Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) Pre-Earnings Moves: Buy or Watch?

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has shown impressive returns, clocking a staggering 101.9% increase over the past year and gaining a 14.5% boost since the outset of 2024. Known for its stronghold in the rapidly advancing weight-loss pharmaceutical sector, Eli Lilly leads the pack. Its extensive range of drugs, reinforced by a well-stocked development pipeline, is expected to underscore future expansion.

The firm's bullish streak isn't predicted to flag anytime soon, as the stock looks set to strike fresh ascents repeatedly in 2024.

LLY’s third-quarter financial results surpassed predictions, spurred primarily by the sales of its frontline diabetes medication, Mounjaro. Other drug candidates, including the innovative breast cancer treatment Verzenio, also boosted revenue growth, with sales surging by 68% to reach an emphatic $1.04 billion for the quarter.

In the quarter, the pharma behemoth reported revenue of $9.50 billion, marking a 37% surge from the same period in the previous year. The company reiterated its annual revenue forecast, earmarking an ambitious $33.4 billion to $33.9 billion target.

However, LLY slashed its full-year profit guidance due to charges primarily related to its recent acquisitions. The company lowered its 2023 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $6.50 to $6.70 from a previous range of $9.70 to $9.90 per share.

Industry analysts closely monitoring LLY envision an increase of 22.9% and 13.3% for the firm's revenue and EPS respectively, predicting totals of $8.97 billion and $2.37 in the quarter ended December 2023.

The forecasted fourth-quarter 2023 financial results, alongside the 2024 financial projections, are set for public announcement on February 6, 2024. With a robust drug development pipeline in place and firm footing in the thriving weight-management market, Eli Lilly is poised to drive sustained revenue growth. These impressive fundamentals make LLY an appealing choice in today's pharmaceutical market. A more detailed investigation of their performance indicators may offer valuable insights.

Eli Lilly and Company Financial Performance: An In-depth Analysis from March 2021 to September 2023

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)'s trailing-12-month Revenue trend shows a consistent upward trajectory from March 2021 to September 2023, with slight fluctuations.

• March 2021: The Revenue began at $25.49 billion.
• June 2021: It grew slightly to reach $26.73 billion.
• September 2021: This upward trend continued with Revenue reaching $27.76 billion.
• December 2021: A slight increase was observed as it reached $28.32 billion. Starting from 2022, there were minor fluctuations in the Revenue trends, yet the overall growth was maintained:
• March 2022: An upward surge was significant, taking the Revenue to reach $29.32 billion.
• June 2022: Interestingly, a slight decline was witnessed that brought the Revenue down to $29.07 billion.
• September 2022: However, it quickly recovered and slightly increased to $29.24 billion.
• December 2022: By the end of the year, the Revenue dropped again to $28.54 billion. In 2023, there was a noticeable recovery and significant growth in the Revenue.
• March 2023: A decrease was observed and the Revenue dropped to $27.69 billion.
• June 2023: Quickly bouncing back, by mid-year, the Revenue shot up significantly to $29.52 billion.
• September 2023: The most significant growth within the reported period was witnessed here with the Revenue reaching a peak value of $32.07 billion. The calculated growth rate, measuring from the first to the last value, shows a substantial increase of approximately 28.30%. Consequently, LLY has demonstrated a strong performance in terms of Revenue over the observed period.

The Gross Margin of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) displayed nuanced fluctuations but overall exhibited a consistent increase from March 31, 2021 to September 30, 2023.

• At the start of the series on March 31, 2021, the Gross Margin was 75.9%
• There was a slight decrease to 74.3% by June 30, 2021
• The margin rose slightly to 74.8% by September 30, 2021
• However, there was an insignificant drop to 74.2% by the end of 2021
• Throughout 2022, the margin increased from 74.4% in March to 76.8% by the end of the year
• In 2023, the growth continued with a notable surge to 78.7% by September 30

More emphasis should be placed on the final value of the series, which shows Eli Lilly's Gross Margin standing at 78.7% as of September 30, 2023. This indicates a positive trend in profitability, compared to the company's starting point of 75.9% in 2021, marking a growth rate of approximately 3.7%. It is important to note that while there has been overall growth in LLY's gross margin, the fluctuation suggests variable operating efficiency or possible changes in the company's product mix or pricing over time.

The DPS (Dividends Per Share) of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has displayed an observable upward trend from March 2021 to September 2023, during which the data points are recorded. As noteworthy highlights:

• In March 2021, the DPS began at $3.07
• By the end of 2022, it had increased significantly to $4.07
• The highest value so far recorded is in September 2023, at $4.37

Visibly, there has been consistent quarter-on-quarter growth, with minor fluctuations, over this period. The DPS generally shows a remarkable and consistent increase across consecutive quarters, indicating promising growth potential for shareholders.

The growth rate, calculated by subtracting the first value from the last, suggests an impressive rise from $3.07 in March 2021 to $4.37 in September 2023.

This represents an overall growth of approximately $1.3 or about 42% over this period. Greater emphasis on the more recent performances indicates ongoing positive momentum in DPS growth.

Notably, the DPS stood steady at $4.07 from December 2022 to March 2023, before showing further increase to $4.22 in June 2023 and finally culminating at $4.37 in September 2023. In summary, the DPS of Eli Lilly and Company has exhibited a robust upward trend with modest fluctuations over the timeline from March 2021 to September 2023.

The Analyst Price Target of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) demonstrates a general upward trend from November 2021 to January 2024, with some fluctuations. Here are the key points:

• Starting at $278.17 in November 2021, the Analyst Price Target experienced a steady increase, peaking at $300 in February 2022.
• After a slight dip to $297.45 in March 2022, the target increased again, reaching $322.5 by June 2022.
• There was significant growth between July and December of 2022, with the price target ending the year at $387.64, which indicates a growth rate of 39.36% compared to the first value.
• The year 2023 showed an overall increase despite minor fluctuations, moving from $398 in January to impending $650 in January 2024.

The most recent data from January 2024 reveals an Analyst Price Target of $650 for LLY, suggesting positive sentiment towards the company's performance. From the beginning until the most recent data, there has been an overall growth of approximately 134%, indicating significant confidence in the increasing value of LLY.

Analyzing Eli Lilly's Stock Performance: August 2023 - February 2024 Trend Review

The provided data reflects the share price of LLY between August 2023 and February 2024. An overview of significant movements and general trends in the data includes:

• Starting at a share price of $526.04 on August 11, 2023, the value of Eli Lilly shares increased steadily throughout the month, reaching $551.26 by August 25, 2023.
• The growth trend continued into early September, with a peak value at $592.82 on September 15, 2023. However, a downturn occurred subsequently, and by October 6, 2023, the price had dropped to $537.39.
• A sharp rebound was witnessed by mid-October, with the stock price surging to $594.73 on October 13, 2023 and hitting a new high of $601.48 by October 20, 2023. This growth, however, did not last, and the end of October saw another dip down to $578.54.
• Fluctuations between mid-$500 and low-$600 range marked the price movement for the rest of 2023, ending the year on a slightly lower note of $578.46 on December 29, 2023.
• The new year heralded robust growth for LLY's stock value, with a consistent rising trend observed throughout January 2024, progressing from $610.43 at the start to an all-time high of $651.63 by February 2, 2024.

In terms of growth rate, there is clear evidence of an overall upward trend in the share price of Eli Lilly and Company during this period. However, this trend was marked by periods of volatility, with alternating phases of growth and decline. By the end of the specified period, the stock had risen significantly from its initial value, underscoring a robust positive growth rate. Here is a chart of LLY's price over the past 180 days.

Analyzing Eli Lilly's Fluctuating Growth, Quality, and Sentiment Ratings Over Months

LLY has an overall B rating, translating to a Buy in our POWR Ratings system. It is ranked #35 out of 163 stocks in the Medical - Pharmaceuticals industry.

Analyzing the POWR Ratings for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), three dimensions particularly stand out based on their values. These are Growth, Quality, and Sentiment.

Growth

• On August 31, 2023, the Growth rating had a value of 92.
• The Growth dimension witnessed a rise in September 2023, reaching 95, though it then decreased to 73 in October 2023.
• Despite a slight uptick to 76 in November 2023, followed by 82 in both December 2023 and January 12, 2024, the overall trend for the Growth rating revealed a decline over this period.

Quality

• The Quality dimension started strong with a score of 91 as of August 31, 2023.
• It maintained this high rating in September 2023 but showed a decrement from October 2023 onwards.
• By January 12, 2024, Quality had fallen slightly to 80, indicating a downward trend across these months.

Sentiment

• In August 2023, the Sentiment rating for Eli Lilly and Company was at a high of 93.
• However, by September 2023, it dropped significantly to 79 and further dropped to 69 in October 2023.
• Though it revived and achieved scores of 79, 84, and 80 in November and December 2023, and January 2024 respectively, Sentiment also showed a clearly fluctuating trend overall. These dimensions are of notable interest due to their high ratings and the clear trends preserved over these months.

How does Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stack Up Against its Peers?

Other stocks in the Medical – Pharmaceuticals sector that may be worth considering are Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), Novartis AG (NVS) and Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TARO) -- they have better POWR Ratings.

What To Do Next?

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LLY shares were trading at $708.72 per share on Monday afternoon, up $41.07 (+6.15%). Year-to-date, LLY has gained 21.58%, versus a 3.91% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Subhasree’s keen interest in financial instruments led her to pursue a career as an investment analyst. After earning a Master’s degree in Economics, she gained knowledge of equity research and portfolio management at Finlatics.

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