It's been a busy weekend. Last Wednesday, we put up our Watch List for 2018 and we had about a dozen trade ideas, right off the bat, that we were adding to our Long-Term Portfolio and Options Opportunity Portfolio. Over the weekend, we've added 10 more actionable trade ideas for the OOP and LTP - so don't complain there's nothing to buy in this toppy market – we even had a nice hedging play for you on Friday . While we're still expecting a correction – it's likely to be just another buying opportunity in a generally bullish market . Considering how sure I am that we're going to have a 10% correction this quarter, I was actually surprised at how many stocks there are trading for good prices. Granted, I was looking at thousdands of stocks and found only dozens to buy – but I thought we'd find far fewer than that. I suppose it's because the rally has been fairly narrow in scope – leaving many good stocks behind in favor of chasing the popular stocks to new highs. It's still too scary to short things, which is a shame – because there are so many things that are tempting to short like Tesla (TSLA) at $316 (always a good short), Amazon (AMZN) at $1,230 ($600Bn!), Netflix (NFLX) at $210 and whatever Uber is currently trading for! We'll get AMZN's numbers at the end of the month but, last I heard, they should be about $60Bn in sales and $1Bn in profit for the quarter, which will put them up around $2Bn for the year or less than $5 per $1,230 share so it will only take AMZN 246 years to pay back investors at that pace. The investing premise on AMZN is, of course, that they will grow into their valuation but then their valuation jumps was faster than their growth – up 50% in 2017, in fact – yet people just keep snapping it up – with half of that growth coming since October. How will Amazon justify a $600Bn valuation? It's earning $2Bn now and it's selling about $180Bn a year worth of stuff while WalMart (WMT) sells $500Bn so let's say AMZN gets as big as WMT …
It's been a busy weekend.
Last Wednesday, we put up our Watch List for 2018 and we had about a dozen trade ideas, right off the bat, that we were adding to our Long-Term Portfolio and Options Opportunity Portfolio. Over the weekend, we've added 10 more actionable trade ideas for the OOP and LTP - so don't complain there's nothing to buy in this toppy market – we even had a nice hedging play for you on Friday. While we're still expecting a correction – it's likely to be just another buying opportunity in a generally bullish market.
Considering how sure I am that we're going to have a 10% correction this quarter, I was actually surprised at how many stocks there are trading for good prices. Granted, I was looking at thousdands of stocks and found only dozens to buy – but I thought we'd find far fewer than that. I suppose it's because the rally has been fairly narrow in scope – leaving many good stocks behind in favor of chasing the popular stocks to new highs.
It's still too scary to short things, which is a shame – because there are so many things that are tempting to short like Tesla (TSLA) at $316 (always a good short), Amazon (AMZN) at $1,230 ($600Bn!), Netflix (NFLX) at $210 and whatever Uber is currently trading for! We'll get AMZN's numbers at the end of the month but, last I heard, they should be about $60Bn in sales and $1Bn in profit for the quarter, which will put them up around $2Bn for the year or less than $5 per $1,230 share so it will only take AMZN 246 years to pay back investors at that pace.
The investing premise on AMZN is, of course, that they will grow into their valuation but then their valuation jumps was faster than their growth – up 50% in 2017, in fact – yet people just keep snapping it up – with half of that growth coming since October.
How will Amazon justify a $600Bn valuation? It's earning $2Bn now and it's selling about $180Bn a year worth of stuff while WalMart (WMT) sells $500Bn so let's say AMZN gets as big as WMT…
