The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 16-Apr-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. A trifecta of woesWhat’s bothering the stock market? Stock prices have had to contend with a trifecta of woes:
- Fear of a hawkish pivot by the Fed;
- Strong USD; and
- Geopolitical risk and rising oil prices.
The stock market is very oversold and ripe for a relief rally. The key question is: does the bounce represent a durable bottom or is there more downside ahead?
The full post can be found here.
