Match Group’s third quarter results met Wall Street’s revenue expectations, reflecting early progress on the company’s turnaround strategy. Management attributed performance to product updates at Tinder and Hinge, which focused on enhancing user experience and trust. CEO Spencer Rascoff highlighted features like the AI-powered Chemistry tool on Tinder and new prompt-driven profile elements that are improving user engagement. While payers declined year over year, Rascoff emphasized that “Sparks”—a proxy for meaningful conversations—have increased among Gen Z users, suggesting that core user experiences are resonating despite lower overall active users.
Is now the time to buy MTCH? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Match Group (MTCH) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $914.3 million vs analyst estimates of $914.3 million (2.1% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.83 vs analyst expectations of $0.91 (9.4% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $301.4 million vs analyst estimates of $333.2 million (33% margin, 9.6% miss)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $870 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $885.7 million
- EBITDA guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $352.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $341.2 million
- Operating Margin: 24.2%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Payers: 14.53 million, down 687,000 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $7.86 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Match Group’s Q3 Earnings Call
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Cory Carpenter (JPMorgan) asked about the “green shoots” in user engagement at Tinder; CEO Spencer Rascoff pointed to improved product efficacy metrics, especially Sparks among Gen Z, driven by updated recommendation algorithms and new features like Double Date.
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Nathaniel Feather (Morgan Stanley) asked how prioritizing user outcomes may affect revenue; Rascoff explained that ongoing product tests could create short-term revenue headwinds, but management is focused on long-term user and revenue growth, with the impact to be reassessed after further testing.
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Kunal Madhukar (Deutsche Bank) inquired about Hinge’s engagement profile and international opportunity; Rascoff said Hinge’s clear positioning as an intentional dating app remains unchanged, with strong launches in Mexico and plans for Brazil supporting optimism about global expansion.
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Ygal Arounian (Citi) questioned the timeline for stabilizing and growing monthly active users; Rascoff noted some product improvements have a short-term negative effect on active users but improve engagement quality, and that stabilization is now visible in key metrics.
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Chris Kuntarich (UBS) asked about the rollout of Face Check and marketing efficiency; Rascoff clarified Face Check is for new accounts to stop bad actors, and Project Prism has helped identify more effective marketing spend, especially for brands like Hinge.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our analyst team will watch for (1) the impact of product rollouts such as Chemistry and expanded Modes on user engagement and payer trends, (2) the pace and success of Hinge’s international market entries and their contribution to growth, and (3) further adoption and financial impact of alternative payment solutions. Execution of new trust and safety features and continued cost discipline will also be key performance indicators.
Match Group currently trades at $33.31, up from $31.58 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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