Fox News Poll: Biden and Trump remain deadlocked in Wisconsin

Wisconsin voters split their preference between President Biden and former President Trump in a hypothetical 2-way presidential race — and between backing the Democratic and the Republican congressional candidates in their House district, according to a new Fox News survey of Wisconsin registered voters. 

In the head-to-head presidential matchup, Biden and Trump tie with 48% support each.

Biden gets significant backing from urban voters (+29 points), Whites with a college degree (+26), suburban voters (+10), and union households (+8).

For Trump, some of his highest support is from White evangelical Christians (+46 points), White men without a college degree (+29), and rural voters (+15).

Voters under age 45 back Biden by a single point, while those ages 65 and over go for Biden by 10 points.  

There’s a 17-point gender gap, as men go for Trump by 8 points and women for Biden by 9.

Biden receives a touch more support among Democrats (95%) than Trump gets among Republicans (93%), but Trump is the choice of the small subgroup of independents (by 8 points). 

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When potential third-party candidates are included, Biden tops Trump by 2 points (43-41%), with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. getting 9%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 2% each. In January, it was Trump who was up by 3 points over Biden, with Kennedy at 7%.

Kennedy receives a bit more of his backing from those who favor Trump (9%) in the 2-way ballot than from Biden (5%).

Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by 20,682 votes, less than one percentage point. Trump’s 2016 victory was also by less than a point (22,748 votes).

More voters trust Trump to do a better job handling immigration (by 13 points) and the economy (+9).  Biden is preferred over Trump on abortion (+9), health care (+7), and election integrity (+7). They are rated more evenly on foreign policy (Trump +2) and energy policy (even).

On the Middle East, equal numbers think the Biden administration is too supportive of the Israelis (25%) and the Palestinians (24%). Yet the largest share says Biden’s support of each is about right (38%) — and they favor him over Trump by 38 points.

Overall, Wisconsinites feel somewhat positive about their personal finances, as 6 in 10 say their situation is either holding steady (45%) or improving (14%). Both of those groups largely favor Biden, while the 4 in 10 who are falling behind financially go for Trump by a wide margin.

In the Congressional ballot test, 46% go for the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% for the Republican. Neither Biden nor Trump is a drain on his party, as 94% of those backing the Congressional Democrat favor Biden and 93% of those supporting the Republican go for Trump. 

"Data from the 2022 election suggests MAGA candidates ran three to four points worse than non-MAGA Republicans," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. "But we’re not seeing that ‘Trump tax’ so far in the 2024 numbers. Neither are we seeing Biden underperforming other Democrats. It looks like partisans are behaving like partisans."

By a 5-point margin, more voters think Trump (48%) has the mental soundness to serve effectively as president than Biden (43%). Most Republicans (89%) say Trump has it and most Democrats say Biden does (85%), but independents are 17 points more likely to say Trump is mentally fit.

The survey finds 44% approve of Biden’s job performance and 55% disapprove — unchanged since January (44-56%). His 48% support in the 2-way race is higher than his approval because 10% of those disapproving of the job he’s doing still pick him over Trump.

Nearly two-thirds think Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, and they back him over Trump by 53 points and are twice as likely to approve of the job he’s doing (67% approve, 32% disapprove). Among the one-third who say Biden was not legitimately elected, 98% favor Trump in the 2-way race and 98% disapprove of Biden’s job performance.

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Wisconsin voters are unified when it comes to having a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump. Views of each are net negative by a 10-point margin, as they both receive the same rating: 44% favorable vs 54% unfavorable. 

Kennedy’s ratings are negative by 13 points, 35% favorable vs. 48% unfavorable. He’s viewed much more positively by Republicans (49%) and independents (44%) than Democrats (19%).

Among the small segment of so-called double haters (those viewing both Biden and Trump unfavorably), the vote preference splits: Biden 38% vs. Trump 39% % in the two-way ballot test. When third-party candidates are included, they back Kennedy (34%), followed by Biden (21%), Trump (13%), West (10%), and Stein (9%). 

Conducted April 11-16, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,198 Wisconsin registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (174) and cellphones (669) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (355). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. 

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.