6
„ CRL’s
standalone earnings prospects are highly attractive given recovery from cyclical
low in preclinical (and
minimal
reinvestment requirements), yet CRL relies on overly conservative assumptions to
understate this potential
§ “Consensus” I/B/E/S
long-term growth rate is inconsistently applied. WX’s
17.2% rate is used in WX projections, but
CRL’s
12.6% rate (which is cited by CRL in its analysis on page 5 and is consistent
with CRL’s disclosed internal
forecast)
is discarded in projecting CRL earnings growth(1)
§ CRL standalone
growth rate assumptions of 0% or 5% for both revenues and EPS are preposterous
given that CRL’s
own
standalone high single-digit revenue growth guidance suggests double-digit EPS
growth with operational leverage,
and
that consensus estimates and CRL’s own standalone 2011 EPS forecast of $2.70
have a higher EPS growth
trajectory
§ Also, implied core
earnings would decline under 0% revenue
growth case, which is indefensible given that the preclinical
business
is at a cyclical low and that debt pay downs and growth in balance sheet cash
will also drive earnings growth
„ However,
CRL uses highly aggressive WX assumptions to inflate potential earnings
accretion from a WX acquisition
§ WX 2010-2012
projections were prepared by WX without any adjustment from CRL and are well
above Street projections
§ CRL applies 17.2%
long-term growth rate to these already aggressive 2012 WX estimates, yet the
average growth in
2012-2015
operating EPS for analysts who project this period is only 12%(2)
§ CRL assumes that
only
WX will
benefit from operating leverage, with projections assuming material operating
leverage
(2012
revenue growth of 15% compared to operating income growth of 21%)
„ Buyback
assumptions understate earnings potential of standalone buyback
§ Share repurchase
scenario (which provides for a substantially larger 2011 buyback than share
repurchase combined with
a WX
transaction scenario given debt limitation) is assumed to occur at $41.75 (5%
premium to CRL’s 4/23/10 stock
price),
which is a staggering 23% premium to CRL’s current stock price. A
buyback at a 5% premium to 7/21/10 price
increases
standalone buyback scenario 2015 EPS accretion by 12%-15% leaving all other
assumptions constant
Invalid
and Unreasonable Assumptions
(1) See CRL 8-K filed
with the SEC on June 25, 2010 for internal forecast.
(2) Based on Goldman
Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Jefferies 2012-2015 growth rates of 19%, 12%, and 6%
respectively.
Charles
River Assertion: “The
Transaction Adds Meaningfully to CRL’s Standalone Long-Term Earnings Growth ”
(page 7)
Fact: Higher projected
earnings from WX transaction are derived from invalid and unreasonable
assumptions