ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,325,000 units in February, down 1.4 percent from a year ago.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.45 million units for the month, down from a 17.69 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with 1,039,299 units.
“Retail sales are flat, but the collective reduction on fleet sales is leading to year-over-year declines,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “Disciplined fleet and inventory management are positive signs for the industry. The modest drop in sales is a byproduct of the medicine the industry needs to take to sustain a healthy balance between inventory and demand.”
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,443 per vehicle in February, up 13.5 percent from a year ago, and down 0.8 percent from January 2017.
“Look for incentives to decline to more manageable levels in Q2 as pullbacks in production lead to right size inventory on dealer lots,” said Lyman.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 96.3 this month compared to 98.5 in January. While slightly below last month, the Sentiment Index continues to signal the strength of a healthy U.S. economy. The January unemployment rate came in at a nine year low of 4.8 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for February:
- Registration mix is expected to be 78.4 percent retail sales and 21.6 percent fleet versus 77.3 percent retail and 22.7 percent fleet last February.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,167,780, up 7.9 percent from February 2016.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume: | |||||||
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | February 2017 Forecast | February 2016 | % Change vs. February 2016 | ||||
| BMW | 25,500 | 25,414 | 0.3 | % | |||
| Daimler | 27,500 | 25,632 | 7.3 | % | |||
| FCA | 165,000 | 183,607 | -10.1 | % | |||
| Ford | 207,000 | 216,045 | -4.2 | % | |||
| GM | 230,500 | 227,825 | 1.2 | % | |||
| Honda | 122,000 | 118,985 | 2.5 | % | |||
| Hyundai | 52,000 | 53,009 | -1.9 | % | |||
| Kia | 45,000 | 49,737 | -9.5 | % | |||
| Nissan | 124,000 | 130,911 | -5.3 | % | |||
| Subaru | 46,000 | 42,011 | 9.5 | % | |||
| Toyota | 185,000 | 187,954 | -1.6 | % | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 43,500 | 37,747 | 15.2 | % | |||
Industry | 1,325,000 | 1,344,225 | -1.4 | % | |||
Total Market Share | |||||||||
| Manufacturer | February 2017 Forecast | February 2016 | January 2017 | ||||||
| BMW | 1.9 | % | 1.9 | % | 1.9 | % | |||
| Daimler | 2.1 | % | 1.9 | % | 2.4 | % | |||
| FCA | 12.5 | % | 13.7 | % | 13.4 | % | |||
| Ford | 15.6 | % | 16.1 | % | 15.0 | % | |||
| GM | 17.4 | % | 16.9 | % | 17.1 | % | |||
| Honda | 9.2 | % | 8.9 | % | 9.3 | % | |||
| Hyundai | 3.9 | % | 3.9 | % | 3.9 | % | |||
| Kia | 3.4 | % | 3.7 | % | 3.1 | % | |||
| Nissan | 9.4 | % | 9.7 | % | 9.8 | % | |||
| Subaru | 3.5 | % | 3.1 | % | 3.8 | % | |||
| Toyota | 14.0 | % | 14.0 | % | 12.5 | % | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.3 | % | 2.8 | % | 3.6 | % | |||
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | February 2017 | February 2016 | YoY % Change | ||||
| BMW | 23,900 | 24,073 | -0.7 | % | |||
| Daimler | 25,500 | 23,625 | 7.9 | % | |||
| FCA | 122,500 | 126,514 | -3.2 | % | |||
| Ford | 134,500 | 133,616 | 0.7 | % | |||
| GM | 177,750 | 177,924 | -0.1 | % | |||
| Honda | 120,500 | 117,379 | 2.7 | % | |||
| Hyundai | 35,485 | 34,330 | 3.4 | % | |||
| Kia | 33,015 | 41,073 | -19.6 | % | |||
| Nissan | 87,000 | 88,715 | -1.9 | % | |||
| Subaru | 43,500 | 40,353 | 7.8 | % | |||
| Toyota | 154,250 | 156,911 | -1.7 | % | |||
| Volkswagen Group | 36,900 | 33,143 | 11.3 | % | |||
Industry | 1,039,299 | 1,038,696 | 0.1 | % | |||
Incentive Spending | ||||||||||||||||||
| Manufacturer | Incentive | Incentive | Incentive | Incentive | Incentive | Total Spending | ||||||||||||
| BMW | $ | 4,450 | $ | 4,584 | $ | 4,032 | -2.9 | % | 10.4 | % | $ | 113,163,241 | ||||||
| Daimler | $ | 4,415 | $ | 3,754 | $ | 4,465 | 17.6 | % | -1.1 | % | $ | 121,413,963 | ||||||
| FCA | $ | 4,187 | $ | 3,916 | $ | 4,219 | 6.9 | % | -0.8 | % | $ | 686,249,164 | ||||||
| Ford | $ | 4,096 | $ | 3,317 | $ | 4,144 | 23.5 | % | -1.1 | % | $ | 847,959,642 | ||||||
| GM | $ | 4,547 | $ | 4,022 | $ | 4,587 | 13.0 | % | -0.9 | % | $ | 1,047,996,755 | ||||||
| Honda | $ | 2,168 | $ | 1,490 | $ | 2,095 | 45.5 | % | 3.5 | % | $ | 264,536,790 | ||||||
| Hyundai | $ | 2,182 | $ | 2,099 | $ | 2,176 | 3.9 | % | 0.3 | % | $ | 113,456,413 | ||||||
| Kia | $ | 3,383 | $ | 2,872 | $ | 3,366 | 17.8 | % | 0.5 | % | $ | 152,216,510 | ||||||
| Nissan | $ | 3,975 | $ | 3,396 | $ | 3,993 | 17.1 | % | -0.4 | % | $ | 492,939,580 | ||||||
| Subaru | $ | 896 | $ | 557 | $ | 966 | 60.9 | % | -7.2 | % | $ | 41,221,553 | ||||||
| Toyota | $ | 2,155 | $ | 2,102 | $ | 2,212 | 2.5 | % | -2.6 | % | $ | 398,685,309 | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | $ | 3,466 | $ | 3,386 | $ | 3,418 | 2.4 | % | 1.4 | % | $ | 150,163,698 | ||||||
Industry | $ | 3,443 | $ | 3,034 | $ | 3,472 | 13.5 | % | -0.8 | % | $ | 4,545,210,258 | ||||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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