaining 4 in the top 5. Year-over-year, they increased 26.73, 25.98, 25.41 and 20.32 index points, respectively, but are only an average of 32 percent back to recovery.
• All of the top 10 monthly gaining markets from the top 100 are in the West, up from nine in the previous month and six in the month prior to that.

Highlights from the Homes.com Rebound Report for the top 300 markets show:

• 80 have made more than a 100 percent rebound, indicating a complete recovery in these markets. This is an increase from 77 markets in the previous reporting period.
• The 3 newest markets to achieve a full rebound are Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill., Santa Fe, N.M., and Jefferson City, Mo.
• 152 show more than a 50 percent rebound, up from 143 markets in the previous month.
• 24 percent (19) of the 80 fully rebounded markets reported month-over-month losses, and the remaining averaged 1 percent gains month-over-month compared to .75 percent gain in non-recovered markets. This illustrates the seasonal downtrend in the housing market along with a leveling of home prices.
• 22 markets were not affected by the boom-bust scenario of the U.S. housing bubble. These markets did not experience the same peak-to-trough decline displayed by the remaining 278 markets. All of these markets are midsize markets, with half from the state of Texas and 73 percent from energy-producing areas. They include: Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas; Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas; Shreveport-Bossier City, La.; Anchorage, Alaska; Fayetteville, N.C.; Charleston, W.Va.; Lubbock, Texas; Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; Waco, Texas; College Station-Bryan, Texas; Longview, Texas; Tyler, Texas; Fargo, N.D.-Minn.; Jacksonville, N.C.; Monroe, La.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; Abilene, Texas; Iowa City, Iowa; Wichita Falls, Texas; Sioux City, Iowa-Neb.-S.D.; and Midland, Texas.

Resources:

The Homes.com Local Market Index (Top 100) for September 2013 can be downloaded here.

The Homes.com Local Market Index Midsize Markets Report can be downloaded here.

The Homes.com Rebound Report for September 2013 can be downloaded here.

The rebound percentages for the top 300 markets in September 2013 values can be viewed here.

Various tables and graphs included in the report can be downloaded here.

To receive a comprehensive data file including index values in every zip code within a local market, contact LocalMarketReports@Homes.com.

Methodology:

The Local Market Index is calculated from sales data on the same homes over time, allowing a side-by-side comparison of the same property. This more accurately tracks the monthly growth and decline in home prices over a longer period of time. Each sales pair observed is grouped with all other sales pairs found within the area to create a highly localized, neighborhood-level index.

The Homes.com Rebound Report tracks how far each market has recovered from its peak-to-trough decline in index value attributable to the Great Recession, a recently marked global economic decline that correlated with the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble. This report provides a useful way to understand how the housing recovery process is unfolding across the country.

About Homes.com

As one of the nation’s top online real estate destinations, Homes.com inspires consumers to dream big. From affordable houses to luxurious estates, condos, rentals and more, Homes.com features close to three million property listings and a user-friendly format, making finding your next home or a licensed real estate agent easily accessible. Visitors to the Homes.com blog will find a collection of rich content and posts on DIY projects, painting, gardening and more, providing the ultimate resource for everything home related. From purchasing a first home, to upgrading, downsizing and everything in between, Homes.com is an inspiring and engaging partner in every phase of the home buying process.

Homes.com is a division of Dominion Enterprises, a leading marketing services and publishing company headquartered in Norfolk, Virginia. For more information, visit www.dominionenterprises.com.

For more information, visit http://www.homes.com or blog.homes.com.