Economists predict the US economy to enter a recession by 2021

While experts such as Payden & Rygel Chief Economist, Jeffrey Cleveland, have said that the US economy should make it through 2019 without a recession, over 60 percent of economists have predicted that the economy will enter a recession by 2021. This is according to a survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), which showed that only 10 percent of respondents talked about the possibility of the economy entering a recession in 2019 with 42 percent predicting a downturn in 2020, and 25 percent of economists predicting a recession would occur in 2021.

One of the major concerns for experts is the trade war between the U.S. and China that continues to loom, with more than half of respondents citing the existing tariffs as a major factor that would negatively affect GDP growth in 2019 by a minimum of 25 basis points. Some experts even stated that the tariffs could lead to an increase in inflation. This is in addition to 50% of economists expecting global growth to slow with 25% of them suggesting that it could dip below 3 percent.

The concerns of economic experts particularly surrounding U.S. trade relations and decelerating global growth was substantiated with the stock market entering a volatile period in the latter part of last year.

Respondents in the survey also expressed their concerns about a growing budget deficit with the belief that the administration’s tax law and spending policies will cause it to increase relative to GDP. However, it is not all gloomy for the U.S. economy as panelists cited some positives for the growth of the economy, one of which is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The Trump administration’s deregulation efforts have also been viewed as a positive for the economy.

The Commerce Department is set to release an advance reading for fourth quarter GDP this week, which was previously delayed due to a record-long partial government shutdown.

More economic news and other related information about Singapore and the economic situation in Asia, as well as the services offered by Phillip Private Equity, can be found on their website.

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Source: www.abnewswire.com

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