Bitcoin price ahead of FOMC: Analyst says “you’d rather see 25bps than 0 bps”

By: Invezz

March 22, 2023 at 13:08 PM EDT

People Walk Past Federal Reserve Building

Bitcoin continues to trade above $28,000 as markets brace for today’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision. BTC price reached a high of $28,900 on Wednesday, pumping to the multi-month high as the broader market awaits the March interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve.

Crypto analyst shares BTC outlook ahead of FOMC

According to van de Poppe, the key price level to watch for Bitcoin remains the $28,700 level.

Slow grind upwards on #Bitcoin, which means that my eyes are still focused on $28,700.

I'm expecting us to sweep into that high around FOMC and then we'll have some consolidation.

CME gap at $28,700 too. pic.twitter.com/S69nHS0UZ2

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 22, 2023

As has been highlighted variously throughout the past few days, the Fed’s interest rate decision is coming on the back of mayhem in the global banking industry. Market experts suggest the Fed is likely to go for a 25-basis point hike, or possibly zero.

Here is what crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe said earlier today.

“My projection for today is that I’ll expect the FED to continue hiking. Most likely it will be 25bps, next could be 50 bps and only 0 bps as a third option. This will ultimately result into correction on the markets, but you’d rather want to see 25bps than 0 bps.”

What’s the possible scenario for BTC then? Going by market sentiment, Bitcoin could continue its upward grind with 25 bps priced in, or pump if the Fed suggests things are bad for the market by going for a pause. A surprise 50 bps will likely tank markets, with BTC potentially mirroring broader sell-off pressure.

What have experts said about FOMC and market outlook?

Fundstrat Global Advisors Managing Partner and Head of Research Tom Lee says the onus is on the Fed, with hindsight to recent market events.

“Today is FOMC decision day. Market’s focus is +25bp or pause. More important question is, does the Fed want financial conditions to ‘tighten’ or not?”

According to Lee, the bond market is fragile and a falling S&P 500 could very well “fuel greater panic among depositors.”

Former Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosegen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” earlier today that the Fed was likely to pause. However, their language could clarify that if inflation continues higher with the current turmoil resolved, the central bank could go back to raising rates.

"They'll pause but they'll pause with language that makes it very clear if the turmoil gets resolved and inflation continues to be a problem, they will quickly go back on track to raising rates," says Fmr. @BostonFed Pres. Eric Rosengren. pic.twitter.com/FDVteX9bTx

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) March 22, 2023

However, the expectation is heavily skewed towards 25 bps given last week’s surprise 50 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank. Noah Blackstein, Senior Portfolio Manager at Dynamic Funds to l d CNBC on Wednesday:

“I think the Fed will go for 25 basis points…but I really don’t think they should raise at all. You know more recently I’ve heard of this theme – between financial stability and price stability. It’s some kind of economic trade-off, but in reality, there are long lags to what the Fed has done and there are clearly credit problems. They could make a difficult situation a lot worse.”

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Bitcoin price ahead of FOMC: Analyst says “you’d rather see 25bps than 0 bps”