These 10 emerging markets will dominate the global economy in the next decade

AP Photo/Manish Swarup

• Most of the top 10 fastest growing emerging market economies are in Asia, in line with expectations that the region is the future of the global economy. 
• India claimed top spot in the rankings compiled by Oxford Economics. 
• The rankings take into account factors beyond just GDP figures and also look at funding availability and workforce growth. 

Rankings of the biggest growth stars in emerging markets sees India take top spot in the next decade, according to Oxford Economics. 

Figures compiled by the research firm indicate that Asian economies will be the most successful emerging markets by 2028 with only one South American country and no African countries in thhe top 10. 

Oxford Economics cites the need for emerging markets to undergo rapid capital accumulation through domestic financing to succeed alongside strong GDP and robust total factor productivity (TFP) growth.

A sizeable export sector is seen as a key factor in avoiding the middle-income trap — wherein countries get stuck at one size for long periods of time — with the main way of aiding this coming from investment in innovation. 

According to Oxford Economics, capital deepening stems from investment, the bulk of which has to be financed by domestic saving.

Here are the 10 fastest growing emerging market economies: 

Oxford Economics have South Africa as the 10th fastest emerging market economy on the list with average annual GDP growth of 2.3%. It's the only African country on the list, and suffers from a lack of capital deepening, a statistic designed to understand the value of the labour pool. 

Europe's only entry in the top 10 is Poland. The country has been in a remarkable growth cycle since its admittance to the European Union, with the Eastern European country expected to maintain 2.5% GDP growth with high capital deepening courtesy of strong access to the European banking sector and its use of the euro. 

South America's only entry on the list is Chile with the country deemed to be a more attractive emerging market growth story than nearby Argentina and Brazil. The country is a mining giant and looks set to be at the forefront of the lithium battery market going forward. Oxford economics predicts a 2.6% GDP average growth rate. 

The so-called "land of smiles" is one of the world's fastest growing emerging markets with 2.9% GDP growth expected. Tourism makes up around 11% of GDP output with numbers increasing every year. In the previous decade Thailand's labour productivity growth was below the trend for comparable emerging markets' GDP growth, but this is expected to change going forward. 

Located at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, Turkey is an emerging market tour de force with its rollercoaster currency and unstable markets a hallmark of the country. However, Oxford Economics thinks the country will grow at around 3% a year. Turkey's comes in lower for capital deepening as a result of its reliance on foreign funding, which saw a crisis in 2018 during the lira's turmoil. 

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