NCR Atleos faced a challenging third quarter as its revenue exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, yet the company missed profit forecasts by a significant margin. Management pointed to strong hardware sales and a surge in ATM-as-a-Service contracts as key drivers, but noted that elevated tariffs and a decline in U.S. payroll card transactions pressured profitability. CEO Tim Oliver described the quarter as “exceptional from a strategic and competitive perspective,” but acknowledged that macroeconomic headwinds and shifting transaction patterns continue to influence results.

Is now the time to buy NATL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From NCR Atleos’s Q3 Earnings Call

• Keen Fai Tong (Goldman Sachs) asked about stabilization in U.S. payroll card transactions. CEO Tim Oliver replied that volumes had stopped declining and should support a network business recovery in the fourth quarter.
• Keen Fai Tong (Goldman Sachs) also inquired about tariff impacts. Oliver explained the company had mitigated some effects this year and is budgeting for a mid-20% rate in 2026, hoping for a reduction below current levels.
• Matt Summerville (D.A. Davidson) sought clarity on the transactional mix and profitability within the network segment. COO Stuart MacKinnon explained that withdrawal transactions still comprise the majority of revenue, but growth in high-margin deposit transactions is helping offset declines.
• Matt Summerville (D.A. Davidson) followed up on ATM-as-a-Service backlog and growth. Oliver forecasted another year of approximately 40% growth, noting that backlog quality and margins remain strong.
• Dominick Gabriele (Compass Point) questioned the impact of recycler hardware sales on future service revenue. Oliver emphasized that each hardware deployment typically secures 5-7 years of recurring service and software income, multiplying the long-term value of hardware wins.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analysts will closely watch (1) the pace of ATM-as-a-Service adoption and recurring revenue growth, (2) stabilization and potential recovery in U.S. payroll card and network transactions, and (3) any developments in tariff regulations that could impact cost structure and margins. Execution on service expansion, AI-driven productivity gains, and hardware backlog conversion will also serve as key indicators of NCR Atleos’s ability to sustain profitable growth.

NCR Atleos currently trades at $35.82, down from $37.89 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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