LegalShield Index: Economic Worries Fuel Surge in Consumer Stress in July; Points to Dead Heat in White House Race

• Largest 1-month jump in the national Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) since 2002; rising unemployment, bankruptcy and housing issues drive jump
• 2024 Election: Legal stress in battleground states outpaces the national average signaling a dead heat
• Legal needs of everyday Americans track with political outcomes in past five presidential elections

The LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI), a study that tracks about 150,000 calls per month from everyday Americans seeking legal help, jumped at a record pace matching the single highest monthly rise in December 2002.

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LegalShield reports sharpest monthly rise in consumer stress since 2002. (Graphic: Business Wire)

“The July surge tells a story of a kitchen table economy that contrasts with key positive macro indicators including falling producer and consumer inflation and a stock market trading at near record highs,” said Matt Layton, LegalShield senior vice president of consumer analytics.

This story may also foreshadow the results of the 2024 presidential election.

Key drivers of the jump in consumer stress, as revealed by legal inquiries from LegalShield members, include layoffs, rising consumer debt, bankruptcy and housing issues.

“I’m talking to a lot of people who lost their job and need to review a separation agreement and navigate unemployment,” said Mike DuPont, general partner of LegalShield provider firm Wagner, Falconer & Judd, Ltd. serving Wisconsin, Minnesota and Montana. “Others can’t pay rent and are looking for options. With persistent inflation, rising consumer debt, and increased layoffs I expect to see these issues continue through at least the end of the year.”

LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) rose 5.8 points in July to 67.6, the highest reading since November 2020 and the highest single month increase in over two decades.

2002 and 2024 Compared

“Late 2002 possesses some parallels to our current economic situation, namely consumer pressure from inflation and upticks in unemployment,” said Layton. “Just as economists debate whether we’re facing recessionary pressures, they were evaluating mixed signals in 2002.”

LegalShield’s CSLI is based on a dataset of more than 35 million consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002. The index is built on three sub-indices tracking calls for legal assistance for issues related to Bankruptcy, Foreclosure and Consumer Finance.

All three subindices increased in July, topping levels seen in recent years.

• The Bankruptcy subindex went up 6.1 points to 35.6, posting its highest level since February 2020, the largest single month increase since July of that year.

• The Foreclosure subindex was up 6.0 points to 42.3, the largest month-over-month increase since November 2020, and its highest level since last December.

• The Consumer Finance subindex, which measures inquiries regarding a variety of consumer financial concerns such as billing disputes and loan modifications, was up 2.4 points to 104.1. That marks the largest one-month jump since June 2023 and highest reading since December 2023.

2024 Election: Stress in Battleground States Rising Faster

Consumer legal stress in battleground states outpaced the national rise, with legal stress in battleground states now almost even with the national average.

In each presidential election year since 2004, when battleground states exhibited higher stress compared to the national average in October and November, a Republican was elected; and when battleground states exhibited lower stress than the nation, a Democrat won.

“July marked the largest stress increase in battleground states since we started tallying the data more than 22 years ago,” said Layton. “Our data doesn’t rely on feelings about who is in office, who is running for office, or who may win in November. The legal needs of everyday Americans, based on their outreach to our provider attorneys, track with voting behavior in the past five elections.”

After sitting 5.0 points below the national average in June, the CSLI in battleground states rose 10.5 points to 67.3, 0.3 points shy of the national average.

This election cycle, LegalShield is reporting consumer stress levels on a politically geographic basis, separating red, blue, and purple battleground states. LegalShield classified states based on the outcome of the 2020 election. Battleground states for 2024 are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Legal Stress Correlates to Voting Behavior

“July’s significant increase in battleground stress bucked a 4-month trend of consumer stress sitting well below the national average, putting the race for the White House in a dead heat,” said Layton. “But just as we saw this month, anything can change as we head into the heart of the election season.”

About the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index:

As part of LegalShield’s mission to ensure every person has equal access to justice, we mine our data for insights policymakers can use to make a real, positive impact in their decision making. Released monthly, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index is comprised of three subindices which reflect the demand for various legal services. LegalShield’s dataset includes more than 35 million consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002, averaging approximately 150,000 calls received monthly. The CSLI uncovers the daily challenges people are facing and provides actionable intelligence to help policymakers and industry leaders bridge those gaps.

About LegalShield:

For more than 50 years, LegalShield has provided everyday Americans with easy and affordable access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation. Serving millions, LegalShield is one of the world's largest platforms for legal, identity, and reputation management services protecting individuals and businesses across North America. Founded in 1972, LegalShield, and its privacy management product, IDShield, has provided individuals, families, businesses, and employers with tools and services needed to affordably live a just and secure life. Through technology and innovation, LegalShield is disrupting the traditional legal system and transforming how and where people receive legal guidance and services, with access to thousands of qualified, trusted attorneys and law firms. LegalShield and IDShield are products of Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. To learn more about LegalShield and IDShield, visit LegalShield.com and IDShield.com.

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