Congress does not return to session until Sept. 9, and the only thing the House and Senate must absolutely do the rest of the year is fund the government.
The problem is that Congress does not have until Dec. 31.
The government’s fiscal year deadline is Oct. 1.
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As per usual, expect a veritable adventure between now and October – if not the end of the year and maybe into 2025 – over how Congress might sidestep a government shutdown.
The House Freedom Caucus issued an ultimatum. The coalition of the House’s most-conservative members wrote to House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., demanding a simple renewal of existing funding at current levels – known as a Continuing Resolution (CR) – through "early 2025." The Freedom Caucus is banking on a return of former President Donald Trump to the White House – to say nothing of the supposition that Republicans will hold the House and flip the Senate. Recent polling is starting to favor Vice President Kamala Harris. The chances of Republicans holding the House are a jump ball at best – and may trend toward Democrats. Political handicappers have long favored Republicans to seize control of the Senate, but that’s not a done deal, either.
The Freedom Caucus believes the GOP will seize the major levers of government and can implement the spending package it wants next year. Johnson is certainly entertaining this possibility. And he may be wise to do so, considering the rambunctious nature of the House Republican Conference. More on that in a moment. But many Republicans, especially members of the Appropriations Committee, aren’t on board with the Freedom Caucus strategy. And those same Republicans doubt that Senate Democrats would ever abide such a plan. In short, some Republicans and lots of Democrats would prefer a short-term CR that runs through mid-November or December. Then work out the bills individually and pass everything, en masse, in an omnibus before the end of the calendar year.
Then no one needs to worry about funding the government until next Oct. 1.
Which is precisely the concern in conservative circles.
First, many Freedom Caucus members abhor the concept of any omnibus spending bill. Even a few "minibus" spending bills, with a handful of appropriations measures tucked into each legislative vehicle. Secondly, with President Biden still in the White House and Democrats at the helm of the Senate, conservatives believe a longer CR which stretches into the new year short-circuits how long liberal and progressive spending policies might remain in effect. Republicans can nip these in January with a CR which lasts until then. But if lawmakers adopt a short-term CR through late fall and then mash all of the spending plans together at once before handing over the keys to a new Congress and new President next year, Democratic spending priorities remain in place until the autumn of 2025.
This is counterintuitive, but conservatives believe an elongated CR actually helps them more in the short-term.
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The question is what path Johnson might choose.
Johnson caught flak from conservatives for doing a number of short-term spending bills last fall, through the winter and into the spring to avoid multiple forays into a government shutdown. He also fielded criticism for allowing a bill to aid Ukraine to come to the floor. And don’t forget that simply advancing a short-term spending bill last year cost former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., his gavel. So, Johnson must be mindful of which course he takes.
But the question of how to fund the government might be laced with questions about the future of the House Republican leadership. It’s hard to see how Johnson is able to punt into next year. He’ll need House Democrats and certainly buy-in from the Senate for that. But let’s say Johnson somehow pulls that off and scores a longer-term CR. If that’s the case, the government is funded and Johnson likely protects himself from political challenges on the right.
The House will elect a speaker on Jan. 3, the start of the new Congress. First, Republicans must be in the majority. If former President Trump wins, he might dictate whether Johnson or someone else becomes speaker. However, what happens if Democrats win the House and/or Vice President Harris prevails? Does Johnson become the Minority Leader?
What is past could be prologue. After the McCarthy experience, how Johnson handles the CR might dictate his future. That said, it is tougher to become House speaker than Minority Leader. Johnson or anyone else needs an outright majority of the entire House (Democrats and Republicans casting ballots) to become speaker. That’s a high bar. but the Minority Leader only requires a simple majority of their respective conference or caucus. That race isn’t decided on the floor.
Regardless, even if some conservatives disagree with how Johnson addresses government funding, they don’t have the stomach to go through another protracted leadership battle. Many House Republicans suffer from "PTSD." Or, as we might call it on Capitol Hill, "Post Traumatic Speaker Disorder." So while some conservatives might not fully embrace whatever decision Johnson makes, they’re not willing to engage in another donnybrook over who will lead House Republicans.
Moreover, the tactics of the right and the Freedom Caucus exhausted some rank-and-file Republicans and GOP members of the Appropriations Committee. Many Republicans point to the schism in the party over the Freedom Caucus approach. One senior GOP appropriator noted that Freedom Caucus members might not support whatever spending plan Republican leaders concoct – simply because they oppose most everything. So they aren’t willing to kowtow to the right.
There’s a push by some Republicans to latch an election integrity bill to a stopgap spending bill. The plan would bar noncitizens from voting in federal elections – even though that’s already illegal. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray, D-Wash., characterized the election bill demand as a "political scare tactic" and a "poison pill."
Like their criticism of McCarthy, conservatives are upset that Johnson "worked with Democrats" or "worked with the Senate." Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., tried to strip Johnson of the speaker’s gavel earlier this year for forging bipartisan spending pacts with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. The outcome of the election will dictate how much sway voices like Greene have.
But before the election, Congress must figure out how to avoid a government shutdown. And lawmakers, incoming lawmakers and even an incoming President will likely litigate the consequences of those decisions later this year and early next.
