Tucker Carlson: Despite Biden's unpopularity, Democrats still have a chance of holding Congress in November

For all the bad things going on, there are, on the other side, Joe Biden's approval ratings, which are a nonstop source of joy for us. And if you've seen them recently, you know in your heart exactly how the November elections are going to turn out. Biden's obviously been a disaster for the country, but not only has he made the U.S. poorer, weaker and much more ridiculous, people know that he has, and they tell pollsters about it all the time. Biden is the single least popular president in modern American history. 

At this point, absolutely nobody is impressed by Joe Biden and that would be including Dr. Jill. So, this is a big problem for the Biden family, obviously, but a much bigger problem even for the Democratic Party, which Joe Biden leads. Unpopular presidents drag their parties to the bottom in midterm elections. That's the unchanging rule of politics. You saw it famously in 1994 with the Republican takeover of Congress after two disastrous years of Bill Clinton. You saw it in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina. You saw it in 2010 after ObamaCare. You saw it in 2018.

So, there's no question based on precedent that that's about to happen once again in 2022, in November. That's what everybody assumes and in fact, it may well happen. We're certainly praying for it, but as of tonight, we have to be honest with you, the numbers don't show that happening. Not even close. In fact, all the indications we have right now suggest that despite Joe Biden's well-earned unpopularity, the Democratic Party still, again, as of tonight, has a strong chance of holding Congress in November.

The prediction markets, which many believe are more accurate than the polls, overwhelmingly point to the Democrats keeping at least one chamber and maybe strangest of all, as of this week, Democrats are leading Republicans nationally in the so-called generic ballot by about four points. So, if you ask people, "Which party do you like more?" they say Democrats. And maybe that's why Democrats are raising a lot more money, too and not just money from their patrons in big tech, but from small-dollar donors. That's bad.

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In June, Democrats raised $64 million online from 4 million people. That same month, this June, Republicans raised only $26 million online from just over a million donors. From the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, donations to the Republican Party dropped by more than 12%. By contrast, donations to the Democratic Party are up more than 20%. That is not good at all, not simply because you need money to run a political campaign, but because money is, to some extent, a measure of commitment and intensity and you see the same dynamic playing out in individual races across the country.

For example, last quarter, Raphael Warnock, that would be the thoroughly mediocre Democratic senator from Georgia, the guy who was caught on video appearing to commit spousal abuse (Remember that?) that guy raised more than $12 million online. His opponent, Herschel Walker, who everyone likes, raised less than half of that. So far, Raphael Warnock has raised an astounding amount of money. He's hauled in more dollars online than seven Republican senatorial candidates combined: Candidates in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Georgia combined.

Herschel Walker is now trailing Raphael Warnock by ten points and this is happening in a state they tell us went for Joe Biden by a margin of about one-third of a percentage point. That is bizarre. What is going on here? 

It's not just happening in Georgia. According to the official numbers, you'll recall, Joe Biden won the state of Pennsylvania by a little over a single percentage point in 2020. So, it's been two years. Biden has become much less popular since then. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania, which is controlled by the Democratic Party, has become much worse, far more chaotic and dangerous. Here is the scene in the state's largest city on Tuesday.

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REPORTER: Nearly 100 shots fired on 57th Street between Haverford and Westminster tonight. A sea of evidence markers lined this West Philly Street telling of the potentially deadly chaos that unfolded here. Responding officers found four victims on 57th Street. Two shot in the head in critical condition tonight. One victim, we're told, in a BMW, is an innocent bystander caught in gunfire and shot in the shoulder, all while kids and young adults were on a nearby playground.

Over 100 shots right in the middle of the street. It's hard to believe that's an American city. It's hard to believe that's the place where our Constitution was written. It's totally unacceptable, and it wasn't organic. It didn't just happen. This is a result of policies from the Democratic Party. Period. Now, you'd think this being a democracy, that voters would punish anyone who had anything to do with turning Philadelphia into the disaster you just saw and John Fetterman certainly did have a hand in that. He's the sitting lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Fetterman now wants a new job. He's running for the U.S. Senate. He's the candidate. In some ways, John Fetterman is the weakest possible candidate you could run. He has obviously a very public record of failure. He also had a devastating stroke this spring, which is sad, but it affected him. Here he is campaigning for Senate:

JOHN FETTERMAN: You can count on us to eliminate the filibuster. If you come out and step with us, we will be able to stand with you in DC and let's get some stuff done for America. I gave away the lieutenant governor, governor in Pennsylvania, the only lieutenant governor in the history to do that.

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So, this guy is everything you'd think wouldn't work. He's radical, for one thing. "Let's eliminate the filibuster." Oh, good idea, John Fetterman. He's implicated in the destruction of the state that he's still a lieutenant governor of and he's obviously impaired. That's not an attack on him. It's just true. Watch him. So, you'd think there would be no way a guy like that could win a Senate seat, and here's the sad news, however, John Fetterman is winning overwhelmingly. He currently has a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz, Dr. Oz. The National Republican Senatorial Committee just slashed its spending in the state of Pennsylvania by more than $5 million, including their ad buys in the city of Philadelphia. That's a retreat, and it's happening in a state the Republicans ought to be winning.

What is going on here, and why is no one mentioning it? Well, a couple of things are going on, but first, let's hear from Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell is the head Republican in the Senate. He's not there because everyone likes him. McConnell has no close friends. He's loved by no one, but he's considered very smart. He's a master tactician as the dummies who cover politics for Politico and The Washington Post are always telling us. In Washington, people are very much afraid of Mitch McConnell. Cross him and he will hurt you and they listen carefully to his political analysis because that's what he's spent his life doing. That's the only thing he spent his life doing. So, here's what Mitch McConnell says the problem is. Watch.

MITCH MCCONNELL: There's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different. They're statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome. 

So, there's the head Republican in the Senate conceding three months out that Republicans are probably not going to retake the Senate. Why is that? Well, the answer, of course, is in the final line you just heard. Some of the candidates are mediocre. That's Mitch McConnell's excuse and there's some truth in that. Obviously, some of them are mediocre, but compared to what? Mediocre in the Congress. Well, let's see. Dianne Feinstein hasn't spoken a coherent sentence in years, hasn't had trouble getting reelected. Eric Swalwell had sex with a Chinese spy. He's still there. So, mediocre people get elected to office, lots and lots and lots of them do every cycle. So, what McConnell's analysis really is, of course, is buck-passing. Don't blame me. I didn't choose these people. All right, but they're still the nominees.

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So, if you want to save the country and move in a different direction, yes using some mediocre people to do it, what are you going to do? No hint of what you might do for Mitch McConnell other than just accept the inevitable. Now, the truth is, it's entirely possible Mitch McConnell doesn't want to retake the Senate because then you'd have to run things and there's one thing Republican leaders dislike. It's running anything, much easier to complain on Fox News, but if you actually wanted to win, what would you do? Well, here's an idea just kind of out of nowhere. Just spitballing here. How about you run on issues that voters care about? That might work even for a mediocre candidate. 

So, let's say again, just for the sake of argument that you ran a campaign on illegal immigration and crime. Now, these are two issues that didn't just arise out of nowhere. They're the product of policies the Democratic Party put in. They were intentional outcomes. We have millions of people coming in illegally and we have a lot more murders than we had two years ago. These two issues, immigration and crime, don't simply annoy voters, though they very much do. These two issues threaten the existence of our society. So, maybe you should run on them. That seems reasonable, but that's not what they're doing. Oh, no. Here, for example, is a recent campaign ad from Dr. Oz. He's the guy who's losing to the stroke victim in Pennsylvania. Watch.  

DR. OZ: I thought I'd do some grocery shopping. I'm at Wegner's and my wife wants some vegetables for a crudites, right. So, here's the broccoli. That's two bucks, not a ton of broccoli there. There's some asparagus. That's $4. Yep and carrots, that's four more dollars. That's $10 of vegetables there and then we need some guacamole. That's $4 more and she loves salsa. Yes, there is salsa there. $6. Must be a shortage of salsa. Guys, that's $20 for crudités and this doesn't include the tequila. I mean, that's outrageous. Now we got Joe Biden to thank for this. 

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$20 for crudités, whatever that is. It's obviously very easy to make fun of that, but it's not entirely a stupid ad if inflation were the salient issue here, the generational issue of this campaign season, but it's not. Inflation is terrible. It's making people poorer. We actually could tank the U.S. dollar. These are all big, big problems, but changing the population of the United States, allowing people to be murdered in the street, letting drug addicts live on the sidewalk and sending them crack pipes that will change everything forever. These are offenses against the most basic rules of any civilization and the most basic of all is you reward people for doing the right thing and you penalize them for doing the wrong thing. If you start doing the opposite, then everything falls apart and everybody knows that.

So, why not just say it? Why don't you say that? Don't be embarrassed. Just say that. If you live in Texas, for example, supposedly a conservative state, you don't even have police protection anymore. That's how quickly things have changed on the most basic level. That's not some report from a government agency telling you what the inflation rate is. That's your life. You don't have police protection anymore. If there's one reason to run for office, it's to fix things like that. Here's Fox reporter Madison Alworth describing it.

MADISON ALWORTH: In Dallas, they are unable to fill the nearly 600 openings that they have budgeted for. In Atlanta, they have over 400 openings that they cannot fill, even with an up to $4,000 signing bonus.

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PAT LYNCH, PBS PRESIDENT: Police department has been demonized across the country in communities across the country, from coast to coast, it's been demonized. If that police officer in uniform is not on your corner, we are seeing the results. The staffing crisis is creating crime. It's creating violence.

ALWORTH: You take a look at crime across the U.S. and it is way up. Robbery is up nearly 20% in Chicago and Los Angeles and here in New York City, up nearly 40%.

Okay, crudités is 20 bucks. Got it, but that's more important than everything else that's going on right now. Law and Order. You see it on the streets of our cities. You see it at our southern border. It's collapsed. So, if you're a Republican voter and not just a Republican voter, any voter, you probably want to know what is the government going to do about the fact that I can call 911 and no one shows up? What are you going to do about the fact that our border is open to the world and that millions of them have come in illegally? How can you take the country seriously when it doesn't even have a border? And it doesn't, and we know that because on video, every single day people stream in. Fox's Bill Mulligan just caught the whole thing once again on camera. 

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BILL MELUGIN:  Take a look at this video we shot yesterday where we're standing. This is the first time we had ever seen this. The Texas National Guard closed and locked a gate on this property. It's a major crossing area and they blocked the illegal immigrants from being able to come into this property. It's private property. The owner allows the National Guard and Border Patrol to work here, but you can see illegal immigrants started showing up. They weren't let in. They expected to be let in and they were surprised they couldn't get in. Here's what happened, though. Take a look at this video. Border Patrol showed up. A supervisor came with a key, opened up that gate and let all of those illegal immigrants in, symbolic of the way the state of Texas handles things versus the way the federal government handles things.

So, if every Republican candidate just repeated, repeat after me, "law enforcement, law and order is not racist. Law and order is a prerequisite for civilization, and if it goes away, so does the country," you would win the votes not simply of your own voters, but of a lot of other voters and people who have never voted before and any normal Democrat would agree with that because it's inherently true, but is the opposite of what we have. When Ann Coulter saw the video we just played, she noted correctly that it's easier to get into this country as an illegal alien than it is to return as an American citizen back into JFK. By the way, the people you saw are the ones who just want to be caught. They're turning themselves into the bus to your town. There is a lot of people who don't want to be caught, and those people are bringing in fentanyl, which is killing thousands of Americans every month. 

REPORTER: It's been a busy few weeks for U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers in Nogales. At the checkpoint on Saturday, they found 2.5 pounds of black tar heroin, 9 pounds of heroin, 89 pounds of meth, and 320,000 fentanyl pills. Later that day, another huge bust, including more than 40 pounds of drugs and 150,000 fentanyl pills hidden in a car. Border officials say people are becoming more creative in the ways they smuggle items through. In one case, someone tried to hide 10,000 fentanyl pills using a body-shaping garment.

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Everybody knows this is happening. This is not hidden information. These are not the Gnostic gospels. Every American citizen knows exactly what's happening and yet the leader of the Republican Party, Mitch McConnell, will watch footage like that and tell you, no, that most important issue that we face: territorial integrity of Ukraine and in the same breath, they will tell you there is nothing the Republican Party can do to avert historic humiliation in the midterm elections. But the truth, as you well know, is that the people who run the Republican Party don't actually want to do anything about it. 

There are candidates who are talking about the stuff—J.D. Vance in Ohio, Blake Masters in Arizona, Joe Kent in the Pacific Northwest. The leaders of the Republican Party in Washington would rather those guys lose and people like them lose than change the focus of the party to issues that voters actually care about. But the truth is, you can't win elections unless you listen to voters. They're telling you what they want. Republicans have less than three months to figure this very simple riddle out, or it's going to be an actual disaster.