17
WuXi:
Excessive Valuation on Aggressive Assumptions
„ Proposed WX
acquisition price is excessive at 16x 2010 EBITDA — nearly 56x “cash”
earnings(1) —
and
relative
to CRL’s high single-digit EBITDA multiple valuation
§ Compounded by
issuing stock well below intrinsic value(2) and when preclinical
earnings down 50%
§ WX CEO sold stock
more than 50% below CRL offer price; offer price is minimal premium to
post-IPO
private
equity investor initial cost, suggesting future standalone business prospects
are very
challenging
„ Despite raising 2010
guidance, WX projections are aggressive, requiring reversal of negative trends
and
robust
results from unproven businesses
§ Assume
reacceleration in revenue growth (after deceleration) and margin improvement
(gross margin
declining
annually since 2003 with management guiding a further decline for 2010) despite
labor cost
inflation
in China pressuring margins
§ “To reach
expectations will require sustainable Lab services growth and successful
execution in two
relatively
early stage businesses (tox and manufacturing) while driving margin expansion in
the face of
pricing
pressure.”(3)
§ “WX's new guidance
is still well below the forecasts given…This makes the 6/1 proxy
forecasts
aggressive.”(4)
„ WX’s primary
competitive advantages of scale and cost and are not sustainable, putting
projections at risk
§ Chinese competitors
reaching scale (#2 competitor employing almost half the chemists as WX)
impacting
WX margins
§ India offers a
promising new geography given lower labor costs and highly skilled
workforce
(1) See JANA 13D, June
16, 2010 for “cash” earnings calculation.
(2) “[A] split of CRL
could unlock shareholder value that is equivalent to $47 per share”; “CRL: Time
to unlock value; we see $6/share from recap, $11/share from an RMS/PCS
split”;
Stephen
Unger, William Hite; Lazard Capital Markets, Inc., June 17, 2010.
(3) “Merger assumptions
leave little room for error”; Eric Lo, Eric H. Chang; Bank of America Merrill
Lynch, June 2, 2010.
(4) “Pre-announcement
Adds Arrow to CRL Quiver”; David Windley, Timothy C. Evans, Andrew Hilgenbrink;
Jefferies & Company Inc., July, 15 2010.
Even
assuming strategic benefits from the WuXi deal, excessive price destroys
shareholder value.