The Next Recession: When It Will Happen and How to Prepare

I’ve been thinking a lot about recessions lately. It’s pretty hard not to, because warnings about recessions are coming from financial pundits and big banks with increasing frequency. Most recently, an economist at Citigroup warned in a research note that a recession was likely to come in the next 18 months, because the US Treasury yield curve is flattening. This person isn’t a lone wolf. Many economists, including a lot of wonks at the Federal Reserve, are fiercely debating whether our flattening yield curve is a sign that a recession is around the corner. And the fear is intensifying, since the difference between the yield on the two-year and 10-year Treasuries is a meager 25 basis points, the narrowest in over a decade.… Read more