National Vision’s third quarter results were met with a negative market reaction despite revenue exceeding Wall Street expectations. Management attributed performance to continued momentum in its transformation initiatives, including a sharper focus on higher-value customer segments and a refreshed product assortment. CEO Alex Wilkes highlighted robust growth among managed care customers, progressive lens wearers, and outside prescription shoppers, noting that “all signs are still pointing to a very, very positive response rate to what we're up to.” However, overall store traffic remained flat, with weaker cash pay customer trends offsetting gains elsewhere.
Is now the time to buy EYE? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
National Vision (EYE) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $487.3 million vs analyst estimates of $473.4 million (7.9% year-on-year growth, 3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.13 vs analyst estimates of $0.13 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $41.82 million vs analyst estimates of $42.59 million (8.6% margin, 1.8% miss)
- The company lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $1.98 billion at the midpoint from $1.95 billion, a 1.4% increase
- Management raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $0.67 at the midpoint, a 1.5% increase
- Operating Margin: 2%, up from -2% in the same quarter last year
- Locations: 1,242 at quarter end, up from 1,231 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales rose 7.7% year on year (0.9% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $1.91 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From National Vision’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Michael Lasser (UBS) asked about the signals National Vision uses to avoid negative impacts from merchandising changes and when traffic might inflect upward. CEO Alex Wilkes cited ongoing monitoring of conversion and NPS, and noted positive early results, but stated overall traffic remains flat due to softness in cash pay customers.
- Simeon Gutman (Morgan Stanley) questioned the sustainability of ticket growth and how pricing actions might impact commoditized categories like contact lenses. Wilkes explained that ticket growth is driven by a mix of pricing, assortment, and customer mix, with future details to be shared at Investor Day.
- Robert Ohmes (Bank of America) inquired about market share trends and the outlook for the cash pay segment. Wilkes said the company is gaining share on both volume and dollar basis, and highlighted encouraging signs of cash pay customers trading up to premium products.
- Katharine McShane (Goldman Sachs) asked about new customer acquisition and changes in brand awareness following the campaign relaunch. Wilkes reported strong increases in both unaided awareness and brand consideration, attributing success to targeted marketing efforts.
- Matt Koranda (ROTH Capital) requested more detail on lens pricing actions and their impact on managed care customers. Wilkes described a move toward more nuanced, plan-aware pricing, particularly on coatings and lens materials, and emphasized ongoing evolution in pricing strategy.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our team will watch (1) the impact of new pricing actions on customer retention and average ticket size, (2) the effectiveness of digital selling tools and CRM-driven marketing in boosting conversion and reactivation rates, and (3) the traction of premium product offerings and remote exam expansion. Execution in these areas will signal whether National Vision can sustain its transformation momentum.
National Vision currently trades at $23.66, down from $25.63 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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