e10vq
FORM 10-Q
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
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þ |
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QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 |
For the quarterly period ended SEPTEMBER 30, 2008
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o |
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TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 |
For the transition period from to
Commission file number 1-10816
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
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WISCONSIN
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39-1486475 |
(State or other jurisdiction of
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(I.R.S. Employer |
incorporation or organization)
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Identification No.) |
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250 E. KILBOURN AVENUE
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53202 |
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN
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(Zip Code) |
(Address of principal executive offices) |
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(414) 347-6480
(Registrants telephone number, including area code)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by
Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for
such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been
subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.
YES þ NO o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a
non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company. See the definitions of large accelerated
filer, accelerated filer and smaller reporting company in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
(Check one):
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Large accelerated filer þ |
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Accelerated filer o |
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Non-accelerated filer o
(Do not check if a smaller reporting company) |
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Smaller reporting company o |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the
Exchange Act).
YES o NO þ
Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the issuers classes of common stock, as of
the latest practicable date.
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CLASS OF STOCK |
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PAR VALUE |
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DATE |
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NUMBER OF SHARES |
Common stock
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$1.00
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|
10/31/08
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125,068,464 |
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
ITEM 1. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
September 30, 2008 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2007
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September 30, |
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December 31, |
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2008 |
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2007 |
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|
(In thousands of dollars) |
|
ASSETS |
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|
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Investment portfolio (note 7): |
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Securities, available-for-sale, at fair value: |
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
Fixed maturities (amortized cost, 2008-$6,810,664; 2007-$5,791,562) |
|
$ |
6,637,243 |
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|
$ |
5,893,591 |
|
Equity securities (cost, 2008-$2,754; 2007-$2,689) |
|
|
2,600 |
|
|
|
2,642 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total investment portfolio |
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|
6,639,843 |
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|
5,896,233 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
1,088,034 |
|
|
|
288,933 |
|
Accrued investment income |
|
|
93,132 |
|
|
|
72,829 |
|
Reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
|
|
324,373 |
|
|
|
35,244 |
|
Prepaid reinsurance premiums |
|
|
7,550 |
|
|
|
8,715 |
|
Premiums receivable |
|
|
100,708 |
|
|
|
107,333 |
|
Home office and equipment, net |
|
|
32,417 |
|
|
|
34,603 |
|
Deferred insurance policy acquisition costs |
|
|
12,451 |
|
|
|
11,168 |
|
Investments in joint ventures |
|
|
10,484 |
|
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|
155,430 |
|
Income taxes recoverable |
|
|
414,303 |
|
|
|
865,665 |
|
Other assets |
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|
229,830 |
|
|
|
240,208 |
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|
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|
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Total assets |
|
$ |
8,953,125 |
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$ |
7,716,361 |
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LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY |
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Liabilities: |
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Loss reserves |
|
$ |
4,013,251 |
|
|
$ |
2,642,479 |
|
Premium deficiency reserves |
|
|
583,922 |
|
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|
1,210,841 |
|
Unearned premiums |
|
|
336,084 |
|
|
|
272,233 |
|
Short- and long-term debt (note 2) |
|
|
698,427 |
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|
798,250 |
|
Convertible debentures (note 3) |
|
|
374,746 |
|
|
|
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Other liabilities |
|
|
318,069 |
|
|
|
198,215 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Total liabilities |
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|
6,324,499 |
|
|
|
5,122,018 |
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|
|
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|
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Contingencies (note 5) |
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Shareholders equity (note 11): |
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
Common stock, $1 par value, shares authorized
460,000,000; shares issued,
9/30/08 130,118,744
12/31/07 123,067,426;
shares outstanding, 9/30/08 125,068,464
12/31/07 81,793,185 |
|
|
130,119 |
|
|
|
123,067 |
|
Paid-in capital |
|
|
363,649 |
|
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|
316,649 |
|
Treasury stock (shares at cost, 9/30/08 5,050,280
12/31/07 41,274,241) |
|
|
(276,873 |
) |
|
|
(2,266,364 |
) |
Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income, net of tax |
|
|
(115,292 |
) |
|
|
70,675 |
|
Retained earnings |
|
|
2,527,023 |
|
|
|
4,350,316 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Total shareholders equity |
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|
2,628,626 |
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|
2,594,343 |
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|
|
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Total liabilities and shareholders equity |
|
$ |
8,953,125 |
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$ |
7,716,361 |
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|
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
2
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
Three Months and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008 and 2007
(Unaudited)
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Three Months Ended |
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Nine Months Ended |
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September 30, |
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September 30, |
|
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|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
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|
2008 |
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2007 |
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|
(In thousands of dollars, except per share data) |
|
Revenues: |
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
Premiums written: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Direct |
|
$ |
416,094 |
|
|
$ |
384,281 |
|
|
$ |
1,260,406 |
|
|
$ |
1,084,647 |
|
Assumed |
|
|
3,315 |
|
|
|
947 |
|
|
|
9,317 |
|
|
|
2,388 |
|
Ceded |
|
|
(54,367 |
) |
|
|
(44,984 |
) |
|
|
(164,430 |
) |
|
|
(121,769 |
) |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net premiums written |
|
|
365,042 |
|
|
|
340,244 |
|
|
|
1,105,293 |
|
|
|
965,266 |
|
Increase in unearned premiums, net |
|
|
(22,730 |
) |
|
|
(19,278 |
) |
|
|
(67,201 |
) |
|
|
(38,828 |
) |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Net premiums earned |
|
|
342,312 |
|
|
|
320,966 |
|
|
|
1,038,092 |
|
|
|
926,438 |
|
Investment income, net of expenses |
|
|
78,612 |
|
|
|
64,777 |
|
|
|
228,076 |
|
|
|
189,674 |
|
Realized investment gains, net |
|
|
27,913 |
|
|
|
164,995 |
|
|
|
16,456 |
|
|
|
152,156 |
|
Other revenue |
|
|
12,795 |
|
|
|
4,702 |
|
|
|
27,416 |
|
|
|
25,853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
|
|
461,632 |
|
|
|
555,440 |
|
|
|
1,310,040 |
|
|
|
1,294,121 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Losses and expenses: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Losses incurred, net |
|
|
788,272 |
|
|
|
602,274 |
|
|
|
2,168,063 |
|
|
|
1,019,258 |
|
Change in premium deficiency reserves |
|
|
(204,240 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(626,919 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Underwriting and other expenses, net |
|
|
62,424 |
|
|
|
86,325 |
|
|
|
207,646 |
|
|
|
236,727 |
|
Reinsurance fee (note 4) |
|
|
607 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
970 |
|
|
|
|
|
Interest expense |
|
|
20,119 |
|
|
|
10,926 |
|
|
|
50,924 |
|
|
|
30,479 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total losses and expenses |
|
|
667,182 |
|
|
|
699,525 |
|
|
|
1,800,684 |
|
|
|
1,286,464 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Loss) income before tax and joint ventures |
|
|
(205,550 |
) |
|
|
(144,085 |
) |
|
|
(490,644 |
) |
|
|
7,657 |
|
Credit for income tax |
|
|
(88,924 |
) |
|
|
(62,235 |
) |
|
|
(220,591 |
) |
|
|
(33,619 |
) |
Income (loss) from joint ventures, net of tax |
|
|
3,352 |
|
|
|
(290,619 |
) |
|
|
24,486 |
|
|
|
(244,667 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net loss |
|
$ |
(113,274 |
) |
|
$ |
(372,469 |
) |
|
$ |
(245,567 |
) |
|
$ |
(203,391 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Loss per share (note 6): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic |
|
$ |
(0.91 |
) |
|
$ |
(4.61 |
) |
|
$ |
(2.22 |
) |
|
$ |
(2.50 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diluted |
|
$ |
(0.91 |
) |
|
$ |
(4.61 |
) |
|
$ |
(2.22 |
) |
|
$ |
(2.50 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weighted average common shares
outstanding diluted (shares in
thousands, note 6) |
|
|
123,834 |
|
|
|
80,786 |
|
|
|
110,647 |
|
|
|
81,480 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividends per share |
|
$ |
0.025 |
|
|
$ |
0.25 |
|
|
$ |
0.075 |
|
|
$ |
0.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
3
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY
Year Ended December 31, 2007 and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008 (unaudited)
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Accumulated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Common |
|
|
Paid-in |
|
|
Treasury |
|
|
comprehensive |
|
|
Retained |
|
|
Comprehensive |
|
|
|
stock |
|
|
capital |
|
|
stock |
|
|
income (loss) |
|
|
earnings |
|
|
(loss) income |
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
|
Balance, December 31, 2006 |
|
$ |
123,029 |
|
|
$ |
310,394 |
|
|
$ |
(2,201,966 |
) |
|
$ |
65,789 |
|
|
$ |
5,998,631 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net loss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1,670,018 |
) |
|
$ |
(1,670,018 |
) |
Change in unrealized investment gains and losses, net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(17,767 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(17,767 |
) |
Dividends declared |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(63,819 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Common stock shares issued |
|
|
38 |
|
|
|
2,205 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repurchase of outstanding common shares |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(75,659 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reissuance of treasury stock |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(14,187 |
) |
|
|
11,261 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equity compensation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
18,237 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Defined benefit plan adjustments, net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14,561 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14,561 |
|
Change in the liability for unrecognized tax benefits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
85,522 |
|
|
|
|
|
Unrealized foreign currency translation adjustment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8,456 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8,456 |
|
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(364 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(364 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Comprehensive loss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
(1,665,132 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance, December 31, 2007 |
|
$ |
123,067 |
|
|
$ |
316,649 |
|
|
$ |
(2,266,364 |
) |
|
$ |
70,675 |
|
|
$ |
4,350,316 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net loss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(245,567 |
) |
|
$ |
(245,567 |
) |
Change in unrealized investment gains and losses, net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(178,293 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(178,293 |
) |
Dividends declared |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(8,159 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Common stock shares issued (note 11) |
|
|
7,052 |
|
|
|
68,706 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repurchase of outstanding common shares |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reissuance of treasury stock (note 11) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(41,686 |
) |
|
|
1,989,491 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1,569,567 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Equity compensation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
16,155 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unrealized foreign currency translation adjustment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(7,761 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(7,761 |
) |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,825 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Comprehensive loss |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
(431,534 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance, September 30, 2008 |
|
$ |
130,119 |
|
|
$ |
363,649 |
|
|
$ |
(276,873 |
) |
|
$ |
(115,292 |
) |
|
$ |
2,527,023 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements
4
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008 and 2007
(Unaudited)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nine Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
|
Cash flows from operating activities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net loss |
|
$ |
(245,567 |
) |
|
$ |
(203,391 |
) |
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash
provided by operating activities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amortization of deferred insurance policy
acquisition costs |
|
|
7,736 |
|
|
|
8,556 |
|
Increase in deferred insurance policy
acquisition costs |
|
|
(9,019 |
) |
|
|
(7,562 |
) |
Depreciation and amortization |
|
|
23,058 |
|
|
|
20,801 |
|
Increase in accrued investment income |
|
|
(20,303 |
) |
|
|
(3,410 |
) |
Increase in reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves |
|
|
(289,129 |
) |
|
|
(2,787 |
) |
Decrease in prepaid reinsurance premiums |
|
|
1,165 |
|
|
|
1,064 |
|
Decrease (increase) in premium receivable |
|
|
6,625 |
|
|
|
(14,797 |
) |
Decrease (increase) in real estate acquired |
|
|
95,755 |
|
|
|
(25,522 |
) |
Increase in loss reserves |
|
|
1,370,772 |
|
|
|
435,896 |
|
Decrease in premium deficiency reserve |
|
|
(626,919 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Increase in unearned premiums |
|
|
63,851 |
|
|
|
37,999 |
|
Decrease (increase) in income taxes recoverable |
|
|
451,362 |
|
|
|
(310,010 |
) |
Equity (earnings) losses in joint ventures |
|
|
(33,794 |
) |
|
|
384,158 |
|
Distributions from joint ventures |
|
|
22,195 |
|
|
|
51,512 |
|
Realized gains |
|
|
(16,456 |
) |
|
|
(152,156 |
) |
Other |
|
|
91,637 |
|
|
|
33,734 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net cash provided by operating activities |
|
|
892,969 |
|
|
|
254,085 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flows from investing activities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Purchase of fixed maturities |
|
|
(2,703,798 |
) |
|
|
(1,934,503 |
) |
Purchase of equity securities |
|
|
(65 |
) |
|
|
(67 |
) |
Additional investment in joint ventures |
|
|
(546 |
) |
|
|
(4,098 |
) |
Sale of investment in joint ventures |
|
|
150,316 |
|
|
|
240,800 |
|
Note receivable from joint ventures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(50,000 |
) |
Proceeds from sale of fixed maturities |
|
|
1,287,236 |
|
|
|
1,452,200 |
|
Proceeds from maturity of fixed maturities |
|
|
324,093 |
|
|
|
261,162 |
|
Other |
|
|
120,139 |
|
|
|
20,713 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net cash used in investing activities |
|
|
(822,625 |
) |
|
|
(13,793 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flows from financing activities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividends paid to shareholders |
|
|
(8,159 |
) |
|
|
(62,041 |
) |
(Repayment of) proceeds from note payable |
|
|
(100,000 |
) |
|
|
300,000 |
|
Repayment of long-term debt |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(200,000 |
) |
Net repayment of short-term debt |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(82,110 |
) |
Net proceeds from convertible debentures |
|
|
377,199 |
|
|
|
|
|
Reissuance of treasury stock |
|
|
383,959 |
|
|
|
1,484 |
|
Repurchase of common stock |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(75,659 |
) |
Common stock issued |
|
|
75,758 |
|
|
|
2,098 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities |
|
|
728,757 |
|
|
|
(116,228 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
799,101 |
|
|
|
124,064 |
|
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period |
|
|
288,933 |
|
|
|
293,738 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period |
|
$ |
1,088,034 |
|
|
$ |
417,802 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
5
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
September 30, 2008
(Unaudited)
Note 1 Basis of presentation and summary of certain significant accounting policies
The accompanying unaudited consolidated financial statements of MGIC Investment Corporation and its
wholly-owned subsidiaries have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q as
prescribed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for interim reporting and do not
include all of the other information and disclosures required by accounting principles generally
accepted in the United States of America. These statements should be read in conjunction with the
consolidated financial statements and notes thereto for the year ended December 31, 2007 included
in our Annual Report on Form 10-K.
In the opinion of management such financial statements include all adjustments, consisting
primarily of normal recurring accruals, necessary to fairly present our financial position and
results of operations for the periods indicated. The results of operations for the nine months
ended September 30, 2008 may not be indicative of the results that may be expected for the year
ending December 31, 2008.
New Accounting Standards
In October 2008, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued FASB Staff Position (FSP)
FAS 157-3 Determining the Fair Value of a Financial Asset When the Market for That Asset is Not
Active. The FSP clarifies the application of FASB Statement No. 157 Fair Value Measurements in a
market that is not active and provides an example to illustrate key considerations in determining
the fair value of a financial asset when the market for that financial asset is not active. Our
fair value policies are consistent with the guidance in this FSP.
In June 2008 the FASB issued FSP EITF 03-6-1 Determining Whether Instruments Granted in
Share-Based Payment Transactions Are Participating Securities. This FSP clarifies that share-based
payment awards that entitle holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends before vesting should be
considered participating securities. As participating securities, these instruments should be
included in the calculation of basic earnings per share. The FSP is effective for financial
statements issued for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2008, and interim periods within
those years. We are currently evaluating the provisions of this FSP and do not believe it will have
a material impact on our calculations of basic and diluted earnings per share.
In May 2008, the FASB issued FSP APB 14-1 Accounting for Convertible Debt Instruments That May Be
Settled in Cash upon Conversion (Including Partial Cash Settlement). FSP APB 14-1 requires the
issuer of certain convertible debt instruments that may be settled in cash (or other assets) on
conversion to separately account for the liability (debt) and equity (conversion option) components
of the instrument in a manner that reflects the issuers non-convertible debt borrowing rate. FSP
APB 14-1 is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2008 on a retroactive basis.
We are currently evaluating the impact of the adoption of FSP APB 14-1 on our financial position,
results of operations and cash flows. At
6
this time, we believe the adoption will result in a
net-of-tax increase to our shareholders equity of approximately $63 million on January 1, 2009 and
will result in a net-of-tax increase to interest expense of approximately $11 million for the year
ended December 31, 2008 and $15 million annually thereafter, through April 1, 2013. These increases
result from our Convertible Junior Subordinated Debentures discussed in Note 3.
In March 2008 the FASB issued SFAS No. 161, Disclosures about Derivative Instruments and Hedging
Activities. The new standard is intended to improve financial reporting about derivative
instruments and hedging activities by requiring enhanced disclosures to enable investors to better
understand their effects on an entitys financial position, financial performance, and cash flows.
It is effective for financial statements issued for fiscal years and interim periods beginning
after November 15, 2008. We are currently evaluating the provisions of this statement and the
impact, if any, this statement will have on our disclosures.
In February 2008, the FASB issued FSP FAS 157-2. This statement defers the effective date of FAS
157 for all non-financial assets and non-financial liabilities measured on a non-recurring basis to
fiscal years beginning after November 15, 2008, and interim periods within those fiscal years. We
are currently evaluating the requirements of this statement and the impact, if any, this statement
will have on our financial position and results of operations.
Fair Value Measurements
Effective January 1, 2008, we adopted the fair value measurement provisions of SFAS No. 157, Fair
Value Measurements. SFAS No. 157 provides enhanced guidance for using fair value to measure
assets and liabilities. This statement defines fair value, expands disclosure requirements about
fair value and specifies a hierarchy of valuation techniques based on whether the inputs to those
valuation techniques are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data
obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect a companys market
assumptions. Fair value is used on a recurring basis for assets and liabilities in which fair
value is the primary basis of accounting (i.e., available-for-sale securities). Additionally, fair
value is used on a nonrecurring basis to evaluate assets or liabilities for impairment or for
disclosure purposes.
Fair value is defined as the price that would be received in a sale of an asset or paid to transfer
a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.
Depending on the nature of the asset or liability, we use various valuation techniques and
assumptions when estimating fair value. In accordance with SFAS No. 157, we applied the following
fair value hierarchy in order to measure fair value for assets and liabilities:
Level 1 Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets that we have the
ability to access. Financial assets utilizing Level 1 inputs include certain U.S.
Treasury securities and obligations of the U.S. government.
Level 2 Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for
identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and inputs, other than
quoted prices, that are observable in the marketplace for the financial instrument. The
observable inputs are used in valuation models to calculate the fair value of the
financial instruments. Financial assets utilizing Level 2 inputs include certain
municipal and corporate bonds.
7
Level 3 Valuations derived from valuation techniques in which one or more significant
inputs or value drivers are unobservable. Level 3 inputs reflect our own assumptions
about the assumptions a market participant would use in pricing an asset or liability.
Financial assets utilizing Level 3 inputs include certain state, corporate and
mortgage-backed securities. Non-financial assets which utilize Level 3 inputs include
real estate acquired through claim settlement. Additionally, financial liabilities
utilizing Level 3 inputs consist of derivative financial instruments.
The adoption of SFAS No. 157 resulted in no changes to January 1, 2008 retained earnings. (See note
7.)
Fair Value Option
In conjunction with the adoption of SFAS No. 157, we have adopted SFAS No. 159, The Fair Value
Option for Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities. This statement provides companies with an
option to report selected financial assets and liabilities at fair value on an
instrument-by-instrument basis. After the initial adoption, the election to report a financial
asset or liability at fair value is made at the time of acquisition and it generally may not be
revoked. The objective of this statement is to reduce both complexity in accounting for financial
instruments and the volatility in earnings caused by measuring related assets and liabilities
differently. The adoption of SFAS No. 159 resulted in no changes to January 1, 2008 retained
earnings as we elected not to apply the fair value option to financial instruments not currently
carried at fair value.
Reclassifications
Certain reclassifications have been made in the accompanying financial statements to 2007
amounts to conform to 2008 presentation.
Note 2 Short- and long-term debt
We have a $300 million bank revolving credit facility, expiring in March 2010 that was amended
in June 2008. In the third quarter of 2007, we drew the entire amount available under this
facility. In July 2008, we repaid $100 million borrowed under this facility. The amount that we
repaid remains available for re-borrowing pursuant to the terms of our credit agreement. At
September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007 $200 million and $300 million, respectively, was
outstanding under this facility.
The credit facility, as amended in June 2008, effective July 1, 2008, requires us to maintain
Consolidated Net Worth of no less than $2.00 billion at all times. However, if as of June 30, 2009,
Consolidated Net Worth equals or exceeds $2.75 billion, then the minimum Consolidated Net Worth
under the facility will be increased to $2.25 billion at all times from and after June 30, 2009.
Consolidated Net Worth is generally defined in our credit agreement as the sum of our consolidated
shareholders equity plus the aggregate outstanding principal amount of our 9% Convertible Junior
Subordinated Debentures due 2063, currently $390 million. The credit facility also requires
Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC) to maintain a statutory risk-to-capital ratio of
not more than 22:1 and maintain policyholders position (which includes MGICs statutory surplus
and its contingency reserve) of not less than
8
the amount required by Wisconsin insurance
regulations (MPP). At September 30, 2008, these requirements were met. Our Consolidated Net Worth
at September 30, 2008 was approximately $3.0 billion. At September 30, 2008 MGICs risk-to-capital
was 12.3:1 and MGIC exceeded MPP by more than $1.6 billion. Risk-to-capital is expected to increase
materially and both Consolidated Net Worth and the excess above MPP
are expected to decline materially.
At September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007 we had $200 million, 5.625% Senior Notes due in
September 2011 and $300 million, 5.375% Senior Notes due in November 2015. Covenants in the Senior
Notes include the requirement that there be no liens on the stock of the designated subsidiaries
unless the Senior Notes are equally and ratably secured; that there be no disposition of the stock
of designated subsidiaries unless all of the stock is disposed of for consideration equal to the
fair market value of the stock; and that we and the designated subsidiaries preserve their
corporate existence, rights and franchises unless we or such subsidiary determines that such
preservation is no longer necessary in the conduct of its business and that the loss thereof is not
disadvantageous to the Senior Notes. A designated subsidiary is any of our consolidated
subsidiaries which has shareholders equity of at least 15% of our consolidated shareholders
equity.
The credit facility is filed as an exhibit to our March 31, 2005 Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and
the Indenture governing the Senior Notes is filed as an exhibit to our Current Report on Form 8-K
filed on October 19, 2000. The description of these instruments
above is qualified by these exhibits. At September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007, the fair value of the
amount outstanding under the credit facility and Senior Notes was $529.7 million and $772.0
million, respectively.
Interest payments on all long-term and short-term debt were $29.8 million and $29.9 million for the
nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007, respectively.
If (i) we fail to maintain any of the requirements under the credit facility discussed above, (ii)
we fail to make a payment of principal when due under the credit facility or a payment of interest
within five days after due under the credit facility, (iii) we
fail to make an interest payment when due under either series of our
Senior Notes or (iv) our payment obligations under our
Senior Notes are declared due and payable (including for one of the reasons noted in the following
paragraph) and we are not successful in obtaining an agreement from banks holding a majority of the
debt outstanding under the facility to change (or waive) the applicable requirement, then banks
holding a majority of the debt outstanding under the facility would have the right to declare the
entire amount of the outstanding debt due and payable.
If (i) we fail to meet any of the covenants of the Senior Notes discussed above, (ii) we fail to
make a payment of principal of the Senior Notes when due or a payment of interest on the Senior
Notes within thirty days after due or (iii) the debt under our bank facility is declared due and
payable (including for one of the reasons noted in the previous paragraph) and we are not
successful in obtaining an agreement from holders of a majority of the applicable series of Senior
Notes to change (or waive) the applicable requirement or payment default, then the holders of 25%
or more of either series of our Senior Notes each would have the right to accelerate the maturity
of that debt. In addition, the Trustee of these two issues of Senior Notes, which is also a lender
under our bank credit facility, could, independent of any action by holders of Senior Notes,
accelerate the maturity of the Senior Notes.
Note 3 Convertible debentures and related derivatives
9
In March 2008 we completed the sale of $365 million principal amount of 9% Convertible Junior
Subordinated Debentures due in 2063. In April 2008, the initial purchasers exercised an option to
purchase an additional $25 million aggregate principal amount of these debentures. The debentures
were sold in private placements to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the
Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Interest on the debentures will be payable semi-annually in
arrears on April 1 and October 1 of each year, beginning on October 1, 2008. As long as no event of
default with respect to the debentures has occurred and is continuing, we may defer interest, under
an optional deferral provision, for one or more consecutive interest periods up to ten years
without giving rise to an event of default. Deferred interest will accrue additional interest at
the rate then applicable to the debentures. Violations of the covenants under the Indenture
governing the debentures, including covenants to provide certain documents to the trustee, are not
events of default under the Indenture and would not allow the acceleration of amounts that we owe
under the debentures. Similarly, events of default under, or acceleration of, any of our other
obligations, including those described in Note 2 Short- and long-term debt would not allow the
acceleration of amounts that we owe under the debentures. However, violations of the events of
default under the Indenture, including a failure to pay principal when due under the
debentures and certain events of bankruptcy, insolvency or receivership involving our holding
company would allow acceleration of amounts that we owe under the debentures.
The debentures rank junior to all of our existing and future senior indebtedness. The net proceeds
of the debentures were approximately $377 million. A portion of the net proceeds of the debentures
and a concurrent offering of common stock (see Note 11) was used to increase the capital of MGIC,
our principal insurance subsidiary, in order to enable us to expand the volume of our new insurance
written, and a portion will also be used for our general corporate purposes. Debt issuance costs
are being amortized over the expected life of five years to interest expense.
We may redeem the debentures prior to April 6, 2013, in whole but not in part, only in the event of
a specified tax or rating agency event, as defined in the indenture. In any such event, the
redemption price will be equal to the greater of (1) 100% of the principal amount of the debentures
being redeemed and (2) the applicable make-whole amount, as defined in the indenture, in each case
plus any accrued but unpaid interest. On or after April 6, 2013, we may redeem the debentures in
whole or in part from time to time, at our option, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the
principal amount of the debentures being redeemed plus any accrued and unpaid interest if the
closing sale price of our common stock exceeds 130% of the then prevailing conversion price of the
debentures for at least 20 of the 30 trading days preceding notice of the redemption. We will not
be able to redeem the debentures, other than in the event of a specified tax event or rating agency
event, during an optional deferral period.
The debentures are currently convertible, at the holders option, at an initial conversion rate,
which is subject to adjustment, of 74.0741 common shares per $1,000 principal amount of debentures
at any time prior to the maturity date. This represents an initial conversion price of
approximately $13.50 per share. The initial conversion price represents a 20% conversion premium
based on the $11.25 per share price to the public in our concurrent common stock offering. (See
Note 11.)
In lieu of issuing shares of common stock upon conversion of the debentures occurring after April
6, 2013, we may, at our option, make a cash payment to converting holders equal to the value of all
or some of the shares of our common stock otherwise issuable upon conversion.
10
Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE. One of the NYSEs rules limits
the number of shares of our common stock that the convertible debentures may be converted into to
less than 20% of the number of shares outstanding immediately before the issuance of the
convertible debentures unless shareholders approve the issuance of the shares that would exceed the
limit. We closed a sale of our common stock immediately prior to the sale of the convertible
debentures, which resulted in approximately 124.9 million shares of our common stock outstanding
prior to the debentures being issued. At the initial conversion rate the outstanding debentures are
convertible into approximately 23.1% of our common stock outstanding, 3.9 million shares above the
NYSE limit. At a special shareholders meeting held in June 2008, we received shareholder approval
on the issuance of shares of our common stock sufficient to convert all of the convertible
debentures.
At issuance approximately $52.8 million in face value of the convertible debentures could not be
settled in our common shares without prior shareholder approval and thus required bifurcation of
the embedded derivative related to those convertible debentures. The derivative value of $16.9
million was determined using the Black-Scholes model, and is treated as a discount on issuance of
the convertible debentures and amortized over the expected life of
five years to interest expense. Prior to shareholder approval, changes in the fair value of the
derivative were reflected in our results of operations. Since the changes in fair value
corresponded to changes in our stock price, a decrease in our stock price resulted in a decrease in
the derivative liability. On the date of shareholder approval, June 27, 2008, the value of the
derivative had decreased to $5.9 million. On this date the amount was re-classified from a
liability to shareholders equity on the consolidated balance sheet, and subsequent changes in the
fair value of the derivative will not be reflected on our financial statements. The change in fair
value of the derivative from issuance to shareholder approval of approximately $11.0 million is
included in other revenue on our statement of operations for the nine months ended September 30,
2008.
The Indenture governing the Convertible Debentures is filed as an exhibit to our March 31, 2008
Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. The description of this Indenture is
qualified by this exhibit. The fair value of the convertible debentures was approximately
$291.6 million at September 30, 2008.
Note 4 Reinsurance
In June 2008 we entered into a reinsurance agreement with an affiliate of HCC Insurance Holdings,
Inc. (HCC). The reinsurance agreement is effective on the risk associated with up to $50 billion
of qualifying new insurance written each calendar year. The term of the reinsurance agreement
begins April 1, 2008 and ends on December 31, 2010, subject to two one-year extensions that may be
exercised by HCC.
The reinsurance agreement is expected to provide claims-paying resources in catastrophic loss
environments for new insurance written beginning April 1, 2008.
The agreement is accounted for under deposit accounting rather than reinsurance accounting, because
under the guidance of SFAS 113 Accounting for Reinsurance Contracts, we concluded that the
reinsurance agreement does not result in the reasonable possibility that the reinsurer will suffer
a significant loss. The premium ceded to the reinsurer and the brokerage commission paid to an
affiliate of the reinsurer, net of a profit commission to us, is recorded as reinsurance fee
expense on our statement of operations. In non-catastrophic loss
11
environments, we expect the net
expense will be approximately 5% of net premiums earned on business covered by the agreement. The
reinsurance fee for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 was approximately $0.6
million and $1.0 million, respectively.
Note 5 Litigation and contingencies
We are involved in litigation in the ordinary course of business that is not further described in
this footnote. In our opinion, the ultimate resolution of this pending litigation will not have a
material adverse effect on our financial position or results of operations. However, we are unable
to predict the outcome of these cases or estimate our associated expenses or possible losses.
Consumers are bringing a growing number of lawsuits against home mortgage lenders and settlement
service providers. In recent years, seven mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have been involved in
litigation alleging violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real
Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is commonly known as RESPA, and the notice provisions of
the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which is commonly known as FCRA. MGICs settlement of class action
litigation against it under RESPA became final in October 2003. MGIC settled the named plaintiffs
claims in litigation against it under FCRA in late December 2004 following denial of class
certification in June 2004. Since December 2006, class action litigation was separately brought
against a number of large lenders alleging that their captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements
violated RESPA. While we are not a defendant in any of these cases, there can be no assurance that
we will not be subject to future litigation under RESPA or FCRA or that the outcome of any such
litigation would not have a material adverse effect on us.
In June 2005, in response to a letter from the New York Insurance Department, we provided
information regarding captive mortgage reinsurance arrangements and other types of arrangements in
which lenders receive compensation. In February 2006, the New York Insurance Department requested
MGIC to review its premium rates in New York and to file adjusted rates based on recent years
experience or to explain why such experience would not alter rates. In March 2006, MGIC advised the
New York Insurance Department that it believes its premium rates are reasonable and that, given the
nature of mortgage insurance risk, premium rates should not be determined only by the experience of
recent years. In February 2006, in response to an administrative subpoena from the Minnesota
Department of Commerce, which regulates insurance, we provided the Department with information
about captive mortgage reinsurance and certain other matters. We subsequently provided additional
information to the Minnesota Department of Commerce, and beginning in March 2008 that Department
has sought additional information as well as answers to questions regarding captive mortgage
reinsurance on several occasions. In June 2008, we received a subpoena from the Department of
Housing and Urban Development, commonly referred to as HUD, seeking information about captive
mortgage reinsurance similar to that requested by the Minnesota Department of Commerce, but not
limited in scope to the state of Minnesota. Other insurance departments or other officials,
including attorneys general, may also seek information about or investigate captive mortgage
reinsurance.
The anti-referral fee provisions of RESPA provide that the Department of Housing and Urban
Development as well as the insurance commissioner or attorney general of any state may bring an
action to enjoin violations of these provisions of RESPA. The insurance law provisions of many
states prohibit paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to
enforce this prohibition. While we believe our captive reinsurance
12
arrangements are in conformity
with applicable laws and regulations, it is not possible to predict the outcome of any such reviews
or investigations nor is it possible to predict their effect on us or the mortgage insurance
industry.
In October 2007, the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission requested
that we voluntarily furnish documents and information primarily relating to C-BASS, the
now-terminated merger with Radian and the subprime mortgage assets in the Companys various lines
of business. We are in the process of providing responsive documents and information to the
Securities and Exchange Commission. As part of its initial information request, the SEC staff
informed us that this investigation should not be construed as an indication by the SEC or its
staff that any violation of the securities laws has occurred, or as a reflection upon any person,
entity or security.
In the second, third and fourth quarters of 2008, complaints in five separate purported stockholder
class action lawsuits were filed against us, several of our officers and an officer of C-BASS. The
allegations in the complaints are generally that through these individuals we violated the federal
securities laws by failing to disclose or misrepresenting C-BASSs liquidity, the impairment of our
investment in C-BASS, the inadequacy of our loss reserves and that we were not adequately
capitalized. The collective time period covered by these lawsuits begins on October 12, 2006 and
ends on February 12, 2008. The complaints seek damages based on purchases of our stock during this
time period at prices that were allegedly inflated as a result of the purported misstatements and
omissions. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers are entitled to
indemnification from us for claims against them of the type alleged in the complaints. We believe,
among other things, that the allegations in the complaints are not sufficient to prevent their
dismissal and intend to defend against them vigorously. However, we are unable to predict the
outcome of these cases or estimate our associated expenses or possible losses.
Two law firms have issued press releases to the effect that they are investigating whether the
fiduciaries of our 401(k) plan breached their fiduciary duties regarding the plans investment in
or holding of our common stock. With limited exceptions, our bylaws provide that the plan
fiduciaries are entitled to indemnification from us for claims against them. We intend to defend
vigorously any proceedings that may result from these investigations.
On June 1, 2007, as a result of an examination by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for taxable
years 2000 through 2004, we received a Revenue Agent Report (RAR). The adjustments reported on
the RAR substantially increase taxable income for those tax years and resulted in the issuance of
an assessment for unpaid taxes totaling $189.5 million in taxes and accuracy-related penalties,
plus applicable interest. We have agreed with the IRS on certain issues and paid $10.5 million in
additional taxes and interest. The remaining open issue relates to our treatment of the flow
through income and loss from an investment in a portfolio of residual interests of Real Estate
Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICS). The IRS has indicated that it does not believe that, for
various reasons, we have established sufficient tax basis in the REMIC residual interests to deduct
the losses from taxable income. We disagree with this conclusion and believe that the flow through
income and loss from these investments was properly reported on our federal income tax returns in
accordance with applicable tax laws and regulations in effect during the periods involved and have
appealed these adjustments. The appeals process may take some time and a final resolution may not
be reached until a date many months or years into the future. On July 2, 2007, we made a payment of
$65.2 million to the United States Department of the Treasury to eliminate
13
the further accrual of
interest. Although the resolution of this issue is uncertain, we believe that sufficient
provisions for income taxes have been made for potential liabilities that may result. If the
resolution of this matter differs materially from our estimates, it could have a material impact on
our effective tax rate, results of operations and cash flows.
Under our contract underwriting agreements, we may be required to provide certain remedies to our
customers if certain standards relating to the quality of our underwriting work are not met. The
cost of remedies provided by us to customers for failing to meet these standards has not been
material to our financial position or results of operations for the nine months ended September 30,
2008 and 2007.
Note 6 Earnings per share
Our basic and diluted earnings per share (EPS) have been calculated in accordance with SFAS No.
128, Earnings Per Share. Basic EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares
outstanding. Typically, diluted EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares
outstanding plus common stock equivalents which include stock awards, stock options and the
dilutive effect of our convertible debentures. In accordance with SFAS 128, if we report a net loss
from continuing operations then our diluted EPS is computed in the same manner as the basic EPS.
For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007, our net loss is the same for both
basic and diluted EPS. The following is a reconciliation of the weighted average number of shares;
however for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 common stock equivalents of
29.4 million and 21.0 million, 0.2 million and 0.4 million, respectively, were not included because
they were anti-dilutive.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
Nine Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
(in thousands) |
|
Weighted-average shares Basic |
|
|
123,834 |
|
|
|
80,786 |
|
|
|
110,647 |
|
|
|
81,480 |
|
Common stock equivalents |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weighted-average shares Diluted |
|
|
123,834 |
|
|
|
80,786 |
|
|
|
110,647 |
|
|
|
81,480 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note 7 Fair value measurements
As discussed in Note 1, we adopted SFAS No. 157 and SFAS No. 159 effective January 1, 2008. Both
standards address aspects of the expanding application of fair-value accounting. SFAS No. 157
defines fair value, establishes a consistent framework for measuring fair value and expands
disclosure requirements regarding fair-value measurements. SFAS No. 159 provides companies with an
option to report selected financial assets and liabilities at fair value with changes in fair value
reported in earnings. The option to account for selected financial assets and liabilities at fair
value is made on an instrument-by-instrument basis at the time of acquisition. For the three and
nine month periods ended September 30, 2008, we did not elect the fair value option for any
financial instruments acquired for which the primary basis of accounting is not fair value.
14
In accordance with SFAS No. 157, we applied the following fair value hierarchy in order to measure
fair value for assets and liabilities:
Level 1 Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets that we have the
ability to access. Financial assets utilizing Level 1 inputs include certain U.S.
Treasury securities and obligations of the U.S. government.
Level 2 Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for
identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and inputs, other than
quoted prices, that are observable in the marketplace for the financial instrument. The
observable inputs are used in valuation models to calculate the fair value of the
financial instruments. Financial assets utilizing Level 2 inputs include certain
municipal and corporate bonds.
Level 3 Valuations derived from valuation techniques in which one or more significant
inputs or value drivers are unobservable. Level 3 inputs reflect our own assumptions
about the assumptions a market participant would use in pricing an asset or liability.
Financial assets utilizing Level 3 inputs include certain state, corporate and
mortgage-backed securities. Non-financial assets which utilize Level 3 inputs include
real estate acquired through claim settlement. Additionally, financial liabilities
utilizing Level 3 inputs consist of derivative financial instruments.
To determine the fair value of securities available-for-sale in Level 1 and Level 2 of the fair
value hierarchy a variety of inputs are utilized including benchmark yields, reported trades,
broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers and
reference data including market research publications. Inputs may be weighted differently for any
security, and not all inputs are used for each security evaluation. Market indicators, industry and
economic events are also considered. This information is evaluated using a multidimensional pricing
model. Quality controls are performed throughout this process which includes reviewing tolerance
reports, trading information and data changes, and directional moves compared to market moves. This
model combines all inputs to arrive at a value assigned to each security.
The values generated by this model are also reviewed for reasonableness and, in some cases, further
analyzed for accuracy, which includes the review of other publicly available information.
Securities whose fair value is primarily based on the use of our multidimensional pricing model are
classified in Level 2 and include certain municipal and corporate bonds.
Assets and liabilities classified as Level 3 are as follows:
|
|
|
Securities available-for-sale classified in Level 3 are not readily marketable and are
valued using internally developed models based on the present value of expected cash flows
utilizing data provided by the trustees. |
|
|
|
|
Real estate acquired through claim settlement is fair valued at the lower of our
acquisition cost or a percentage of appraised value. The percentage applied to appraised
value is based upon our historical sales experience adjusted for
current trends. |
15
|
|
|
As discussed in Note 3 the derivative related to the outstanding debentures was valued
using the Black-Scholes model. Remaining derivatives are valued internally, based on the
present value of expected cash flows utilizing data provided by the trustees. |
Fair value measurements for items measured at fair value included the following as of September 30,
2008:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quoted Prices in |
|
|
|
|
|
Significant |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Active Markets for |
|
Significant Other |
|
Unobservable |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Identical Assets |
|
Observable Inputs |
|
Inputs |
|
|
Total |
|
(Level 1) |
|
(Level 2) |
|
(Level 3) |
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
Assets |
|
|
Securities
available-for-sale |
|
$ |
6,639,843 |
|
|
$ |
275,806 |
|
|
$ |
6,335,273 |
|
|
$ |
28,764 |
|
Real estate acquired
(1) |
|
|
49,443 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
49,443 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other liabilities
(derivatives) |
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
(1) |
|
Real estate acquired through claim settlement, which is held for sale, is reported in Other Assets on the consolidated balance sheet. |
For assets and liabilities measured at fair value using significant unobservable inputs (Level 3),
a reconciliation of the beginning and ending balances for the three and nine months ended September
30, 2008 is as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Securities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Available- |
|
Real Estate |
|
Other |
|
|
for-Sale |
|
Acquired |
|
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
Balance at June 30, 2008 |
|
$ |
37,348 |
|
|
$ |
64,619 |
|
|
$ |
(22,157 |
) |
Total realized/unrealized gains (losses): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included in earnings and reported as realized investment
gains (losses), net |
|
|
(8,157 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included in earnings and reported as other revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included in earnings and reported as losses incurred, net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(837 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Included in other comprehensive income |
|
|
(750 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Purchases, issuances and settlements |
|
|
323 |
|
|
|
(14,339 |
) |
|
|
22,157 |
|
Transfers in/and or out of Level 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance at September 30, 2008 |
|
$ |
28,764 |
|
|
$ |
49,443 |
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
Amount of total gains (losses) included in earnings for the
three months ended September 30, 2008 attributable to the
change in unrealized gains (losses) on assets (liabilities)
still held at September 30, 2008 |
|
$ |
(6,278 |
) |
|
$ |
(4,230 |
) |
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Securities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Available- |
|
Real Estate |
|
Other |
|
|
for-Sale |
|
Acquired |
|
Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
Balance at January 1, 2008 |
|
$ |
37,195 |
|
|
$ |
145,198 |
|
|
$ |
(12,132 |
) |
Total realized/unrealized gains (losses): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included in earnings and reported as realized investment
gains (losses), net |
|
|
(14,211 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included in earnings and reported as other revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(6,823 |
) |
Included in earnings and reported as losses incurred, net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(18,595 |
) |
|
|
|
|
Included in other comprehensive income |
|
|
2,793 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Purchases, issuances and settlements |
|
|
2,987 |
|
|
|
(77,160 |
) |
|
|
18,955 |
|
Transfers in/and or out of Level 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance at September 30, 2008 |
|
$ |
28,764 |
|
|
$ |
49,443 |
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
Amount of total gains (losses) included in earnings for the
nine months ended September 30, 2008 attributable to the
change in unrealized gains (losses) on assets (liabilities)
still held at September 30, 2008 |
|
$ |
(12,156 |
) |
|
$ |
(12,388 |
) |
|
$ |
|
|
|
|
|
For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 we recognized other than temporary
impairments on our investment portfolio of approximately $31.7 million and $40.2 million,
respectively. There were no other than temporary impairments recognized in 2007.
Note 8 Comprehensive income
Our total comprehensive income, as calculated per SFAS No. 130, Reporting Comprehensive Income, was
as follows:
17
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
Nine Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
|
Net loss |
|
$ |
(113,274 |
) |
|
$ |
(372,469 |
) |
|
$ |
(245,567 |
) |
|
$ |
(203,391 |
) |
Other comprehensive (loss) income |
|
|
(126,219 |
) |
|
|
33,216 |
|
|
|
(185,967 |
) |
|
|
(21,498 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total comprehensive loss |
|
$ |
(239,493 |
) |
|
$ |
(339,253 |
) |
|
$ |
(431,534 |
) |
|
$ |
(224,889 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other comprehensive (loss) income
(net of tax): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in unrealized gains and losses
on investments |
|
$ |
(110,989 |
) |
|
$ |
30,325 |
|
|
|
(178,293 |
) |
|
|
(29,253 |
) |
Other |
|
|
(15,230 |
) |
|
|
2,891 |
|
|
|
(7,674 |
) |
|
|
7,755 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other comprehensive (loss) income |
|
$ |
(126,219 |
) |
|
$ |
33,216 |
|
|
$ |
(185,967 |
) |
|
$ |
(21,498 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
At September 30, 2008, accumulated other comprehensive loss of ($115.3) million included ($112.4)
million of net unrealized losses on investments, $0.3 million relating to a foreign currency
translation adjustment, and ($3.2) million relating to defined benefit plans, all net of tax. At
December 31, 2007, accumulated other comprehensive income of $70.7 million included $65.9 million
of net unrealized gains on investments, ($3.2) million relating to defined benefit plans, $8.5
million relating to foreign currency translation adjustment and ($0.5) million relating to the
accumulated other comprehensive loss of our joint venture investments.
Note 9 Benefit Plans
The following table provides the components of net periodic benefit cost for the pension,
supplemental executive retirement and other postretirement benefit plans:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
Pension and Supplemental |
|
|
Other Postretirement |
|
|
|
Executive Retirement Plans |
|
|
Benefits |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
|
Service cost |
|
$ |
2,303 |
|
|
$ |
2,527 |
|
|
$ |
1,055 |
|
|
$ |
753 |
|
Interest cost |
|
|
3,643 |
|
|
|
3,137 |
|
|
|
1,304 |
|
|
|
683 |
|
Expected return on plan assets |
|
|
(4,869 |
) |
|
|
(4,479 |
) |
|
|
(942 |
) |
|
|
(844 |
) |
Recognized net actuarial loss |
|
|
141 |
|
|
|
288 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(52 |
) |
Amortization of transition obligation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70 |
|
|
|
70 |
|
Amortization of prior service cost |
|
|
170 |
|
|
|
141 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net periodic benefit cost |
|
$ |
1,388 |
|
|
$ |
1,614 |
|
|
$ |
1,487 |
|
|
$ |
610 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nine Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
Pension and Supplemental |
|
|
Other Postretirement |
|
|
|
Executive Retirement Plans |
|
|
Benefits |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
(In thousands of dollars) |
|
Service cost |
|
$ |
6,375 |
|
|
$ |
7,535 |
|
|
$ |
2,831 |
|
|
$ |
2,533 |
|
Interest cost |
|
|
10,307 |
|
|
|
9,169 |
|
|
|
3,662 |
|
|
|
2,907 |
|
Expected return on plan assets |
|
|
(14,479 |
) |
|
|
(13,219 |
) |
|
|
(2,824 |
) |
|
|
(2,452 |
) |
Recognized net actuarial loss |
|
|
369 |
|
|
|
414 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amortization of transition obligation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
212 |
|
|
|
212 |
|
Amortization of prior service cost |
|
|
512 |
|
|
|
423 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net periodic benefit cost |
|
$ |
3,084 |
|
|
$ |
4,322 |
|
|
$ |
3,881 |
|
|
$ |
3,200 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In October 2008 we amended our postretirement benefit plan under which we provide both medical and
dental benefits for our retired employees and their spouses. Under this plan retirees pay a premium
for these benefits. The amendment, which is effective January 1, 2009, includes the termination of
benefits provided to retirees once they reach the age of 65. This amendment will significantly
reduce our accumulated postretirement benefit obligation. The amendment will also reduce our net
periodic benefit cost in future periods beginning with calendar year 2009. (The 2008 net periodic
benefits costs in the tables above are not affected by the amendment.) We previously disclosed in
our financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2007 that we expected to contribute
approximately $9.3 million and $3.0 million, respectively, to our pension and postretirement plans
in 2008. Since the amendment to the postretirement plan will reduce our accumulated benefit
obligation we will not be funding that plan in 2008. In October 2008 we contributed approximately
$15 million to the pension plan.
Note 10 Joint Ventures
In August 2008 we sold our entire interest in Sherman Financial Group LLC (Sherman) to Sherman.
Our interest sold represented approximately 24.25% of Shermans equity. The sale price paid was
$124.5 million in cash and by delivery of Shermans unsecured promissory note in the principal
amount of $85 million (the Note). The scheduled maturity of the Note is February 13, 2011 and it
bears interest, payable monthly, at the annual rate equal to three-month LIBOR plus 500 basis
points. The Note is issued under a Credit Agreement, dated August 13, 2008, between Sherman and
MGIC.
At the
time of sale the note had a fair value of $69.5 million (18.25%
discount to par). The fair
value was determined by comparing the terms of the Note to the discounts and yields on comparable
bonds. The fair value was also discounted for illiquidity and lack of ratings. The discount will be
amortized to interest income over the life of the Note. The gain recognized on the sale was $62.8
million, and is included in realized investment gains on the statement of operations for the three
and nine months ended September 30, 2008.
19
As a result of the sale we are entitled to an additional cash payment if by approximately early
March 2009 Sherman or certain of its management affiliates enter into a definitive agreement
covering a transaction involving the sale or purchase of interests in Sherman in which the fair
value of the consideration reflects a value of Sherman over $1 billion plus an additional amount.
The additional amount is $33 million if a definitive agreement had been entered into by early
September 2008 and increases by $11 million for each monthly period that elapses after early
September 2008 until a monthly period beginning in early February 2009, when the additional amount
is $100 million. A qualifying purchase or sale transaction must close for us to be entitled to an
additional payment.
In connection with the sale we waived, effective at the time at which the Note is paid in full, our
right to any contingent consideration for the sale of the interests in Sherman that we sold in
September 2007 to an entity owned by the management of Sherman. Under that sale, we are entitled
to an additional cash payment if the purchasers after-tax rate of return on the interests
purchased exceeds a threshold that equates to an annual return of 16%.
For additional information regarding the sale of our interest please refer to our Current Report on
Form 8-K filed on August 14, 2008.
Note 11 Shareholders equity
In March 2008 we completed the public offering and sale of 42,933,333 shares of our common stock at
a price of $11.25 per share. We received net proceeds of approximately $460 million, after
deducting underwriting discount and estimated offering expenses. The number of shares and proceeds
reflect the exercise in full of the underwriters option to purchase additional shares of common
stock. Of the 42.9 million shares of common stock sold, 7.1 million were newly issued shares and
35.8 million were common shares issued out of treasury. The cost of the treasury shares issued
exceeded the proceeds from the sale by approximately $1.6 billion, which resulted in a deficiency.
The deficiency was charged to paid-in capital related to previous treasury share transactions, and
the remainder was charged to retained earnings.
A portion of the net proceeds of the offering along with the net proceeds of the debentures (see
Note 3) was used to increase the capital of MGIC, our principal insurance subsidiary, in order to
enable us to expand the volume of our new insurance written and a portion will also be used for our
general corporate purposes.
In June 2008 our shareholders approved an amendment to our Articles of Incorporation that increased
the number of authorized shares of common stock from 300 million to 460 million.
20
|
|
|
ITEM 2. |
|
MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS |
Overview
Through our subsidiary MGIC, we are the leading provider of private mortgage insurance in the
United States to the home mortgage lending industry. Our principal products are primary mortgage
insurance and pool mortgage insurance. Primary mortgage insurance may be written through the flow
market channel, in which loans are insured in individual, loan-by-loan transactions. Primary
mortgage insurance may also be written through the bulk market channel, in which portfolios of
loans are individually insured in single, bulk transactions.
As used below, we and our refer to MGIC Investment Corporations consolidated operations.
The discussion below should be read in conjunction with Managements Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
December 31, 2007. We refer to this Discussion as the 10-K MD&A. In the discussion below, we
classify, in accordance with industry practice, as full documentation loans approved by GSE and
other automated underwriting systems under doc waiver programs that do not require verification
of borrower income. For additional information about such loans, see footnote (3) to the
delinquency table under Results of Consolidated Operations-Losses-Losses Incurred. The discussion
of our business in this document generally does not apply to our international operations which
began in 2007, are conducted only in Australia and are immaterial. The results of our operations in
Australia are included in the consolidated results disclosed. For additional information about our
Australian operations, see We may not be able to realize benefits from our international
initiative in Exhibit 99 to this Report.
Forward Looking Statements
As discussed under Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors below, actual results may
differ materially from the results contemplated by forward looking statements. We are not
undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements or other statements we may make
in the following discussion or elsewhere in this document even though these statements may be
affected by events or circumstances occurring after the forward looking statements or other
statements were made. Therefore no reader of this document should rely on these statements being
accurate as of any time other than the time at which this document was filed with the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
Outlook
We believe the mortgage insurance industry will experience material losses on the 2006 and
2007 books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on the direction of home
prices in California, Florida and other distressed markets, which in turn will be influenced by
general economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or
general economic conditions with confidence, we cannot predict with confidence what our ultimate
losses will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these books
will continue to generate material incurred and paid losses for a number of years. Our view of
potential losses on these books has trended
upward since the first quarter of 2008, including since the time at which we finalized our
Form 10-Q for the second quarter of this year.
21
The Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of Wisconsin is MGICs principal insurance
regulator. To assess a mortgage guaranty insurers capital adequacy, Wisconsins insurance
regulations require that a mortgage guaranty insurance company maintain policyholders position of
not less than a minimum computed under a formula. Policyholders position is the insurers net
worth, contingency reserve and a portion of the reserves for unearned premiums, with credit given
for authorized reinsurance. The minimum required by the formula (MPP) depends on the insurance in
force and whether the loans insured are primary insurance or pool insurance and further depends on
the LTV ratio of the individual loans and their coverage percentage (and in the case of pool
insurance, the amount of any deductible). If a mortgage guaranty insurer does not meet MPP it
cannot write new business until its policyholders position meets the minimum.
Some states that regulate us have provisions that limit the risk-to-capital ratio (see
Liquidity and Capital ResourcesRisk to Capital) of a mortgage guaranty insurance company to
25:1. If an insurance companys risk-to-capital ratio exceeds the limit applicable in a state, it
may be prohibited from writing new business in that state until its risk-to-capital ratio falls
below the limit.
At September 30, 2008, MGIC exceeded MPP by more than $1.6 billion, and we exceeded MPP by
$1.8 billion on a combined basis. At September 30, 2008
MGICs risk-to-capital was 12.3:1 and our risk-to-capital was
13.9:1 on a combined basis. (The combined figures give effect to reinsurance with subsidiaries of
our holding company.)
Because the factors that will affect our future losses are subject to significant uncertainty,
we cannot predict with confidence the level of our future losses. However, if recent loss trends
continue MGICs policyholders position would decline and its risk-to-capital would increase beyond
the levels necessary to meet regulatory requirements. Depending on the level of future losses, this
could occur before the end of 2009.
Our estimated loss reserves reflect loss mitigation from rescissions using only the rate at
which we have rescinded claims during recent periods, as discussed under Results of Consolidated
OperationsLossesLosses Incurred". In light of the number of claims investigations we are
pursuing, we expect our current rescission rate to increase materially, although if the insured
disputes our right to rescind a claim, whether the requirements to rescind are met ultimately would
be determined by arbitration or judicial proceedings. Our estimated loss reserves also do not take
account of the effect of potential benefits that might be realized from loan modification programs.
Our MPP and risk-to-capital have historically been computed based on risk in force that is not
reduced for loss reserves established for known delinquencies even though our policyholders
position is reduced for those delinquencies. See Liquidity and Capital ResourcesRisk to
Capital. To the extent our risk in force could be reduced for such loss reserves and the
reduction were consistent with regulatory requirements, we may be able to defer the time at which
we would not meet regulatory levels of MPP or risk-to-capital. While these items, if they in fact
occur, would reduce the amount by which MPP and risk-to-capital would not meet regulatory
requirements, we have not quantified their effect and cannot determine the amount of any such
reduction.
We are considering options to obtain additional capital, which could occur through the sale of
equity or debt securities and/or reinsurance. We cannot predict whether we will be
successful in raising additional capital from any source but any sale of additional securities
could dilute substantially the interest of existing shareholders.
22
An inability to write new business does not mean that we do not have sufficient resources to
pay claims. We believe we have more than adequate resources to pay claims on our insurance in
force, even in scenarios in which losses materially exceed those that would result in not meeting
MPP and risk-to-capital requirements. Our claims paying resources principally consist of our
investment portfolio, captive reinsurance trust funds and future premiums on our insurance in
force, net of premiums ceded to captive and other reinsurers.
At October 31, 2008, we had approximately $391 million in short-term investments at our
holding company. Our holding companys obligations include $1.090 billion in indebtedness. See
Notes 2 and 3 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained elsewhere in this
Form 10-Q for additional information about this indebtedness. See Liquidity and Capital Resources
Holding Company Capital Resources for information about restrictions on MGICs payment of
dividends to our holding company. Historically, these dividends have been the principal source of
our holding companys cash inflow.
Housing Legislation
In late July the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 was enacted. Included in this
legislation is the HOPE for Homeowners Act of 2008 which creates a new, temporary, voluntary
program within FHA to back FHA-insured mortgages to distressed borrowers. The new mortgages
offered by FHA-approved lenders will refinance the loans of distressed owner-occupants at risk of
losing their homes to foreclosure at significant discounts to the original value of the home. Also
included in the Act is the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008 which establishes
a new, independent, world class regulator for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan
Banks. This regulator has been given broad authority to ensure the safety and soundness of these
entities, including the ability to establish new capital standards, restrict asset growth,
establish standards for portfolio risk management, and review and approve new product offerings.
There can be no assurance that any changes resulting from the implementation of this new regulatory
regime will not alter our relationship or ability to conduct business with the GSEs in a materially
adverse manner.
In September the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) was enacted. Included
in this legislation is the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) which, among other provisions,
allows mortgage assets to be purchased by the federal government from financial institutions. To
the extent assets are acquired or controlled by a government agency such agency must implement a
plan that seeks to maximize assistance to homeowners to minimize foreclosures. Some lenders have
agreed to modify certain loans that are currently delinquent or are at risk to become delinquent.
There can be no assurance that current, or future, legislation or agreements to modify loans,
should they occur, will materially reduce the level of delinquencies and claims we are currently
experiencing or could experience in the future.
Factors Affecting Our Results
Our results of operations are affected by:
|
|
|
Premiums written and earned |
|
|
|
|
Premiums written and earned in a year are influenced by: |
23
|
|
|
New insurance written, which increases the size of the in force book of insurance,
is the aggregate principal amount of the mortgages that are insured during a period.
Many factors affect new insurance written, including the volume of low down payment
home mortgage originations and competition to provide credit enhancement on those
mortgages, including competition from other mortgage insurers and alternatives to
mortgage insurance. |
|
|
|
|
Cancellations, which reduce the size of the in force book of insurance that
generates premiums. Cancellations due to refinancings are affected by the level of
current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates throughout the in
force book, as well as by current home values compared to values when the loans in the
in force book became insured. |
|
|
|
|
Premium rates, which are affected by the risk characteristics of the loans insured
and the percentage of coverage on the loans. |
|
|
|
|
Premiums ceded to reinsurance subsidiaries of certain mortgage lenders (captives)
and risk sharing arrangements with the GSEs. |
Premiums are generated by the insurance that is in force during all or a portion of the
period. Hence, changes in the average insurance in force in the current period compared to an
earlier period is a factor that will increase (when the average in force is higher) or reduce (when
it is lower) premiums written and earned in the current period, although this effect may be
enhanced (or mitigated) by differences in the average premium rate between the two periods as well
as by premiums that are ceded to captives. Also, new insurance written and cancellations during a
period will generally have a greater effect on premiums written and earned in subsequent periods
than in the period in which these events occur.
Our investment portfolio is comprised almost entirely of fixed income securities rated A or
higher. The principal factors that influence investment income are the size of the portfolio and
its yield. As measured by amortized cost (which excludes changes in fair market value, such as from
changes in interest rates), the size of the investment portfolio is mainly a function of cash
generated from (or used in) operations, such as investment earnings and claim payments, less cash
used for non-operating activities, such as share repurchases. Realized gains and losses are a
function of the difference between the amount received on sale of a security and the securitys
amortized cost. The amount received on sale of fixed income securities is affected by the coupon
rate of the security compared to the yield of comparable securities at the time of sale.
Losses incurred are the current expense that reflects estimated payments that will ultimately
be made as a result of delinquencies on insured loans. As explained under Critical Accounting
Policies, in the 10-K MD&A, except in the case of premium deficiency reserves,
we recognize an estimate of this expense only for delinquent loans. Losses incurred are
generally affected by:
24
|
|
|
The state of the economy and housing values, each of which affects the likelihood
that loans will become delinquent and whether loans that are delinquent cure their
delinquency. The level of delinquencies has historically followed a seasonal pattern,
with a reduction in delinquencies in the first part of the year, followed by an
increase in the latter part of the year. However, although this pattern has continued,
the default inventory has increased each quarter since the second quarter of 2007
because the seasonal pattern has been more than offset by the development of the 2006
and 2007 books of business. |
|
|
|
|
The product mix of the in force book, with loans having higher risk characteristics
generally resulting in higher delinquencies and claims. |
|
|
|
|
The size of loans insured. Higher average loan amounts tend to increase losses
incurred. |
|
|
|
|
The percentage of coverage on insured loans. Deeper average coverage tends to
increase incurred losses. |
|
|
|
|
Changes in housing values, which affect our ability to mitigate our losses through
sales of properties with delinquent mortgages as well as borrower willingness to
continue to make mortgage payments when the value of the home is below the mortgage
balance. |
|
|
|
|
The distribution of claims over the life of a book. Historically, the first two
years after a loan is originated are a period of relatively low claims, with claims
increasing substantially for several years subsequent and then declining, although
persistency, the condition of the economy and other factors can affect this pattern. |
|
|
|
Changes in premium deficiency reserves |
Each quarter, we re-estimate the premium deficiency reserve on the remaining Wall Street bulk
insurance in force. The premium deficiency reserve primarily changes from quarter to quarter as a
result of two factors. First, it changes as the actual premiums, losses and expenses that were
previously estimated are recognized. Each period such items are reflected in our financial
statements as earned premium, losses incurred and expenses. The difference between the amount and
timing of actual earned premiums, losses incurred and expenses and our previous estimates used to
establish the premium deficiency reserves has an effect (either positive or negative) on that
periods results. Second, the premium deficiency reserve changes as our assumptions relating to
the present value of expected future premiums, losses and expenses on the remaining Wall Street
bulk insurance in force change. Changes to these assumptions also have an effect on that periods
results.
|
|
|
Underwriting and other expenses |
The majority of our operating expenses are fixed, with some variability due to contract
underwriting volume. Contract underwriting generates fee income included in Other revenue.
25
Interest expense reflects the interest associated with our debt obligations. Our long-term
debt obligations at September 30, 2008 include our $300 million of 5.375% Senior Notes due in
November 2015, $200 million of 5.625% Senior Notes due in September 2011, $200 million outstanding
under a credit facility expiring in March 2010 and $390 million in convertible debentures due in
2063, as discussed in Note 2. Short- and long-term debt and Note 3. Convertible debentures and
related derivatives to our consolidated financial statements and under Liquidity and Capital
Resources below.
|
|
|
Income (loss) from joint ventures |
Our results of operations are also affected by the results of our joint ventures, which are
accounted for under the equity method. Historically, joint venture income principally consisted of
the aggregate results of our investment in two less than majority owned joint ventures,
Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC, C-BASS, and Sherman Financial Group LLC. In
2007, joint venture losses included an impairment charge equal to our entire equity interest in
C-BASS, as well as equity losses incurred by C-BASS in the fourth quarter that reduced the carrying
value of our $50 million note from C-BASS to zero. As a result, beginning in the first quarter of
2008, our joint venture income principally consisted of income from Sherman. In the third quarter
of 2008, we sold our entire interest in Sherman to Sherman. As a result, beginning in the fourth
quarter of 2008, we expect that our joint venture income will be less material to our results of
operations. Our income (loss) from joint ventures also includes certain tax credit investments,
accounted for in accordance with the equity method of accounting, of an immaterial amount.
Please refer to our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2008 for a
description of the historical business activities of Sherman.
In 2007, C-BASS ceased its operations and is managing its portfolio pursuant to a consensual,
non-bankruptcy restructuring, under which its assets are to be paid out over time to its secured
and unsecured creditors.
Mortgage Insurance Earnings and Cash Flow Cycle
In our industry, a book is the group of loans that a mortgage insurer insures in a
particular calendar year. In general, the majority of any underwriting profit (premium revenue
minus losses) that a book generates occurs in the early years of the book, with the largest portion
of any underwriting profit realized in the first year. Subsequent years of a book generally result
in modest underwriting profit or underwriting losses. This pattern of results typically occurs
because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the
first few years of the book, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected
by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan
prepayments), and losses increase.
2008 Third Quarter Results
Our results of operations in the third quarter of 2008 were principally affected by:
26
|
|
Premiums written and earned |
Premiums written and earned during the third quarter of 2008 increased compared to the same
period in 2007. The increase in premiums resulted from the continued increase in the average
insurance in force; however the effect of the higher in force has been somewhat offset by lower
average premium yields due to a shift in the mix of new writings to loans with lower loan-to-value
ratios, higher FICO scores and full documentation, which carry lower premium rates.
Investment income in the third quarter of 2008 was higher when compared to the same period in
2007 due to an increase in the average amortized cost of invested assets, offset by a decrease in
the pre-tax yield.
Realized gains for the third quarter of 2008 included $62.8 million from the sale of our
remaining interest in Sherman, which was offset by other than temporary impairments on our
investment portfolio of approximately $31.7 million and realized losses on sales of investments of
$3.2 million. Realized gains in the third quarter of 2007 included a $162.9 million pre-tax gain on
the sale of a portion our interest in Sherman.
Losses incurred for the third quarter of 2008 significantly increased compared to the same
period in 2007 primarily due to a significant increase in the default inventory, offset by a
smaller increase in the estimates regarding how much will be paid on claims, or severity, and a
decrease in the estimates regarding how many delinquencies will result in a claim, or claim rate,
when compared to the same period in 2007. The default inventory increased by approximately 23,700
delinquencies in the third quarter of 2008, compared to an increase of approximately 10,200 in the
third quarter of 2007. The continued increase in estimated severity was primarily the result of the
default inventory containing higher loan exposures with expected higher average claim payments as
well as our inability to mitigate losses through the sale of properties due to slowing home price
appreciation or home price declines in some areas. The decrease in estimated claim rate for the
quarter was primarily due to an increase in mitigation from rescissions and denials for
misrepresentation, ineligibility and policy exclusions.
During the third quarter of 2008 the premium deficiency reserve on Wall Street bulk
transactions declined by $204 million from $788 million, as of June 30, 2008, to $584 million as of
September 30, 2008. The $584 million premium deficiency reserve as of September 30, 2008 reflects
the present value of expected future losses and expenses that exceeded the present value of
expected future premium and already established loss reserves.
|
|
Underwriting and other expenses |
27
Underwriting and other expenses for the third quarter of 2008 decreased when compared to the
same period in 2007. The decrease reflects our lower volumes of new insurance written as well as a
focus on expenses in difficult market conditions. Also, the third quarter of 2007 included $11.3
million in one-time expenses associated with a terminated merger.
Interest expense for the third quarter of 2008 increased when compared to the same period in
2007. The increase reflects the issuance of our convertible debentures in March and April of 2008.
|
|
Income from joint ventures |
Income from joint ventures, net of tax, was $3.3 million compared to a loss from joint
ventures, net of tax, of $290.6 million for the same period last year. The loss from joint venture
in the third quarter of 2007 was due primarily to the impairment of our investment in C-BASS. In
the third quarter of 2008 we sold our remaining interest in Sherman. The gain on the sale of our
interest is included in realized gains on our statements of operations.
28
Results of Consolidated Operations
New insurance written
The amount of our primary new insurance written during the three and nine months ended
September 30, 2008 and 2007 was as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
Nine Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
($ billions) |
|
NIW Flow Channel |
|
$ |
9.7 |
|
|
$ |
19.7 |
|
|
$ |
41.2 |
|
|
$ |
47.3 |
|
NIW Bulk Channel |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
|
1.6 |
|
|
|
5.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Primary NIW |
|
$ |
9.7 |
|
|
$ |
21.1 |
|
|
$ |
42.8 |
|
|
$ |
52.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refinance volume as a % of primary
flow NIW |
|
|
12 |
% |
|
|
21 |
% |
|
|
27 |
% |
|
|
23 |
% |
The decrease in new insurance written on a flow basis in the third quarter and first nine
months of 2008, compared to the same periods in 2007, was primarily due to changes in our
underwriting guidelines discussed below, as well as a decrease in the total mortgage origination
market and greater usage of FHA insurance programs as an alternative to mortgage insurance. For a
discussion of new insurance written through the bulk channel, see Bulk transactions below.
We anticipate our flow new insurance written for the full year 2008 to be significantly below
the level written in 2007, due to changes in our underwriting guidelines discussed below as well as
premium rate increases implemented during 2008. We also anticipate that our flow new insurance
written in the fourth quarter of 2008 will be below the level in the third quarter of 2008 for
these same reasons. Our level of new insurance written could also be affected by other items, as
noted in our Risk Factors, which are an integral part of this Managements Discussion and Analysis.
As we had disclosed for some time in our Risk Factors, the percentage of our volume written on
a flow basis that includes segments we view as having a higher probability of claim continued to
increase through 2007. In particular, the percentage of our flow new insurance written with
loan-to-value ratios greater than 95% grew to 42% in 2007, compared to 34% in 2006. For the third
quarter of 2008 the percentage of our flow new insurance written with loan-to-value ratios greater
than 95% declined to 7%, compared to 44% for the same period a year ago. For the first nine months
of 2008 the percentage with loan-to-value ratios greater than 95% was 20%, compared to 43% for the
same period in 2007.
We continue to implement changes to our underwriting guidelines that are designed to improve
the credit risk profile of our new insurance written. The changes primarily affect borrowers who
have multiple risk factors such as a high loan-to-value ratio, a lower FICO score and limited
documentation or are financing a home in a market we categorize as higher risk. We are also
implementing premium rate increases. Several underwriting guidelines and
29
premium rate changes were
implemented during 2008, although a significant portion of our
new business in the first quarter of 2008 was committed to prior to the effective date of these
changes.
Cancellations and insurance in force
New insurance written and cancellations of primary insurance in force during the three and
nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 were as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
Nine Months Ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
($ billions) |
|
NIW |
|
$ |
9.7 |
|
|
$ |
21.1 |
|
|
$ |
42.8 |
|
|
$ |
52.8 |
|
Cancellations |
|
|
(7.9 |
) |
|
|
(10.6 |
) |
|
|
(26.3 |
) |
|
|
(32.7 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in primary insurance
in force |
|
$ |
1.8 |
|
|
$ |
10.5 |
|
|
$ |
16.5 |
|
|
$ |
20.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Direct primary insurance in force was $228.2 billion at September 30, 2008 compared to $211.7
billion at December 31, 2007 and $196.6 billion at September 30, 2007.
Cancellation activity has historically been affected by the level of mortgage interest rates
and the level of home price appreciation. Cancellations generally move inversely to the change in
the direction of interest rates, although they generally lag a change in direction. Our persistency
rate (percentage of insurance remaining in force from one year prior) was 82.1% at September 30,
2008, an increase from 76.4% at December 31, 2007 and 74.0% at September 30, 2007. These
persistency rate improvements reflect the more restrictive credit policies of lenders (which make
it more difficult to refinance loans), as well as the declining rate of home price appreciation in
some markets and declines in housing values in other markets.
Bulk transactions
New insurance written for bulk transactions was zero and $1.6 billion, respectively, for the
third quarter and first nine months of 2008 compared to $1.4 billion and $5.5 billion,
respectively, for the third quarter and first nine months of 2007. The decrease in bulk writings
was primarily due to our decision in the fourth quarter of 2007 to stop insuring Wall Street bulk
transactions. The majority of the bulk business in 2008 was lender paid transactions that included
high quality prime loans and the remainder was bulk business with the GSEs, which also included
prime loans. We expect new insurance written for bulk transactions in 2008 and thereafter to be
significantly lower than the $16.0 billion average volume written through the bulk channel during
the previous three years. Wall Street bulk transactions represented approximately 41%, 66% and 89%
of our new insurance written for bulk transactions during 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively, and at
September 30, 2008 included approximately
30
122,700 loans with insurance in force of approximately $20.7 billion and risk in force of approximately $6.1 billion, which is approximately 64% of our
bulk risk in force.
Pool insurance
In addition to providing primary insurance coverage, we also insure pools of mortgage loans.
New pool risk written during the three months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 was $41 million and
$64 million, respectively. Our direct pool risk in force was $2.2 billion, $2.8 billion and $3.0
billion at September 30, 2008, December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2007, respectively. These risk
amounts represent pools of loans with contractual aggregate loss limits and in some cases those
without these limits. For pools of loans without these limits, risk is estimated based on the
amount that would credit enhance the loans in the pool to a AA level based on a rating agency
model. Under this model, at September 30, 2008, December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2007, for $2.7
billion, $4.1 billion and $4.2 billion, respectively, of risk without these limits, risk in force
is calculated at $306 million, $475 million and $474 million, respectively. For the three months
ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 for $1 million and $9 million, respectively, of risk without
contractual aggregate loss limits, new risk written under this model was $0.1 million and $0.5
million, respectively.
New pool risk written during the nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 was $142
million and $151 million, respectively. Under the model described above, for the nine months ended
September 30, 2008 and 2007 for $23 million and $24 million, respectively, of risk without
contractual aggregate loss limits, new risk written during those periods was calculated at $1
million and $1 million, respectively.
Net premiums written and earned
Net premiums written and earned during the third quarter and first nine months of 2008
increased compared to the same periods in 2007. The average insurance in force continued to
increase, however the effect of the higher in force has been somewhat offset by lower average
premium yields due to a shift in the mix of new writings to loans with lower loan-to-value ratios,
higher FICO scores and full documentation, which carry lower premium rates. We expect our average
insurance in force to continue to be higher in 2008, compared to 2007, with our insurance in force
balance to begin to stabilize or decrease slightly through the remainder of 2008. The decrease in
the total mortgage origination market has also been coupled with greater usage of FHA insurance
programs as an alternative to mortgage insurance.
Despite our premium rate increases, we expect our premium yields to continue to be lower in
2008, compared to 2007, due to the fact that we are no longer insuring Wall Street Bulk
transactions and, as a result of our underwriting changes, we will be insuring fewer loans with
loan-to-value ratios greater than 95%, loans classified as A-minus and reduced documentation loans,
which carry higher premium rates.
Risk sharing arrangements
For the three months ended June 30, 2008, approximately 34.3% of our flow new insurance
written was subject to arrangements with captives or risk sharing arrangements
31
with the GSEs
compared to 47.7% for the year ended December 31, 2007 and 46.7% for the three months ended June
30, 2007. The percentage of new insurance written covered by
these arrangements is shown only for the period ended June 30, 2008 because this percentage
normally increases after the end of a quarter. Such increases can be caused by, among other
things, the transfer of a loan in the secondary market, which can result in a mortgage insured
during a quarter becoming part of a risk sharing arrangement in a subsequent quarter. New insurance
written through the bulk channel is not subject to risk sharing arrangements. Premiums ceded in
these arrangements are reported in the period in which they are ceded regardless of when the
mortgage was insured.
On February 14, 2008 Freddie Mac announced that effective on and after June 1, 2008, Freddie
Mac-approved private mortgage insurers, including MGIC, may not cede new risk if the gross risk or
gross premium ceded to captive reinsurers is greater than 25%. Freddie Mac stated that it made this
change to allow mortgage insurers to retain more insurance premiums to pay current claims and
rebuild their capital bases. Fannie Mae informed us on February 26, 2008 that it was making similar
changes to its requirements. Effective June 1, 2008, we have made the appropriate changes to the
terms of our arrangements with those captives that had exceeded the 25% limit.
In September 2008 we announced that effective January 1, 2009 we will no longer cede new
business under excess of loss reinsurance treaties with lender captive reinsurers. Loans reinsured
through December 31, 2008 will run off pursuant to the terms of the particular captive arrangement.
Quota share reinsurance arrangements are not affected by this announcement. During 2008, a number
of our captive arrangements have either been terminated (in a termination, the arrangement is
cancelled, with no future premium ceded and funds for any incurred but unpaid losses transferred to
MGIC) or placed into run-off (in a run-off, no new loans are reinsured by the captive but loans
previously reinsured continue to be covered, with premium and losses continuing to be ceded on
those loans).
See discussion under -Losses regarding losses assumed by captives.
In June 2008 we entered into a reinsurance agreement with an affiliate of HCC Insurance
Holdings, Inc. The reinsurance agreement is effective on the risk associated with up to $50 billion
of qualifying new insurance written each calendar year. The term of the reinsurance agreement
begins April 1, 2008 and ends on December 31, 2010, subject to two one-year extensions that may be
exercised by HCC. We believe that substantially all of our insurance written subsequent to April 1,
2008 will qualify under the reinsurance agreement.
The reinsurance agreement is expected to provide claims-paying resources in catastrophic loss
environments for insurance written beginning April 1, 2008.
The agreement is accounted for under deposit accounting rather than reinsurance accounting,
because under the guidance of SFAS 113 Accounting for Reinsurance Contracts, we concluded that
the reinsurance agreement does not result in the reasonable possibility that the reinsurer will
suffer a significant loss. The premium ceded to the reinsurer and the brokerage commission paid to
an affiliate of the reinsurer, net of a profit commission to us, is recorded as reinsurance fee
expense on our statement of operations. In non-catastrophic loss environments, we expect the net
expense will be approximately 5% of net premiums earned on business covered by the agreement. The
reinsurance fee for the third quarter and first nine months of 2008 is separately shown in the
statements of operations.
32
Investment income
Investment income for the third quarter and first nine months of 2008 increased when compared
to the same periods in 2007 due to an increase in the average amortized cost of invested assets,
offset by a decrease in the average investment yield. The portfolios average pre-tax investment
yield was 4.05% at September 30, 2008 and 4.70% at September 30, 2007. The portfolios average
after-tax investment yield was 3.61% at September 30, 2008 and 4.15% at September 30, 2007.
Assuming shorter-term yields remain at their current levels, we expect the investment yield will
continue to decline because we are investing available funds in shorter maturities so that they
will be available for claim payments without the need to obtain the necessary funds through sales
of our fixed income investments.
Realized gains
Realized gains for the third quarter of 2008 included $62.8 million from the sale of our
remaining interest in Sherman, which was offset by realized losses and other than temporary
impairment charges of $34.9 million on our fixed income investments including Fannie Mae, Freddie
Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG. Realized gains for the third quarter of 2007 included $162.9 million
from the sale of a portion of our interest in Sherman.
Realized gains for the first nine months of 2008 included $62.8 million from the sale of our
remaining interest in Sherman, which was offset by other than temporary impairments on our
investment portfolio of approximately $40.2 million and realized losses on sales of investments.
Realized gains for the first nine months of 2007 included $162.9 million from the sale of a portion
of our interest in Sherman offset by realized losses. There were no other than temporary
impairments in the first nine months of 2007.
Other revenue
Other revenue for the third quarter of 2008 increased when compared to the same period in
2007. The increase in other revenue was primarily the result of other non-insurance operations.
Other revenue for the first nine months of 2008 increased slightly compared to the same period in
2007. The increase was primarily due to a slight increase in contract underwriting fees.
Losses
As discussed in Critical Accounting Policies in the 10-K MD&A, and consistent with
industry practices, we establish loss reserves for future claims only for loans that are currently
delinquent. The terms delinquent and default are used interchangeably by us and are defined as
an insured loan with a mortgage payment that is 45 days or more past due. Loss reserves are
established by our estimate of the number of loans in our inventory of delinquent loans that will
not cure their delinquency and thus result in a claim, which is referred to as the claim rate
(historically, a substantial majority of delinquent loans have eventually cured), and further
estimating the amount that we will pay in claims on the loans that do not cure, which is referred
to as claim severity.
33
Estimation of losses that we will pay in the future is inherently judgmental. The conditions
that affect the claim rate and claim severity include the current and future state of the
domestic economy and the current and future strength of local housing markets. Current
conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make these assumptions more volatile than they
would otherwise be. The actual amount of the claim payments may be substantially different than our
loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be adversely affected by several factors, including a
deterioration of regional or national economic conditions leading to a reduction in borrowers
income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments, and a drop
in housing values that could adversely affect the ability of borrowers to
cure their defaults through the sale of their homes or influence the
willingness of borrowers who have resources to cure their defaults to
do so. Changes to our estimates could result in a material impact to our results of operations,
even in a stable economic environment.
Our estimates could also be positively affected by government efforts to assist current
borrowers in refinancing to new loan instruments, assisting delinquent borrowers and lenders in
modifying their mortgage notes into something more affordable, and forestalling foreclosures. In
addition private company efforts such as the HOPE NOW program, the Bank of America
(Countrywide) settlement and JP Morgan Chase loan modification
program may have a positive impact on our loss development.
However, all
of these efforts are in their
early stages and therefore we are unsure of their magnitude or the benefit to us or our industry,
and as a result they are not factored into our current reserving.
Losses incurred
Losses incurred for the third quarter of 2008 significantly increased compared to the same
period in 2007 primarily due to a significant increase in the default inventory offset by a smaller
increase in estimated severity, as well as a decrease in estimated claim rate, when each are
compared to the same period in 2007. The default inventory increased by approximately 23,700
delinquencies in the third quarter of 2008, compared to an increase of approximately 10,200 in the
third quarter of 2007. The continued increase in estimated severity was primarily the result of the
default inventory containing higher loan exposures with expected higher average claim payments as
well as our inability to mitigate losses through the sale of properties due to slowing home price
appreciation or home price declines in some areas. The increase was less substantial than the
increase experienced during the third quarter of 2007. The decrease in estimated claim rate for the
quarter was primarily due to an increase in mitigation from rescissions and denials
for misrepresentation, ineligibility and policy exclusions. This decrease in estimated claim rate
is based on recent historical experience and does not take into account any potential benefits of
mitigation programs that are in their early stages for which we have no data on historical
performance.
Losses incurred for the first nine months of 2008 significantly increased compared to the same
period in 2007 primarily due to increases in the default inventory, offset by a slight decrease in
the claim rate, when each of these items is compared to the same period in 2007. The default
inventory increased by approximately 44,800 delinquencies in the first nine months of 2008,
compared to an increase of approximately 12,200 in the first nine months of 2007.
34
Our loss estimates are established based upon historical experience. We continue to experience
increases in delinquencies in certain markets with higher than average loan balances, such as
Florida and California. In California we have experienced an increase in
delinquencies, from 6,900 as of December 31, 2007 to 8,500 as of March 31, 2008, 10,200 as of
June 30, 2008 and 12,000 as of September 30, 2008. Our Florida delinquencies increased from 12,500
as of December 31, 2007 to 15,600 as of March 31, 2008, 19,400 as of June 30, 2008 and 23,800 as of
September 30, 2008. The average claim paid on California loans was more than twice as high as the
average claim paid for the remainder of the country.
We believe that the foregoing trends will likely continue in the fourth quarter of 2008,
resulting in a higher level of incurred losses in 2008, compared to 2007. These trends may also
continue beyond 2008.
As discussed under Risk Sharing Arrangements, a portion of our flow new insurance
written is subject to reinsurance arrangements with captives. The majority of these reinsurance
arrangements are aggregate excess of loss reinsurance agreements, and the remainder are quota share
agreements. As discussed under Risk Sharing Arrangements effective January 1, 2009 we will no
longer cede new business under excess of loss reinsurance treaties with lender captive reinsurers.
Loans reinsured through December 31, 2008 will run off pursuant to the terms of the particular
captive arrangement. Under the aggregate excess of loss agreements, we are responsible for the
first aggregate layer of loss, which is typically between 4% and 5%, the captives are responsible
for the second aggregate layer of loss, which is typically 5% or 10%, and we are responsible for
any remaining loss. The layers are typically expressed as a percentage of the original risk on an
annual book of business reinsured by the captive. The premium cessions on these agreements
typically ranged from 25% to 40% of the direct premium. Under a quota share arrangement premiums
and losses are shared on a pro-rata basis between us and the captives, with the captives portion
of both premiums and losses typically ranging from 25% to 50%. As noted under Risk Sharing
Arrangements based on changes to the GSE requirements, beginning June 1, 2008 our captive
arrangements, both aggregate excess of loss and quota share, are limited to a 25% cede rate.
Under these agreements the captives are required to maintain a separate trust account, of
which we are the sole beneficiary. Premiums ceded to a captive are deposited in the applicable
trust account to support the captives layer of insured risk. These amounts are held in the trust
account and are available to pay reinsured losses. The captives ultimate liability is limited to
the assets in the trust account. When specific time periods are met and the individual trust
account balance has reached a required level, then the individual captive may make authorized
withdrawals from its applicable trust account. In most cases, the captives are also allowed to
withdraw funds from the trust account to pay verifiable federal income taxes and operational
expenses. Conversely, if the account balance falls below certain thresholds, the individual captive
may be required to contribute funds to the trust account. However, in most cases, our sole remedy
if a captive does not contribute such funds is to put the captive into run-off, in which case no
new business would be ceded to the captive. In the event that the captives incurred but unpaid
losses exceed the funds in the trust account, and the captive does not deposit adequate funds, we
intend to terminate the captive agreement, assume the captives obligations, transfer the amount in
the trust accounts to us, and retain all future premium payments. However, if the captive would
challenge our right to do so, the matter would be determined by arbitration. The total fair value
of the trust fund assets under these agreements at September 30, 2008 exceeded $790 million.
35
In the third quarter and first nine months of 2008 the captive arrangements reduced our losses
incurred by approximately $157 million and $306 million, respectively. We anticipate that the
reduction in losses incurred will continue at this level in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Information about the composition of the primary insurance default inventory at September 30,
2008, December 31, 2007 and September 30, 2007 appears in the table below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
December 31, |
|
September 30, |
|
|
2008 |
2007 |
|
2007 |
Total loans delinquent (1)
|
|
|
151,908 |
|
|
|
107,120 |
|
|
|
90,829 |
|
Percentage of loans delinquent (default rate)
|
|
|
10.20 |
% |
|
|
7.45 |
% |
|
|
6.63 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prime loans delinquent (2)
|
|
|
76,110 |
|
|
|
49,333 |
|
|
|
41,412 |
|
Percentage of prime loans delinquent (default rate)
|
|
|
6.25 |
% |
|
|
4.33 |
% |
|
|
3.86 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A-minus loans delinquent (2)
|
|
|
28,384 |
|
|
|
22,863 |
|
|
|
19,918 |
|
Percentage of A-minus loans delinquent (default
rate)
|
|
|
25.93 |
% |
|
|
19.20 |
% |
|
|
17.35 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subprime credit loans delinquent (2)
|
|
|
12,705 |
|
|
|
12,915 |
|
|
|
12,186 |
|
Percentage of subprime credit loans delinquent
(default rate)
|
|
|
39.62 |
% |
|
|
34.08 |
% |
|
|
30.65 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reduced documentation loans delinquent (3)
|
|
|
34,709 |
|
|
|
22,009 |
|
|
|
17,313 |
|
Percentage of reduced doc loans delinquent
(default rate)
|
|
|
26.75 |
% |
|
|
15.48 |
% |
|
|
12.14 |
% |
|
|
|
(1) |
|
At September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007, 42,899 and 39,704 loans in default, respectively,
related to Wall Street bulk transactions. |
|
(2) |
|
We define prime loans as those having FICO credit scores of 620 or greater, A-minus loans as
those having FICO credit scores of 575-619, and subprime credit loans as those having FICO credit
scores of less than 575, all as reported to us at the time a commitment to insure is issued. Most
A-minus and subprime credit loans were written through the bulk channel. |
|
(3) |
|
In accordance with industry practice, loans approved by GSE and other automated underwriting
(AU) systems under doc waiver programs that do not require verification of borrower income are
classified by MGIC as full documentation. Based in part on information provided by the GSEs,
MGIC estimates full documentation loans of this type were approximately 4% of 2007 NIW. Information
for other periods is not available. MGIC understands these AU systems grant such doc waivers for
loans they judge to have higher credit quality. To the extent the percentage of loans judged to
have higher credit quality increases, the percentage of such doc waivers would also be expected to
increase. |
In the second quarter of 2008 a large servicer changed their methodology for reporting
delinquencies to us and the industry for loans greater than 12 months old. Under the new
methodology this servicer is now reporting delinquencies to us sooner than they had historically
and is now reporting consistent with substantially all other servicers. As a result of this change
the servicer reported approximately 4,400 more delinquencies to us in
the second quarter, which
represented 30% of our total increase in delinquencies for that quarter. Because our reserves for
estimated losses include loans that are delinquent but not yet reported to us by servicers within
our incurred but not reported, or IBNR reserves, this change by the servicer did not have any
effect on our overall loss reserves.
36
The pool notice inventory increased from 25,224 at December 31, 2007 to 29,916 at September
30, 2008; the pool notice inventory was 22,031 at September 30, 2007.
The average primary claim paid for the third quarter of 2008 was $53,930 compared to $39,021
for the same period in 2007. The average primary claim paid for the first nine months of 2008 was
$52,737 compared to $34,541 for the same period in 2007. We expect the average primary claim paid
to continue to increase in the fourth quarter of 2008 and beyond. We expect these increases will be
driven by our higher average insured loan sizes as well as decreases in our ability to mitigate
losses through the sale of properties in some geographical regions, as certain housing markets,
like California and Florida, continue to be weak.
The average claim paid for the top 5 states (based on 2008 losses paid) for the three and nine
months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 appears in the table below.
Average claim paid
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three months ended |
|
|
Nine months ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
California |
|
$ |
116,058 |
|
|
$ |
96,817 |
|
|
$ |
116,641 |
|
|
$ |
85,103 |
|
Florida |
|
|
68,810 |
|
|
|
59,412 |
|
|
|
69,886 |
|
|
|
47,481 |
|
Michigan |
|
|
36,067 |
|
|
|
36,287 |
|
|
|
36,918 |
|
|
|
35,212 |
|
Ohio |
|
|
30,733 |
|
|
|
31,955 |
|
|
|
33,098 |
|
|
|
31,493 |
|
Arizona |
|
|
64,170 |
|
|
|
59,984 |
|
|
|
69,900 |
|
|
|
50,123 |
|
Other states |
|
|
43,850 |
|
|
|
35,116 |
|
|
|
43,022 |
|
|
|
32,147 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All states |
|
$ |
53,930 |
|
|
$ |
39,021 |
|
|
$ |
52,737 |
|
|
$ |
34,541 |
|
The average loan size of our insurance in force at September 30, 2008, December 31, 2007 and
September 30, 2007 appears in the table below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
December 31, |
|
September 30, |
Average loan size |
|
2008 |
|
2007 |
|
2007 |
Total insurance in force |
|
$ |
153,290 |
|
|
$ |
147,308 |
|
|
$ |
143,460 |
|
Prime (FICO 620 & >) |
|
|
150,040 |
|
|
|
141,690 |
|
|
|
136,740 |
|
A-Minus (FICO 575-619) |
|
|
133,090 |
|
|
|
133,460 |
|
|
|
131,580 |
|
Subprime (FICO < 575) |
|
|
121,990 |
|
|
|
124,530 |
|
|
|
125,030 |
|
Reduced doc (All FICOs) |
|
|
208,660 |
|
|
|
209,990 |
|
|
|
208,690 |
|
The average loan size of our insurance in force at September 30, 2008, December 31, 2007 and
September 30, 2007 for the top 5 states (based on 2008 losses paid) appears in the table below.
37
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
December 31, |
|
September 30, |
Average loan size |
|
2008 |
|
2007 |
|
2007 |
California |
|
$ |
293,425 |
|
|
$ |
291,578 |
|
|
$ |
284,361 |
|
Florida |
|
|
180,475 |
|
|
|
178,063 |
|
|
|
174,635 |
|
Michigan |
|
|
120,982 |
|
|
|
119,428 |
|
|
|
118,577 |
|
Ohio |
|
|
115,779 |
|
|
|
113,276 |
|
|
|
112,156 |
|
Arizona |
|
|
190,673 |
|
|
|
185,518 |
|
|
|
179,870 |
|
All other states |
|
|
147,699 |
|
|
|
141,297 |
|
|
|
146,642 |
|
Information about net paid claims during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008
and 2007 appears in the table below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three months ended |
|
|
Nine months ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
Net paid claims ($ millions) |
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
Prime (FICO 620 & >) |
|
$ |
131 |
|
|
$ |
87 |
|
|
$ |
412 |
|
|
$ |
229 |
|
A-Minus (FICO 575-619) |
|
|
54 |
|
|
|
43 |
|
|
|
195 |
|
|
|
113 |
|
Subprime (FICO < 575) |
|
|
32 |
|
|
|
26 |
|
|
|
108 |
|
|
|
68 |
|
Reduced doc (All FICOs) |
|
|
94 |
|
|
|
54 |
|
|
|
317 |
|
|
|
112 |
|
Other |
|
|
23 |
|
|
|
24 |
|
|
|
72 |
|
|
|
72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Direct losses paid |
|
|
334 |
|
|
|
234 |
|
|
|
1,104 |
|
|
|
594 |
|
Reinsurance |
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
(18 |
) |
|
|
(8 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net losses paid |
|
$ |
330 |
|
|
$ |
232 |
|
|
$ |
1,086 |
|
|
$ |
586 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Primary claims paid for the top 15 states (based on 2008 losses paid) and all other states for
the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007 appear in the table below.
38
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three months ended |
|
|
Nine months ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
Paid claims by state ($ millions) |
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
California |
|
$ |
81.9 |
|
|
$ |
26.1 |
|
|
$ |
256.1 |
|
|
$ |
38.6 |
|
Florida |
|
|
32.6 |
|
|
|
10.0 |
|
|
|
98.6 |
|
|
|
16.9 |
|
Michigan |
|
|
20.8 |
|
|
|
25.7 |
|
|
|
77.3 |
|
|
|
71.8 |
|
Ohio |
|
|
12.2 |
|
|
|
18.6 |
|
|
|
47.6 |
|
|
|
55.1 |
|
Arizona |
|
|
15.9 |
|
|
|
3.0 |
|
|
|
45.3 |
|
|
|
4.4 |
|
Illinois |
|
|
11.9 |
|
|
|
10.1 |
|
|
|
39.3 |
|
|
|
24.6 |
|
Georgia |
|
|
8.9 |
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
|
|
38.3 |
|
|
|
25.3 |
|
Texas |
|
|
10.9 |
|
|
|
12.1 |
|
|
|
37.6 |
|
|
|
37.8 |
|
Nevada |
|
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
3.7 |
|
|
|
34.8 |
|
|
|
6.2 |
|
Minnesota |
|
|
8.6 |
|
|
|
9.7 |
|
|
|
34.4 |
|
|
|
23.2 |
|
Colorado |
|
|
6.4 |
|
|
|
7.9 |
|
|
|
26.0 |
|
|
|
23.2 |
|
Virginia |
|
|
7.9 |
|
|
|
3.4 |
|
|
|
24.9 |
|
|
|
6.9 |
|
Massachusetts |
|
|
5.9 |
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
|
|
23.0 |
|
|
|
15.5 |
|
Indiana |
|
|
5.7 |
|
|
|
8.8 |
|
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
|
25.1 |
|
Maryland |
|
|
5.1 |
|
|
|
1.9 |
|
|
|
17.9 |
|
|
|
3.0 |
|
Other states |
|
|
64.3 |
|
|
|
53.0 |
|
|
|
210.9 |
|
|
|
144.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
311.0 |
|
|
|
210.0 |
|
|
|
1,032.0 |
|
|
|
522.0 |
|
Other (Pool, LAE, Reinsurance) |
|
|
19.0 |
|
|
|
22.0 |
|
|
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
64.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
330.0 |
|
|
$ |
232.0 |
|
|
$ |
1,086.0 |
|
|
$ |
586.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39
The default inventory in those same states at September 30, 2008, December 31, 2007 and
September 30, 2007 appears in the table below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
December 31, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
Default inventory by state |
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2007 |
|
California |
|
|
12,037 |
|
|
|
6,925 |
|
|
|
5,314 |
|
Florida |
|
|
23,799 |
|
|
|
12,548 |
|
|
|
8,733 |
|
Michigan |
|
|
8,672 |
|
|
|
7,304 |
|
|
|
6,755 |
|
Ohio |
|
|
7,637 |
|
|
|
6,901 |
|
|
|
6,289 |
|
Arizona |
|
|
4,776 |
|
|
|
2,170 |
|
|
|
1,508 |
|
Illinois |
|
|
7,586 |
|
|
|
5,435 |
|
|
|
4,593 |
|
Georgia |
|
|
6,283 |
|
|
|
4,623 |
|
|
|
3,883 |
|
Texas |
|
|
8,634 |
|
|
|
7,103 |
|
|
|
6,287 |
|
Nevada |
|
|
2,865 |
|
|
|
1,338 |
|
|
|
918 |
|
Minnesota |
|
|
3,205 |
|
|
|
2,478 |
|
|
|
2,183 |
|
Colorado |
|
|
1,996 |
|
|
|
1,534 |
|
|
|
1,392 |
|
Virginia |
|
|
2,782 |
|
|
|
1,760 |
|
|
|
1,390 |
|
Massachusetts |
|
|
2,260 |
|
|
|
1,596 |
|
|
|
1,381 |
|
Indiana |
|
|
4,832 |
|
|
|
3,763 |
|
|
|
3,483 |
|
Maryland |
|
|
2,624 |
|
|
|
1,595 |
|
|
|
1,213 |
|
Other states |
|
|
51,920 |
|
|
|
40,047 |
|
|
|
35,507 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
151,908 |
|
|
|
107,120 |
|
|
|
90,829 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The rate at which claims are received and paid has slowed due to various state and lender
foreclosure moratoriums, servicing delays, fraud investigations by us, our pursuit of mitigation
opportunities and a lack of capacity in the court systems. We anticipate that net paid claims for
2008 will approximate $1.5 billion, which is below our previously disclosed range of $1.8 billion
to $2.0 billion due to the slower rate at which claims are currently being received and paid.
As of September 30, 2008, 77% of our primary insurance in force was written subsequent to
December 31, 2004. On our flow business, the highest claim frequency years have typically been the
third and fourth year after the year of loan origination. However, the pattern of claims frequency
can be affected by many factors, including low persistency and deteriorating economic conditions.
Low persistency can have the effect of accelerating the period in the life of a book during which
the highest claim frequency occurs. Deteriorating economic conditions can result in increasing
claims following a period of declining claims. On our bulk business, the period of highest claims
frequency has generally occurred earlier than in the historical pattern on our flow business.
Premium deficiency
During the third quarter of 2008 the premium deficiency reserve on Wall Street bulk
transactions declined by $204 million from $788 million, as of June 30, 2008, to $584 million as of
September 30, 2008. During the first nine months of 2008 the premium deficiency reserve on Wall
Street bulk transaction declined by $627 million from $1,211 million as of December 31, 2007. The
$584 million premium deficiency reserve as of September 30, 2008
40
reflects the present value of
expected future losses and expenses that exceeded the present
value of expected future premium and already established loss reserves.
The components of the premium deficiency reserve at December 31, 2007, June 30, 2008 and
September 30, 2008 appears in the table below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 31, |
|
|
June 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
($ millions) |
|
|
|
|
|
Present value of expected future premium |
|
$ |
901 |
|
|
$ |
829 |
|
|
$ |
724 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Present value of expected future paid losses
and expenses |
|
|
(3,561 |
) |
|
|
(3,263 |
) |
|
|
(3,116 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net present value of future cash flows |
|
|
(2,660 |
) |
|
|
(2,434 |
) |
|
|
(2,392 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Established loss reserves |
|
|
1,449 |
|
|
|
1,646 |
|
|
|
1,808 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net deficiency |
|
$ |
(1,211 |
) |
|
$ |
(788 |
) |
|
$ |
(584 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Each quarter, we re-estimate the premium deficiency reserve on the remaining Wall Street bulk
insurance in force. The premium deficiency reserve primarily changes from quarter to quarter as a
result of two factors. First, it changes as the actual premiums, losses and expenses that were
previously estimated are recognized. Each period such items are reflected in our financial
statements as earned premium, losses incurred and expenses. The difference between the amount and
timing of actual earned premiums, losses incurred and expenses and our previous estimates used to
establish the premium deficiency reserves has an effect (either positive or negative) on that
periods results. Second, the premium deficiency reserve changes as our assumptions relating to
the present value of expected future premiums, losses and expenses on the remaining Wall Street
bulk insurance in force change. Changes to these assumptions also have an effect on that periods
results. The decrease in the premium deficiency reserve for the three months ended September 30,
2008 was $204 million, which represents the net result of actual premiums, losses and expenses
offset by $85 million change in assumptions primarily related to lower estimated ultimate premiums.
The decrease in the premium deficiency reserve for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 was
$627 million, which represents the net result of actual premiums, losses and expenses offset by
$115 million change in assumptions primarily related to lower estimated ultimate premiums and
higher estimated ultimate losses.
After the end of the third quarter, we performed a premium deficiency
analysis on the portion of our book of business not covered by the
premium deficiency reserve described above. That
analysis concluded that, as of September 30, 2008, there was no
premium deficiency on such portion of our book of business. For the
reasons discussed below, our analysis of any potential deficiency
reserve is subject to
inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgment by management.
To the extent, in a future period, expected losses are higher or expected
premiums are lower than the assumptions we used in our analysis, we
could be required to record a premium deficiency reserve on this
portion of our book of business in such period.
The calculation of premium deficiency reserves requires the use of significant judgments and
estimates to determine the present value of future premium and present value of expected losses and
expenses on our business. The present value of future premium relies on, among other things,
assumptions about persistency and repayment patterns on underlying loans. The present value of
expected losses and expenses depends on assumptions relating to severity of claims and claim rates
on current defaults, and expected defaults in future periods. Assumptions used in calculating the
deficiency reserves can be affected by volatility in the current housing and mortgage lending
industries. To the extent premium patterns and actual loss experience differ from the assumptions
used in calculating the premium deficiency
41
reserves, the differences between the actual results and
our estimate will affect future period earnings.
As is the case with our loss reserves (See Critical Accounting Policies in our 10-K MD&A),
the severity of claims and claim rates, as well as persistency for the premium deficiency
calculation, are likely to be affected by external events, including actual economic conditions.
However, our estimation process does not include a correlation between these economic conditions
and our assumptions because it is our experience that an analysis of that nature would not produce
reliable results. In considering the potential sensitivity of the factors underlying managements
best estimate of premium deficiency reserves, it is possible that even a relatively small change in
estimated claim rate or a relatively small percentage change in estimated claim amount could have a
significant impact on the premium deficiency reserve and, correspondingly, on our results of
operations. For example, a $1,000 change in the average severity combined with a 1% change in the
average claim rate could change the Wall Street bulk premium deficiency reserve amount by approximately $130
million. Additionally, a 5% change in the persistency of the
underlying loans could change the Wall Street bulk
premium deficiency reserve amount by approximately $24 million. We do not anticipate changes in
the discount rate will be significant enough as to result in material changes in the calculation.
The establishment of premium deficiency reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and
requires judgment by management. The actual amount of claim payments and premium collections may
vary significantly from the premium deficiency reserve estimates. Similar to our loss reserve
estimates, our estimates for premium deficiency reserves could be adversely affected by several
factors, including a deterioration of regional or economic conditions leading to a reduction in
borrowers income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments, and a drop in housing values
that could expose us to greater losses. Changes to our estimates could result in material changes
in our operations, even in a stable economic environment. Adjustments to premium deficiency
reserves estimates are reflected in the financial statements in the years in which the adjustments
are made.
Underwriting and other expenses
Underwriting and other expenses for the third quarter and first nine months of 2008 decreased
when compared to the same periods in 2007. The decrease reflects our lower volumes of new insurance
written as well as a focus on expenses in difficult market conditions. Also, the third quarter and
first nine months of 2007 included $11.3 million in one-time expenses associated with the
terminated merger.
42
Ratios
The table below presents our loss, expense and combined ratios for our combined insurance
operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three months ended |
|
|
Nine months ended |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
Loss ratio |
|
|
230.3 |
% |
|
|
187.6 |
% |
|
|
208.8 |
% |
|
|
110.0 |
% |
Expense ratio |
|
|
13.5 |
% |
|
|
15.4 |
% |
|
|
14.5 |
% |
|
|
16.6 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Combined ratio |
|
|
243.8 |
% |
|
|
203.0 |
% |
|
|
223.3 |
% |
|
|
126.6 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The loss ratio is the ratio, expressed as a percentage, of the sum of incurred losses and loss
adjustment expenses to net premiums earned. The loss ratio does not reflect any effects due to
premium deficiency. The increase in the loss ratio in the third quarter and first nine months of
2008, compared to the same periods in 2007, is due to an increase in losses incurred, partially
offset by an increase in premiums earned. The expense ratio is the ratio, expressed as a
percentage, of underwriting expenses to net premiums written. The decrease in the third quarter and
first nine months of 2008, compared to the same periods in 2007, is due to a decrease in
underwriting and other expenses as well as an increase in premiums written. The combined ratio is
the sum of the loss ratio and the expense ratio.
Interest expense
Interest expense for the third quarter and first nine months of 2008 increased compared to the
same periods in 2007. The increase reflects the issuance of the $390 million of convertible
debentures in March and April of 2008.
Income taxes
The effective tax rate on our pre-tax loss was 43.3% in the third quarter of 2008, compared to
43.2% in the third quarter of 2007. During those periods, the rate reflected the benefits
recognized from tax-preferenced investments. Our tax-preferenced investments that impact the
effective tax rate consist almost entirely of tax-exempt municipal bonds.
The effective tax rate on our pre-tax loss was 45.0% in the first nine months of 2008,
compared to an effective tax rate on our pre-tax income of (439.1%) in the first nine months of
2007. The difference in the rate was primarily the result of a pre-tax loss during the first nine
months of 2008, compared to pre-tax income during the first nine months of 2007.
Joint ventures
Our equity in the earnings from Sherman and C-BASS and certain other joint ventures and
investments, accounted for in accordance with the equity method of accounting, is shown separately,
net of tax, on our consolidated statement of operations. Income from joint
43
ventures, net of tax, was $3.3 million in the third quarter of 2008 compared to a loss from
joint ventures, net of tax, of $290.6 million for the same period last year. The loss from joint
venture in the third quarter of 2007 was due primarily to the impairment of our investment in
C-BASS. See discussion regarding C-BASS below. In the third quarter of 2008, we sold our remaining
interest in Sherman to Sherman. As a result, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008, we expect
that our joint venture income will be less material to our results of operations. Our income (loss)
from joint ventures also includes certain tax credit investments, accounted for in accordance with
the equity method of accounting, of an immaterial amount.
Income from joint ventures, net of tax, was $24.5 million in the first nine months of 2008
compared to a loss from joint ventures, net of tax, of $244.7 million for the same period last
year. The loss from joint venture in 2007 was due primarily to the impairment of our investment in
C-BASS.
C-BASS
Beginning in February 2007 and continuing through approximately the end of March 2007, the
subprime mortgage market experienced significant turmoil. After a period of relative stability that
persisted during April, May and through approximately late June, market dislocations recurred and
then accelerated to unprecedented levels beginning in approximately mid-July 2007. As noted in the
section titled C-BASS Impairment in our 10-K MD&A, in the third quarter of 2007, we concluded
that our total equity interest in C-BASS was impaired. In addition, during the fourth quarter of
2007 due to additional losses incurred by C-BASS, we reduced the carrying value of our $50 million
note from C-BASS to zero under equity method accounting.
Sherman
In August 2008 we sold our entire interest in Sherman to Sherman. Our interest sold
represented approximately 24.25% of Shermans equity. The sale price was paid $124.5 million in
cash and by delivery of Shermans unsecured promissory note in the principal amount of $85 million.
The scheduled maturity of the Note is February 13, 2011 and it bears interest, payable monthly, at
the annual rate equal to three-month LIBOR plus 500 basis points. The Note is issued under a
Credit Agreement, dated August 13, 2008, between Sherman and MGIC.
At
the time of sale the note had a fair value of $69.5 million
(18.25% discount to par). The
fair value was determined by comparing the terms of the note to the discounts and yields on
comparable bonds. The value was also discounted for illiquidity and lack of ratings. The discount
will be amortized to interest income over the life of the note. The gain recognized on the sale was
$62.8 million, and is included in realized investment gains on the statement of operations for the
three and nine months ended September 30, 2008.
As a result of the sale we are entitled to an additional cash payment if by approximately
early March 2009 Sherman or certain of its management affiliates enter into a definitive agreement
covering a transaction involving the sale or purchase of interests in Sherman in which the fair
value of the consideration reflects a value of Sherman over $1 billion plus an additional amount.
The additional amount is $33 million if a definitive agreement is entered into by approximately
early September 2008 and increases by $11 million for each monthly
44
period that elapses after approximately early September 2008 until a monthly period beginning
in early February 2009, when the additional amount is $100 million. A qualifying purchase or sale
transaction must close for us to be entitled to an additional payment.
In connection with the sale we waived, effective at the time at which the Note is paid in
full, our right to any contingent consideration for the sale of the interests in Sherman that we
sold in September 2007 to an entity owned by the management of Sherman. Under that sale, we are
entitled to an additional cash payment if the purchasers after-tax rate of return on the interests
purchased exceeds a threshold that equates to an annual return of 16%.
For additional information regarding the sale of our interest please refer to our Current
Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 14, 2008.
Summary Sherman income statements for the periods indicated appear below. The third quarter
and first nine months of 2008 only reflect Shermans results and our share of income from Sherman
through July 31, 2008 as a result of the sale of our interest in August 2008. Prior to the sale of
our interest, we did not consolidate Sherman with us for financial reporting purposes, and we did
not control Sherman. Shermans internal controls over its financial reporting were not part of our
internal controls over our financial reporting. However, our internal controls over our financial
reporting include processes to assess the effectiveness of our financial reporting as it pertains
to Sherman. We believe those processes are effective in the context of our overall internal
controls.
Sherman Summary Income Statement:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three months ended * |
|
|
Nine months ended * |
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
($ millions) |
|
Revenues from receivable portfolios |
|
$ |
86.6 |
|
|
$ |
273.8 |
|
|
$ |
660.3 |
|
|
$ |
832.9 |
|
Portfolio amortization |
|
|
30.9 |
|
|
|
135.5 |
|
|
|
264.8 |
|
|
|
398.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues, net of amortization |
|
|
55.7 |
|
|
|
138.3 |
|
|
|
395.5 |
|
|
|
434.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Credit card interest income and fees |
|
|
66.7 |
|
|
|
161.5 |
|
|
|
475.6 |
|
|
|
422.7 |
|
Other revenue |
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
(1.4 |
) |
|
|
35.3 |
|
|
|
29.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
|
|
123.5 |
|
|
|
298.4 |
|
|
|
906.4 |
|
|
|
887.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total expenses |
|
|
101.3 |
|
|
|
238.2 |
|
|
|
740.1 |
|
|
|
674.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income before tax |
|
$ |
22.2 |
|
|
$ |
60.2 |
|
|
$ |
166.3 |
|
|
$ |
213.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Companys income from Sherman |
|
$ |
4.5 |
|
|
$ |
18.1 |
|
|
$ |
35.6 |
|
|
$ |
70.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* |
|
The three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 only reflect Shermans results and our
income from Sherman through July 31, 2008 as a result of the sale of our remaining interest in
August 2008. |
In September 2007 we sold a portion of our interest in Sherman to an entity owned by Shermans
senior management. The interest sold by us represented approximately 16% of
Shermans equity. We received a cash payment of $240.8 million in the sale and recorded a
45
$162.9
million pre-tax gain, which is reflected in our results of operations for 2007 as a realized gain.
The Companys income from Sherman line item in the table above includes $0.4 million and
$3.6 million of additional amortization expense in the third quarter and first nine months of 2008,
respectively, and $3.6 and $13.9 million in the third quarter and first nine months of 2007 above
Shermans actual amortization expense, related to additional interests in Sherman that we purchased
during the third quarter of 2006 at a price in excess of book value.
Financial Condition
As of September 30, 2008, 77% of our investment portfolio was invested in tax-preferenced
securities. In addition, at September 30, 2008, based on book value, approximately 95% of our fixed
income securities were invested in A rated and above, readily marketable securities, concentrated
in maturities of less than 15 years. Approximately 26% of our investment portfolio is covered by
the financial guaranty industry. We evaluate the credit risk of securities through analysis of the
underlying fundamentals of each issuer. A breakdown of the portion of our investment portfolio
covered by the financial guaranty industry by credit rating, including the rating without the
guarantee is shown below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guarantor Rating |
|
|
AAA |
|
AA |
|
A |
|
B |
|
All |
|
|
|
|
|
($ millions) |
Underlying Rating |
AAA |
|
$ |
2 |
|
|
$ |
52 |
|
|
$ |
5 |
|
|
$ |
|
|
|
$ |
59 |
|
AA |
|
|
262 |
|
|
|
144 |
|
|
|
234 |
|
|
|
203 |
|
|
|
843 |
|
A |
|
|
169 |
|
|
|
248 |
|
|
|
188 |
|
|
|
129 |
|
|
|
734 |
|
BBB |
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
30 |
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
29 |
|
|
|
90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
444 |
|
|
$ |
474 |
|
|
$ |
447 |
|
|
$ |
361 |
|
|
$ |
1,726 |
|
If all of the companies in the financial guaranty industry lose their AAA ratings, the
percentage of our fixed income portfolio rated A or better will decline by 1% to 94% A or
better. No individual guarantor is responsible for the guarantee of more than 10% of our portfolio.
At September 30, 2008, derivative financial instruments in our investment portfolio were
immaterial. We primarily place our investments in instruments that meet high credit quality
standards, as specified in our investment policy guidelines. The policy also limits the amount of
our credit exposure to any one issue, issuer and type of instrument. At September 30, 2008, the
modified duration of our fixed income investment portfolio was 4.6 years, which means that an
instantaneous parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points would result in a change of
4.6% in the market value of our fixed income portfolio. For an upward shift in the yield curve, the
market value of our portfolio would decrease and for a downward shift in the yield curve, the
market value would increase.
At September 30, 2008, our total assets included $1.1 billion of cash and cash equivalents as
shown on our consolidated balance sheet. In addition, included in Other assets on our
consolidated balance sheet at September 30, 2008 is $49.4 million in real estate acquired as
46
part
of the claim settlement process. The properties, which are held for sale, are carried at fair
value. Also included in Other assets is $62.7 million representing the overfunded status of our
pension plan, which is measured annually as of December 31, and $70.6 million of note and interest receivable related to the sale of our remaining
interest in Sherman.
At September 30, 2008 we had $200 million, 5.625% Senior Notes due in September 2011 and $300
million, 5.375% Senior Notes due in November 2015, as well as $200 million outstanding under a
credit facility, with a total market value of $529.7 million. The credit facility is scheduled to
expire in March 2010. This credit facility is discussed under Liquidity and Capital Resources
below.
At September 30, 2008, we also had $390 million principal amount of 9% Convertible Junior
Subordinated Debentures due in 2063. At issuance, within the $390 million principal amount was an
embedded derivative with a value of $16.9 million. The amount of the derivative is treated as a
discount on issuance and is being amortized over the expected life of five years to interest
expense. The fair value of the convertible debentures was approximately $291.6 million at September
30, 2008.
The total amount of unrecognized tax benefits as of September 30, 2008 is $87.5 million.
Included in that total are $75.7 million in benefits that would affect our effective tax rate. We
recognize interest accrued and penalties related to unrecognized tax benefits in income taxes. We
have accrued $21.1 million for the payment of interest as of September 30, 2008. The establishment
of this liability required estimates of potential outcomes of various issues and required
significant judgment. Although the resolutions of these issues are uncertain, we believe that
sufficient provisions for income taxes have been made for potential liabilities that may result.
If the resolutions of these matters differ materially from these estimates, it could have a
material impact on our effective tax rate, results of operations and cash flows.
On June 1, 2007, as a result of an examination by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for
taxable years 2000 through 2004, we received a Revenue Agent Report (RAR). The adjustments
reported on the RAR substantially increase taxable income for those tax years and resulted in the
issuance of an assessment for unpaid taxes totaling $189.5 million in taxes and accuracy-related
penalties, plus applicable interest. We have agreed with the IRS on certain issues and paid $10.5
million in additional taxes and interest. The remaining open issue relates to our treatment of the
flow through income and loss from an investment in a portfolio of residual interests of Real Estate
Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICS). The IRS has indicated that it does not believe that, for
various reasons, we have established sufficient tax basis in the REMIC residual interests to deduct
the losses from taxable income. We disagree with this conclusion and believe that the flow through
income and loss from these investments was properly reported on our federal income tax returns in
accordance with applicable tax laws and regulations in effect during the periods involved and have
appealed these adjustments. The appeals process may take some time and a final resolution may not
be reached until a date many months or years into the future. On July 2, 2007, we made a payment of
$65.2 million with the United States Department of the Treasury to eliminate the further accrual of
interest. Although the resolution of this issue is uncertain, we believe that sufficient
provisions for income taxes have been made for potential liabilities
that may result. If the resolution of this matter differs materially from our estimates, it
could have a material impact on our effective tax rate, results of operations and cash flows.
47
Our principal exposure to loss is our obligation to pay claims under MGICs mortgage guaranty
insurance policies. At September 30, 2008, MGICs direct (before any reinsurance) primary and pool
risk in force, which is the unpaid principal balance of insured loans as reflected in our records
multiplied by the coverage percentage, and taking account of any loss limit, was approximately
$64.0 billion. In addition, as part of our contract underwriting activities, we are responsible for
the quality of our underwriting decisions in accordance with the terms of the contract underwriting
agreements with customers. Through September 30, 2008, the cost of remedies provided by us to
customers for failing to meet the standards of the contracts has not been material. However, a
generally positive economic environment for residential real estate that continued until 2007 may
have mitigated the effect of some of these costs, the claims for which may lag deterioration in the
economic environment for residential real estate. There can be no assurance that contract
underwriting remedies will not be material in the future.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Overview
Our sources of funds consist primarily of:
|
|
|
our investment portfolio (which is discussed in Financial Condition above), and
interest income on the portfolio, |
|
|
|
|
premiums that we will receive from our existing insurance in force as well as
policies that we write in the future, |
|
|
|
|
amounts, if any, remaining available under our credit facility expiring in March
2010, |
|
|
|
|
amounts received from the redemption of U.S. government non-interest bearing tax and
loss bonds, |
|
|
|
|
amounts that we expect to recover from captives (which is discussed in Results of
Consolidated Operations Risk-Sharing Arrangements and Results of Consolidated
Operations Losses Losses Incurred above) and |
|
|
|
|
amounts we may recover under our reinsurance agreement with HCC (which is discussed
in Results of Consolidated Operations Risk-Sharing Arrangements above). |
Our obligations consist primarily of:
|
|
|
claims payments under MGICs mortgage guaranty insurance policies, |
|
|
|
|
the amount outstanding under our credit facility expiring in March 2010, |
|
|
|
|
our $200 million of 5.625% Senior Notes due in September 2011, |
|
|
|
|
our $300 million of 5.375% Senior Notes due in November 2015, |
48
|
|
|
our $390 million of convertible debentures due in 2063, |
|
|
|
|
interest on the foregoing debt instruments and |
|
|
|
|
the other costs and operating expenses of our business. |
Historically cash inflows from premiums have exceeded claim payments. When this is the case,
we invest positive cash flows pending future payments of claims and other expenses. However, we
anticipate that in future periods claim payments will exceed premiums received. In addition, our
Wall Street bulk insurance in force will generate cash flow shortfalls beyond 2008 as this
insurance runs off. (See Losses Premium deficiency). When we experience cash shortfalls, we
can fund them through sales of short-term investments and other investment portfolio securities,
subject to insurance regulatory requirements regarding the payment of dividends to the extent funds
were required by an entity other than the seller. Substantially all of the investment portfolio
securities are held by our insurance subsidiaries.
To increase our capital position, in the first quarter of 2008, we raised proceeds of
approximately $815 million through the sale of our common stock and junior convertible debentures.
We also raised an additional approximately $25 million in April 2008 through the sale of additional
debentures. In the second quarter of 2008, we further enhanced our capital resources by entering
into the reinsurance agreement with HCC discussed under Results of Consolidated Operations-Risk
sharing arrangements. In the third quarter of 2008 we sold our remaining interest in Sherman and
recognized a gain of $62.8 million. See the Risk Factor titled Because our policyholders position
could decline and our risk-to-capital could increase beyond the levels necessary to meet regulatory
requirements we are considering options to obtain additional capital.
Debt at Our Holding Company
For information about debt at our holding company, see Notes 2 and 3 of the Notes to the
Consolidated Financial Statements contained elsewhere in this Form 10-Q. You should review
OverviewOutlook in this Managements Discussion in connection with such Notes.
Holding Company Capital Resources
The credit facility, senior notes and convertible debentures are obligations of MGIC
Investment Corporation and not of its subsidiaries. We are a holding company and the payment of
dividends from our insurance subsidiaries, which historically has been the principal source of our
holding company cash inflow, is restricted by insurance regulation. MGIC is the principal source of
dividend-paying capacity. During 2008, MGIC paid three quarterly dividends of $15 million each to
our holding company, which increased the cash resources of our holding company. As has been the
case for the past several years, as a result of extraordinary dividends paid, MGIC cannot currently
pay any dividends without regulatory
approval. In light of the matters discussed under OverviewOutlook, we do not anticipate
seeking approval for any additional dividends from MGIC that would
increase our holding companys cash resources.
49
As of October 31, 2008, we had a total of approximately $391 million in short-term investments
at our holding company. Our use of funds at the holding company includes interest payments on our
Senior Notes, credit facility and junior convertible debentures. In October 2008 we eliminated the
dividend on our common stock. On an annual basis, in aggregate, these uses total approximately $72
million, based on the current rate in effect on our credit facility and assuming a full year of
interest on the entire $390 million of debentures.
Risk-to-Capital
We consider our risk-to-capital ratio an important indicator of our financial strength and our
ability to write new business. This ratio is computed on a statutory basis for our combined
insurance operations and is our net risk in force divided by our policyholders position.
Policyholders position consists primarily of statutory policyholders surplus (which increases as
a result of statutory net income and decreases as a result of statutory net loss and dividends
paid), plus the statutory contingency reserve. The statutory contingency reserve is reported as a
liability on the statutory balance sheet. A mortgage insurance company is required to make annual
contributions to the contingency reserve of approximately 50% of net earned premiums. These
contributions must generally be maintained for a period of ten years. However, with regulatory
approval a mortgage insurance company may make early withdrawals from the contingency reserve when
incurred losses exceed 35% of net earned premium in a calendar year.
The premium deficiency reserve discussed under Results of Operations Losses Premium
deficiency above is not recorded as a liability on the statutory balance sheet and is not a
component of statutory net income. The present value of expected future premiums and already
established loss reserves and statutory contingency reserves, exceeds the present value of expected
future losses and expenses, so no deficiency is recorded on a statutory basis.
Our combined insurance companies risk-to-capital calculation appears in the table below.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
|
December 31, |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
($ in millions) |
|
Risk in force net of reinsurance |
|
$ |
60,524 |
|
|
$ |
57,527 |
|
|
|
Statutory policyholders surplus |
|
$ |
1,528 |
|
|
$ |
1,351 |
|
Statutory contingency reserve |
|
|
2,811 |
|
|
|
3,464 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Statutory policyholders position |
|
$ |
4,339 |
|
|
$ |
4,815 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk-to-capital: |
|
|
13.9:1 |
|
|
|
11.9:1 |
|
Statutory policyholders surplus is reduced for loss reserves established for known
delinquencies. Risk in force net of reinsurance includes approximately $7.0 billion
of delinquent risk in force that has existing loss reserves established.
50
The increase in risk-to-capital during the first nine months of 2008 is the result of an
increase in net risk in force as well as a decrease in statutory policyholders position. Our net
risk in force increased as a result of new business written. Statutory policyholders position
decreased during the first nine months of 2008, primarily due to losses incurred, offset by a
capital contribution to our subsidiary, MGIC, from the proceeds raised by the sale of our common
stock and the convertible debentures. If our insurance in force continues to grow, our risk in
force would also grow. To the extent our statutory policyholders position does not increase at the
same rate as our growth in risk in force, our risk-to-capital ratio will increase. Similarly, if
our statutory policyholders position decreases at a greater rate than our risk in force, then our
risk-to-capital ratio will increase.
We expect that our risk-to-capital ratio will increase above its level at September 30, 2008.
See further discussion under Managements Discussion and Analysis-Overview-Outlook above as well
as our Risk Factor titled Because our policyholders position could decline and our risk-to-capital
could increase beyond the levels necessary to meet regulatory requirements we are considering
options to obtain additional capital in Item 1A.
Financial Strength Ratings
Standard & Poors Rating Services insurer financial strength rating of MGIC, our principal
mortgage insurance subsidiary, is A with a negative outlook. The financial strength of MGIC is
rated A1 by Moodys Investors Service and is currently under review. The financial strength of
MGIC is rated A- by Fitch Ratings with a negative outlook.
For further information about the importance of MGICs ratings, see our Risk Factor titled
Our financial strength rating has been downgraded below Aa3/AA-, which could reduce the volume of
our new business writings in Item 1A.
Contractual Obligations
At September 30, 2008, the approximate future payments under our contractual obligations
of the type described in the table below are as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Less than |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
More than |
|
Contractual Obligations ($ millions): |
|
Total |
|
|
1 year |
|
|
1-3 years |
|
|
3-5 years |
|
|
5 years |
|
Long-term debt obligations |
|
$ |
3,166 |
|
|
$ |
72 |
|
|
$ |
530 |
|
|
$ |
102 |
|
|
$ |
2,462 |
|
Operating lease obligations |
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Purchase obligations |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pension, SERP and other post-retirement
benefit plans |
|
|
131 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
22 |
|
|
|
87 |
|
Other long-term liabilities |
|
|
4,013 |
|
|
|
2,207 |
|
|
|
1,726 |
|
|
|
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
$ |
7,330 |
|
|
$ |
2,292 |
|
|
$ |
2,282 |
|
|
$ |
207 |
|
|
$ |
2,549 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
51
Our long-term debt obligations at September 30, 2008 include our $300 million of 5.375%
Senior Notes due in November 2015, $200 million of 5.625% Senior Notes due in September 2011, $200
million outstanding under a credit facility expiring in March 2010 and $390 million in convertible
debentures due in 2063, including related interest, as discussed in Note 2. Short- and long-term
debt and Note 3. Convertible debentures and related derivative to our consolidated financial
statements and under Liquidity and Capital Resources above. For discussions related to our debt
covenants see -Liquidity and Capital Resources and our Risk Factor titled The amounts that we owe under our revolving credit facility and
Senior Notes could be accelerated. Our operating lease obligations
include operating leases on certain office space, data processing equipment and autos, as discussed
in Note 12 to our consolidated financial statements in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year
ended December 31, 2007. See Note 9 to our consolidated financial statement in our Annual Report on
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 for discussion of expected benefit payments under
our benefit plans.
Our other long-term liabilities represent the loss reserves established to recognize the
liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses related to defaults on insured mortgage loans.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant
judgment by management. The future loss payment periods are estimated based on historical
experience, and could emerge significantly different than this estimate. See Note 6. Loss
reserves to our consolidated financial statements and -Critical Accounting Policies, both in our
Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007. In accordance with GAAP for the
mortgage insurance industry, we establish loss reserves only for loans in default. Because our
reserving method does not take account of the impact of future losses that could occur from loans
that are not delinquent, our obligation for ultimate losses that we expect to occur under our
policies in force at any period end is not reflected in our financial statements or in the table
above.
The table above does not reflect the liability for unrecognized tax benefits due to
uncertainties in the timing of the effective settlement of tax positions. We can not make a
reasonably reliable estimate of the timing of payment for the liability for unrecognized tax
benefits, net of payments on account, of $19.3 million. See Note 10 to our consolidated financial
statement in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 for additional
discussion on unrecognized tax benefits.
Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors
General: Our revenues and losses could be affected by the risk factors referred to under
Location of Risk Factors below. These risk factors are an integral part of Managements
Discussion and Analysis.
These factors may also cause actual results to differ materially from the results contemplated
by forward looking statements that we may make. Forward looking statements consist of statements
which relate to matters other than historical fact. Among others, statements that include words
such as we believe, anticipate or expect, or words of similar import, are forward looking
statements. We are not undertaking any obligation to
update any forward looking statements we may make even though these statements may be affected by
events or circumstances occurring after the forward looking statements were made. Therefore no
reader of this document should rely on these statements being accurate
52
as of any time other than
the time at which this document was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Location of Risk Factors: The risk factors are in Item 1 A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K
for the year ended December 31, 2007, as supplemented by Part II, Item 1 A of our Quarterly Report
on Form 10-Q for the Quarters Ended March 31, 2008 and June 30, 2008 and in Part II, Item 1 A of
this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. The risk factors in the 10-K, as supplemented by those 10-Qs
and through updating of various statistical and other information, are reproduced in Exhibit 99 to
this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
At September 30, 2008, the derivative financial instruments in our investment portfolio were
immaterial. We place our investments in instruments that meet high credit quality standards, as
specified in our investment policy guidelines; the policy also limits the amount of credit exposure
to any one issue, issuer and type of instrument. At September 30, 2008, the modified duration of
our fixed income investment portfolio was 4.6 years, which means that an instantaneous parallel
shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points would result in a change of 4.6% in the market value
of our fixed income portfolio. For an upward shift in the yield curve, the market value of our
portfolio would decrease and for a downward shift in the yield curve, the market value would
increase.
The interest rate on our $300 million credit facility is variable and is based on, at our
option, LIBOR plus a margin that varies with MGICs financial strength rating or a base rate
specified in the credit agreement. For each 100 basis point change in LIBOR or the base rate, our
interest cost, expressed on an annual basis, would change by 1%. Based on the amount outstanding
under our credit facility as of September 30, 2008, this would result in a change of $2 million.
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES
Our management, with the participation of our principal executive officer and principal
financial officer, has evaluated our disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rule
13a-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended), as of the end of the period
covered by this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Based on such evaluation, our principal executive
officer and principal financial officer concluded that such controls and procedures were effective
as of the end of such period. There was no change in our internal control over financial reporting
that occurred during the third quarter of 2008 that materially affected, or is reasonably likely to
materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.
53
PART II. OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1. Legal Proceedings
On October 28, 2008, a purported stockholder class action lawsuit, Fulton County Employees
Retirement System v. MGIC Investment Corporation, was filed against us, several of our officers and
an officer of Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC in the U.S. District Court for
the Eastern District of Wisconsin. The allegations in the complaint are generally that through the
individuals named in the complaint, we violated the federal securities laws by failing to disclose
or misrepresenting C-BASSs business and our business, including information about our underwriting
and exposure to subprime mortgages and delinquencies. The time period covered by this lawsuit
begins on October 12, 2006 and ends on February 12, 2008. The complaint seeks damages based on
purchases of our stock during this time period at prices that were allegedly inflated as a result
of the purported misstatements and omissions. Four other purported stockholder class action
lawsuits are described in our Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2008. With limited
exceptions, our bylaws provide that our officers are entitled to indemnification from us for claims
against them of the type alleged in the complaints in all of these lawsuits. We believe, among
other things, that the allegations in these complaints are not sufficient to prevent their
dismissal and intend to defend against them vigorously. However, we are unable to predict the
outcome of these cases or estimate our associated expenses or possible losses.
In addition to the above litigation, we face other litigation and regulatory risks. For
additional information about such other litigation and regulatory risks you should review our Risk
Factor titled We are subject to the risk of private litigation and regulatory proceedings.
Item 1 A. Risk Factors
With the exception of the changes described and set forth below, there have been no material
changes in our risk factors from the risk factors disclosed in the Companys Annual Report on Form
10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 as supplemented by Part II, Item 1 A of our Quarterly
Report on Form 10-Q for the Quarters Ended March 31, 2008 and June 30, 2008. The risk factors in
the 10-K, as supplemented by these 10-Qs and through updating of various statistical and other
information, are reproduced in their entirety in Exhibit 99 to this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
As a result of the sale of our remaining interest in Sherman, we have eliminated the risk
factor titled Our income from our Sherman joint venture could be adversely affected by
uncertain economic factors impacting the consumer sector and by lenders reducing the availability
of credit or increasing its cost that was included in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for
the Quarter Ended June 30, 2008.
The
following risk factors were added or changed since the filing of our
Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the Quarter ended June 30, 2008:
Because our policyholders position could decline and our risk-to-capital could increase beyond the
levels necessary to meet regulatory requirements we are considering options to obtain additional
capital.
54
The Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of Wisconsin is our principal insurance regulator. To
assess a mortgage guaranty insurers capital adequacy, Wisconsins insurance regulations require
that a mortgage guaranty insurance company maintain policyholders position of not less than a
minimum computed under a formula. If a mortgage guaranty insurer does not meet the minimum required
by the formula it cannot write new business until its policyholders position meets the minimum.
Some other states that regulate our mortgage guaranty insurance companies have similar regulations.
Some states that regulate us have provisions that limit the risk-to-capital ratio of a mortgage
guaranty insurance company to 25:1. If an insurance companys risk-to-capital ratio exceeds the
limit applicable in a state, it may be prohibited from writing new business in that state until its
risk-to-capital ratio falls below the limit.
We believe the mortgage insurance industry will experience material losses on the 2006 and 2007
books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on the direction of home prices in
California, Florida and other distressed markets, which in turn will be influenced by general
economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or general
economic conditions with confidence, we cannot predict with confidence what our ultimate losses
will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these books will
continue to generate material incurred and paid losses for a number of years. Our view of potential
losses on these books has trended upward since the first quarter of 2008, including since the time
at which we finalized our Form 10-Q for the second quarter of this year. If recent loss trends
continue, MGICs policyholders position could decline and its risk-to-capital could increase beyond
the levels necessary to meet these regulatory requirements and this could occur before the end of
2009. As a result, we are considering options to obtain additional capital, which could occur
through the sale of equity or debt securities and/or reinsurance. We cannot predict whether we will
be successful in raising additional capital from any source but any sale of additional securities
could dilute substantially the interest of existing shareholders.
A downturn in the domestic economy or a decline in the value of borrowers homes from their value
at the time their loans closed may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing.
Losses result from events that reduce a borrowers ability to continue to make mortgage payments,
such as unemployment, and whether the home of a borrower who defaults on his mortgage can be sold
for an amount that will cover unpaid principal and interest and the expenses of the sale. In
general, favorable economic conditions reduce the likelihood that borrowers will lack sufficient
income to pay their mortgages and also favorably affect the value of homes, thereby reducing and in
some cases even eliminating a loss from a mortgage default. A deterioration in economic conditions
generally increases the likelihood that borrowers will not have sufficient income to pay their
mortgages and can also adversely affect housing values, which in turn can influence the willingness
of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage payments to do so when the mortgage balance
exceeds the value of the home. Housing values may decline even absent a deterioration in economic
conditions due to declines in demand for homes, which in turn may result from changes in buyers
perceptions of the potential for future appreciation, restrictions on mortgage credit due to more
stringent underwriting standards, liquidity issues affecting lenders or other factors. The
residential mortgage market in the United States has for some time experienced a variety of
worsening economic conditions and housing values in many areas
continue to decline. The
55
credit crisis that began in September 2008 may result in further deterioration in economic
conditions and home values.
The mix of business we write also affects the likelihood of losses occurring.
Even when housing values are stable or rising, certain types of mortgages have higher probabilities
of claims. These segments include loans with loan-to-value ratios over 95% (including loans with
100% loan-to-value ratios or in certain markets that have experienced declining housing values,
over 90%), FICO credit scores below 620, limited underwriting, including limited borrower
documentation, or total debt-to-income ratios of 38% or higher, as well as loans having
combinations of higher risk factors. As of September 30, 2008, approximately 59.5% of our primary
risk in force consisted of loans with loan-to-value ratios equal to or greater than 95%, 9.6% had
FICO credit scores below 620, and 14.0% had limited underwriting, including limited borrower
documentation. (In accordance with industry practice, loans approved by Government Sponsored
Entities and other automated underwriting systems under doc waiver programs that do not require
verification of borrower income are classified by us as full documentation. For additional
information about such loans, see footnote (3) to the delinquency table under Managements
Discussion and Analysis-Results of Consolidated Operation-Losses-Losses Incurred.)
A material portion of these loans were written in 2005 2007 and through the first quarter of
2008. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 we made a series of changes to our underwriting
guidelines in an effort to improve the risk profile of the business we are writing, including
guideline changes that have not yet become effective. Requirements imposed by new guidelines,
however, only affect business written under commitments to insure loans that are issued after those
guidelines become effective. Business for which commitments are issued after new guidelines are
announced and before they become effective is insured by us in accordance with the guidelines in
effect at time of the commitment even if that business would not meet the new guidelines. For
commitments we issue for loans that close and are insured by us, a period longer than a calendar
quarter can elapse between the time we issue a commitment to insure a loan and the time we receive
the payment of the first premium and report the loan in our risk in force, although this period is
generally shorter.
As of September 30, 2008, approximately 3.8% of our primary risk in force written through the flow
channel, and 46.2% of our primary risk in force written through the bulk channel, consisted of
adjustable rate mortgages in which the initial interest rate may be adjusted during the five years
after the mortgage closing (ARMs). We classify as fixed rate loans adjustable rate mortgages in
which the initial interest rate is fixed during the five years after the mortgage closing. We
believe that when the reset interest rate significantly exceeds the interest rate at loan
origination, claims on ARMs would be substantially higher than for fixed rate loans. Moreover, even
if interest rates remain unchanged, claims on ARMs with a teaser rate (an initial interest rate
that does not fully reflect the index which determines subsequent rates) may also be substantially
higher because of the increase in the mortgage payment that will occur when the fully indexed rate
becomes effective. In addition, we believe the volume of interest-only loans, which may also be
ARMs, and loans with negative amortization features, such as pay option ARMs, increased in 2005 and
2006 and remained at these levels during the first half of 2007, before beginning to decline in the
second half of 2007. Because interest-only loans and pay option ARMs are a relatively recent
development, we have no meaningful data on their historical performance. We believe claim rates on
certain of these loans will be substantially higher than on loans without scheduled payment
increases that are made to borrowers of comparable credit quality.
56
Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our underwriting and
pricing models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment
income will prove adequate to compensate for actual losses even under our current underwriting
guidelines. We do, however, believe that given the various changes in our underwriting guidelines
that are effective in 2008, our 2008 book will generate underwriting profit.
Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties and based on assumptions that are
currently very volatile, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.
We establish reserves using estimated claim rates and claim amounts in estimating the ultimate
loss. The estimated claim rates and claim amounts represent what we believe best reflect the
estimate of what will actually be paid on the loans in default as of the reserve date.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires judgment by
management. Current conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make the assumptions that we
use to establish loss reserves more volatile than they would otherwise be. The actual amount of
the claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates
could be adversely affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national
economic conditions leading to a reduction in borrowers income and thus their ability to make
mortgage payments, and a drop in housing values that could materially reduce our ability to
mitigate potential loss through property acquisition and resale or expose us to greater loss on
resale of properties obtained through the claim settlement process. Changes to our estimates could
result in material impact to our results of operations, even in a stable economic environment, and
there can be no assurance that actual claims paid by us will not be substantially different than
our loss reserves.
The premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liabilities for losses and as a
result any inadequacy could materially affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We set premiums at the time a policy is issued based on our expectations regarding likely
performance over the long-term. Generally, we cannot cancel the mortgage insurance coverage or
adjust renewal premiums during the life of a mortgage insurance policy. As a result, higher than
anticipated claims generally cannot be offset by premium increases on policies in force or
mitigated by our non-renewal or cancellation of insurance coverage. The premiums we charge, and the
associated investment income, may not be adequate to compensate us for the risks and costs
associated with the insurance coverage provided to customers. An increase in the number or size of
claims, compared to what we anticipate, could adversely affect our results of operations or
financial condition.
On January 22, 2008, we announced that we had decided to stop writing the portion of our bulk
business that insures loans which are included in Wall Street securitizations because the
performance of loans included in such securitizations deteriorated materially in the fourth quarter
of 2007 and this deterioration was materially worse than we experienced for loans insured through
the flow channel or loans insured through the remainder of our bulk channel. On February 13, 2008,
we announced that we had established a premium deficiency reserve of approximately $1.2 billion. As
of September 30, 2008, the premium deficiency reserve was
57
$584 million. This amount is the present value of expected future losses and expenses that
exceeded the present value of expected future premium and already established loss reserves on
these bulk transactions.
We believe the mortgage insurance industry will experience material losses on the 2006 and 2007
books. The ultimate amount of these losses will depend in part on the direction of home prices in
California, Florida and other distressed markets, which in turn will be influenced by general
economic conditions and other factors. Because we cannot predict future home prices or general
economic conditions with confidence, we cannot predict with confidence what our ultimate losses
will be on our 2006 and 2007 books. Our current expectation, however, is that these books will
continue to generate material incurred and paid losses for a number of years. Our view of potential
losses on these books has trended upward since the first quarter of 2008, including since the time
at which we finalized our Form 10-Q for the second quarter of this year. There can be no assurance
that additional premium deficiency reserves on Wall Street Bulk or on other portions of our
insurance portfolio will not be required.
Changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reduce our revenues or
increase our losses.
The majority of our insurance written through the flow channel is for loans sold to Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, each of which is a government sponsored entity, or GSE. As a result, the business
practices of the GSEs affect the entire relationship between them and mortgage insurers and
include:
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the level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of Fannie
Mae and Freddie Macs charters, when private mortgage insurance is used as the required
credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages, |
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whether Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac influence the mortgage lenders selection of the
mortgage insurer providing coverage and, if so, any transactions that are related to that
selection, |
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the underwriting standards that determine what loans are eligible for purchase by
Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which thereby affect the quality of the risk insured by the
mortgage insurer and the availability of mortgage loans, |
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the terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the
cancellation thresholds established by law, and |
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the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must perform activities intended to avoid
or mitigate loss on insured mortgages that are delinquent. |
In September 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) was appointed as the conservator of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As their conservator, FHFA controls and directs the operations of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The appointment of FHFA as conservator or our industrys inability,
due to capital constraints, to write sufficient business to meet the needs of Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac may increase the likelihood that the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
change in ways that may have a material adverse effect on us. In
addition, these factors may increase the likelihood that the charters of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are changed
by new federal
legislation. Such changes may
58
allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce or eliminate the level of
private mortgage insurance coverage that they use as credit enhancement.
In addition, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have policies which provide guidelines on terms under
which they can conduct business with mortgage insurers with financial strength ratings below
Aa3/AA-. For information about how these policies could affect us, see the risk factor titled Our
financial strength rating has been downgraded below Aa3/AA-, which could reduce the volume of our
new business writings.
The amounts that we owe under our revolving credit facility and Senior Notes could be accelerated.
We have a $300 million bank revolving credit facility that matures in March 2010, under which $200
million is currently outstanding, $200 million of Senior Notes due in September 2011 and $300
million of Senior Notes due in November 2015.
Our revolving credit facility includes three financial covenants. First, it requires that we
maintain Consolidated Net Worth of no less than $2.00 billion at all times. However, if as of
June 30, 2009, our Consolidated Net Worth equals or exceeds $2.75 billion, then the minimum
Consolidated Net Worth under the facility will be increased to $2.25 billion at all times from and
after June 30, 2009. Consolidated Net Worth is generally defined in our credit agreement as the
sum of our consolidated stockholders equity (determined in accordance with GAAP) plus the
aggregate outstanding principal amount of our 9% Convertible Junior Subordinated Debentures due
2063. The current aggregate outstanding principal amount of our 9% Convertible Junior Subordinated
Debentures due 2063 is $390 million.
At September 30, 2008, our Consolidated Net Worth was approximately $3.0 billion. We expect we
will have a net loss in the remainder of 2008, with the result that we expect our Consolidated Net
Worth to decline. Our current forecast of our 2008 net loss would result in our forecasted
Consolidated Net Worth at December 31, 2008 being materially above the $2.0 billion minimum. There
can be no assurance that our actual results will not be materially worse than our forecast or that
losses in periods after 2008 will not reduce our Consolidated Net Worth below the minimum amount
required.
In addition, regardless of our results of operations, our Consolidated Net Worth would be reduced
to the extent the carrying value of our investment portfolio declines from its carrying value at
September 30, 2008 due to market value adjustments and to the extent we pay dividends to our
shareholders. At September 30, 2008, the modified duration of our fixed income portfolio was
4.6 years, which means that an instantaneous parallel upward shift in the yield curve of 100 basis
points would result in a decline of 4.6% (approximately $344 million) in the market value of this
portfolio. Market value adjustments could also occur as a result of changes in credit spreads.
The other two financial covenants require that MGICs risk-to-capital ratio not exceed 22:1 and
that MGIC maintain policyholders position of not less than the amount required by Wisconsin
insurance regulations. We discuss MGICs risk-to-capital ratio and its policyholders position in
the risk factor titled Because our policyholders position could decline and our risk-to-capital
could increase beyond the levels necessary to meet regulatory requirements we are exploring options
to obtain additional capital.
59
Covenants in the Senior Notes include the requirement that there be no liens on the stock of the
designated subsidiaries unless the Senior Notes are equally and ratably secured; that there be no
disposition of the stock of designated subsidiaries unless all of the stock is disposed of for
consideration equal to the fair market value of the stock; and that we and the designated
subsidiaries preserve their corporate existence, rights and franchises unless we or such subsidiary
determines that such preservation is no longer necessary in the conduct of its business and that
the loss thereof is not disadvantageous to the Senior Notes. A designated subsidiary is any of our
consolidated subsidiaries which has shareholders equity of at least 15% of our consolidated
shareholders equity.
We currently have sufficient liquidity at our holding company to repay the amounts owed under our
revolving credit facility. If (i) we fail to maintain any of the requirements under the credit facility discussed
above, (ii) we fail to make a payment of principal when due under the credit facility or a payment
of interest within five days after due under the credit facility, (iii)
we fail to make an interest payment when due under either series of
our Senior Notes or (iv)
our payment obligations
under our Senior Notes are declared due and payable (including for one of the reasons noted in the
following paragraph) and we are not successful in obtaining an agreement from banks holding a
majority of the debt outstanding under the facility to change (or waive) the applicable
requirement, then banks holding a majority of the debt outstanding under the facility would have
the right to declare the entire amount of the outstanding debt due and payable.
If (i) we fail to meet any of the covenants of the Senior Notes discussed above, (ii) we fail to
make a payment of principal of the Senior Notes when due or a payment of interest on the Senior
Notes within thirty days after due or (iii) the debt under our bank facility is declared due and
payable (including for one of the reasons noted in the previous paragraph) and we are not
successful in obtaining an agreement from holders of a majority of the applicable series of Senior
Notes to change (or waive) the applicable requirement or payment default, then the holders of 25%
or more of either series of our Senior Notes each would have the right to accelerate the maturity
of that debt. In addition, the Trustee of these two issues of Senior Notes, which is also a lender
under our bank credit facility, could, independent of any action by holders of Senior Notes,
accelerate the maturity of the Senior Notes.
In the event the amounts owing under our credit facility or Senior Notes are accelerated, we may
not have sufficient funds to repay such amounts.
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select
alternatives to private mortgage insurance.
These alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:
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lenders using government mortgage insurance programs, including those of the Federal
Housing Administration and the Veterans Administration, |
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lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring, |
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investors using credit enhancements other than private mortgage insurance, using other
credit enhancements in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance
coverage, or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement, and |
60
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lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage
insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a second mortgage
with a 10%, 15% or 20% loan-to- value ratio (referred to as 80-10-10, 80-15-5 or 80-20
loans, respectively) rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% loan-to-value
ratio that has private mortgage insurance. |
We believe the Federal Housing Administration, which in recent years was not viewed by us as a
significant competitor, has substantially increased its market share in 2008, including insuring a
number of loans that would meet our current underwriting guidelines at a cost to the borrower that
is lower than the cost of our insurance.
Our financial strength rating has been downgraded below Aa3/AA-, which could reduce the volume of
our new business writings.
Standard & Poors Rating Services insurer financial strength rating of MGIC, our principal
mortgage insurance subsidiary, is A with a negative outlook. The financial strength of MGIC is
rated A1 by Moodys Investors Service and is under review for a potential downgrade. The financial
strength of MGIC is rated A- by Fitch Ratings with a negative outlook.
The private mortgage insurance industry has historically viewed a financial strength rating of at
least Aa3/AA- as critical to writing new business. In part this view has resulted from the mortgage
insurer eligibility requirements of the GSEs, which each year purchase the majority of loans
insured by us and the rest of the private mortgage insurance industry. The eligibility requirements
define the standards under which the GSEs will accept mortgage insurance as a credit enhancement on
mortgages they acquire. These standards impose additional restrictions on insurers that do not have
a financial strength rating of at least Aa3/AA-. These restrictions include not permitting such
insurers to engage in captive reinsurance transactions with lenders. For many years, captive
reinsurance has been an important means through which mortgage insurers compete for business from
lenders, including lenders who sell a large volume of mortgages to the GSEs. In February 2008
Freddie Mac announced that it was temporarily suspending the portion of its eligibility
requirements that impose additional restrictions on a mortgage insurer that is downgraded below
Aa3/AA- if the affected insurer commits to submitting a complete remediation plan for its approval.
In February 2008 Fannie Mae advised us that it would not automatically impose additional
restrictions on a mortgage insurer that is downgraded below Aa3/AA- if the affected insurer submits
a written remediation plan.
We have submitted written remediation plans to both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Freddie Mac has
publicly announced that our remediation plan is acceptable to it. We believe that Fannie Mae views
its process of reviewing remediation plans as a process that should continue until the party
submitting the remediation plan has regained a rating of at least Aa3/AA-. Our remediation plans
include projections of our future financial performance. There can be no assurance that we will be
able to successfully complete our remediation plans. In addition, there can be no assurance that
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will continue the positions described above with respect to mortgage
insurers that have been downgraded below Aa3/AA-.
Apart from the effect of the eligibility requirements of the GSEs, we believe lenders who hold
mortgages in portfolio and choose to obtain mortgage insurance on the loans assess a mortgage
insurers financial strength rating as one element of the process through which they
61
select mortgage insurers. As a result of these considerations, including MGICs recent ratings
downgrades, MGIC may be competitively disadvantaged.
Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues or
increase our losses.
Competition for private mortgage insurance premiums occurs not only among private mortgage insurers
but also with mortgage lenders through captive mortgage reinsurance transactions. In these
transactions, a lenders affiliate reinsures a portion of the insurance written by a private
mortgage insurer on mortgages originated or serviced by the lender. As discussed under - We are
subject to risk from private litigation and regulatory proceedings below, we provided information
to the New York Insurance Department and the Minnesota Department of Commerce about captive
mortgage reinsurance arrangements and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, commonly
referred to as HUD, has recently issued a subpoena covering similar information. Other insurance
departments or other officials, including attorneys general, may also seek information about or
investigate captive mortgage reinsurance.
In recent years, the level of competition within the private mortgage insurance industry has been
intense as many large mortgage lenders reduced the number of private mortgage insurers with whom
they do business. At the same time, consolidation among mortgage lenders has increased the share of
the mortgage lending market held by large lenders. Our private mortgage insurance competitors
include:
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PMI Mortgage Insurance Company, |
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Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation, |
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United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company, |
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Radian Guaranty Inc., |
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Republic Mortgage Insurance Company, whose parent, based on information filed with the
SEC through November 1, 2008, is our largest shareholder, and |
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CMG Mortgage Insurance Company. |
Our relationships with our customers could be adversely affected by a variety of factors, including
continued tightening of our underwriting guidelines, which have resulted in our declining to insure
some of the loans originated by our customers, and our announcement that we plan to discontinue
ceding new business under excess of loss reinsurance programs. We believe the Federal Housing
Administration, which in recent years was not viewed by us as a significant competitor, has
substantially increased its market share in 2008, including insuring a number of loans that would
meet our current underwriting guidelines at a cost to the borrower that is lower than the cost of
our insurance.
While the mortgage insurance industry has not had new entrants in many years, it is possible that
the perceived increase in credit quality of loans that are being
insured today
combined with the deterioration of the financial strength ratings of
the existing mortgage insurance companies could encourage the formation of start-up mortgage
insurers.
62
If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that
we write could decline, which would reduce our revenues.
The factors that affect the volume of low-down-payment mortgage originations include:
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restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards and
liquidity issues affecting lenders, |
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the level of home mortgage interest rates, |
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the health of the domestic economy as well as conditions in regional and local
economies, |
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housing affordability, |
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population trends, including the rate of household formation, |
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the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect
whether refinance loans have loan-to-value ratios that require private mortgage insurance,
and |
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government housing policy encouraging loans to first-time homebuyers. |
We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. A recent trend
in the mortgage lending and mortgage loan servicing industry has been towards consolidation of loan
servicers. This reduction in the number of servicers could lead to disruptions in the servicing of
mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. In addition, current housing market trends have
led to significant increases in the number of delinquent mortgage loans requiring servicing. These
increases have strained the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to undertake mitigation
efforts that could help limit our losses. Future housing market conditions could lead to additional
such increases. Managing a substantially higher volume of non-performing loans could lead to
disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. Disruptions in
servicing, in turn, could contribute to a rise in delinquencies among those loans and could have a
material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and operating results.
63
ITEM 6. EXHIBITS
The accompanying Index to Exhibits is incorporated by reference in answer to this portion of
this Item, and except as otherwise indicated in the next sentence, the Exhibits listed in such
Index are filed as part of this Form 10-Q. Exhibit 32 is not filed as part of this Form 10-Q but
accompanies this Form 10-Q.
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SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused
this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized, on November
10, 2008.
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MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION |
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\s\ J. Michael Lauer
J. Michael Lauer
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Executive Vice President and
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Chief Financial Officer |
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\s\ Joseph J. Komanecki
Joseph J. Komanecki
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Senior Vice President, Controller and
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Chief Accounting Officer |
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65
INDEX TO EXHIBITS
(Part II, Item 6)
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Exhibit |
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Number |
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Description of Exhibit |
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2.1
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Securities Repurchase Agreement, between Sherman Financial Group LLC and Mortgage Guaranty
Insurance Corporation, dated as of August 13, 2008. [Incorporated by reference to Exhibit 2.1
to the companys Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission
on August 14, 2008] |
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2.2
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Credit Agreement, between Sherman Financial Group LLC and Mortgage Guaranty Insurance
Corporation, dated as of August 13, 2008. [Incorporated by reference to Exhibit 2.1 to the
companys Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on
August 14, 2008] |
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11
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Statement Re Computation of Net Income Per Share |
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31.1
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Certification of CEO under Section 302 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 |
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31.2
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Certification of CFO under Section 302 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 |
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32
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Certification of CEO and CFO under Section 906 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (as indicated in
Item 6 of Part II, this Exhibit is not being filed) |
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99
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Risk Factors included in Item 1 A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
December 31, 2007, as supplemented by Part II, Item 1A of our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q
for the quarters ended March 31, June 30, and September 30, 2008 and through updating of
various statistical and other information |