UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D. C. 20549  

 

FORM 10-K  

 

(Mark One)

☒      Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934  

For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015  

OR

 

 

 

 

☐      Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934  

For the transition period from                      to                     .  

 

Commission File Number 1-6028  

 

LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)  

 

 

 

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (484) 583-1400  

 

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

 

 

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act: None

 

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act.  Yes  ☒    No  ☐

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act.  Yes  ☐    No  ☒

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.  Yes  ☒    No  ☐ 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§ 232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files).  Yes  ☒    No  ☐    

Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K (§ 229.405 of this chapter) is not contained herein, and will not be contained, to the best of registrant’s knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K.   ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company.  See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.  Large accelerated filer   ☒    Accelerated filer  ☐Non-accelerated filer  (Do not check if a smaller reporting company)  ☐   Smaller reporting company  ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Act).  Yes  ☐    No  ☒ 

The aggregate market value of the shares of the registrant’s common stock held by non-affiliates (based upon the closing price of these shares on the New York Stock Exchange) as of the last business day of the registrant’s most recently completed second fiscal quarter was $14.8 billion.

As of February 18, 2016, 240,956,843 shares of common stock of the registrant were outstanding.

 

Documents Incorporated by Reference:  

 

Selected portions of the Proxy Statement for the Annual Meeting of Shareholders, scheduled for May 27, 2016, have been incorporated by reference into Part III of this Form 10-K.

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Lincoln National Corporation

 

Table of Contents

 

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PART I

 

The “Business” section and other parts of this Form 10-K contain forward-looking statements that involve inherent risks and uncertainties.  Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs and expectations, and containing words such as “believes,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “expects” or similar words are forward-looking statements.  Our actual results may differ materially from the projected results discussed in the forward-looking statements.  Factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in “Item 1A. Risk Factors” and in the “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” in “Part II – Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” (“MD&A”) of the Form 10-K.  Our consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements (“Notes”) are presented in “Part II – Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.”

 

Item 1.  Business

 

OVERVIEW

 

Lincoln National Corporation (“LNC,” which also may be referred to as “Lincoln,” “we,” “our” or “us”) is a holding company, which operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses through subsidiary companies.  Through our business segments, we sell a wide range of wealth protection, accumulation and retirement income products and solutions.  These products include fixed and indexed annuities, variable annuities, universal life insurance (“UL”), variable universal life insurance (“VUL”), linked-benefit UL, term life insurance, indexed universal life insurance (“IUL”), employer-sponsored retirement plans and services, and group life, disability and dental.  LNC was organized under the laws of the state of Indiana in 1968.  We currently maintain our principal executive offices in Radnor, Pennsylvania.  “Lincoln Financial Group” is the marketing name for LNC and its subsidiary companies.  As of December 31, 2015, LNC had consolidated assets of $251.9 billion and consolidated stockholders’ equity of $13.6 billion.

 

We provide products and services and report results through four segments as follows:

 

 

 

We also have Other Operations, which includes the financial data for operations that are not directly related to the business segments. 

 

The results of Lincoln Financial Network (“LFN”) and Lincoln Financial Distributors (“LFD”), our retail and wholesale distributors, respectively, are included in the segments for which they distribute products.  LFD distributes our individual products and services, retirement plans and corporate-owned UL and VUL (“COLI”) and bank-owned UL and VUL (“BOLI”) products and services.  The distribution occurs primarily through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators (“TPAs”) and other intermediaries.  Group Protection distributes its products and services primarily through employee benefit brokers, TPAs and other employee benefit firms.  As of December 31, 2015, LFD had approximately 620 internal and external wholesalers (including sales managers).  As of December 31, 2015, LFN offered LNC and non-proprietary products and advisory services through a national network of approximately 8,520 active producers who placed business with us within the last 12 months. 

 

Financial information in the tables that follow is presented in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”), unless otherwise indicated.  We provide revenues, income (loss) from operations and assets attributable to each of our business segments and Other Operations in Note 21.  Assets, revenues and earnings attributable to foreign activities were not material in the periods presented.

 

Acquisitions and Dispositions

 

On July 25, 2011, Newton County Loan & Savings, FSB (“NCLS”), our wholly-owned subsidiary, submitted a voluntary plan of dissolution with the Officer of the Comptroller of the Currency (“OCC”).  The OCC approved NCLS’s voluntary dissolution effective November 30, 2011.  

 

On July 16, 2015, we closed on the sale of Lincoln Financial Media Company with Entercom Communications Corp. (“Entercom Parent”) and Entercom Radio, LLC.  We received $75 million in cash, net of transaction expenses, and $28 million face amount of perpetual cumulative convertible preferred stock of Entercom Parent. 

 

For further information about acquisitions and divestitures, see Note 3.

 

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BUSINESS SEGMENTS AND OTHER OPERATIONS

 

ANNUITIES

 

Overview

 

The Annuities segment provides tax-deferred investment growth and lifetime income opportunities for its clients by offering fixed (including indexed) and variable annuities.  The “fixed” and “variable” classifications describe whether we or the contract holders bear the investment risk of the assets supporting the contract.  This also determines the manner in which we earn investment margin profits from these products, either as investment spreads for fixed products or as asset-based fees charged to variable products.

 

Annuities have several features that are attractive to customers.  Annuities are unique in that contract holders can select a variety of payout alternatives to help provide an income flow for life.  Many annuity contracts also include guarantee features (living and death benefits) that are not found in any other investment vehicle and, we believe, make annuities attractive especially in times of economic uncertainty.  In addition, growth on the underlying principal in certain annuities is granted tax-deferred treatment, thereby deferring the tax consequences of the growth in value until withdrawals are made from the accumulation values, often at lower tax rates occurring during retirement.

 

Products

 

In general, an annuity is a contract between an insurance company and an individual or group in which the insurance company, after receipt of one or more premium payments, agrees to pay an amount of money either in one lump sum or on a periodic basis (i.e., annually, semi-annually, quarterly or monthly), beginning on a certain date and continuing for a period of time as specified in the contract or as requested.  Periodic payments can begin within 12 months after the premium is received (referred to as an immediate annuity) or at a future date in time (referred to as a deferred annuity).  This retirement vehicle helps protect an individual from outliving his or her money.

 

Variable Annuities

 

A variable annuity provides the contract holder the ability to direct the investment of premium deposits into one or more variable sub-accounts (“variable funds”) offered through the product (“variable portion”) and, for a specified period, into a fixed account with a guaranteed return (“fixed portion”).  The value of the variable portion of the contract holder’s account varies with the performance of the underlying variable funds chosen by the contract holder. 

 

Our variable funds include the Managed Risk Strategies fund options, a series of funds that embed volatility risk management and, with some funds, capital protection strategies, inside the funds themselves.  These funds, which first started using the risk management strategy in 2011,  seek to reduce equity market volatility risk for both the contract holder and us.  As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, the Managed Risk Strategies funds totaled $32.2 billion and $28.7 billion, or 31% and 28% of total variable annuity account values, respectively.

 

We charge mortality and expense assessments and administrative fees on variable annuity accounts to cover insurance and administrative expenses.  These assessments are built into accumulation unit values, which when multiplied by the number of units owned for any variable fund equals the contract holder’s account value for that variable fund.  In addition, for some contracts, we impose surrender charges, which are typically applicable during the early years of the annuity contract, with a declining level of surrender charges over time.

 

We offer guaranteed benefit riders with certain of our variable annuity products, such as a guaranteed death benefit (“GDB”), a guaranteed withdrawal benefit (“GWB”), a guaranteed income benefit (“GIB”) and a combination of such benefits. 

 

The GDB features offered in 2015 included those where we contractually guarantee to the contract holder that upon death, depending on the particular product, we will return no less than:  the current contract value; the total deposits made to the contract, adjusted to reflect any partial withdrawals; the highest contract value on a specified anniversary date adjusted to reflect any partial withdrawals following the contract anniversary; or the current contract value plus a specified percentage of contract earnings, not to exceed a covered earnings limit.

 

In 2015, we offered product riders including the Lincoln Lifetime IncomeSM Advantage 2.0 (Managed Risk) and Lincoln Market SelectSM Advantage riders, which are hybrid benefit riders combining aspects of GWB and GIB.  These benefit riders allow the contract holder the ability to take income at a maximum rate of up to 5% of the guaranteed amount when they are above the lifetime income age or income through i4LIFE® Advantage with the GIB.  Lincoln Lifetime Income Advantage 2.0 (Managed Risk) and Lincoln Market Select Advantage riders provide higher income if the contract holder delays withdrawals.  Lincoln Lifetime Income Advantage 2.0 (Managed Risks) includes both a 5% enhancement to the guaranteed amount each year a withdrawal is not taken for a specified period of time and an annual step-up of the guaranteed amount to the current contract value, while Lincoln Market Select Advantage only offers an annual step-up of the guaranteed amount to the current contract value.  Contract holders under Lincoln Lifetime Income Advantage 2.0 (Managed Risk) are subject to the allocation of their account value to our Managed Risk Strategies fund options and certain fixed-income options.  Contract holders under Lincoln Market Select Advantage are subject to restrictions on the allocation of their account value within the various investment choices. 

 

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We also offered the i4LIFE® Advantage,  i4LIFE® Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit (Managed Risk) and i4LIFE® Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit riders.  These riders, which are covered by U.S. patents, allow variable annuity contract holders access and control during a portion of the income distribution phase of their contract.  This added flexibility allows the contract holder to access the account value for transfers, additional withdrawals and other service features like portfolio rebalancing.  In general, GIB is an optional feature available with i4LIFE Advantage and a non-optional feature on i4LIFE Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit (Managed Risk) and i4LIFE Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit that guarantees regular income payments will not fall below the greater of a minimum income floor set at benefit issue and 75% of the highest income payment on a specified anniversary date (reduced for any subsequent withdrawals).  Contract holders under i4LIFE Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit (Managed Risk) are subject to the allocation of their account value to our Managed Risk Strategies fund options and certain fixed-income options.  Contract holders under i4LIFE Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit are subject to restrictions on the allocation of their account value within the various investment choices. 

 

We also offered the 4LATER® Advantage (Managed Risk) rider.  This rider provides a minimum income base used to determine the GIB floor when a client begins income payments under i4LIFE Advantage Guaranteed Income Benefit (Managed Risk).  4LATER Advantage (Managed Risk) rider provides growth during the accumulation phase through both a 5% enhancement to the income base each year a withdrawal is not taken for a specified period of time and an annual step-up of the income base to the current contract value.  Contract holders under the 4LATER Advantage (Managed Risk) rider are subject to the allocation of their account value to our Managed Risk Strategies fund options and certain fixed-income options.

 

We design and actively manage the features and structure of our guaranteed benefit riders to maintain a competitive suite of products consistent with profitability and risk management goals.  To mitigate the increased risks associated with guaranteed benefits, we developed a dynamic hedging program.  The customized dynamic hedging program uses equity, interest rate and currency futures positions, interest rate and total return swaps and equity-based options depending upon the risks underlying the guarantees.  For more information on our hedging program, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Derivatives” and “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking” in the MD&A.  For information regarding risks related to guaranteed benefits, see “Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in the equity markets, interest rates and/or volatility affect the profitability of our products with guaranteed benefits; therefore, such changes may have a material adverse effect on our business and profitability.”

 

Although we do not have any significant concentration of customers, our American Legacy Variable Annuity (“ALVA”) product is significant to this segment.  The ALVA product accounted for 18%, 20% and 17% of our variable annuity product deposits in 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively, and represented 42%, 44% and 47%  of the segment’s total variable annuity product account values as of December 31, 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively.  In addition, fund choices for certain of our other variable annuity products offered include American Fund Insurance SeriesSM (“AFIS”) funds.  AFIS funds accounted for 20%, 22% and 19% of variable annuity product deposits in 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively, and represented 48%, 50% and 54%  of the segment’s total variable annuity product account values as of December 31, 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively.

 

Fixed Annuities

 

A fixed annuity preserves the principal value of the contract while guaranteeing a minimum interest rate to be credited to the accumulation value.  Our fixed annuity product offerings as of December 31, 2015, consisted of traditional fixed-rate and fixed indexed deferred annuities, as well as fixed-rate immediate and deferred income annuities with various payment options, including lifetime incomes.  Fixed annuity contracts are general account obligations.  We bear the investment risk for fixed annuity contracts.  To protect from premature withdrawals, we impose surrender charges.  Surrender charges are typically applicable during the early years of the annuity contract, with a declining level of surrender charges over time.  We expect to earn a spread between what we earn on the underlying general account investments supporting the fixed annuity product line and what we credit to our fixed annuity contract holders’ accounts.

 

We offer single and flexible premium fixed deferred annuities.  Single premium fixed deferred annuities are contracts that allow only a single premium to be paid.  Flexible premium fixed deferred annuities are contracts that allow multiple premium payments on either a scheduled or non-scheduled basis. 

 

Our fixed indexed annuities allow the contract holder to choose between a fixed interest crediting rate and an indexed interest crediting rate, which is based on the performance of the Standard & Poor’s (“S&P”) 500 Index® (“S&P 500”) or the S&P 500 Daily Risk Control 5%TM Index.  The indexed interest credit is guaranteed never to be less than zero.  Available with certain of our fixed indexed annuities, Lincoln Lifetime IncomeSM Edge provides the contract holder a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit.  We use derivatives to hedge the equity market risk associated with our fixed indexed annuity products.  For more information on our hedging program, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Derivatives” and “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking” in the MD&A.

 

Distribution

 

The Annuities segment distributes its individual fixed and variable annuity products through LFD.  LFD’s distribution channels give the Annuities segment access to its target markets.  LFD distributes the segment’s products to a large number of financial intermediaries, including LFN.  The financial intermediaries include wire/regional firms, independent financial planners, financial institutions and managing general agents.

 

 

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Competition

 

The annuities market is very competitive and consists of many companies, with no one company dominating the market for all products.  The Annuities segment competes with numerous other financial services companies.  The main factors upon which entities in this market compete are distribution channel access and the quality of wholesalers, investment performance, cost, product features, speed to market, brand recognition, financial strength ratings, crediting rates and client service.

 

RETIREMENT PLAN SERVICES

 

Overview

 

The Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services, primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace.  While our focus is employer-sponsored defined contribution plans, we also serve the defined benefit plan and individual retirement account (“IRA”) markets.  We provide a variety of plan investment vehicles, including individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities and mutual fund-based programs.  We also offer a broad array of plan services including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education and trust and custodial services through our affiliated trust company, the Lincoln Financial Group Trust Company.

 

Defined contribution plans are a popular employee benefit offered by many employers across a wide spectrum of industries and by employers large and small.  Retirement Plan Services primarily focuses on the mid to large market, which accounted for 54% of this segment’s total assets under management as of December 31, 2015.  In addition, Retirement Plan Services focuses on the small market 401(k) business, which accounted for 16% of this segment’s total assets under management as of December 31, 2015. 

 

Products and Services

 

The Retirement Plan Services segment currently brings three primary offerings to the employer-sponsored market:  LINCOLN DIRECTORSM group variable annuity, LINCOLN ALLIANCE® program and Multi-Fund® variable annuity.  Additionally, in 2014 we introduced the Lincoln Secured Retirement IncomeSM, a new GWB product available through a group variable annuity contract.  Retirement Plan Services also provides a series of IRA products, including the Lincoln Next Step® and the Lincoln Next Step SelectSM IRA.

 

LINCOLN DIRECTOR and Multi-Fund products are variable annuities.  The LINCOLN ALLIANCE program is a  mutual fund-based record-keeping platform.  These offerings primarily cover the 403(b), 401(k) and 457 plan marketplace.  The 403(b) plans are available to employees of educational institutions, not-for-profit healthcare organizations and certain other not-for-profit entities; 401(k) plans are generally available to employees of for-profit entities; and 457 plans are available to employees of not-for-profit entities and state and local government entities.  The investment options for our annuities encompass the spectrum of asset classes with varying levels of risk and include both equity and fixed-income. 

 

LINCOLN DIRECTOR  group variable annuity is a 401(k) defined contribution retirement plan solution available to small businesses, typically those with plans having less than $2 million in account values.  The LINCOLN DIRECTOR product offers participants a broad array of investment options from several fund families and a fixed account.  The Retirement Plan Services segment earns revenue through asset charges, investment management fees, surrender charges and recordkeeping fees from this product.  We also receive fees from the underlying mutual fund companies for the services we provide, and we earn investment margins on assets in the fixed account. 

 

The LINCOLN ALLIANCE program is a defined contribution retirement plan solution aimed at mid to large employers, typically those that have defined contribution plans with $2 million or more in account value.  The target market is primarily corporations, educational institutions,  healthcare providers and public sector employers.  The program bundles our traditional fixed annuity products with the employer’s choice of mutual funds, along with recordkeeping, plan compliance services and customized employee education services.  The program allows the use of any mutual fund.  We earn fees for our recordkeeping and educational services and other services that we provide to plan sponsors and participants.  We also earn investment margins on fixed annuities.

 

The Lincoln Secured Retirement IncomeSM product is a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (“GMWB”) available through group variable annuity contracts.  This product is intended to fulfill future needs of retirement security.  By offering a GMWB in-plan, we provide to plan sponsors and participants the ability to participate in market gains, protect their income and receive guaranteed income for life while still enabling access to their retirement asset market value.

 

Multi-Fund Variable Annuity is a defined contribution retirement plan solution with full-bundled administrative services and investment choices for small- to mid-sized healthcare, education, governmental and not-for-profit employers sponsoring 403(b) plans.  The product is available to the employer through the Multi-Fund group variable annuity contract or directly to the individual through the Multi-Fund Select variable annuity contract.  We earn mortality and expense charges, investment income on the fixed account and surrender charges from this product.  We also receive fees for services that we provide to funds in the underlying separate accounts.

 

In addition, the Lincoln  Next  Step series of products is a suite of mutual fund-based IRAs available exclusively for participants in Lincoln-serviced retirement plans and their spouses.  The products can accept rollovers and transfers from other providers as well as ongoing contributions.  The Lincoln Next Step IRA product has no annual account charges and offers an array of mutual fund investment options provided by 19 fund families all offered at net asset value. The Lincoln Next Step Select IRA has an annual record keeping charge and offers

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an even wider array of mutual fund investment options from 20 families, all at net asset value.  We earn 12b-1 and service fees on the mutual funds within the product.

 

Distribution

 

Retirement Plan Services products are primarily distributed in two ways: through our Institutional Retirement Distribution team and by LFD.  Wholesalers distribute these products through advisors, consultants, banks, wirehouses, TPAs and individual planners.  We expanded the distribution of the segment’s products as of the end of 2015 to 78 by growing the number of wholesalers and by other means, including continuing to increase relationship management expertise and growing the number of broker-dealer relationships.

 

The Multi-Fund® program is sold primarily by affiliated advisors.  The LINCOLN ALLIANCE® program is sold primarily through consultants, registered independent advisors, and both affiliated and non-affiliated financial advisors, planners and wirehouses.  LINCOLN DIRECTORSM group variable annuity is sold in the small marketplace by intermediaries, including financial advisors, TPAs, planners and wirehouses.

 

Competition

 

The retirement plan marketplace is very competitive and is comprised of many providers with no one company dominating the market for all products.  As stated above, we compete in the small, mid and large markets.  We compete with numerous other financial services companies.  The main factors upon which entities in this market compete are distribution channel access and the quality of wholesalers, investment performance, cost, product features, speed to market, brand recognition, financial strength ratings, crediting rates, client service and client compliance and fiduciary services. 

 

LIFE INSURANCE

 

Overview

 

The Life Insurance segment focuses on the creation and protection of wealth for its clients by providing life insurance products, including term insurance, both single (including COLI and BOLI) and survivorship versions of UL, VUL and IUL products, a linked-benefit product (which is UL with riders providing for long-term care costs) and a critical illness rider, which can be attached to UL, VUL or IUL policies.    Some of our products include secondary guarantees, which are discussed more fully below.    Generally, this segment has higher sales during the second half of the year with the fourth quarter being the strongest.  Mortality margins, morbidity margins, investment margins, expense margins and surrender fees drive life insurance profits.

 

Similar to the annuity product classifications described above, life products can be classified as “fixed” (including indexed) or “variable” contracts.  This classification describes whether we or the contract holders bear the investment risk of the assets supporting the policy.  This also determines the manner in which we earn investment margin profits from these products, either as investment spreads for fixed products/account values or as asset-based fees charged to variable products.

 

Products

 

We offer four categories of life insurance products consisting of:

 

UL

 

UL insurance products provide life insurance with account values that earn rates of return based on company-declared interest rates.  Contract holder account values are invested in our general account investment portfolio, so we bear the risk of investment performance.    We offer a variety of UL products, such as Lincoln LifeGuarantee® UL, Lincoln LifeCurrent® UL, and Lincoln LifeReserve® UL.    

 

In a UL contract, contract holders typically have flexibility in the timing and amount of premium payments and the amount of death benefit, provided there is sufficient account value to cover all policy charges for cost of insurance and expenses for the coming period.  Under certain contract holder options and market conditions, the death benefit amount may increase or decrease.  Premiums received on a UL product, net of expense loads and charges, are added to the contract holder’s account value.  The client has access to their account value (or a portion thereof), less surrender charges and policy loan payoffs, through contractual liquidity features such as loans, partial withdrawals and full surrenders.  Loans and withdrawals reduce the death benefit amount payable and are limited to certain contractual maximums (some of which are required under state law), and interest is charged on all loans.  Our UL contracts assess surrender charges against the policies’ account values for full or partial surrenders and certain policy changes that occur during the contractual surrender charge period.  Depending on the product selected, surrender charge periods can range from 0 to 25 years.

 

We also offer fixed IUL products that function similarly to a traditional UL policy, with the added flexibility of allowing contract holders to have portions of their account values earn credits based on the performance of indexes such as the S&P 500 or the 10-year Treasury yield.  These products include Lincoln WealthAdvantage® IUL, Lincoln LifeReserve® IUL Accumulator, and Lincoln LifePreserve Survivorship IUL.

 

As mentioned previously, we offer survivorship versions of our individual UL and IUL products.  These products insure two lives with a single policy and pay death benefits upon the second death.

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A UL policy with a secondary guarantee can stay in force, even if the base policy cash value is zero, as long as secondary guarantee requirements have been met.  These products include Lincoln LifeGuarantee® UL and Lincoln LifeGuarantee® SUL.    The secondary guarantee requirement is based on the payment of a required minimum premium or on the evaluation of a reference value within the policy, calculated in a manner similar to the base policy account value, but using different expense charges, cost of insurance charges and credited interest.  The parameters for the secondary guarantee requirement are listed in the contract.  As long as the contract holder pays the minimum premium or funds the policy to a level that keeps this calculated reference value positive, the death benefit will be guaranteed.  The reference value has no actual monetary value to the contract holder; it is only a calculated value used to determine whether or not the policy will lapse should the base policy cash value be less than zero. 

 

Our secondary guarantee benefits maintain the flexibility of a traditional UL policy, which allows a contract holder to take loans or withdrawals.  Although loans and withdrawals are likely to shorten the time period of the GDB, the guarantee is not automatically or completely forfeited.  The length of the guarantee may be increased at any time through additional excess premium deposits.  Reserves on UL products with secondary guarantees represented approximately 30% of total life reserves for the years ended December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively. 

 

VUL

 

VUL products are UL products that provide a return on account values linked to an underlying investment portfolio of variable funds offered through the product.  Our VUL products include single life insurance products such as Lincoln AssetEdge® VUL.    The value of the variable portion of the contract holder’s account varies with the performance of the underlying variable funds chosen by the contract holder.  As the return on the investment portfolio increases or decreases, the account value of the VUL policy will increase or decrease.  In addition, VUL products offer a fixed account option that is managed by us.  As with fixed UL products, contract holders have access, within contractual maximums, to account values through loans, withdrawals and surrenders.  Surrender charges are assessed during the surrender charge period, ranging from 0 to 20 years depending on the product.

 

We also offer survivorship versions of our individual VUL products, such as Lincoln Preservation Edge® SVUL.  These products insure two lives with a single policy and pay death benefits upon the second death.  Our COLI products are also VUL-type products.

 

We offer guaranteed benefit riders with certain of our VUL products, VULONE and SVULONE.  The ONE rider features offered in 2015 contractually guarantee to the contract holder that upon death, as long as secondary guarantee requirements have been met, the death benefit will be payable even if the account value equals zero.

 

Linked-Benefit Life Products and Products with Critical Illness Riders

 

Our linked-benefit life product,  MoneyGuard®, combines UL with long-term care insurance through the use of riders.  One type of rider allows the contract holder to accelerate death benefits on a tax-free basis in the event of a qualified long-term care need, reducing the remaining death benefit.  Another rider extends the long-term care insurance benefits for an additional limited period of time if the death benefit is fully accelerated.  Certain policies also provide a reduced death benefit to the contract holder’s beneficiary if the death benefit has been fully accelerated as long-term care benefits during the contract holder’s life.

 

Some life products provide for critical illness insurance by the use of riders attached to UL, VUL or IUL policies.  These riders allow the contract holder to accelerate death benefits on a tax-free basis in the event of a qualified critical illness condition.

 

Term Life Insurance

 

Term life insurance provides a fixed death benefit for a scheduled period of time.  Some of our term life insurance products give the policyholder the option to reduce the death benefit at a future time.  They usually do not offer cash values.  Scheduled policy premiums are required to be paid at least annually. 

 

Distribution

 

The Life Insurance segment’s products are sold through LFD.  LFD provides the Life Insurance segment with access to financial intermediaries in the following primary distribution channels:  wire/regional firms; independent planner firms (including LFN); financial institutions; and managing general agents/independent marketing organizations.  LFD distributes COLI and BOLI products and services to small- to mid-sized banks and mid- to large-sized corporations, primarily through intermediaries who specialize in one or both of these markets and who are serviced through a network of internal and external LFD sales professionals.  

 

Competition

 

The life insurance industry is very competitive and consists of many companies with no one company dominating the market for all products.  According to the American Council of Life Insurers (March 2015), the U.S. life insurance industry is made up of nearly 830 companies with sales and operations across the country.

 

The Life Insurance segment primarily targets the affluent to high net worth markets, defined as households with at least $1 million of financial assets.  For those individual policies we sold in 2015, the average face amount (excluding MoneyGuard® products) was approximately $1 million and average first year premiums paid were approximately $30,000.  The Life Insurance segment competes

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primarily on product design and customer service.  With respect to customer service, management tracks the speed, accuracy and responsiveness of service to customers’ calls and transaction requests.  Further, management tracks the turnaround time and quality for various client services such as processing of applications.  Additional competitive factors relevant to the Life Insurance segment include product breadth, speed to market, underwriting and risk management, financial strength ratings and extent of distribution network.  

 

Underwriting

 

In the context of life insurance, underwriting is the process of evaluating medical and non-medical information about an individual and determining the effect these factors statistically have on mortality.  This process of evaluation is often referred to as risk classification.  Of course, no one can accurately predict how long any individual will live, but certain risk factors can affect life expectancy and are evaluated during the underwriting process.

 

Claims Administration

 

Claims service is handled primarily in-house, and claims examiners are assigned to each claim notification based on coverage amount, type of claim and the experience of the examiner.  Claims meeting certain criteria are referred to senior claims examiners.  A formal quality assurance program is carried out to ensure the consistency and effectiveness of claims examining activities.  A network of in-house legal counsel, compliance officers, medical personnel and an anti-fraud investigative unit also support claims examiners.  A special team of claims examiners, in conjunction with claims management, focus on more complex claims matters such as claims incurred during the contestable period, beneficiary disputes and litigated claims.

 

GROUP PROTECTION

 

Overview

 

The Group Protection segment offers group non-medical insurance products, principally term life, disability and dental, to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans.  Although we sell to employer groups of all sizes, our target market is to employers with at least 100 employees and fewer than 5,000 employees.  For additional information on our employee-paid and employer-paid business, see “Results of Group Protection – Income (Loss) from Operations” in the MD&A.

 

Products

 

Life Insurance

 

We offer employer-sponsored group term life insurance products including basic, optional and voluntary term life insurance to employees and their dependents.  Additional benefits may be provided in the event of a covered individual’s accidental death or dismemberment. 

 

Group Disability Insurance

 

We offer short- and long-term employer-sponsored group disability insurance, which protects an employee against loss of wages due to illness or injury.  Short-term disability generally provides benefits for up to 26 weeks following a short waiting period, ranging from 1 to 30 days.  Long-term disability provides benefits following a longer waiting period, usually between 90 and 180 days and provides benefits for a longer period, at least 2 years and typically extending to normal (Social Security) retirement age.  The monthly benefits provided are subject to reduction when Social Security benefits are also paid.

 

Absence Management

 

We offer to manage employers’ family medical and company leave in conjunction with our disability coverage, in order to help employees recover and return to work.  The service provides a simple, compliant way to report and manage both leave and disability through a single source with integrated intake, claims management, communications and reporting, along with state of the art self-service capabilities via a mobile application and web portal. 

 

Group Dental and Vision

 

We offer a variety of employer-sponsored group dental insurance plans, which cover a portion of the cost of eligible dental procedures for employees and their dependents.  Products offered include indemnity coverage, which does not distinguish benefits based on a dental provider’s participation in a network arrangement, and a Preferred Provider Organization (“PPO”) product that does reflect the dental provider’s participation in the PPO network arrangement, including an agreement with network fee schedules.

 

We offer comprehensive employer-sponsored fully-insured vision plans with a wide range of benefits for protecting covered members’ sight and vision health.  All plans provide access to a national network of providers, with in- and out-of-network benefits. 

 

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Accident and Critical Illness Insurance

 

We offer employer-sponsored group accident insurance products for employees and their covered dependents.  This product is predominantly purchased on an employee-paid basis.  Accident insurance provides scheduled benefits for over 30 types of benefit triggers related to accidental causes, and it is available for non-occupational accidents exclusively or on a 24-hour coverage basis.

 

We offer employer-sponsored group critical illness insurance to employees and their covered dependents.  This product is predominantly purchased on an employee-paid basis.  The coverage provides for lump sum payouts upon the occurrence of one of the specified critical illness benefit triggers covered within a critical illness insurance policy.  This product also includes Lincoln CareCompassSM, a package of benefits and services that assists employees and their family members in prevention, early detection and treatment of critical illness events.

 

Distribution

 

The segment’s products are marketed primarily through a national distribution system, including approximately 170 managers and marketing representatives.  The managers and marketing representatives develop business through employee benefit brokers, consultants, TPAs and other employee benefit firms that work with employers to provide access to our products.

 

Competition

 

The group protection marketplace is very competitive.  Principal competitive factors include particular product features, price, quality of customer service and claims management, technological capabilities, quality and efficiency of distribution and financial strength ratings.  In this market, the Group Protection segment competes with a number of major companies and regionally with other companies offering all or some of the products within our product set.    In addition, there is competition in attracting brokers to actively market our products and attracting and retaining sales representatives to sell our products.  Key competitive factors in attracting brokers and sales representatives include product offerings and features, financial strength, support services and compensation.     

 

Underwriting

 

The Group Protection segment’s underwriters evaluate the risk characteristics of each employee group.  Generally, the relevant characteristics evaluated include employee census information (such as age, gender, income and occupation), employer industry classification, geographic location, benefit design elements and other factors.  The segment employs detailed underwriting policies, guidelines and procedures designed to assist the underwriter to properly assess and quantify risks.  The segment uses technology to efficiently review, price and issue smaller cases, utilizing its underwriting staff on larger, more complex cases.  Individual underwriting techniques (including evaluation of individual medical history information) may be used on certain covered individuals selecting larger benefit amounts.  For voluntary and other forms of employee paid coverages, minimum participation requirements are used to obtain a better spread of risk and minimize the risk of anti-selection.

 

Claims Administration

 

Claims for the Group Protection segment are managed by in-house claim specialists and outsourced third-party resources.  Claims are evaluated for eligibility and payment of benefits pursuant to the group insurance contract and in compliance with federal and state regulations.  Disability claims management is especially important to segment results, as results depend on both the incidence and the length of approved disability claims.    The segment employs a variety of clinical experts, including internal and external medical professionals and rehabilitation specialists, to evaluate medically supported functional capabilities, assess employability and develop return to work plans.  The accuracy and speed of life claims are important customer service and risk management factors.  Some life policies provide for the waiver of premium coverage in the event of the insured’s disability where our disability claims management expertise is utilized.    Dental claims management focuses on assisting plan administrators and members with the rising costs of insurance by utilizing tools to optimize dental claims payment accuracy through advanced claims review and validation, improved data analysis, enhanced clinical review of claims and provider utilization monitoring.

 

OTHER OPERATIONS

 

Other Operations includes the financial data for operations that are not directly related to the business segments.  Other Operations includes investments related to the excess capital in our insurance subsidiaries; corporate investments; benefit plan net liability; the unamortized deferred gain on indemnity reinsurance related to the sale to Swiss Re Life & Health America, Inc. (“Swiss Re”) in 2001; the results of certain disability income business; our run-off Institutional Pension business in the form of group annuity and insured funding-type of contracts; and debt.  Other Operations also included our investment in media properties.  In July 2015, we closed on the sale of our media properties as described above.

 

REINSURANCE

   

We follow the industry practice of reinsuring a portion of our life insurance and annuity risks with unaffiliated reinsurers.  In a reinsurance transaction, a reinsurer agrees to indemnify another insurer for part or all of its liability under a policy or policies it has issued for an agreed upon premium.  We use reinsurance to protect our insurance subsidiaries against the severity of losses on individual claims and unusually serious occurrences in which a number of claims produce an aggregate extraordinary loss.  Although reinsurance does not

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discharge the insurance subsidiaries from their primary liabilities to their contract holders for losses insured under the insurance policies, it does make the assuming reinsurer liable to the insurance subsidiaries for the reinsured portion of the risk.  Because we bear the risk of nonpayment by one or more of our reinsurers, we primarily cede reinsurance to well-capitalized, highly rated reinsurers.

 

As of December 31, 2015, our policy for our reinsurance program was to retain no more than $20 million on a single insured life.  We reinsure approximately 25% of the mortality risk on newly issued life insurance contracts.  As of December 31, 2015, approximately 43% of our total individual life in-force amount is reinsured.

 

Portions of our deferred annuity business have been reinsured on a modified coinsurance (“Modco”) basis with other companies to limit our exposure to interest rate risks.  In a Modco program, the reinsurer shares proportionally in all financial terms of the reinsured policies (i.e., premiums, expenses, claims, etc.) based on their respective quota share of the risk.

 

In addition, we acquire other reinsurance to cover products other than as discussed above with retentions and limits that management believes are appropriate for the circumstances.

 

We obtain reinsurance from a diverse group of reinsurers, and we monitor concentration and financial strength ratings of our principal reinsurers.  Swiss Re represents our largest reinsurance exposure.  The amounts recoverable from reinsurers were $5.6 billion and $5.7 billion as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively, of which $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion  were recoverable from Swiss Re related to the sale of our reinsurance business to Swiss Re for the respective periods.

 

We also utilize inter-company reinsurance agreements to manage our statutory capital position as well as our hedge program for variable annuity guarantees.  These inter-company agreements do not have an effect on our consolidated financial statements.

 

For more information regarding reinsurance, see “Reinsurance” in the MD&A and Note 9.  For risks involving reinsurance, see “Item 1A. Risk Factors – Operational Matters – We face risks of non-collectability of reinsurance and increased reinsurance rates, which could materially affect our results of operations.”  

 

RESERVES

 

The applicable insurance laws under which insurance companies operate require that they report, as liabilities, policy reserves to meet future obligations on their outstanding policies.  These reserves are the amounts that, with the additional premiums to be received and interest thereon compounded annually at certain assumed rates, are calculated to be sufficient to meet the various policy and contract obligations as they mature.  These laws specify that the reserves shall not be less than reserves calculated using certain specified mortality and morbidity tables, interest rates and methods of valuation.

 

For more information on reserves, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Derivatives” and “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Future Contract Benefits and Other Contract Holder Obligations” in the MD&A.

 

See “Regulatory” below for information on permitted practices and proposed regulations that may impact the amount of statutory reserves necessary to support our current insurance liabilities.

 

For risks related to reserves, see “Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals.”

 

INVESTMENTS

 

An important component of our financial results is the return on invested assets.  Our investment strategy is to balance the need for current income with prudent risk management, with an emphasis on generating sufficient current income to meet our obligations.  This approach requires the evaluation of risk and expected return of each asset class utilized, while still meeting our income objectives.  This approach also permits us to be more effective in our asset-liability management because decisions can be made based upon both the economic and current investment income considerations affecting assets and liabilities.  Investments by our insurance subsidiaries must comply with the insurance laws and regulations of the states of domicile.

 

Derivatives are used primarily for hedging purposes and, to a lesser extent, income generation.  Hedging strategies are employed for a number of reasons including, but not limited to, hedging certain portions of our exposure to changes in our GDB, GWB and GIB liabilities, interest rate fluctuations, the widening of bond yield spreads over comparable maturity U.S. government obligations and credit, foreign exchange and equity risks.  Income generation strategies include credit default swaps through replication synthetic asset transactions.  These derivatives synthetically create exposure in the general account to corporate debt, similar to investing in the credit markets. 

 

For additional information on our investments, including carrying values by category, quality ratings and net investment income, see “Consolidated Investments” in the MD&A, as well as Notes 1 and 5.

 

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FINANCIAL STRENGTH RATINGS

   

The Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Organizations rate the financial strength of our principal insurance subsidiaries.

 

Rating agencies rate insurance companies based on financial strength and the ability to pay claims, factors more relevant to contract holders than investors.  We believe that the ratings assigned by nationally recognized, independent rating agencies are material to our operations.  There may be other rating agencies that also rate our insurance companies, which we do not disclose in our reports.

 

Insurer Financial Strength Ratings

 

The insurer financial strength rating scales of A.M. Best, Fitch Ratings (“Fitch”), Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) and S&P are characterized as follows:

 

 

As of February 18, 2016, the financial strength ratings of our principal insurance subsidiaries, as published by the principal rating agencies that rate us were as follows:

 

 

 

A downgrade of the financial strength rating of one of our principal insurance subsidiaries could affect our competitive position in the insurance industry and make it more difficult for us to market our products, as potential customers may select companies with higher financial strength ratings.  Ratings are not recommendations to buy our securities.

 

All of our financial strength ratings are on outlook stable.  All of our ratings are subject to revision or withdrawal at any time by the rating agencies, and therefore, no assurance can be given that our principal insurance subsidiaries can maintain these ratings.  Each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating.  See “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Liquidity and Capital Resources – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow” in the MD&A for a discussion of our credit ratings.

 

REGULATORY

 

Insurance Regulation

 

Our insurance subsidiaries, like other insurance companies, are subject to regulation and supervision by the states, territories and countries in which they are licensed to do business.  The extent of such regulation varies, but generally has its source in statutes that delegate regulatory, supervisory and administrative authority to supervisory agencies.  In the U.S., this power is vested in state insurance departments.

 

In supervising and regulating insurance companies, state insurance departments, charged primarily with protecting contract holders and the public rather than investors, enjoy broad authority and discretion in applying applicable insurance laws and regulation for that purpose.  Our principal insurance subsidiaries, LNL, LLANY and FPP, are domiciled in the states of Indiana, New York and Indiana, respectively.

The insurance departments of the domiciliary states exercise principal regulatory jurisdiction over our insurance subsidiaries.  The extent of regulation by the states varies, but in general, most jurisdictions have laws and regulations governing standards of solvency, adequacy of reserves, reinsurance, capital adequacy, licensing of companies and agents to transact business, prescribing and approving policy forms, regulating premium rates for some lines of business, prescribing the form and content of financial statements and reports, regulating the type and amount of investments permitted and standards of business conduct.   Insurance company regulation is discussed further under “Insurance Holding Company Regulation” and “Restrictions on Subsidiaries’ Dividends and Other Payments.”

 

As part of their regulatory oversight process, state insurance departments conduct periodic, generally once every three to five years, examinations of the books, records, accounts and business practices of insurers domiciled in their states.  During the three-year period ended December 31, 2015, we have not received any material adverse findings resulting from state insurance department examinations of our insurance subsidiaries conducted during this period.

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State insurance laws and regulations require our U.S. insurance companies to file financial statements with state insurance departments everywhere they do business, and the operations of our U.S. insurance companies and accounts are subject to examination by those departments at any time.  Our U.S. insurance companies prepare statutory financial statements in accordance with accounting practices and procedures prescribed or permitted by these departments.  The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) has approved a series of statutory accounting principles that have been adopted, in some cases with minor modifications, by virtually all state insurance departments.  Changes in these statutory accounting principles can significantly affect our capital and surplus.  The New York State Department of Financial Services (“NYDFS”) does not recognize the NAIC revisions to Actuarial Guideline 38 (“AG38”) in applying New York law governing the reserves to be held for UL and VUL products containing secondary guarantees.  The change, which was effective as of December 31, 2013, impacts our New York-domiciled insurance subsidiary, LLANY.  LLANY discontinued the sale of these products in early 2013, but the change affects those policies sold prior to that time.  We began phasing in the increase in reserves over five years beginning in 2013.  As of December 31, 2015, we have increased reserves by $270 million.  We do not expect the amount for each of the remaining years to exceed $90 million per year.  We do not expect the total reserve increase to have a material adverse effect on our financial condition.  See “Item 1A. Risk Factors – Legislative, Regulatory and Tax – Attempts to mitigate the impact of Regulation XXX and Actuarial Guideline 38 may fail in whole or in part resulting in an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.”

 

Currently, insurance companies are using a variety of captive reinsurance structures to support their respective businesses.  The NAIC through its various committees, task forces and working groups has been studying the use of captives and special purpose vehicles to transfer insurance risk and has been evaluating the adequacy of existing NAIC model laws and regulations applicable to captives.    Recently, the NAIC adopted new Actuarial Guideline 48 (“AG48”) that provides additional restrictions on the type and quality of assets that may be used to support reinsurance transactions on business covered by the Valuation of Life Insurance Policies Model Regulation (“XXX”) and AG38 effective for new transactions on or after January 1, 2015.  Failure to comply with these requirements will generally result in the appointed actuary being required to issue a qualified actuarial opinion with regard to that reinsurance transaction.  Pre-existing reinsurance arrangements will not be affected by AG48 unless they are modified in certain specified ways on or after January 1, 2015.

 

For more information on statutory reserving and our use of captive reinsurance structures, see “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Liquidity and Capital Resources” in the MD&A.

 

Insurance Holding Company Regulation

 

LNC and its primary insurance subsidiaries are subject to regulation pursuant to the insurance holding company laws of the states of Indiana and New York.  These insurance holding company laws generally require an insurance holding company and insurers that are members of such insurance holding company’s system to register with the insurance department authorities, to file with it certain reports disclosing information, including their capital structure, ownership, management, financial condition and certain inter-company transactions, including material transfers of assets and inter-company business agreements and to report material changes in that information.  These laws also require that inter-company transactions be fair and reasonable and, under certain circumstances, prior approval of the insurance departments must be received before entering into an inter-company transaction.  Further, these laws require that an insurer’s contract holders’ surplus following any dividends or distributions to shareholder affiliates is reasonable in relation to the insurer’s outstanding liabilities and adequate for its financial needs.

 

In general, under state holding company regulations, no person may acquire, directly or indirectly, a controlling interest in our capital stock unless such person, corporation or other entity has obtained prior approval from the applicable insurance commissioner for such acquisition of control.  Pursuant to such laws, in general, any person acquiring, controlling or holding the power to vote, directly or indirectly, 10% or more of the voting securities of an insurance company, is presumed to have “control” of such company.  This presumption may be rebutted by a showing that control does not exist in fact.  The insurance commissioner, however, may find that “control” exists in circumstances in which a person owns or controls a smaller amount of voting securities.  To obtain approval from the insurance commissioner of any acquisition of control of an insurance company, the proposed acquirer must file with the applicable commissioner an application containing information regarding: the identity and background of the acquirer and its affiliates; the nature, source and amount of funds to be used to carry out the acquisition; the financial statements of the acquirer and its affiliates; any potential plans for disposition of the securities or business of the insurer; the number and type of securities to be acquired; any contracts with respect to the securities to be acquired; any agreements with broker-dealers; and other matters.

 

Other jurisdictions in which our insurance subsidiaries are licensed to transact business may have similar or additional requirements for prior approval of any acquisition of control of an insurance or reinsurance company licensed or authorized to transact business in those jurisdictions.  Additional requirements in those jurisdictions may include re-licensing or subsequent approval for renewal of existing licenses upon an acquisition of control.  As further described below, laws that govern the holding company structure also govern payment of dividends to us by our insurance subsidiaries.

 

Restrictions on Subsidiaries’ Dividends and Other Payments

 

We are a holding company that transacts substantially all of our business directly and indirectly through subsidiaries.  Our primary assets are the stock of our operating subsidiaries.  Our ability to meet our obligations on our outstanding debt and to pay dividends and our general and administrative expenses depends on the surplus and earnings of our subsidiaries and the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends or to advance or repay funds to us.

 

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Our insurance subsidiaries are subject to certain insurance department regulatory restrictions as to the transfer of funds and payment of dividends to the holding company.  Under Indiana laws and regulations, our Indiana insurance subsidiaries, including our primary insurance subsidiary, LNL, may pay dividends to LNC without prior approval of the Indiana Insurance Commissioner (the “Commissioner”), only from unassigned surplus or must receive prior approval of the Commissioner to pay a dividend if such dividend, along with all other dividends paid within the preceding 12 consecutive months, would exceed the statutory limitation.  The current statutory limitation is the greater of 10% of the insurer’s contract holders’ surplus, as shown on its last annual statement on file with the Commissioner or the insurer’s statutory net gain from operations for the previous 12 months, but in no event to exceed statutory unassigned surplus.  Indiana law gives the Commissioner broad discretion to disapprove requests for dividends in excess of these limits.  LNL’s subsidiary, LLANY, a New York-domiciled insurance company, has similar restrictions, except that in New York it is the lesser of 10% of surplus to contract holders as of the immediately preceding calendar year or net gain from operations for the immediately preceding calendar year, not including realized capital gains.

 

Indiana law also provides that following the payment of any dividend, the insurer’s contract holders’ surplus must be reasonable in relation to its outstanding liabilities and adequate for its financial needs, and permits the Commissioner to bring an action to rescind a dividend that violates these standards.  In the event the Commissioner determines that the contract holders’ surplus of one subsidiary is inadequate, the Commissioner could use his or her broad discretionary authority to seek to require us to apply payments received from another subsidiary for the benefit of that insurance subsidiary.  For information regarding dividends paid to us during 2015 from our insurance subsidiaries, see “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Liquidity and Capital Resources – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow” in the MD&A.

   

Risk-Based Capital

 

The NAIC has adopted risk-based capital (“RBC”) requirements for life insurance companies to evaluate the adequacy of statutory capital and surplus in relation to investment and insurance risks.  The requirements provide a means of measuring the minimum amount of statutory surplus appropriate for an insurance company to support its overall business operations based on its size and risk profile.  There are five major risks involved in determining the requirements:

 

 

 

A company’s risk-based statutory surplus is calculated by applying factors and performing calculations relating to various asset, premium, claim, expense and reserve items.  Regulators can then measure adequacy of a company’s statutory surplus by comparing it to the RBC determined by the formula.  Under RBC requirements, regulatory compliance is determined by the ratio of a company’s total adjusted capital, as defined by the NAIC, to its company action level of RBC (known as the RBC ratio), also as defined by the NAIC.  Accordingly, factors that have an impact on the total adjusted capital of our insurance subsidiaries, such as the permitted practices discussed above, will also affect their RBC levels.

 

Four levels of regulatory attention may be triggered if the RBC ratio is insufficient:

 

 

As of December 31, 2015, the RBC ratios of LNL, LLANY and FPP reported to their respective states of domicile and the NAIC all exceeded the “company action level.”  We believe that we will be able to maintain the RBC ratios of our insurance subsidiaries in excess of “company action level” through prudent underwriting, claims handling, investing and capital management.  However, no assurances can be given that developments affecting the insurance subsidiaries, many of which could be outside of our control, will not cause the RBC ratios to fall below our targeted levels.  These developments may include, but may not be limited to:  changes to the manner in which the RBC ratio is calculated; new regulatory requirements for calculating reserves, such as principles-based reserving; economic conditions leading to higher levels of impairments of securities in our insurance subsidiaries’ general accounts; and an inability to finance life reserves including the issuing of letters of credit (“LOCs”) supporting inter-company reinsurance structures.

 

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See “Item 1A. Risk Factors – Liquidity and Capital Position – A decrease in the capital and surplus of our insurance subsidiaries may result in a downgrade to our credit and insurer financial strength ratings.”

 

Privacy Regulations

 

In the course of our business, we collect and maintain personal data from our customers including personally identifiable non-public financial and health information, which subjects us to regulation under federal and state privacy laws.  These laws require that we institute certain policies and procedures in our business to safeguard this information from improper use or disclosure.  While we employ a robust and tested information security program, if federal or state regulators establish further regulations for addressing customer privacy, we may need to amend our policies and adapt our internal procedures.  For information regarding cybersecurity risks, see “Item 1A. Risk Factors – Operational Matters – Our information systems may experience interruptions or breaches in security and a failure of disaster recovery systems could result in a loss or disclosure of confidential information, damage to our reputation and impairment of our ability to conduct business effectively.”

   

Federal Initiatives

 

The U.S. federal government does not directly regulate the insurance industry; however, federal initiatives from time to time can impact the insurance industry.  Although much of the initial rulemaking has been completed, the implementation process continues and the marketplace continues to evolve in the changing regulatory environment.  

 

Financial Reform Legislation

 

Since it was enacted in 2010, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (“Dodd-Frank Act”) has imposed considerable reform in the financial services industry.  The ongoing implementation continues to present challenges and uncertainties for financial market participants.   

 

For instance, the Dodd-Frank Act imposed significant changes to the regulation of derivatives transactions, which we use to mitigate many types of risk in our business.  The mandate to clear interest rate swaps requires us to post initial margin in support of these transactions, which was not required when we and our industry peers were permitted to transact these trades in the over-the-counter market.  We also expect increased clearing costs as the marketplace responds to the evolving regulatory environment, including changes to capital requirements imposed on our bank counterparties. 

 

Swap documentation and processing requirements will change in light of recently-finalized rules for margining uncleared swaps, and the ultimate impact on our derivatives use remains unclear.  The exchange of variation margin in over-the counter trades is already part of our standard practice, but the requirement to post initial margin beginning in 2020 will require us to manage our derivatives trading and the attendant liquidity requirements in ways we continue to evaluate.  Although the newly-adopted rules provide some flexibility in the categories of eligible collateral, it is still possible that we may be required to hold more of our assets in cash and other low-yielding investments in order to satisfy margin requirements.  Documentation requirements attendant to the new margining regime are potentially burdensome and costly.  The new regulations may reduce the level of risk exposure we have to our derivatives counterparties (currently managed by holding collateral), but will increase our exposure to central clearinghouses and clearing members with which we transact.  Central clearinghouses and regulators alike continue to evaluate the appropriate allocation of risk in the event of the failure of a clearing member or clearinghouse, and the results of these deliberations may change or use of derivatives in ways we cannot yet determine.  The standardization of derivatives products for clearing may make customized products unavailable or uneconomical, potentially decreasing the effectiveness of some of our hedging activities.  As implementation of the new regulatory framework continues and the marketplace continues to evolve, the extent to which our derivatives costs and strategies may change and the extent to which those changes may affect the range or pricing of our products remains uncertain.

 

In addition, the Dodd-Frank Act requires new regulations governing broker-dealers and investment advisers.  In particular, the fiduciary standard rulemaking could potentially have broad implications for how our products are designed and sold in the future.  In January 2011, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) released a study on the obligations and standards of conduct of financial professionals, as required under the Dodd-Frank Act.  The SEC staff recommended establishing a uniform fiduciary standard for investment advisers and broker-dealers when providing investment advice about securities, including guidance for principal trading and definitions of the duties of loyalty and care owed to retail customers that would be consistent with the standard that currently applies to investment advisers.  A more uniform fiduciary standard could potentially affect our business in areas including, but not limited to: design and availability of proprietary products; commission-based compensation arrangements; advertising and other communications; use of finders or solicitors of clients (i.e., business contacts who provide referrals); and continuing education requirements for advisors.

 

Additional provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act include, among other things, the creation of a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to protect consumers of certain financial products; and changes to certain corporate governance rules.  The SEC has postponed rule making on a number of these provisions through 2015.  In December 2013, the new Federal Insurance Office established under the Dodd-Frank Act issued a wide-ranging report on the state of insurance regulation in the U.S., together with a series of recommendations on ways to monitor and improve the regulatory environment.  The ultimate impact of these recommendations on our business is undeterminable at this time.

 

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Department of Labor Regulation

 

On April 14, 2015, the Department of Labor (“DOL”) re-proposed a regulation that would, if finalized in current form, substantially expand the range of activities that would be considered to be fiduciary investment advice under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”) and the Internal Revenue Code.  Although the final regulation may differ from the proposal, if finalized as proposed, the investment-related information and support that our advisors and employees could provide to plan sponsors, participants and IRA holders on a non-fiduciary basis could be substantially limited beyond what is allowed under current law.  This could change the methods that we use to deliver products and services as well as the nature and amount of compensation and fees that we and our advisors may receive for investment related products and services.  It could also materially change the way we distribute and pay compensation on our products that are sold through third party intermediaries.  If any of our advisors were to provide fiduciary investment advice as defined in the new regulation, this regulation could also expose us and our advisors to additional risk of legal liability in connection with that advice.  The final regulation is expected to be issued in the first half of 2016.  We expect that there will be some differences between the proposal and the final regulation, but the exact nature and extent of these differences is unknown at this time.  Therefore, until the final regulation is published, the exact impact on our businesses is uncertain.

 

Federal Tax Legislation

 

The tax writing committees in both the House of Representatives and the Senate have spent a significant amount of time over the past several years considering various tax reform plans and proposals.  Most notably, the House Ways and Means Committee, led by former Representative Dave Camp, released a draft of a tax reform proposal in early 2014.  The draft tax reform proposal included several significant changes to insurance company taxation.  While not enacted previously as part of any broad-based reform, many of those provisions may yet be considered as revenue raisers or ‘pay-fors’ for potential stand-alone legislation.  The tax writing committees continue to consider a variety of tax reform options, focusing in the near-term on international tax law changes.  There is also broad support in both Houses of Congress for comprehensive tax reform, and if comprehensive tax reform legislation does move forward, there may be an impact to the life insurance company tax regime.  The likelihood of enactment of any of the proposals, whether as part of a comprehensive tax reform act or as discrete legislative changes, is highly uncertain at this time due to the volatile political environment as well as the uncertainty that always exists with any tax reform initiative in general and in particular in an election year.

 

On February 9, 2016, the Obama Administration submitted its fiscal year 2017 budget to Congress.  The budget for 2017 follows previous budget proposals from the Obama Administration and included policy and tax recommendations that could have an effect on our Company and our products.  Included among the various proposed policy recommendations are modifications to the dividends-received deduction for life insurance company separate accounts.  If these proposed changes were enacted into law or, if applicable, changed administratively through the tax regulation process, they could have an adverse effect upon the Company’s profitability.  The budget also proposes changes to the tax laws that would affect purchasers of products offered and sold through our various business lines, including such items as expanding the pro-rata interest expense disallowance for COLI, the creation of an auto-enrollment IRA program for small employers and encouraging increased use of qualified plans through tax credits to defray start-up costs.    The 2017 budget proposal also includes an updated version of a financial services surcharge, known as the “Bank Tax,” that includes insurance companies within its reach.  Some of these changes, should they become law, would have the potential to improve the attractiveness of our products to consumers and enhance our sales.  Other provisions could have the opposite effect.  The submission of the Administration’s budget to Congress begins the Congressional Budget process.  Any changes to the tax law will require legislation, which may or may not incorporate provisions found in the budget proposal, to move through both houses of Congress before being signed into law by the President.

 

Additionally, the uncertainty of federal funding and the future of the Social Security Disability Insurance (“SSDI”) program can have a substantial impact on the entire group benefit market.  According to the Social Security Administration’s 2015 Annual Report, the SSDI program is currently projected to become insolvent by the end of 2016 without federal budget changes.  SSDI benefits are a direct offset to the cost of group disability benefits.  Changes to SSDI eligibility requirements and benefit allowances could potentially increase the cost of group disability benefits.

 

Health Care Reform Legislation

 

In March 2010, the President signed into law the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which was subsequently amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act.  This legislation, as well as subsequent state and federal laws and regulations, includes provisions that provide for additional taxes to help finance the cost of these reforms and substantive changes and additions to health care and related laws, which could potentially impact some of our lines of businesses.

 

Patriot Act

 

The USA PATRIOT Act of 2001 includes anti-money laundering and financial transparency laws as well as various regulations applicable to broker-dealers and other financial services companies, including insurance companies.  Financial institutions are required to collect information regarding the identity of their customers, watch for and report suspicious transactions, respond to requests for information by regulatory authorities and law enforcement agencies, and share information with other financial institutions.  As a result, we are required to maintain certain internal compliance practices, procedures and controls.

 

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ERISA Considerations

 

ERISA is a comprehensive federal statute that applies to U.S. employee benefit plans sponsored by private employers and labor unions.  Plans subject to ERISA include pension and profit sharing plans and welfare plans, including health, life and disability plans.  ERISA provisions include reporting and disclosure rules, standards of conduct that apply to plan fiduciaries and prohibitions on transactions known as “prohibited transactions,” such as conflict-of-interest transactions and certain transactions between a benefit plan and a party in interest.  ERISA also provides for a scheme of civil and criminal penalties and enforcement.  Our insurance, asset management, plan administrative services and other businesses provide services to employee benefit plans subject to ERISA, including services where we may act as an ERISA fiduciary.  In addition to ERISA regulation of businesses providing products and services to ERISA plans, we become subject to ERISA’s prohibited transaction rules for transactions with those plans, which may affect our ability to enter transactions, or the terms on which transactions may be entered, with those plans, even in businesses unrelated to those giving rise to party in interest status.

 

Broker-Dealer and Securities Regulation

 

In addition to being registered under the Securities Act of 1933, some of our separate accounts as well as mutual funds that we sponsor are registered as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and the shares of certain of these entities are qualified for sale in some or all states and the District of Columbia.  We also have several subsidiaries that are registered as broker-dealers under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”) and are subject to federal and state regulation, including, but not limited to, the Financial Industry Regulation Authority’s (“FINRA”) net capital rules.  In addition, we have several subsidiaries that are investment advisors registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.  Agents and employees registered or associated with any of our broker-dealer subsidiaries are subject to the Exchange Act and to examination requirements and regulation by the SEC, FINRA and state securities commissioners.  Regulation also extends to various LNC entities that employ or control those individuals.  The SEC and other governmental agencies and self-regulatory organizations, as well as state securities commissions in the U.S., have the power to conduct administrative proceedings that can result in censure, fines, the issuance of cease-and-desist orders or suspension and termination or limitation of the activities of the regulated entity or its employees.

 

Environmental Considerations

 

Federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations apply to our ownership and operation of real property.  Inherent in owning and operating real property are the risks of hidden environmental liabilities and the costs of any required clean-up.  Under the laws of certain states, contamination of a property may give rise to a lien on the property to secure recovery of the costs of clean-up, which could adversely affect our commercial mortgage lending.  In several states, this lien has priority over the lien of an existing mortgage against such property.  In addition, in some states and under the federal Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (“CERCLA”), we may be liable, as an “owner” or “operator,” for costs of cleaning-up releases or threatened releases of hazardous substances at a property mortgaged to us.  We also risk environmental liability when we foreclose on a property mortgaged to us.  Federal legislation provides for a safe harbor from CERCLA liability for secured lenders that foreclose and sell the mortgaged real estate, provided that certain requirements are met.  However, there are circumstances in which actions taken could still expose us to CERCLA liability.  Application of various other federal and state environmental laws could also result in the imposition of liability on us for costs associated with environmental hazards.

 

We routinely conduct environmental assessments for real estate we acquire for investment and before taking title through foreclosure to real property collateralizing mortgages that we hold.  Although unexpected environmental liabilities can always arise, based on these environmental assessments and compliance with our internal procedures, we believe that any costs associated with compliance with environmental laws and regulations or any clean-up of properties would not have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

 

Intellectual Property

 

We rely on a combination of copyright, trademark, patent and trade secret laws to establish and protect our intellectual property.  We have implemented a patent strategy designed to protect innovative aspects of our products and processes which we believe distinguish us from competitors.  We currently own several issued U.S. patents and have additional patent applications pending in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 

 

We regard our patents as valuable assets and intend to protect them against infringement.  However, complex legal and factual determinations and changes in patent law make protection uncertain, and while we believe our patents provide us with a competitive advantage, we cannot be certain that patents will be issued from any of our pending patent applications or that any issued patents will have sufficient breadth to offer meaningful protection.  In addition, our issued patents may be successfully challenged, invalidated, circumvented or found unenforceable so that our patent rights would not create an effective competitive barrier. 

 

Finally, we have an extensive portfolio of trademarks and service marks that we consider important in the marketing of our products and services, including, among others, the trademarks of the Lincoln National and Lincoln Financial names, the Lincoln silhouette logo and the combination of these marks.  Trademark registrations may be renewed indefinitely subject to continued use and registration requirements.  We regard our trademarks as valuable assets in marketing our products and services and intend to protect them against infringement and dilution.

 

 

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EMPLOYEES

 

As of December 31, 2015, we had a total of 9,312 employees. In addition, we had a total of 1,223 planners and agents who had active sales contracts with one of our insurance subsidiaries.  None of our employees are represented by a labor union, and we are not a party to any collective bargaining agreements.  We consider our employee relations to be good.

 

AVAILABLE INFORMATION

 

We file annual, quarterly and current reports, proxy statements and other documents with the SEC under the Exchange Act.  The public may read and copy any materials that we file with the SEC at the SEC’s Public Reference Room at 100 F Street, NE, Washington, DC 20549.  The public may obtain information on the operation of the Public Reference Room by calling the SEC at 1-800-SEC-0330.  Also, the SEC maintains a website that contains reports, proxy and information statements and other information regarding issuers, including LNC, that file electronically with the SEC.  The public can obtain any documents that we file with the SEC at www.sec.gov.

 

We also make available, free of charge, on or through our website, www.lfg.com, our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, Current Reports on Form 8-K and amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13(a) or 15(d) of the Exchange Act as soon as reasonably practicable after we electronically file such material with, or furnish it to, the SEC. 

 

Item 1A.  Risk Factors

 

You should carefully consider the risks described below before investing in our securities.  The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only ones facing our Company.  Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently deem immaterial may also impair our business operations.  If any of these risks actually occur, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be materially affected.  In that case, the value of our securities could decline substantially.

 

Legislative, Regulatory and Tax

 

Our businesses are heavily regulated and changes in regulation may affect our insurance subsidiary capital requirements or reduce our profitability.

 

State Regulation

 

Our insurance subsidiaries are subject to extensive supervision and regulation in the states in which we do business.  The supervision and regulation relate to numerous aspects of our business and financial condition.  The primary purpose of the supervision and regulation is the protection of our insurance contract holders, and not our investors.  The extent of regulation varies, but generally is governed by state statutes.  These statutes delegate regulatory, supervisory and administrative authority to state insurance departments.  This system of supervision and regulation covers, among other things:

 

 

State insurance regulators and the NAIC regularly re-examine existing laws and regulations applicable to insurance companies and their products.  Changes in these laws and regulations, or in interpretations thereof, sometimes lead to additional expense for the insurer and, thus, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.  For example, the NAIC could enact additional regulations related to the reinsurance of variable annuity business through the use of captive insurance arrangements that could limit or even eliminate our ability to reinsure such business in the future.

 

Although we endeavor to maintain all required licenses and approvals our businesses may not fully comply with the wide variety of applicable laws and regulations or the relevant authority’s interpretation of the laws and regulations, which may change from time to time.  Also, regulatory authorities have relatively broad discretion to grant, renew or revoke licenses and approvals.  If we do not have the requisite licenses and approvals or do not comply with applicable regulatory requirements, the insurance regulatory authorities could preclude or temporarily suspend us from carrying on some or all of our activities or impose substantial fines.  Further, insurance regulatory authorities have relatively broad discretion to issue orders of supervision, which permit such authorities to supervise the business and operations of an insurance company.  As of December 31, 2015, no state insurance regulatory authority had imposed on us any material fines or revoked or suspended any of our licenses to conduct insurance business in any state or issued an order of

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supervision with respect to our insurance subsidiaries, which would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition.

 

Federal Regulation

 

In addition, our broker-dealer and investment advisor subsidiaries as well as our variable annuities and variable life insurance products, are subject to regulation and supervision by the SEC and FINRA.  These laws and regulations generally grant supervisory agencies and self-regulatory organizations broad administrative powers, including the power to limit or restrict the subsidiaries from carrying on their businesses in the event that they fail to comply with such laws and regulations.  The foregoing regulatory or governmental bodies, as well as the DOL and others, have the authority to review our products and business practices and those of our agents, advisors, registered representatives, associated persons and employees.  In recent years, there has been increased scrutiny of the insurance industry by these bodies, which has included more extensive examinations, regular sweep inquiries and more detailed review of disclosure documents.  These regulatory or governmental bodies may bring regulatory or other legal actions against us if, in their view, our practices, or those of our agents or employees, are improper.  These actions can result in substantial fines, penalties or prohibitions or restrictions on our business activities and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations or financial condition.

 

Department of Labor proposed regulation defining fiduciary could cause changes to the manner in which we deliver products and services as well as changes in nature and amount of compensation and fees.  

 

On April 14, 2015, the DOL re-proposed a regulation that would, if finalized in current form, substantially expand the range of activities that would be considered to be fiduciary investment advice under ERISA and the Internal Revenue Code.  Although the final regulation may differ from the proposal, if finalized as proposed, the investment-related information and support that our advisors and employees could provide to plan sponsors, participants and IRA holders on a non-fiduciary basis could be substantially limited beyond what is allowed under current law.  This could change the methods that we use to deliver products and services, and pay and receive compensation for our investment-related products and services.  The final regulation could impact sales or margins, especially of variable annuities.  In addition, if any of our advisors were to provide fiduciary investment advice as defined in the new regulation, this regulation could also expose us and our advisors to additional risk of legal liability in connection with that advice.    The final regulation is expected to be issued in the first half of 2016.    For additional information regarding the DOL proposed regulation, see “Item 1. Business – Regulatory – Insurance Regulation – Federal Initiatives – Department of Labor Regulation.”

 

Attempts to mitigate the impact of Regulation XXX and Actuarial Guideline 38 may fail in whole or in part resulting in an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

 

XXX requires insurers to establish additional statutory reserves for term life insurance policies with long-term premium guarantees and UL policies with secondary guarantees.  In addition, AG38 clarifies the application of XXX with respect to certain UL insurance policies with secondary guarantees.  Virtually all of our newly issued term and the majority of our newly issued UL insurance products are affected by XXX and AG38. The application of both AG38 and XXX involve numerous interpretations.  If state insurance departments do not agree with our interpretations, we may have to increase reserves related to such policies.  The NYDFS does not recognize the NAIC revisions to AG38 in applying the New York law governing the reserves to be held for UL and VUL products containing secondary guarantees.  The change, which was effective as of December 31, 2013, impacts our New York-domiciled insurance subsidiary, LLANY.  LLANY discontinued the sale of these products in early 2013, but the change affects those policies sold prior to that time.  We began phasing in the increase in reserves over five years beginning in 2013.  As of December 31, 2015, we have increased reserves by $270 million.    

 

We have implemented, and plan to continue to implement, reinsurance and capital management transactions to mitigate the capital impact of XXX and AG38, including the use of captive reinsurance subsidiaries. Recently, the NAIC adopted AG48 regulating the terms of these arrangements that are entered into or amended in certain ways after December 31, 2014.  This new guideline imposes restrictions on the types of assets that can be used to support the reinsurance in these kinds of transactions.  We cannot provide assurance that in light of AG48 and/or future rules and regulations that we will be able to continue to efficiently implement transactions or take other actions to mitigate the impact of XXX or AG38 on future sales of term and UL insurance products.  If we are unable to continue to efficiently implement such solutions for any reason, we may have lower returns on such products sold than we currently anticipate and/or reduce our sales of these products.    

 

Changes in U.S. federal income tax law could increase our tax costs and make the products that we  sell less desirable.

 

Changes to the Internal Revenue Code, the issuance of administrative rulings or court decisions could increase our effective tax rate, make our products less desirable and lower our net income on both a statutory accounting and GAAP basis.   For example, the House Ways and Means Committee, led by former Representative Dave Camp, previously released a draft of a tax reform act in early 2014 that proposed several significant changes to insurance company taxation.  While those provisions were not enacted, tax reform discussions continue at the Congressional Committee level.  These discussions have a near-term focus on international tax law changes, but there is also broad support in both Houses of Congress for comprehensive tax reform.  If comprehensive tax reform legislation does move forward, there may be an impact to the life insurance company tax regime.

 

Further the Obama Administration released its fiscal year 2017 budget proposal on February 9, 2016.  The budget includes proposals that, if enacted, would affect the taxation of life insurance companies and certain life insurance products.  If enacted into law, the statutory changes contemplated by the Administration’s revenue proposals could, among other things, change the method used to determine the

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amount of dividend income received by a life insurance company on assets held in separate accounts used to support products, including variable life insurance and variable annuity contracts, that are eligible for the dividends-received deduction.  The dividends-received deduction reduces the amount of dividend income subject to tax and is a significant component of the difference between our actual tax expense and expected amount determined using the federal statutory tax rate of 35%.  Our income tax provision for the year ended December 31, 2015, included a tax benefit for the separate account dividends-received deduction benefit of $180 million relating to the 2015 tax year.   In addition, the proposals could affect the treatment of COLI policies by limiting the availability of certain interest deductions for companies that purchase those policies.  If proposals of this type were enacted, our sale of COLI, variable annuities and variable life products could be adversely affected, and our actual tax expense could increase, thereby reducing earnings.

 

Legal and regulatory actions are inherent in our businesses and could result in financial losses or harm our businesses.

 

We are, and in the future may be, subject to legal and regulatory actions in the ordinary course of our insurance and retirement operations.  Pending legal actions include proceedings relating to aspects of our businesses and operations that are specific to us and proceedings that are typical of the businesses in which we operate. Some of these proceedings have been brought on behalf of various alleged classes of complainants.  In certain of these matters, the plaintiffs are seeking large and/or indeterminate amounts, including punitive or exemplary damages.  Substantial legal liability in these or future legal or regulatory actions could have a material financial effect or cause significant harm to our reputation, which in turn could materially harm our business prospects. See Note 13 for a description of legal and regulatory proceedings and actions.  

 

Implementation of the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act may subject us to substantial additional federal regulation, and we cannot predict the effect on our business, results of operations, cash flows or financial condition.

 

Since it was enacted in 2010, the Dodd-Frank Act has brought wide-ranging changes to the financial services industry, including changes to the rules governing derivatives; a study by the SEC of the rules governing broker-dealers and investment advisers with respect to individual investors and investment advice, followed potentially by rulemaking; the creation of a new Federal Insurance Office within the U.S. Treasury to gather information and make recommendations regarding regulation of the insurance industry; the creation of a resolution authority to unwind failing institutions; the creation of a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to protect consumers of certain financial products; and changes to executive compensation and certain corporate governance rules, among other things.

 

The Dodd-Frank Act requires significant rulemaking across numerous agencies within the federal government, some of which has been implemented.  The implementation of newly-adopted rules will continue throughout 2016, as will the rulemaking process.  The ultimate impact of these provisions on our businesses (including product offerings), results of operations, liquidity and capital resources is currently indeterminable. 

 

Changes in accounting standards issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other standard-setting bodies may adversely affect our financial statements.

 

Our financial statements are prepared in accordance with GAAP as identified in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) Accounting Standards CodificationTM (“ASC”).  From time to time, we are required to adopt new or revised accounting standards or guidance that are incorporated into the FASB ASC.  It is possible that future accounting standards we are required to adopt could change the current accounting treatment that we apply to our consolidated financial statements and that such changes could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

 

Specifically, the FASB is working on several key projects, including those that could result in significant changes to how we account for and report our insurance contracts, financial instruments and deferred acquisition costs (“DAC”).  Depending on the magnitude of the changes ultimately adopted by the FASB, the proposed changes to GAAP may impose special demands on issuers in the areas of employee training, internal controls, contract fulfillment and disclosure and may affect how we manage our business, as it may affect other business processes such as design of compensation plans, product design, etc.  The effective dates and transition methods are not known; however, issuers may be required to or may choose to adopt the new standards retrospectively.  In this case, the issuer will report results under the new accounting method as of the effective date, as well as for all periods presented.  In addition, the SEC is considering whether and how to incorporate International Financial Reporting Standards into the U.S. financial reporting system. 

 

Our domestic insurance subsidiaries are subject to SAP. Any changes in the method of calculating reserves for our life insurance and annuity products under SAP, such as the finalization of principles-based reserving, may result in increased reserve requirements.

 

Anti-takeover provisions could delay, deter or prevent our change in control, even if the change in control would be beneficial to LNC shareholders.

 

We are an Indiana corporation subject to Indiana state law.  Certain provisions of Indiana law could interfere with or restrict takeover bids or other change in control events affecting us.  Also, provisions in our articles of incorporation, bylaws and other agreements to which we are a party could delay, deter or prevent our change in control, even if a change in control would be beneficial to shareholders.  In addition, under Indiana law, directors may, in considering the best interests of a corporation, consider the effects of any action on shareholders, employees, suppliers and customers of the corporation and the communities in which offices and other facilities are located, and other factors the directors consider pertinent.  One statutory provision prohibits, except under specified circumstances, LNC from engaging in any business combination with any shareholder who owns 10% or more of our common stock (which shareholder, under the statute, would be considered an “interested shareholder”) for a period of five years following the time that such shareholder became an interested shareholder, unless such business combination is approved by the board of directors prior to such person becoming an

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interested shareholder.  In addition, our articles of incorporation contain a provision requiring holders of at least three-fourths of our voting shares then outstanding and entitled to vote at an election of directors, voting together, to approve a transaction with an interested shareholder rather than the simple majority required under Indiana law, unless certain price thresholds are met.

 

In addition to the anti-takeover provisions of Indiana law, there are other factors that may delay, deter or prevent our change in control. As an insurance holding company, we are regulated as an insurance holding company and are subject to the insurance holding company acts of the states in which our insurance company subsidiaries are domiciled.  The insurance holding company acts and regulations restrict the ability of any person to obtain control of an insurance company without prior regulatory approval.  Under those statutes and regulations, without such approval (or an exemption), no person may acquire any voting security of a domestic insurance company, or an insurance holding company which controls an insurance company, or merge with such a holding company, if as a result of such transaction such person would “control” the insurance holding company or insurance company. “Control” is generally defined as the direct or indirect power to direct or cause the direction of the management and policies of a person and is presumed to exist if a person directly or indirectly owns or controls 10% or more of the voting securities of another person.

 

Market Conditions

 

Weak conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally may materially adversely affect our business and results of operations.

 

Our results of operations are materially affected by conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally, both in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world. Continued unconventional easing from the major central banks, slowing of global growth, continued impact of falling global energy and other commodity prices, and the ability of the U.S. government to proactively address the fiscal imbalance remain key challenges for markets and our business.  These macro-economic conditions may have an adverse effect on us given our credit and equity market exposure.  In the event of extreme prolonged market events, such as the global credit crisis and recession that occurred during 2008 and 2009, we could incur significant losses. Even in the absence of a market downturn, we are exposed to substantial risk of loss due to market volatility.

 

Factors such as consumer spending, business investment, domestic and foreign government spending, the volatility and strength of the capital markets, the potential for inflation or deflation and uncertainty over domestic and foreign government actions all affect the business and economic environment and, ultimately, the amount and profitability of our business.  In an economic downturn characterized by higher unemployment, lower disposable income, lower corporate earnings, lower business investment and lower consumer spending, the demand for our financial and insurance products could be adversely affected. In addition, we may experience an elevated incidence of claims and lapses or surrenders of policies.  Our contract holders may choose to defer paying insurance premiums or stop paying insurance premiums altogether.  Adverse changes in the economy could affect earnings negatively and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

 

Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals.

 

Interest rate fluctuations and/or a sustained period of low interest rates could negatively affect our profitability.  Some of our products, principally fixed annuities and UL, including IUL and linked-benefit UL, have interest rate guarantees that expose us to the risk that changes in interest rates will reduce our spread, or the difference between the amounts that we are required to pay under the contracts and the amounts we are able to earn on our general account investments intended to support our obligations under the contracts.  Spreads are an important component of our net income.  Declines in our spread or instances where the returns on our general account investments are not enough to support the interest rate guarantees on these products could have a material adverse effect on our businesses or results of operations.  In addition, low rates increase the cost of providing variable annuity living benefit guarantees, which could negatively affect our variable annuity profitability.

 

In periods when interest rates are declining or remain at low levels, we may have to reinvest the cash we receive as interest or return of principal on our investments in lower yielding instruments reducing our spread.  Moreover, borrowers may prepay fixed-income securities, commercial mortgages and mortgage-backed securities in our general account in order to borrow at lower market rates, which exacerbates this risk.  Lowering interest crediting rates helps to mitigate the effect of spread compression on some of our products.  However, because we are entitled to reset the interest rates on our fixed-rate annuities only at limited, pre-established intervals, and since many of our contracts have guaranteed minimum interest or crediting rates, our spreads could still decrease.  As of December 31, 2015, 40% of our annuities business, 93% of our retirement plan services business and 96% of our life insurance business with guaranteed minimum interest or crediting rates are at their guaranteed minimums.

 

Our expectation for future spreads is an important component in the amortization of DAC and value of business acquired (“VOBA”) as it affects the future profitability of the business.   Currently, new money rates continue to be at historically low levels. The Federal Reserve Board forecasts point toward short-term rates likely moving towards or slightly above 1% at the end of 2016.  As a result of the low interest environment, we lowered our long-term new money investment yield assumption and recorded an unfavorable unlocking during 2015, which was most pronounced in the Life Insurance segment.  We cannot give assurance that persistent low interest rates will not result in future negative unlockings. For additional information on interest rate risks, see “Part II – Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk.”

 

A decline in market interest rates could also reduce our return on investments that do not support particular policy obligations.  During periods of sustained lower interest rates, our recorded policy liabilities may not be sufficient to meet future policy obligations and may

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need to be strengthened, thereby reducing net income in the affected reporting period.  Accordingly, declining interest rates may materially affect our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows and significantly reduce our profitability.

 

Increases in market interest rates may also negatively affect our profitability.  In periods of rapidly increasing interest rates, we may not be able to replace the assets in our general account with higher yielding assets needed to fund the higher crediting rates necessary to keep our interest-sensitive products competitive.  We, therefore, may have to accept a lower spread and thus lower profitability or face a decline in sales and greater loss of existing contracts and related assets.  Increases in interest rates may cause increased surrenders and withdrawals of insurance products. In periods of increasing interest rates, policy loans and surrenders and withdrawals of life insurance policies and annuity contracts may increase as contract holders seek to buy products with perceived higher returns.  This process may lead to a flow of cash out of our businesses.  These outflows may require investment assets to be sold at a time when the prices of those assets are lower because of the increase in market interest rates, which may result in realized investment losses.  A sudden demand among consumers to change product types or withdraw funds could lead us to sell assets at a loss to meet the demand for funds.  Furthermore, unanticipated increases in withdrawals and termination may cause us to unlock our DAC and VOBA assets, which would reduce net income.  An increase in market interest rates could also have a material adverse effect on the value of our investment portfolio, for example, by decreasing the estimated fair values of the fixed-income securities that comprise a substantial portion of our investment portfolio.  An increase in interest rates could also result in decreased fee income associated with a decline in the value of variable annuity account balances invested in fixed-income funds.

 

Because the equity markets and other factors impact the profitability and expected profitability of many of our products, changes in equity markets and other factors may significantly affect our business and profitability.

 

The fee income that we earn on variable annuities and VUL insurance policies is based primarily upon account values.  Because strong equity markets result in higher account values, strong equity markets positively affect our net income through increased fee income.   Conversely, a weakening of the equity markets results in lower fee income and may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and capital resources.

 

The increased fee income resulting from strong equity markets increases the estimated gross profits (“EGPs”) from variable insurance products as do better than expected lapses, mortality rates and expenses.  As a result, higher EGPs may result in lower net amortized costs related to DAC, deferred sales inducements (“DSI”), VOBA, deferred front-end loads (“DFEL”) and changes in future contract benefits.  However, a decrease in the equity markets, as well as worse than expected increases in lapses, mortality rates and expenses, depending upon their significance, may result in higher net amortized costs associated with DAC, DSI, VOBA, DFEL and changes in future contract benefits and may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and capital resources. If we had unlocked our reversion to the mean (“RTM”) assumption in the corridor as of December 31, 2015, we would have recorded favorable unlocking of approximately $145 million, pre-tax, for our Annuities segment, approximately $20 million, pre-tax, for our Retirement Plan Services segment and approximately $15 million, pre-tax, for our Life Insurance segment.  For further information about our RTM process, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL – Reversion to the Mean” in the MD&A.

 

Changes in the equity markets, interest rates and/or volatility affect the profitability of our products with guaranteed benefits; therefore, such changes may have a material adverse effect on our business and profitability.

 

Certain of our variable annuity products include optional guaranteed benefit riders.  These include GDB, GWB and GIB riders.  Our GWB, GIB and 4LATER® (a form of GIB rider) features have elements of both insurance benefits accounted for under the Financial Services – Insurance – Claim Costs and Liabilities for Future Policy Benefits Subtopic of the FASB ASC (“benefit reserves”) and embedded derivatives accounted for under the Derivatives and Hedging and the Fair Value Measurements and Disclosures Topics of the FASB ASC (“embedded derivative reserves”).  We calculate the value of the embedded derivative reserve and the benefit reserves based on the specific characteristics of each guaranteed living benefit feature.  The amount of reserves related to GDB for variable annuities is related to the difference between the value of the underlying accounts and the GDB, calculated using a benefit ratio approach.  The GDB reserves take into account the present value of total expected GDB payments, the present value of total expected GDB assessments over the life of the contract, claims paid to date and assessments to date. Reserves for our GIB and certain GWB with lifetime benefits are based on a combination of fair value of the underlying benefit and a benefit ratio approach.   The benefit ratio approach takes into account, among other things, the present value of expected GIB payments, the present value of total expected GIB assessments over the life of the contract, claims paid to date and assessments to date.  The amount of reserves related to those GWB that do not have lifetime benefits is based on the fair value of the underlying benefit.

 

Both the level of expected payments and expected total assessments used in calculating the benefit reserves are affected by the equity markets.  The liabilities related to fair value are impacted by changes in equity markets, interest rates, volatility, foreign exchange rates and credit spreads.  Accordingly, strong equity markets, increases in interest rates and decreases in volatility will generally decrease the reserves calculated using fair value.  Conversely, a decrease in the equity markets along with a decrease in interest rates and an increase in volatility will generally result in an increase in the reserves calculated using fair value.

 

Increases in reserves would result in a charge to our earnings in the quarter in which the increase occurs.  Therefore, we maintain a customized dynamic hedge program that is designed to mitigate the risks associated with income volatility around the change in reserves on guaranteed benefits.  However, the hedge positions may not be effective to exactly offset the changes in the carrying value of the guarantees due to, among other things, the time lag between changes in their values and corresponding changes in the hedge positions, high levels of volatility in the equity markets and derivatives markets, extreme swings in interest rates, contract holder behavior different

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than expected, a strategic decision to adjust the hedging strategy in reaction to extreme market conditions or inconsistencies between economic and statutory reserving guidelines and divergence between the performance of the underlying funds and hedging indices.

 

In addition, we remain liable for the guaranteed benefits in the event that derivative or reinsurance counterparties are unable or unwilling to pay, and we are also subject to the risk that the cost of hedging these guaranteed benefits increases, resulting in a reduction to net income.  These, individually or collectively, may have a material adverse effect on net income, financial condition or liquidity.

 

Liquidity and Capital Position

 

Adverse capital and credit market conditions may affect our ability to meet liquidity needs, access to capital and cost of capital.

 

We need liquidity to pay our operating expenses, interest on our debt and dividends on our capital stock, to maintain our securities lending activities and to replace certain maturing liabilities.  Without sufficient liquidity, we will be forced to curtail our operations, and our business will suffer.  When considering our liquidity and capital position, it is important to distinguish between the needs of our insurance subsidiaries and the needs of the holding company.

 

For our insurance and other subsidiaries, the principal sources of liquidity are insurance premiums and fees, annuity considerations and cash flow from our investment portfolio and assets, consisting mainly of cash or assets that are readily convertible into cash.

 

In the event that current resources do not satisfy our needs, we may have to seek additional financing.  The availability of additional financing will depend on a variety of factors such as market conditions, the general availability of credit, the volume of trading activities, the overall availability of credit to the financial services industry, our credit ratings and credit capacity, as well as the possibility that customers or lenders could develop a negative perception of our long- or short-term financial prospects if we incur large investment losses or if the level of our business activity decreases due to a market downturn.  Similarly, our access to funds may be impaired if regulatory authorities or rating agencies take negative actions against us.  See “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Liquidity and Capital Resources – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow” in the MD&A for a description of our credit ratings.  Our internal sources of liquidity may prove to be insufficient, and in such case, we may not be able to successfully obtain additional financing on favorable terms, or at all.

 

Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the capital and credit markets may also limit our access to capital required to operate our business, most significantly our insurance operations.  Such market conditions may limit our ability to replace, in a timely manner, maturing liabilities; satisfy statutory capital requirements; generate fee income and market-related revenue to meet liquidity needs; and access the capital necessary to grow our business.  As such, we may be forced to delay raising capital, issue shorter term securities than we prefer or bear an unattractive cost of capital which could decrease our profitability and significantly reduce our financial flexibility. Our results of operations, financial condition, cash flows and statutory capital position could be materially adversely affected by disruptions in the financial markets.

 

Because we are a holding company with no direct operations, the inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends to us in sufficient amounts would harm our ability to meet our obligations.

 

We are a holding company and we have no direct operations.  Our principal asset is the capital stock of our insurance subsidiaries.  Our ability to meet our obligations for payment of interest and principal on outstanding debt obligations and to pay dividends to shareholders, repurchase our securities and pay corporate expenses depends primarily on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends or to advance or repay funds to us.  Under Indiana laws and regulations, our Indiana insurance subsidiaries, including LNL, our primary insurance subsidiary, may pay dividends to us without prior approval of the Commissioner up to a certain threshold, or must receive prior approval of the Commissioner to pay a dividend if such dividend, along with all other dividends paid within the preceding 12 consecutive months, exceed the statutory limitation.  The current Indiana statutory limitation is the greater of 10% of the insurer’s contract holders’ surplus, as shown on its last annual statement on file with the Commissioner, or the insurer’s statutory net gain from operations for the previous 12 months, but in no event to exceed statutory unassigned surplus.

 

In addition, payments of dividends and advances or repayment of funds to us by our insurance subsidiaries are restricted by the applicable laws of their respective jurisdictions requiring that our insurance subsidiaries hold a specified amount of minimum reserves in order to meet future obligations on their outstanding policies.  These regulations specify that the minimum reserves shall be calculated to be sufficient to meet future obligations, after giving consideration to future required premiums to be received, and are based on certain specified mortality and morbidity tables, interest rates and methods of valuation, which are subject to change.  In order to meet their claims-paying obligations, our insurance subsidiaries regularly monitor their reserves to ensure we hold sufficient amounts to cover actual or expected contract and claims payments.  At times, we may determine that reserves in excess of the minimum may be needed to ensure sufficiency.

 

Changes in, or reinterpretations of, these laws can constrain the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends or to advance or repay funds to us in sufficient amounts and at times necessary to meet our debt obligations and corporate expenses.  Requiring our insurance subsidiaries to hold additional reserves has the potential to constrain their ability to pay dividends to the holding company. See “Legislative, Regulatory and Tax – Attempts to mitigate the impact of Regulation XXX and Actuarial Guideline 38 may fail in whole or in part resulting in an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations” above for additional information on potential changes in these laws.

 

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The earnings of our insurance subsidiaries impact contract holders’ surplus.  Lower earnings constrain the growth in our insurance subsidiaries’ capital, and therefore, can constrain the payment of dividends and advances or repayment of funds to us. 

 

In addition, the amount of surplus that our insurance subsidiaries could pay as dividends is constrained by the amount of surplus they hold to maintain their financial strength ratings, to provide an additional layer of margin for risk protection and for future investment in our businesses.  Notwithstanding the foregoing, we believe that our insurance subsidiaries have sufficient liquidity to meet their contract holder obligations and maintain their operations.

 

A decrease in the capital and surplus of our insurance subsidiaries may result in a downgrade to our credit and insurer financial strength ratings.

 

In any particular year, statutory surplus amounts and RBC ratios may increase or decrease depending on a variety of factors, including the amount of statutory income or losses generated by our insurance subsidiaries (which itself is sensitive to equity market and credit market conditions), the amount of additional capital our insurance subsidiaries must hold to support business growth, changes in reserving requirements, such as principles-based reserving, our inability to obtain reserve relief, changes in equity market levels, the value of certain fixed-income and equity securities in our investment portfolio, the value of certain derivative instruments that do not get hedge accounting treatment, changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, as well as changes to the NAIC RBC formulas.  The RBC ratio is also affected by the product mix of the in-force book of business (i.e., the amount of business without guarantees is not subject to the same level of reserves as the business with guarantees).  Most of these factors are outside of our control. Our credit and insurer financial strength ratings are significantly influenced by the statutory surplus amounts and RBC ratios of our insurance company subsidiaries.  The RBC ratio of LNL is an important factor in the determination of the credit and financial strength ratings of LNC and its subsidiaries.  In addition, rating agencies may implement changes to their internal models that have the effect of increasing or decreasing the amount of statutory capital we must hold in order to maintain our current ratings.  In extreme scenarios of equity market declines, the amount of additional statutory reserves that we are required to hold for our variable annuity guarantees may increase at a rate greater than the rate of change of the markets.  Increases in reserves reduce the statutory surplus used in calculating our RBC ratios.  To the extent that our statutory capital resources are deemed to be insufficient to maintain a particular rating by one or more rating agencies, we may seek to raise additional capital through public or private equity or debt financing, which may be on terms not as favorable as in the past.

 

Alternatively, if we were not to raise additional capital in such a scenario, either at our discretion or because we were unable to do so, our financial strength and credit ratings might be downgraded by one or more rating agencies.  For more information on risks regarding our ratings, see “Covenants and Ratings – A downgrade in our financial strength or credit ratings could limit our ability to market products, increase the number or value of policies being surrendered and/or hurt our relationships with creditors” below.

 

An inability to access our credit facilities could result in a reduction in our liquidity and lead to downgrades in our credit and financial strength ratings.

 

We have a $2.5 billion unsecured facility, which expires on May 29, 2018.  We also have other facilities that we enter into in the ordinary course of business.  See “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Liquidity and Capital Resources – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow – Financing Activities” in the MD&A and Note 12.

 

We rely on our credit facilities as a potential source of liquidity.  We also use the credit facility as a potential backstop to provide variable annuity statutory reserve credit.  While our variable annuity hedge assets have normally exceeded the statutory reserves, in certain severely stressed market conditions, it is possible that the hedge assets could be less than the statutory reserve.  Our credit facility is available to provide reserve credit to LNL in such a case.  If we were unable to access our facility in such circumstances, it could materially impact LNL’s capital position.    The availability of these facilities could be critical to our credit and financial strength ratings and our ability to meet our obligations as they come due in a market when alternative sources of credit are tight.  The credit facilities contain certain administrative, reporting, legal and financial covenants.  We must comply with covenants under our credit facilities, including a requirement to maintain a specified minimum consolidated net worth.

 

Our right to borrow funds under these facilities is subject to the fulfillment of certain important conditions, including our compliance with all covenants, and our ability to borrow under these facilities is also subject to the continued willingness and ability of the lenders that are parties to the facilities to provide funds.  Our failure to comply with the covenants in the credit facilities or fulfill the conditions to borrowings, or the failure of lenders to fund their lending commitments (whether due to insolvency, illiquidity or other reasons) in the amounts provided for under the terms of the facilities, would restrict our ability to access these credit facilities when needed and, consequently, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

 

Assumptions and Estimates

 

As a result of changes in assumptions, estimates and methods in calculating reserves, our reserves for future policy benefits and claims related to our current and future business as well as businesses we may acquire in the future may prove to be inadequate.

 

We establish and carry, as a liability, reserves based on estimates of how much we will need to pay for future benefits and claims.    For our insurance products, we calculate these reserves based on many assumptions and estimates, including, but not limited to, estimated premiums we will receive over the assumed life of the policies, the timing of the events covered by the insurance policies, the lapse rate of the policies, the amount of benefits or claims to be paid and the investment returns on the assets we purchase with the premiums we receive.

 

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The sensitivity of our statutory reserves and surplus established for our variable annuity base contracts and riders to changes in the equity markets will vary depending on the magnitude of the decline.  The sensitivity will be affected by the level of account values relative to the level of guaranteed amounts, product design and reinsurance.  Statutory reserves for variable annuities depend upon the cumulative equity market impacts on the business in force, and therefore, result in non-linear relationships with respect to the level of equity market performance within any reporting period.

 

The assumptions and estimates we use in connection with establishing and carrying our reserves are inherently uncertain.  Accordingly, we cannot determine with precision the ultimate amount or the timing of the payment of actual benefits and claims or whether the assets supporting the policy liabilities will grow to the level we assume prior to payment of benefits or claims.  If our actual experience is different from our assumptions or estimates, our reserves may prove to be inadequate in relation to our estimated future benefits and claims. Increases in reserves have a negative effect on income from operations in the quarter incurred.

 

If our businesses do not perform well and/or their estimated fair values decline or the price of our common stock does not increase, we may be required to recognize an impairment of our goodwill or to establish a valuation allowance against the deferred income tax asset, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

 

Goodwill represents the excess of the acquisition price incurred to acquire subsidiaries and other businesses over the fair value of their net assets as of the date of acquisition. As of December 31, 2015, we had a total of $2.3 billion of goodwill on our Consolidated Balance Sheets.  We test goodwill at least annually for indications of value impairment with consideration given to financial performance, mergers and acquisitions and other relevant factors.  In addition, certain events, including a significant and adverse change in legal factors, accounting standards or the business climate, an adverse action or assessment by a regulator or unanticipated competition, would cause us to review the carrying amounts of goodwill for impairment.  Impairment testing is performed based upon estimates of the fair value of the “reporting unit” to which the goodwill relates.  Subsequent reviews of goodwill could result in an impairment of goodwill, and such write downs could have a material adverse effect on our net income and book value, but will not affect the statutory capital of our insurance subsidiaries. For more information on goodwill, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets” in the MD&A and Note 10.

 

Deferred income tax represents the tax effect of the differences between the book and tax basis of assets and liabilities.  Deferred tax assets are assessed periodically by management to determine if they are realizable.  As of December 31, 2015, we had a deferred tax asset of $1.7 billion.  Factors in management’s determination include the performance of the business, including the ability to generate capital gains from a variety of sources and tax planning strategies.  If, based on available information, it is more likely than not that the deferred income tax asset will not be realized, then a valuation allowance must be established with a corresponding charge to net income.  Such valuation allowance could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

 

The determination of the amount of allowances and impairments taken on our investments is highly subjective and could materially impact our results of operations or financial condition.

 

The determination of the amount of allowances and impairments varies by investment type and is based upon our periodic evaluation and assessment of known and inherent risks associated with the respective asset class.  Such evaluations and assessments are revised as conditions change and new information becomes available.  Management updates its evaluations regularly and reflects changes in allowances and impairments in operations as such evaluations are revised.  There can be no assurance that our management has accurately assessed the level of impairments taken and allowances reflected in our financial statements.  Furthermore, additional impairments may need to be taken or allowances provided for in the future.  Historical trends may not be indicative of future impairments or allowances.

 

We regularly review our available-for-sale (“AFS”) securities for declines in fair value that we determine to be other-than-temporary.  For an equity security, if we do not have the ability and intent to hold the security for a sufficient period of time to allow for a recovery in value, we conclude that an other-than-temporary impairment (“OTTI”) has occurred, and the amortized cost of the equity security is written down to the current fair value, with a corresponding change to realized gain (loss) on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss).  When assessing our ability and intent to hold the equity security to recovery, we consider, among other things, the severity and duration of the decline in fair value of the equity security as well as the cause of decline, a fundamental analysis of the liquidity, business prospects and overall financial condition of the issuer.

 

For a debt security, if we intend to sell a security or it is more likely than not we will be required to sell a debt security before recovery of its amortized cost basis and the fair value of the debt security is below amortized cost, we conclude that an OTTI has occurred and the amortized cost is written down to current fair value, with a corresponding charge to realized loss on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss).  If we do not intend to sell a debt security or it is not more likely than not we will be required to sell a debt security before recovery of its amortized cost basis but the present value of the cash flows expected to be collected is less than the amortized cost of the debt security (referred to as the credit loss), we conclude that an OTTI has occurred and the amortized cost is written down to the estimated recovery value with a corresponding charge to realized loss on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss), as this is also deemed the credit portion of the OTTI. The remainder of the decline to fair value is recorded in other comprehensive income (loss) (“OCI”) to unrealized OTTI on AFS securities on our Consolidated Statements of Stockholders’ Equity, as this is considered a noncredit (i.e., recoverable) impairment. 

 

Related to our unrealized losses, we establish deferred tax assets for the tax benefit we may receive in the event that losses are realized.  The realization of significant realized losses could result in an inability to recover the tax benefits and may result in the establishment of

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valuation allowances against our deferred tax assets.  Realized losses or impairments may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.

 

Our valuation of fixed maturity, equity and trading securities may include methodologies, estimations and assumptions which are subject to differing interpretations and could result in changes to investment valuations that may materially adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition.

 

Fixed maturity, equity and trading securities and short-term investments, which are reported at fair value on our Consolidated Balance Sheets, represented the majority of our total cash and invested assets.  We have categorized these securities into a three-level hierarchy, based on the priority of the inputs to the respective valuation technique.  The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities (Level 1) and the lowest priority to unobservable inputs (Level 3).

 

The determination of fair values in the absence of quoted market prices is based on valuation methodologies, securities we deem to be comparable and assumptions deemed appropriate given the circumstances.  The fair value estimates are made at a specific point in time, based on available market information and judgments about financial instruments, including estimates of the timing and amounts of expected future cash flows and the credit standing of the issuer or counterparty.  Factors considered in estimating fair value include coupon rate, maturity, estimated duration, call provisions, sinking fund requirements, credit rating, industry sector of the issuer and quoted market prices of comparable securities.  The use of different methodologies and assumptions may have a material effect on the estimated fair value amounts.

 

During periods of market disruption, including periods of significantly increasing/decreasing or high/low interest rates, rapidly widening credit spreads or illiquidity, it may be difficult to value certain securities if trading becomes less frequent and/or market data becomes less observable.  There may be certain asset classes that were in active markets with significant observable data that become illiquid due to the current financial environment.  In such cases, more securities may fall to Level 3 and thus require more subjectivity and management judgment. As such, valuations may include inputs and assumptions that are less observable or require greater estimation, as well as valuation methods which are more sophisticated or require greater estimation, thereby resulting in values which may be less than the value at which the investments may be ultimately sold.  Further, rapidly changing and unprecedented credit and equity market conditions could materially impact the valuation of securities as reported within our consolidated financial statements and the period-to-period changes in value could vary significantly.  Decreases in value may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition.

 

Significant adverse mortality experience may result in the loss of, or higher prices for, reinsurance.

 

We reinsure a significant amount of the mortality risk on fully underwritten, newly issued, individual life insurance contracts.  We regularly review retention limits for continued appropriateness and they may be changed in the future.  If we were to experience adverse mortality or morbidity experience, a significant portion of that would be reimbursed by our reinsurers.  Prolonged or severe adverse mortality or morbidity experience could result in increased reinsurance costs, and ultimately, reinsurers being unwilling to offer coverage.  If we are unable to maintain our current level of reinsurance or purchase new reinsurance protection at comparable rates to what we are paying currently, we may have to accept an increase in our net exposures or revise our pricing to reflect higher reinsurance premiums or both. If this were to occur, we may be exposed to reduced profitability and cash flow strain or we may not be able to price new business at competitive rates.

 

Catastrophes may adversely impact liabilities for contract holder claims.

 

Our insurance operations are exposed to the risk of catastrophic mortality, such as a pandemic, an act of terrorism, natural disaster or other event that causes a large number of deaths or injuries.  Significant influenza pandemics have occurred three times in the last century, but the likelihood, timing or severity of a future pandemic cannot be predicted. Additionally, the impact of climate change could cause changes in weather patterns, resulting in more severe and more frequent natural disasters such as forest fires, hurricanes, tornados, floods and storm surges.  In our group insurance operations, a localized event that affects the workplace of one or more of our group insurance customers could cause a significant loss due to mortality or morbidity claims.  These events could cause a material adverse effect on our results of operations in any period and, depending on their severity, could also materially and adversely affect our financial condition.

 The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in the area affected by the event and the severity of the event.  Pandemics, natural disasters and man-made catastrophes, including terrorism, may produce significant damage in larger areas, especially those that are heavily populated.  Claims resulting from natural or man-made catastrophic events could cause substantial volatility in our financial results for any fiscal quarter or year and could materially reduce our profitability or harm our financial condition.  Also, catastrophic events could harm the financial condition of our reinsurers and thereby increase the probability of default on reinsurance recoveries.  Accordingly, our ability to write new business could also be affected.

 

Consistent with industry practice and accounting standards, we establish liabilities for claims arising from a catastrophe only after assessing the probable losses arising from the event.  We cannot be certain that the liabilities we have established or applicable reinsurance will be adequate to cover actual claim liabilities, and a catastrophic event or multiple catastrophic events could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

 

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Operational Matters

 

Our enterprise risk management policies and procedures may leave us exposed to unidentified or unanticipated risk, which could negatively affect our businesses or result in losses.

 

We have devoted significant resources to develop our enterprise risk management policies and procedures and expect to continue to do so in the future.  Nonetheless, our policies and procedures to identify, monitor and manage risks may not be fully effective.  Many of our methods of managing risk and exposures are based upon our use of observed historical market behavior or statistics based on historical models.  As a result, these methods may not predict future exposures, which could be significantly greater than the historical measures indicate, such as the risk of pandemics causing a large number of deaths.  Other risk management methods depend upon the evaluation of information regarding markets, clients, catastrophe occurrence or other matters that is publicly available or otherwise accessible to us, which may not always be accurate, complete, up-to-date or properly evaluated.  Management of operational, legal and regulatory risks requires, among other things, policies and procedures to record properly and verify a large number of transactions and events, and these policies and procedures may not be fully effective.

 

We face risks of non-collectability of reinsurance and increased reinsurance rates, which could materially affect our results of operations.

 

We follow the insurance practice of reinsuring with other insurance and reinsurance companies a portion of the risks under the policies written by our insurance subsidiaries (known as “ceding”).  As of December 31, 2015, we ceded $287.4 billion of life insurance in force to reinsurers for reinsurance protection.  Although reinsurance does not discharge our subsidiaries from their primary obligation to pay contract holders for losses insured under the policies we issue, reinsurance does make the assuming reinsurer liable to the insurance subsidiaries for the reinsured portion of the risk. As of December 31, 2015, we had $5.6 billion of reinsurance receivables from reinsurers for paid and unpaid losses, for which they are obligated to reimburse us under our reinsurance contracts.  Of this amount, $2.4 billion related to the sale of our reinsurance business to Swiss Re in 2001 through an indemnity reinsurance agreement.  Swiss Re has funded a trust to support this business.  The balance in the trust changes as a result of ongoing reinsurance activity and was $2.6 billion as of December 31, 2015.  Furthermore, $634 million of the Swiss Re treaties are funds withheld structures where we have a right of offset on assets backing the reinsurance receivables.

 

The balance of the reinsurance is due from a diverse group of reinsurers.  The collectability of reinsurance is largely a function of the solvency of the individual reinsurers.  We perform annual credit reviews on our reinsurers, focusing on, among other things, financial capacity, stability, trends and commitment to the reinsurance business.  We also require assets in trust, LOCs or other acceptable collateral to support balances due from reinsurers not authorized to transact business in the applicable jurisdictions.  Despite these measures, a reinsurer’s insolvency, inability or unwillingness to make payments under the terms of a reinsurance contract, especially Swiss Re, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

 

Reinsurers also may attempt to increase rates with respect to our existing reinsurance arrangements.  The ability of our reinsurers to increase rates depends upon the terms of each reinsurance contract.  An increase in reinsurance rates may affect the profitability of our insurance business.

 

Competition for our employees is intense, and we may not be able to attract and retain the highly skilled people we need to support our business.

 

Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to attract and retain key people.  Intense competition exists for the key employees with demonstrated ability, and we may be unable to hire or retain such employees.  The unexpected loss of services of one or more of our key personnel could have a material adverse effect on our operations due to their skills, knowledge of our business, their years of industry experience and the potential difficulty of promptly finding qualified replacement employees.  We compete with other financial institutions primarily on the basis of our products, compensation, support services and financial condition.  Sales in our businesses and our results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected if we are unsuccessful in attracting and retaining key employees, including financial advisors, wholesalers and other employees, as well as independent distributors of our products.

 

We may not be able to protect our intellectual property and may be subject to infringement claims.

 

We rely on a combination of contractual rights and copyright, trademark, patent and trade secret laws to establish and protect our intellectual property.  Although we use a broad range of measures to protect our intellectual property rights, third parties may infringe or misappropriate our intellectual property.  We may have to litigate to enforce and protect our copyrights, trademarks, patents, trade secrets and know-how or to determine their scope, validity or enforceability, which represents a diversion of resources that may be significant in amount and may not prove successful.  Additionally, complex legal and factual determinations and evolving laws and court interpretations make the scope of protection afforded our intellectual property uncertain, particularly in relation to our patents.  While we believe our patents provide us with a competitive advantage, we cannot be certain that any issued patents will be interpreted with sufficient breadth to offer meaningful protection.  In addition, our issued patents may be successfully challenged, invalidated, circumvented or found unenforceable so that our patent rights would not create an effective competitive barrier.  The loss of intellectual property protection or the inability to secure or enforce the protection of our intellectual property assets could have a material adverse effect on our business and our ability to compete.

 

We also may be subject to costly litigation in the event that another party alleges our operations or activities infringe upon another party’s intellectual property rights.  Third parties may have, or may eventually be issued, patents that could be infringed by our products, methods, processes or services.  Any party that holds such a patent could make a claim of infringement against us.  We may also be

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subject to claims by third parties for breach of copyright, trademark, trade secret or license usage rights. Any such claims and any resulting litigation could result in significant liability for damages.  If we were found to have infringed a third-party patent or other intellectual property rights, we could incur substantial liability, and in some circumstances could be enjoined from providing certain products or services to our customers or utilizing and benefiting from certain methods, processes, copyrights, trademarks, trade secrets or licenses, or alternatively could be required to enter into costly licensing arrangements with third parties, all of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

 

Our information systems may experience interruptions or breaches in security and a failure of disaster recovery systems could result in a loss or disclosure of confidential information, damage to our reputation and impairment of our ability to conduct business effectively.

 

Our information systems are critical to the operation of our business.  We collect, process, maintain, retain and distribute large amounts of personal financial and health information and other confidential and sensitive data about our customers in the ordinary course of our business.  Our business therefore depends on our customers’ willingness to entrust us with their personal information.  Any failure, interruption or breach in security could result in disruptions to our critical systems and adversely affect our customer relationships.  Although hackers have attempted and continue to try to infiltrate our computer systems, to date, we have not had a material security breach.  While we employ a robust and tested information security program, there can be no assurance that any such failure, interruption or security breach will not occur or, if any does occur, that it can be sufficiently remediated. 

 

In the event of a disaster such as a natural catastrophe, epidemic, industrial accident, blackout, computer virus, terrorist attack, cyberattack or war, unanticipated problems with our disaster recovery systems could have a material adverse impact on our ability to conduct business and on our results of operations and financial position, particularly if those problems affect our computer-based data processing, transmission, storage and retrieval systems and destroy valuable data. In addition, in the event that a significant number of our managers were unavailable following a disaster, our ability to effectively conduct business could be severely compromised. These interruptions also may interfere with our suppliers’ ability to provide goods and services and our employees’ ability to perform their job responsibilities.

 

The failure of our computer systems and/or our disaster recovery plans for any reason could cause significant interruptions in our operations and result in a failure to maintain the security, confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data, including personal information relating to our customers.  The occurrence of any such failure, interruption or security breach of our systems could damage our reputation, result in a loss of customer business, subject us to additional regulatory scrutiny, or expose us to civil litigation and financial liability.

 

Although we conduct due diligence, negotiate contractual provisions and, in many cases, conduct periodic reviews of our vendors, distributors, and other third parties that provide operational or information technology services to us to confirm compliance with our information security standards, the failure of such third parties’ computer systems and/or their disaster recovery plans for any reason might cause significant interruptions in our operations and result in a failure to maintain the security, confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data, including personal information relating to our customers. Such a failure could harm our reputation, subject us to regulatory sanctions and legal claims, lead to a loss of customers and revenues and otherwise adversely affect our business and financial results. While we maintain cyber liability insurance that provides both third-party liability and first party liability coverages, our insurance may not be sufficient to protect us against all losses. 

 

Covenants and Ratings

 

A downgrade in our financial strength or credit ratings could limit our ability to market products, increase the number or value of policies being surrendered and/or hurt our relationships with creditors.

 

Nationally recognized rating agencies rate the financial strength of our principal insurance subsidiaries and rate our debt.  Ratings are not recommendations to buy our securities.  Each of the rating agencies reviews its ratings periodically, and our current ratings may not be maintained in the future.

 

Our financial strength ratings, which are intended to measure our ability to meet contract holder obligations, are an important factor affecting public confidence in most of our products and, as a result, our competitiveness.  A downgrade of the financial strength rating of one of our principal insurance subsidiaries could affect our competitive position in the insurance industry by making it more difficult for us to market our products as potential customers may select companies with higher financial strength ratings and by leading to increased withdrawals by current customers seeking companies with higher financial strength ratings.  This could lead to a decrease in fees as net outflows of assets increase, and therefore, result in lower fee income.  Furthermore, sales of assets to meet customer withdrawal demands could also result in losses, depending on market conditions.  The interest rates we pay on our borrowings are largely dependent on our credit ratings.  A downgrade of our debt ratings could affect our ability to raise additional debt, including bank lines of credit, with terms and conditions similar to our current debt, and accordingly, likely increase our cost of capital.

 

All of our ratings and ratings of our principal insurance subsidiaries are subject to revision or withdrawal at any time by the rating agencies, and therefore, no assurance can be given that our principal insurance subsidiaries or we can maintain these ratings.  See “Item 1. Business – Financial Strength Ratings” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow”  in the MD&A for a description of our ratings.

 

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We will be required to pay interest on our capital securities with proceeds from the issuance of qualifying securities if we fail to achieve capital adequacy or net income and stockholders’ equity levels.

 

As of December  31, 2015, we had approximately $1.2 billion in principal amount of capital securities outstanding.  All of the capital securities contain covenants that require us to make interest payments in accordance with an alternative coupon satisfaction mechanism (“ACSM”) if we determine that one of the following triggers exists as of the 30th day prior to an interest payment date, or the “determination date”:

 

 

2.    (i) The sum of our consolidated net income for the four trailing fiscal quarters ending on the quarter that is two quarters prior to the most recently completed quarter prior to the determination date is zero or negative, and (ii) our consolidated stockholders’ equity (excluding accumulated OCI and any increase in stockholders’ equity resulting from the issuance of preferred stock during a quarter), or “adjusted stockholders’ equity,” as of (x) the most recently completed quarter and (y) the end of the quarter that is two quarters before the most recently completed quarter, has declined by 10% or more as compared to the quarter that is ten fiscal quarters prior to the last completed quarter, or the “benchmark quarter.”

 

The ACSM would generally require us to use commercially reasonable efforts to satisfy our obligation to pay interest in full on the capital securities with the net proceeds from sales of our common stock and warrants to purchase our common stock with an exercise price greater than the market price.  We would have to utilize the ACSM until the trigger events above no longer existed, and, in the case of test 2 above, until our adjusted stockholders’ equity amount increased or declined by less than 10% as compared to the adjusted stockholders’ equity at the end of the benchmark quarter for each interest payment date as to which interest payment restrictions were imposed by test 2 above.

 

If we were required to utilize the ACSM and were successful in selling sufficient shares of common stock or warrants to satisfy the interest payment, we would dilute the current holders of our common stock.  Furthermore, while a trigger event is occurring and if we do not pay accrued interest in full, we may not, among other things, pay dividends on or repurchase our capital stock.  Our failure to pay interest pursuant to the ACSM will not result in an event of default with respect to the capital securities, nor will a nonpayment of interest, unless it lasts for ten consecutive years, although such breaches may result in monetary damages to the holders of the capital securities.

 

The calculations of RBC, net income (loss) and adjusted stockholders’ equity are subject to adjustments and the capital securities are subject to additional terms and conditions as further described in supplemental indentures filed as exhibits to our Forms 8-K filed on March 13, 2007, and  May 17, 2006.

 

Certain blocks of our insurance business purchased from third-party insurers under indemnity reinsurance agreements may require us to place assets in trust, secure letters of credit or return the business, if the financial strength ratings and/or capital ratios of certain insurance subsidiaries are not maintained at specified levels.

 

Under certain indemnity reinsurance agreements, two of our insurance subsidiaries, LNL and LLANY, provide 100% indemnity reinsurance for the business assumed; however, the third-party insurer, or the “cedent,” remains primarily liable on the underlying insurance business.  Under these types of agreements, as of December 31, 2015, we held statutory reserves of $6.2 billion.  These indemnity reinsurance arrangements require that our subsidiary, as the reinsurer, maintain certain insurer financial strength ratings and capital ratios.  If these ratings or capital ratios are not maintained, depending upon the reinsurance agreement, the cedent may recapture the business, or require us to place assets in trust or provide LOCs at least equal to the relevant statutory reserves.  Under the LNL reinsurance arrangement, we held approximately $3.6 billion of statutory reserves.  LNL must maintain an A.M. Best financial strength rating of at least B++, an S&P financial strength rating of at least BBB- and a Moody’s financial strength rating of at least Baa3.  This arrangement may require LNL to place assets in trust equal to the relevant statutory reserves.  Under LLANY’s largest indemnity reinsurance arrangement, we held approximately $1.8 billion of statutory reserves as of December 31, 2015.  LLANY must maintain an A.M. Best financial strength rating of at least B+, an S&P financial strength rating of at least BB+ and a Moody’s financial strength rating of at least Ba1, as well as maintain an RBC ratio of at least 160% or an S&P capital adequacy ratio of 100%, or the cedent may recapture the business.  Under two other LLANY arrangements, by which we established $790 million of statutory reserves, LLANY must maintain an A.M. Best financial strength rating of at least B++, an S&P financial strength rating of at least BBB- and a Moody’s financial strength rating of at least Baa3.  One of these arrangements also requires LLANY to maintain an RBC ratio of at least 185% or an S&P capital adequacy ratio of 115%.  Each of these arrangements may require LLANY to place assets in trust equal to the relevant statutory reserves. As of December 31, 2015, LNL’s and LLANY’s RBC ratios exceeded the required ratio.  See “Item 1. Business – Financial Strength Ratings” for a description of our financial strength ratings.

 

If the cedent recaptured the business, LNL and LLANY would be required to release reserves and transfer assets to the cedent.  Such a recapture could adversely impact our future profits.  Alternatively, if LNL and LLANY established a security trust for the cedent, the ability to transfer assets out of the trust could be severely restricted, thus negatively impacting our liquidity.

 

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Investments

 

Some of our investments are relatively illiquid and are in asset classes that have been experiencing significant market valuation fluctuations.

 

We hold certain investments that may lack liquidity, such as privately placed fixed maturity securities, mortgage loans, policy loans and other limited partnership interests.  These asset classes represented 25% of the carrying value of our total cash and invested assets as of December 31, 2015.

 

If we require significant amounts of cash on short notice in excess of normal cash requirements or are required to post or return collateral in connection with our investment portfolio, derivatives transactions or securities lending activities, we may have difficulty selling these investments in a timely manner, be forced to sell them for less than we otherwise would have been able to realize, or both.

 

The reported value of our relatively illiquid types of investments, our investments in the asset classes described in the paragraph above and, at times, our high quality, generally liquid asset classes, do not necessarily reflect the lowest current market price for the asset.  If we were forced to sell certain of our assets in the current market, there can be no assurance that we would be able to sell them for the prices at which we have recorded them, and we might be forced to sell them at significantly lower prices.

 

We invest a portion of our invested assets in investment funds, many of which make private equity investments.  The amount and timing of income from such investment funds tends to be uneven as a result of the performance of the underlying investments, including private equity investments.  The timing of distributions from the funds, which depends on particular events relating to the underlying investments, as well as the funds’ schedules for making distributions and their needs for cash, can be difficult to predict.  As a result, the amount of income that we record from these investments can vary substantially from quarter to quarter. 

 

Defaults on our mortgage loans and write downs of mortgage equity may adversely affect our profitability.

 

Our mortgage loans face default risk and are principally collateralized by commercial properties.  The performance of our mortgage loan investments may fluctuate in the future. In addition, some of our mortgage loan investments have balloon payment maturities.  An increase in the default rate of our mortgage loan investments could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

 

Further, any geographic or sector exposure in our mortgage loans may have adverse effects on our investment portfolios and consequently on our consolidated results of operations or financial condition.  While we seek to mitigate this risk by having a broadly diversified portfolio, events or developments that have a negative effect on any particular geographic region or sector may have a greater adverse effect on the investment portfolios to the extent that the portfolios are exposed.

 

The difficulties faced by other financial institutions could adversely affect us.

 

We have exposure to many different industries and counterparties, and routinely execute transactions with counterparties in the financial services industry, including brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks and other institutions.  Many of these transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparty. In addition, with respect to secured transactions, our credit risk may be exacerbated when the collateral held by us cannot be realized upon or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivative exposure due to it.  We also may have exposure to these financial institutions in the form of unsecured debt instruments, derivative transactions and/or equity investments.  These parties may default on their obligations to us due to bankruptcy, lack of liquidity, downturns in the economy or real estate values, operational failure, corporate governance issues or other reasons. A downturn in the U.S. and other economies could result in increased impairments.  There can be no assurance that any such losses or impairments to the carrying value of these assets would not materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations.

 

Our requirements to post collateral or make payments related to declines in market value of specified assets may adversely affect our liquidity and expose us to counterparty credit risk.

 

Many of our transactions with financial and other institutions, including settling futures positions, specify the circumstances under which the parties are required to post collateral.  The amount of collateral we may be required to post under these agreements may increase under certain circumstances, which could adversely affect our liquidity.  In addition, under the terms of some of our transactions, we may be required to make payments to our counterparties related to any decline in the market value of the specified assets.

 

Our investments are reflected within our consolidated financial statements utilizing different accounting bases, and, accordingly, there may be significant differences between cost and fair value that are not recorded in our consolidated financial statements.

 

Our principal investments are in fixed maturity and equity securities, mortgage loans on real estate, policy loans, short-term investments, derivative instruments, limited partnerships and other invested assets.  The carrying value of such investments is as follows:

 

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Investments not carried at fair value on our consolidated financial statements, principally, mortgage loans, policy loans and real estate, may have fair values that are substantially higher or lower than the carrying value reflected on our consolidated financial statements.  In addition, unrealized losses are not reflected in net income unless we realize the losses by either selling the security at below amortized cost or determine that the decline in fair value is deemed to be other-than-temporary (i.e., impaired).  Each of such asset classes is regularly evaluated for impairment under the accounting guidance appropriate to the respective asset class.

 

Competition

 

Intense competition could negatively affect our ability to maintain or increase our profitability.

 

Our businesses are intensely competitive.  We compete based on a number of factors, including name recognition, service, the quality of investment advice, investment performance, product features, price, perceived financial strength and claims-paying and credit ratings.  Our competitors include insurers, broker-dealers, financial advisors, asset managers, hedge funds and other financial institutions.  A number of our business units face competitors that have greater market share, offer a broader range of products or have higher financial strength or credit ratings than we do.

 

In recent years, there has been consolidation and convergence among companies in the financial services industry resulting in increased competition from large, well-capitalized financial services firms.  Many of these firms also have been able to increase their distribution systems through mergers or contractual arrangements.  Furthermore, larger competitors may have lower operating costs and an ability to absorb greater risk while maintaining their financial strength ratings, thereby allowing them to price their products more competitively.  

 

Our sales representatives are not captive and may sell products of our competitors.

 

We sell our annuity and life insurance products through independent sales representatives.  These representatives are not captive, which means they may also sell our competitors’ products.  If our competitors offer products that are more attractive than ours, or pay higher commission rates to the sales representatives than we do, these representatives may concentrate their efforts in selling our competitors’ products instead of ours.

 

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Item 1B.  Unresolved Staff Comments

 

None.

 

Item 2.  Properties

 

As of December 31, 2015, LNC and our subsidiaries owned or leased approximately 2.7  million square feet of office and other space.  We leased 0.1 million square feet of office space in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania which includes space for LFN.  We leased 0.2 million square feet of office space in Radnor, Pennsylvania for our corporate center and for LFD.  We owned or leased 0.8 million square feet of office space in Fort Wayne, Indiana, primarily for our Annuities and Retirement Plan Services segments.  We owned or leased 0.8 million square feet of office space in Greensboro, North Carolina, primarily for our Life Insurance segment.  We owned or leased 0.3 million square feet of office space in Omaha, Nebraska, and 0.2 million square feet of office space in Atlanta, Georgia, primarily for our Group Protection segment.  An additional 0.3 million square feet of office space is owned or leased in other U.S. cities for branch offices.  As provided in Note 13, the rental expense on operating leases for office space and equipment was $42 million for 2015.  This discussion regarding properties does not include information on investment properties.

 

Item 3.  Legal Proceedings

 

For information regarding legal proceedings, see “Regulatory and Litigation Matters” in Note 13, which is incorporated herein by reference.

 

Item 4.  Mine Safety Disclosures

 

Not applicable.

 

 

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Executive Officers of the Registrant

 

Executive Officers of the Registrant as of February 18, 2016, were as follows:

 

 

 

(1)Age shown is based on the officer’s age as of February 18, 2016.

(2)Denotes an affiliate of LNC.

 

 

 

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PART II

 

Item 5.  Market for Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities

 

(a)    Stock Market and Dividend Information

 

Our common stock is traded on the New York stock exchange under the symbol LNC.  As of February 18, 2016, the number of shareholders of record of our common stock was 7,897.  The dividend on our common stock is declared each quarter by our Board of Directors if we are eligible to pay dividends and the Board determines that we will pay dividends.  In determining dividends, the Board takes into consideration items such as our financial condition, including current and expected earnings, projected cash flows and anticipated financing needs.  For potential restrictions on our ability to pay dividends, see “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Liquidity and Capital Resources” and Note 19 in the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements presented in “Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” as well as in “Part I – Item 1. Business – Regulatory – Insurance Regulation – Restrictions on Subsidiaries’ Dividends and Other Payments.”  The following presents the high and low prices for our common stock on the New York Stock Exchange during the periods indicated and the dividends declared per share during such periods:

 

 

 

For information on securities authorized for issuance under equity compensation plans, see “Part III – Item 12. Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters,” which is incorporated herein by reference. 

 

(b)    Not Applicable

 

(c)    Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities

 

The following summarizes purchases of equity securities by the issuer during the quarter ended December 31, 2015 (dollars in millions, except per share data):

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Item 6.  Selected Financial Data

 

The following selected financial data (in millions, except per share data) should be read in conjunction with “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements presented in “Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.”

 

 

 

 

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Item 7.  Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

 

The following Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) is intended to help the reader understand the financial condition as of December 31, 2015, compared with December 31, 2014, and the results of operations in 2015 and 2014, compared with the immediately preceding year of Lincoln National Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries.  Unless otherwise stated or the context otherwise requires, “LNC,” “Company,” “we,” “our” or “us” refers to Lincoln National Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries.  The MD&A is provided as a supplement to, and should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements (“Notes”) presented in “Part II – Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” as well as “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” above.  

 

In this report, in addition to providing consolidated revenues and net income (loss), we also provide segment operating revenues and income (loss) from operations because we believe they are meaningful measures of revenues and the profitability of our operating segments.  Financial information that follows is presented in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”), unless otherwise indicated.  See Note 1 for a discussion of GAAP.

 

Operating revenues and income (loss) from operations are the financial performance measures we use to evaluate and assess the results of our segments.  Accordingly, we define and report operating revenues and income (loss) from operations by segment in Note 21.  Our management believes that operating revenues and income (loss) from operations explain the results of our ongoing businesses in a manner that allows for a better understanding of the underlying trends in our current businesses because the excluded items are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of current operating fundamentals or future performance of the business segments, and, in many instances, decisions regarding these items do not necessarily relate to the operations of the individual segments.  In addition, we believe that our definitions of operating revenues and income (loss) from operations will provide investors with a more valuable measure of our performance because it better reveals trends in our business.

 

Certain reclassifications have been made to prior periods’ financial information.    

 

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS –  CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE

 

Certain statements made in this report and in other written or oral statements made by us or on our behalf are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PSLRA”).  A forward-looking statement is a statement that is not a historical fact and, without limitation, includes any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words like:  “believe,” “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “project,” “will,” “shall” and other words or phrases with similar meaning in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance.  In particular, these include statements relating to future actions, trends in our businesses, prospective services or products, future performance or financial results and the outcome of contingencies, such as legal proceedings.  We claim the protection afforded by the safe harbor for forward-looking statements provided by the PSLRA.

 

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results contained in the forward-looking statements.  Risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to vary materially, some of which are described within the forward-looking statements, include, among others: 

 

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The risks included here are not exhaustive.  Other sections of this report, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) include additional factors that could affect our businesses and financial performance, including “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk,” which are incorporated herein by reference.  Moreover, we operate in a rapidly changing and competitive environment.  New risk factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for management to predict all such risk factors.

 

Further, it is not possible to assess the effect of all risk factors on our businesses or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.  Given these risks and uncertainties, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results.  In addition, we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date of this report. 

 

INTRODUCTION

 

Executive Summary

 

We are a holding company that operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses through subsidiary companies.  Through our business segments, we sell a wide range of wealth protection, accumulation and retirement income products and solutions.  These products include fixed and indexed annuities, variable annuities, universal life insurance (“UL”), variable universal life insurance (“VUL”), linked-benefit UL, indexed universal life insurance (“IUL”), term life insurance, employer-sponsored retirement plans and services, and group life, disability and dental.

 

We provide products and services and report results through our Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance and Group Protection segments.  We also have Other Operations.  These segments and Other Operations are described in “Part I – Item 1. Business” above.    

 

For information on how we derive our revenues, see the discussion in results of operations by segment below.

 

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Industry Trends

 

We continue to be influenced by a variety of trends that affect the industry.

 

Financial and Economic Environment

 

The level of long-term interest rates and the shape of the yield curve can have a negative effect on the demand for and the profitability of spread-based products such as fixed annuities and UL.  Low long-term rates can also increase the cost of providing variable annuity living benefit guarantees.  A flat or inverted yield curve and low long-term interest rates are affecting new money rates on corporate bonds.    Equity market performance can also affect the profitability of life insurers, as product demand and fee income from variable annuities and fee income from pension products tied to separate account balances often reflect equity market performance.  Insurance premium growth, with respect to group life and disability products, for example, is closely tied to employers’ total payroll growth.  Additionally, the potential market for these products is expanded by new business creation. 

 

Although improvements in certain market conditions occurred during 2015,  concerns about global growth and rising concerns around credit markets are weighing on continued economic recovery and financial stability.

 

The Federal Reserve’s forecast for 2016, as reported in December of 2015, indicated that economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace, labor market indicators will continue to strengthen, and inflation will remain below its target of 2%.  Additionally, the Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds Target Rate by 25 basis points in December 2015 for the first time in almost 10 years and indicated that any future rate increases would be gradual and data dependent.

       

Regulatory Environment

 

U.S.-domiciled insurance entities are regulated at the state level, while certain products and services are also subject to federal regulation. Regulators may refine capital requirements and introduce new reserving standards for the life insurance industry.  Regulations recently adopted or currently under review can potentially affect the capital requirements and profitability of the industry and result in increased regulation and oversight for the industry.  Recently, there has been significant focus on the DOL’s proposed regulation defining fiduciary, which has the potential of requiring us to change the way we deliver products and services and could impact the sales or margins of some of our products, especially variable annuities.  We believe that, if necessary, Lincoln can pivot to other products that are not adversely affected by the proposed DOL rule, and if there is a sales disruption, can reallocate capital to share buybacks to blunt the effect on earnings per share.  The final rule from the DOL is expected to be issued in the first half of 2016.  See “Part I – Item 1. Business – Regulatory” for a discussion of the potential effects of regulatory changes on our industry.

 

Demographics

 

In the coming decade, a key driver shaping the actions of the insurance industry will be the escalation of income protection and wealth accumulation goals and needs of the retiring baby-boomers.  As a result of increasing longevity, retirees will need to accumulate sufficient savings to finance retirements that may span 30 or more years.  Helping the baby-boomers to accumulate assets for retirement and subsequently to convert these assets into retirement income represents an opportunity for the insurance industry.

 

Moreover, the insurance industry’s products, and the needs they are designed to address, are complex.  We believe that individuals approaching retirement age will need to seek information to plan for and manage their retirements.  In the workplace, as employees take greater responsibility for their benefit options and retirement planning, they will need information about their possible individual needs.  One of the challenges for the insurance industry will be the delivery of this information in a cost effective manner.

 

Competitive Environment

 

See the “Competition” sections for each of our segments in “Part 1 – Business – Business Segments and Other Operations” for discussion of the competitive environment in which we operate.

 

Significant Operational Matters 

 

Improvement of Return on Equity

 

One of our highest priorities continues to be increasing our return on equity (“ROE”) and targeted earnings per share growth of 8-10%.  Drivers of growing ROE include:    

 

 

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Sources of Earnings

 

We monitor our sources of earnings as a factor in managing our businesses.  This information may be useful in determining opportunities for improving overall profitability.  We are focused on achieving our long-term goal of increasing mortality and morbidity margins.  Growth in this source of earnings component could be driven by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, pricing actions on our life and group non-medical products and acquiring blocks of mortality/morbidity business.  The following table presents the sources of earnings components of income (loss) from operations, before income taxes, excluding Other Operations:

 

 

 

See Note 21 for additional information on income (loss) from operations by segment.

 

Interest Rate Risk

 

Because the profitability of our business depends in part on interest rate spreads, interest rate fluctuations could negatively affect our profitability.  Changes in interest rates may reduce both our profitability from spread businesses and our return on invested capital.  Thus, low interest rates negatively impact margins while rapidly rising interest rates can result in increased surrenders.  Gradually rising interest rates are likely to be beneficial to our profitability.  Some of our products, principally our fixed annuities and UL, including IUL and linked-benefit UL, have interest rate guarantees that expose us to the risk that changes in interest rates or prolonged low interest rates will reduce our spread, or the difference between the interest that we are required to credit to contracts and the yields that we are able to earn on our general account investments supporting our obligations under the contracts. 

 

As part of our third quarter 2015 annual comprehensive review of the assumptions and projection models underlying the amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI, DFEL, embedded derivatives and reserves for life insurance and annuity products, we lowered our long-term new money investment yield assumption to reflect the current new money rates and lower anticipated future interest rates.  For more information on our annual comprehensive review, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL – Unlocking” below. 

 

Although we have been proactive in our investment strategies, product designs, crediting rate strategies and overall asset-liability practices to mitigate the risk of unfavorable consequences in this type of environment, declines in our spread, or instances where the returns on our general account investments are not enough to support the interest rate guarantees on these products, could have an adverse effect on some of our businesses or results of operations.  We have provided disclosures around interest rate spreads and interest rate risk in “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals” and “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk.”

 

Variable Annuity Hedge Program Performance

 

We offer variable annuity products with living benefit guarantees.  As described below in “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Derivatives – GLB,” we use derivative instruments to hedge our exposure to the risks and earnings volatility that result from the guaranteed living benefit (“GLB”) embedded derivatives and benefit ratio unlocking in certain of our variable annuity products.  The income statement effect due to the change in fair value of these instruments tends to move in the opposite direction of the change in embedded derivative reserves and benefit ratio unlocking.  We also use derivative instruments to hedge the income statement effect in the opposite direction of the GLB benefit ratio unlocking for movements in equity markets.  These results are excluded from the Annuities and Retirement Plan Services segments’ operating revenues and income (loss) from operations.  See “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking – Variable Annuity Net Derivatives Results” below for information on our methodology for calculating the non-performance risk (“NPR”), which affects the discount rate used in the calculation of the GLB embedded derivative reserves.

 

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We also offer variable annuity products with death benefit guarantees.  As described below in “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Future Contract Benefits and Other Contract Holder Obligations – GDB,” we use derivative instruments to hedge the income statement effect of the guaranteed death benefit (“GDB”) benefit ratio unlocking for movements in equity markets.  These results are excluded from income (loss) from operations.

 

The costs of derivative instruments that we use to hedge these variable annuity products may increase as a result of the low interest rate environment.

 

Earnings from Account Values

 

The Annuities and Retirement Plan Services segments are the most sensitive to the equity markets, as well as, to a lesser extent, our Life Insurance segment.  We discuss the earnings effect of the equity markets on account values and the related asset-based earnings below in “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Equity Market Risk – Effect of Equity Market Sensitivity.”  Account values increased $1.6 billion during 2015 driven primarily by positive net flows and an increase in equity markets.    

 

Strategic Investments

 

We continue to make strategic investments in our businesses to grow revenues, further spur productivity and improve our efficiency and service to our customers.  These efforts include investments in technology and system upgrades and infrastructure efficiencies. 

 

Issues and Outlook

 

Going into 2016, significant issues include:

 

 

In the face of these issues and potential issues, we expect to focus on the following:

 

 

For additional factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

 

We have identified the accounting policies below as critical to the understanding of our results of operations and our financial condition.  In applying these critical accounting policies in preparing our financial statements, management must use critical assumptions, estimates and judgments concerning future results or other developments, including the likelihood, timing or amount of one or more future events.  Actual results may differ from these estimates under different assumptions or conditions.  On an ongoing basis, we evaluate our assumptions, estimates and judgments based upon historical experience and various other information that we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances.  For a detailed discussion of other significant accounting policies, see Note 1.

 

DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL

 

Accounting for intangible assets requires numerous assumptions, such as estimates of expected future profitability for our operations and our ability to retain existing blocks of life and annuity business in force.  Our accounting policies for DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL affect the Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance and Group Protection segments. 

 

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Deferrals

 

Qualifying deferrable acquisition expenses are recorded as an asset on our Consolidated Balance Sheets as DAC for products we sold during a period or VOBA for books of business we acquired during a period.  In addition, we defer costs associated with DSI and revenues associated with DFEL.  DSI increases interest credited and reduces income when amortized.  DFEL is a liability included within other contract holder funds on our Consolidated Balance Sheets, and when amortized, increases fee income on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss). 

 

We incur certain costs that can be capitalized in the acquisition of insurance contracts.  Only those costs incurred that result directly from and are essential to the successful acquisition of new or renewal insurance contracts may be capitalized as deferrable acquisition costs.  This determination of deferability must be made on a contract-level basis.  Some examples of acquisition costs that are subject to deferral include the following:

 

 

All other acquisition-related costs, including costs incurred by the insurer for soliciting potential customers, market research, training, administration, management of distribution and underwriting functions, unsuccessful acquisition or renewal efforts and product development, are considered non-deferrable acquisition costs and must be expensed in the period incurred. 

 

In addition, the following indirect costs are considered non-deferrable acquisition costs and must be charged to expense in the period incurred: 

 

 

Our DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL balances (in millions) by business segment as of December 31, 2015, were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Available-for-sale (“AFS”) securities and certain derivatives are stated at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included within accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) (“AOCI”), net of associated DAC, VOBA, DSI, future contract benefits, other contract holder funds and deferred income taxes.  The unrealized balances in the table above represent the DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL balances for these effects of unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities and certain derivatives.

 

 

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Amortization

 

Deferrable acquisition costs for variable annuity and deferred fixed annuity contracts and UL and VUL policies are amortized over the lives of the contracts in relation to the incidence of EGPs derived from the contracts.  Certain broker commissions or broker-dealer expenses that vary with and are related to sales of mutual fund products, respectively, are expensed as incurred rather than deferred and amortized.  For our traditional products, we amortize deferrable acquisition costs either on a straight-line basis or as a level percent of premium of the related contracts, depending on the block of business. 

 

EGPs vary based on a number of sources including policy persistency, mortality, fee income, investment margins, expense margins and realized gains and losses on investments, including assumptions about the expected level of credit-related losses.  Each of these sources of profit is, in turn, driven by other factors.  For example, assets under management and the spread between earned and credited rates drive investment margins; net amount at risk drives the level of cost of insurance charges and reinsurance premiums.  The level of separate account assets under management is driven by changes in the financial markets (equity and bond markets, hereafter referred to collectively as “equity markets”) and net flows.  Realized gains and losses on investments include amounts resulting from differences in the actual level of impairments and the levels assumed in calculating EGPs.

 

We generally amortize DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL in proportion to our EGPs for interest-sensitive products.  When actual gross profits are higher in the period than EGPs, we recognize more amortization than planned.  When actual gross profits are lower in the period than EGPs, we recognize less amortization than planned.  In a calendar year where the gross profits for a certain group of policies, or “cohorts,” are negative, our actuarial process limits, or floors, the amortization expense offset to zero.  

 

For a discussion of the periods over which we amortize our DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL see “DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL” in Note 1.

 

Unlocking

 

As discussed and defined in “DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL” in Note 1, we conduct our annual comprehensive review of the assumptions and projection models underlying the amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI, DFEL, embedded derivatives and reserves for life insurance and annuity products in the third quarter of each year.  We may have unlocking in other quarters as we become aware of information that warrants updating assumptions outside of our annual comprehensive review. 

 

For illustrative purposes, the following generally presents the hypothetical effects to net income (loss) attributable to changes in assumptions from those our model projections assume, assuming all other factors remain constant:

 

 

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Details underlying the effect to income (loss) from continuing operations from unlocking (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Unlocking was driven primarily by the following:

 

2015

 

As part of our annual comprehensive review in the third quarter, we lowered our long-term new money investment yield assumption to reflect the current new money rates and lower anticipated future interest rates.  This reduction in the interest rate assumption resulted in resetting the path of new money investment rates, reflecting a gradual annual recovery over five years to a rate 50 basis points below our prior ultimate long-term assumption.  As a result of lowering the ultimate long-term assumption 50 basis points, we recorded unfavorable unlocking of $118 million, after-tax, for Life Insurance, $2 million, after-tax, for Annuities, and $1 million, after-tax, for Retirement Plan Services.

 

 

2014

 

 

2013

 

Reversion to the Mean

 

Because returns within the variable sub-accounts (“variable funds”) have a significant effect on the value of variable annuity and VUL products and the fees earned on these accounts, EGPs could increase or decrease with movements in variable fund returns; therefore, significant and sustained changes in variable funds have had and could in the future have an effect on DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL amortization for our variable annuity, annuity-based 401(k) and VUL businesses.

 

As variable fund returns do not move in a systematic manner, we reset the baseline of account values from which EGPs are projected, which we refer to as our reversion to the mean (“RTM”) process.  Under our RTM process, on each valuation date, future EGPs are projected using stochastic modeling of a large number of market scenarios in conjunction with best estimates of lapse rates, interest rate spreads and mortality to develop a statistical distribution of the present value of future EGPs for our variable annuity, annuity-based 401(k) and VUL blocks of business.  Because variable fund returns are unpredictable, the underlying premise of this process is that best

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estimate projections of future EGPs need not be affected by random short-term and insignificant deviations from expectations in variable fund returns.  However, long-term or significant deviations from expected variable fund returns require a change to best estimate projections of EGPs and unlocking of DAC, VOBA, DSI, DFEL and changes in future contract benefits.  The statistical distribution is designed to identify when the deviations from expected returns have become significant enough to warrant a change of the future variable fund growth rate assumption. 

 

The stochastic modeling performed for our variable annuity blocks of business as described above is used to develop a range of reasonably possible future EGPs.  We compare the range of the present value of the future EGPs from the stochastic modeling to that used in our amortization model.  A set of intervals around the mean of these scenarios is utilized to calculate two separate statistical ranges of reasonably possible EGPs.  These intervals are then compared to the present value of the EGPs used in the amortization model.  If the present value of EGPs utilized for amortization were to exceed the reasonable range of statistically calculated EGPs, a revision of the EGPs used to calculate amortization would be considered.  If a revision is deemed necessary, future EGPs would be re-projected using the current account values at the end of the period during which the revision occurred along with a long-term variable fund growth rate assumption such that the re-projected EGPs would be our best estimate of EGPs.

 

Our practice is not necessarily to unlock immediately after exceeding the first of the two statistical ranges, but, rather, if we stay between the first and second statistical range for several quarters, we would likely unlock.  Additionally, if we exceed the ranges as a result of a short-term market reaction, we would not necessarily unlock.  However, if the second statistical range is exceeded for more than one quarter, it is likely that we would unlock.  While this approach reduces adjustments to DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL due to short-term fluctuations, significant changes in variable fund returns that extend beyond one or two quarters could result in a significant favorable or unfavorable unlocking.

 

Notwithstanding these intervals, if a severe decline or increase in variable fund values were to occur or should other circumstances suggest that the present value of future EGPs no longer represents our best estimate, we could determine that a revision of the EGPs is necessary.

 

Our long-term variable fund growth rate assumption, which is used in the determination of DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL amortization for the variable component of our variable annuity and VUL products, is an immediate drop of approximately 2% followed by growth going forward of 7% to 8.5% depending on the block of business and reflecting differences in contract holder fund allocations between fixed-income and equity-type investments.  If we had unlocked our RTM assumption as of December 31, 2015, we would have recorded a favorable unlocking of approximately $145 million, pre-tax, for Annuities, approximately $20 million, pre-tax, for Retirement Plan Services, and approximately $15 million, pre-tax, for Life Insurance.  The significant decline in these amounts during 2015 was primarily attributable to a decline in capital markets. 

 

Investments

 

Invested assets are an integral part of our operations, and we invest in fixed maturity and equity securities that are primarily classified as available-for-sale and carried at fair value with the difference from amortized cost included in stockholders’ equity as a component of AOCI.  See “Consolidated Investments” below for more information. 

 

Investment Valuation

 

Our measurement of fair value is based on assumptions used by market participants in pricing the asset or liability, which may include inherent risk, restrictions on the sale or use of an asset or NPR, which would include our own credit risk.  Our estimate of an exchange price is the price in an orderly transaction between market participants to sell the asset or transfer the liability (“exit price”) in the principal market, or the most advantageous market in the absence of a principal market, for that asset or liability, as opposed to the price that would be paid to acquire the asset or receive a liability (“entry price”).  We categorize our financial instruments carried at fair value into a three-level fair value hierarchy, based on the priority of inputs to the respective valuation technique.  The three-level hierarchy for fair value measurement is defined in Note 1. 

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The following summarizes our AFS and trading securities and derivative investments carried at fair value by pricing source and fair value hierarchy level (in millions) as of December 31, 2015:

 

 

 

 

For the categories and associated fair value of our AFS fixed maturity securities classified within Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, see Notes 1 and 20. 

 

Our investments are valued using the appropriate market inputs based on the investment type, and include benchmark yields, reported trades, broker-dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers and reference data.  In addition, market indicators and industry and economic events are monitored, and further market data is acquired if certain triggers are met.  We incorporate the issuer’s credit rating and a risk premium, if warranted, given the issuer’s industry and the security’s time to maturity.  We use an internationally recognized pricing service as our primary pricing source, and we do not adjust prices received from third parties or obtain multiple prices when measuring the fair value of our investments.  We generally use prices from the pricing service rather than broker quotes because we have documentation from the pricing service on the observable market inputs they use, as compared to the limited information on the pricing inputs from broker quotes.  For private placement securities, we use pricing matrices that utilize observable pricing inputs of similar public securities and Treasury yields as inputs to the fair value measurement.  It is possible that different valuation techniques and models, other than those described above, could produce materially different estimates of fair value. 

 

When the volume and level of activity for an asset or liability has significantly decreased in relation to normal market activity for the asset or liability, we believe that the market is not active.  Activities that may indicate a market is not active include fewer recent transactions in the market, price quotations that lack current information and/or vary substantially over time or among market makers, limited public information, uncorrelated indexes with recent fair values of assets and abnormally wide bid-ask spread.  As of December 31, 2015, we evaluated the markets that our securities trade in and concluded that none were inactive.  We will continue to re-evaluate this conclusion, as needed, based on market conditions.

 

We use unobservable inputs to measure the fair value of securities trading in less liquid or illiquid markets with limited or no pricing information.  We obtain broker quotes for securities such as synthetic convertibles, index-linked certificates of deposit and collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”) when sufficient security structure or other market information is not available to produce an evaluation.  For broker-quoted only securities, non-binding quotes from market makers or broker-dealers are obtained from sources recognized as market participants.  Broker-quoted securities are based solely on receipt of updated quotes from a single market maker or a broker-dealer recognized as a market participant.  Our broker-quoted only securities are generally classified as Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.  As of December 31, 2015, we used broker quotes for 83 securities as our final price source, representing approximately 1% of total securities owned.

 

In order to validate the pricing information and broker quotes, we employ, where possible, procedures that include comparisons with similar observable positions, comparisons with subsequent sales and observations of general market movements for those security classes.  Our primary third-party pricing service has policies and processes to ensure that it is using objectively verifiable observable market data.  The pricing service regularly reviews the evaluation inputs for securities covered, including broker quotes, executed trades and credit information, as applicable.  If the pricing service determines it does not have sufficient objectively verifiable information about a security’s valuation, it discontinues providing a valuation for the security.  The pricing service regularly publishes and updates a summary of inputs used in its valuations by major security type.  In addition, we have policies and procedures in place to review the process that is utilized by the third-party pricing service and the output that is provided to us by the pricing service.  On a periodic basis, we test the pricing for a sample of securities to evaluate the inputs and assumptions used by the pricing service, and we perform a comparison of the pricing service output to an alternative pricing source.  In addition, we check prices provided by our primary pricing service to ensure that they are not stale or unreasonable by reviewing the prices for unusual changes from period to period based on certain parameters or for lack of change from one period to the next.  If such anomalies in the pricing are observed, we may use pricing information from another pricing source. 

 

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Valuation of Alternative Investments

 

Recognition of investment income on alternative investments is delayed due to the availability of the related financial statements, which are generally obtained from the partnerships’ general partners, as our venture capital, real estate and oil and gas portfolios are generally reported to us on a three-month delay, and our hedge funds are reported to us on a one-month delay.  In addition, the effect of annual audit adjustments related to completion of calendar-year financial statement audits of the investees are typically received during the first or second quarter of each calendar year.  Accordingly, our investment income from alternative investments for any calendar year period may not include the complete effect of the change in the underlying net assets for the partnership for that calendar year period.  Recorded audit adjustments affect our investment income on alternative investments in the period that the adjustments are recorded. 

 

Write-downs for OTTI and Allowance for Losses

 

We regularly review our AFS securities for declines in fair value that we determine to be other-than-temporary.  For additional details, see “Consolidated Investments” below and Notes 1 and 5.

 

For certain securitized fixed maturity securities with contractual cash flows, including asset-backed securities (“ABS”), we use our best estimate of cash flows for the life of the security to determine whether there is an other-than-temporary impairment (“OTTI”) of the security.  In addition, we review for other indicators of impairment as required by the Investments – Debt and Equity Securities Topic of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) Accounting Standards CodificationTM (“ASC”).

 

As the discussion in Notes 1 and 5 indicates, there are risks and uncertainties associated with determining whether declines in the fair value of investments are other-than-temporary.  These include subsequent significant changes in general overall economic conditions, as well as specific business conditions affecting particular issuers, future financial market effects such as interest rate spreads, stability of foreign governments and economies, future rating agency actions and significant accounting, fraud or corporate governance issues that may adversely affect certain investments.  In addition, there are often significant estimates and assumptions that we use to estimate the fair values of securities as described in “Investment Valuation.”  We continually monitor developments and update underlying assumptions and financial models based upon new information.

 

Write-downs and allowances for losses on select mortgage loans, real estate and other investments are established when the underlying value of the property is deemed to be less than the carrying value.  All mortgage loans that are impaired have an established allowance for credit loss.  Changing economic conditions affect our valuation of mortgage loans.  Increasing vacancies, declining rents and the like are incorporated into the discounted cash flow analysis that we perform for monitored loans and may contribute to the establishment of (or an increase in) an allowance for credit losses.  In addition, we continue to monitor the entire commercial mortgage loan portfolio to identify risk.  Areas of emphasis include properties that have deteriorating credits or have experienced debt-service coverage and/or loan-to-value reduction.  Where warranted, we have established or increased loss reserves based upon this analysis.

 

Derivatives

 

We maintain an overall risk management strategy that incorporates the use of derivative instruments to minimize significant unplanned fluctuations in earnings that are caused by interest rate risk, foreign currency exchange risk, equity market risk, default risk, basis risk and credit risk.  Assessing the effectiveness of these hedging programs and evaluating the carrying values of the related derivatives often involve a variety of assumptions and estimates.  Our accounting policies for derivatives and the potential effect on interest spreads in a falling rate environment are discussed in “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk,” Notes 1 and 6.

 

We carry our derivative instruments at fair value, which we determine through valuation techniques or models that use market data inputs or independent broker quotations.  The fair values fluctuate from period to period due to the volatility of the valuation inputs, including but not limited to swap interest rates, interest and equity volatility and equity index levels, foreign currency forward and spot rates, credit spreads and correlations, some of which are significantly affected by economic conditions.  The effect to revenue is reported in realized gain (loss) and such amount along with the associated federal income taxes is excluded from income (loss) from operations of our segments. 

 

Certain of our variable annuity contracts reported within future contract benefits contain embedded derivatives that are carried at fair value on a recurring basis and are all classified as Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy, including our GLB reserves embedded derivatives, a portion of which may be reported in either other assets or other liabilities.  These embedded derivatives are valued based on a stochastic projection of scenarios of the embedded derivative cash flows.  The scenario assumptions, at each valuation date, are those we view to be appropriate for a hypothetical market participant and include assumptions for capital markets, actuarial lapse, benefit utilization, mortality, risk margin, administrative expenses and a margin for profit.  In addition, an NPR component is determined at each valuation date that reflects our risk of not fulfilling the obligations of the underlying liability.  The spread for the NPR is added to the discount rates used in determining the fair value from the net cash flows.  We believe these assumptions are consistent with those that would be used by a market participant; however, as the related markets develop, we will continue to reassess our assumptions.  It is possible that different valuation techniques and assumptions could produce a materially different estimate of fair value. 

 

Changes in the fair value of these embedded derivatives result primarily from changes in market conditions.  For more information, see Notes 1 and 20.

 

 

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GLB

 

We have a dynamic hedging strategy designed to mitigate selected risk and income statement volatility caused by changes in the equity markets, interest rates and market-implied volatilities associated with the Lincoln SmartSecurity® Advantage guaranteed withdrawal benefit (“GWB”) feature and our i4LIFE® Advantage and 4LATER® Advantage guaranteed income benefit (“GIB”) features that are available in our variable annuity products.  We have certain GLB variable annuity products with GWB and GIB features that are embedded derivatives.  Certain features of these guarantees, notably our GIB, 4LATER®, Lincoln Lifetime IncomeSM Advantage and Market SelectSM Advantage features, have elements of both insurance benefits accounted for under the Financial Services – Insurance – Claim Costs and Liabilities for Future Policy Benefits Subtopic of the FASB ASC (“benefit reserves”) and embedded derivative reserves.  We calculate the value of the embedded derivative reserve and the benefit reserve based on the specific characteristics of each GLB feature.  In addition to mitigating selected risk and income statement volatility, the hedge program is also focused on a long-term goal of accumulating assets that could be used to pay claims under these benefits.

 

Changes in the value of the hedge contracts hedge the income statement effect of changes in GLB embedded derivative reserves and benefit reserves.  This dynamic hedging strategy utilizes options and total return swaps on U.S.-based equity indices, and futures on U.S.-based and international equity indices, as well as interest rate futures, interest rate swaps and currency futures.  The notional amounts of the underlying hedge instruments are such that the magnitude of the change in the value of the hedge instruments due to changes in equity markets, interest rates and implied volatilities is designed to offset the magnitude of the change in the GLB embedded derivative reserves and GLB benefit reserves caused by changes in equity markets, as well as the change in GLB embedded derivative reserves caused by changes in interest rates and implied volatilities.  See “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking – Variable Annuity Net Derivatives Results” below for information on how we determine our NPR.

 

As part of our current hedging program, equity market, interest rate and market-implied volatility conditions are monitored on a daily basis.  We rebalance our hedge positions based upon changes in these factors as needed.  While we actively manage our hedge positions, these positions may not completely offset changes in the fair value of embedded derivative reserves and benefit reserves caused by movements in these factors due to, among other things, differences in timing between when a market exposure changes and corresponding changes to the hedge positions, extreme swings in the equity markets, interest rates and market-implied volatilities, realized market volatility, contract holder behavior, divergence between the performance of the underlying funds and the hedging indices, divergence between the actual and expected performance of the hedge instruments or our ability to purchase hedging instruments at prices consistent with our desired risk and return trade-off.  

 

Within our individual annuity business, approximately 67% of our variable annuity account values contained GLB features as of December 31, 2015.  Declines in the equity markets increase our exposure to potential benefits with the GLB features.  Assuming a contract with a GLB feature is “in the money,” a decline in the equity markets would increase our existing liability.  A contract with a GLB feature is “in the money” if the contract holder’s account balance falls below the present value of guaranteed withdrawal or income benefits, assuming no lapses.  As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, 10% and 3%, respectively, of all in-force contracts with a GLB feature were “in the money,” and our exposure, after reinsurance, as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, was $603 million and $279 million, respectively.  However, the only way the contract holder can realize the excess of the present value of benefits over the account value of the contract is through a series of withdrawals or income payments that do not exceed a maximum amount.  If, after the series of withdrawals or income payments, the account value is exhausted, the contract holder will continue to receive a series of annuity payments.  The account value can also fluctuate with equity market returns on a daily basis resulting in increases or decreases in the excess of the present value of benefits over account value.

 

As a result of these factors, the ultimate amount to be paid by us related to GLB guarantees is uncertain and could be significantly more or less than $603 million, net of reinsurance.  Our fair value estimates of the GLB embedded derivatives, which are based on detailed models of future cash flows under a wide range of market-consistent scenarios, reflect a more comprehensive view of the related factors and represent our best estimate of the present value of these potential liabilities.  The market-consistent scenarios used in the determination of the fair value of the GLB embedded derivatives are similar to those used by an investment bank to value derivatives for which the pricing is not transparent and the aftermarket is nonexistent or illiquid.  We use risk-neutral Monte Carlo simulations in our calculation to value the entire block of guarantees, which involve 100 unique scenarios per policy or approximately 49 million scenarios.  The market-consistent scenario assumptions, at each valuation date, are those we view to be appropriate for a hypothetical market participant.  The market-consistent inputs include assumptions for the capital markets (e.g., implied volatilities, correlation among indices, risk-free swap curve, etc.), policyholder behavior (e.g., policy lapse, benefit utilization, mortality, etc.), risk margins, administrative expenses and a margin for profit.  We believe these assumptions are consistent with those that would be used by a market participant; however, as the related markets develop, we will continue to reassess our assumptions.  It is possible that different valuation techniques and assumptions could produce a materially different estimate of fair value.

 

For information on our variable annuity hedge program performance, see our discussion in “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking – Variable Annuity Net Derivatives Results” below.

 

The following table presents our estimates of the potential instantaneous effect to net income, which could result from sudden changes that may occur in equity markets, interest rates and implied market volatilities (in millions) at the levels indicated in the table and excludes the net cost of operating the hedging program.  The amounts represent the estimated difference between the change in the portion of GLB reserves that is calculated on a fair value basis and the change in the value of the underlying hedge instruments after the amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL and taxes.  These effects do not include any estimate of unlocking that could occur, nor do they estimate any change in the NPR component of the GLB reserve or any estimate of effects to our GLB benefit ratio unlocking. 

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These estimates are based upon the recorded reserves as of December 31, 2015, and the related hedge instruments in place as of that date.  The effects presented in the table below are not representative of the aggregate impacts that could result if a combination of such changes to equity market returns, interest rates and implied volatilities occurred.   

 

 

 

The following table shows the effect (dollars in millions) of indicated changes in instantaneous shifts in equity market returns, interest rate scenarios and market-implied volatilities:

 

The actual effects of the results illustrated in the two tables above could vary significantly depending on a variety of factors, many of which are out of our control, and consideration should be given to the following:

 

 

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index® Benefits

 

Our indexed annuity and IUL contracts permit the holder to elect a fixed interest rate return or a return where interest credited to the contracts is linked to the performance of the Standard & Poor’s (“S&P”) 500 Index® (“S&P 500”).  Contract holders may elect to rebalance among the various accounts within the product at renewal dates, either annually or biannually.  At the end of each 1-year or 2-year indexed term we have the opportunity to re-price the indexed component by establishing different participation rates, caps, spreads or specified rates, subject to contractual guarantees.  We purchase S&P 500 options that are highly correlated to the portfolio allocation decisions of our contract holders, such that we are economically hedged with respect to equity returns for the current reset period.  The mark-to-market of the options held generally offsets the change in value of the embedded derivative within the indexed annuity, both of which are recorded as a component of realized gain (loss) on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss).  The Derivatives and Hedging and the Fair Value Measurements and Disclosures Topics of the FASB ASC require that we calculate fair values of index options we may purchase in the future to hedge contract holder index allocations in future reset periods.  These fair values represent an estimate of the cost of the options we will purchase in the future, discounted back to the date of the balance sheet, using current market indicators of volatility and interest rates.  Changes in the fair values of these liabilities are included as a component of realized gain (loss) on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss).  For information on our S&P 500 benefits hedging results, see our discussion in “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking” below.

 

Future Contract Benefits and Other Contract Holder Obligations

 

Reserves

 

Reserves are the amounts that, with the additional premiums to be received and interest thereon compounded annually at certain assumed rates, are calculated to be sufficient to meet the various policy and contract obligations as they mature.  Establishing adequate reserves for our obligations to contract holders requires assumptions to be made regarding mortality and morbidity.  The applicable insurance laws

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under which insurance companies operate require that they report, as liabilities, policy reserves to meet future obligations on their outstanding contracts.  These laws specify that the reserves shall not be less than reserves calculated using certain specified mortality and morbidity tables, interest rates and methods of valuation.

 

The reserves reported in our consolidated financial statements contained herein are calculated in accordance with GAAP and differ from those specified by the laws of the various states and carried in the statutory financial statements of the life insurance subsidiaries.  These differences arise from the use of mortality and morbidity tables, interest, persistency and other assumptions that we believe to be more representative of the expected experience for these contracts than those required for statutory accounting purposes and from differences in actuarial reserving methods. 

 

The assumptions on which reserves are based are intended to represent an estimation of experience for the period that policy benefits are payable.  If actual experience is better than or equal to the assumptions, then reserves should be adequate to provide for future benefits and expenses.  If experience is worse than the assumptions, additional reserves may be required.  This would result in a charge to our net income during the period the increase in reserves occurred.  The key experience assumptions include mortality rates, policy persistency and interest rates.  We periodically review our experience and update our policy reserves for new issues and reserve for all claims incurred, as we believe appropriate.

 

GDB

 

The reserves related to the GDB features available in our variable annuity products are based on the application of a “benefit ratio” (the present value of total expected benefit payments over the life of the contract divided by the present value of total expected assessments over the life of the contract) to total variable annuity assessments received in the period.  The level and direction of the change in reserves will vary over time based on the emergence of the benefit ratio and the level of assessments associated with the variable annuity. 

 

We utilize a delta hedging strategy for variable annuity products with a GDB feature, which uses futures on U.S.-based equity market indices to hedge against movements in equity markets.  The hedging strategy is designed to hedge our exposure to earnings volatility that results from equity market driven changes in the reserve for GDB contracts.  Because the GDB reserves are based upon projected long-term equity market return assumptions, and because the value of the hedging contracts will reflect current capital market conditions, the quarterly changes in values for the GDB reserves and the hedging contracts may not exactly offset each other. 

 

For information on our variable annuity hedge program performance, see our discussion in “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking – Variable Annuity Net Derivatives Results” below.

 

UL Products with Secondary Guarantees

 

We issue UL contracts where we provide a secondary guarantee to the contract holder.  The policy can remain in force, even if the base policy account value is zero, as long as contractual secondary guarantee requirements have been met.  The reserves related to UL products with secondary guarantees are based on the application of a benefit ratio the same as our GDB features, which are discussed above.  The level and direction of the change in reserves will vary over time based on the emergence of the benefit ratio and the level of assessments associated with the contracts.  For more discussion, see “Results of Life Insurance” below. 

 

Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets

 

Goodwill and intangible assets with indefinite lives are not amortized, but are reviewed at least annually by us as of October 1 for indications of value impairment, with consideration given to financial performance and other relevant factors.  Intangibles that do not have indefinite lives are amortized over their estimated useful lives.  We perform a two-step test in our evaluation of the carrying value of goodwill for each of our reporting units, if qualitative factors determine it is necessary to complete the two-step goodwill impairment test.  The results of one test on one reporting unit cannot subsidize the results of another reporting unit.  In Step 1 of the evaluation, the fair value of each reporting unit is determined and compared to the carrying value of the reporting unit.  If the fair value is greater than the carrying value, then the carrying value of the reporting unit is deemed to be recoverable, and Step 2 is not required.  If the fair value estimate is less than the carrying value, it is an indicator that impairment may exist, and Step 2 is required.  In Step 2, the implied fair value of goodwill is determined for the reporting unit.  The reporting unit’s fair value as determined in Step 1 is assigned to all of its net assets (recognized and unrecognized) as if the reporting unit were acquired in a business combination as of the date of the impairment test.  If the implied fair value of the reporting unit’s goodwill is lower than its carrying amount, goodwill is impaired and written down to its fair value. 

 

For the purposes of the evaluation of the carrying value of goodwill, our reporting units (Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance and Group Protection) correspond with our reporting segments.

The fair values of our reporting units are comprised of the value of in-force (i.e., existing) business and the value of new business.  New business is also a fair value input that impacts the calculation of the implied fair value of goodwill.  Specifically, new business is representative of cash flows and profitability associated with policies or contracts we expect to issue in the future, reflecting our forecasts of future sales volume and product mix over a 10-year period.  Factors that could affect production levels and profitability of new business include mix of new business, pricing changes, customer acceptance of our products and distribution strength. 

 

To determine the values of in-force and new business, we use a discounted cash flows technique that applies a discount rate reflecting the market expected, weighted-average rate of return adjusted for the risk factors associated with operations to the projected future cash

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flows for each reporting unit.  Current low interest rates have applied downward pressure to the interest rate inputs used in the discount rate calculation.  Spread compression and related effects to profitability caused by lower interest rates affect the valuation of in-force business more significantly than the valuation of new business, as new business pricing assumptions reflect the current and anticipated future interest rate environment.  As a result, the effect of interest rate movements on the value of new business is primarily related to the discount rate.   

 

Refer to Note 10 of our consolidated financial statements for goodwill and specifically identifiable intangible assets by segment.  All of the discussion that follows represents our analysis as of October 1, 2015.

 

Step 1 Results

 

We performed a Step 1 analysis on all of our reporting units.  Our Annuities, Retirement Plan Services and Group Protection reporting units passed the Step 1 analysis.  Given the Step 1 results, we also performed a Step 2 analysis for Life Insurance.

 

For Annuities, Retirement Plan Services and Group Protection, we updated our estimates of discount rates based upon current market observable inputs.  We used discount rates ranging from 9% to 12% for Annuities, 8.75% to 9.75% for Retirement Plan Services and 8% to 9% for Group Protection. 

 

Based upon our Step 1 analysis for Annuities, Retirement Plan Services and Group Protection, our estimated implied fair value was well in excess of each reporting unit’s carrying value of net assets, including goodwill.

 

Step 2 Results and Information for our Life Insurance Reporting Unit

 

In our Step 2 analysis of Life Insurance, we estimated the implied fair value of goodwill using the following key assumptions: 

 

 

Based upon our Step 2 analysis for Life Insurance, we determined that there was no impairment. 

 

Outlook

 

Factors that can influence the value of goodwill include the capital markets, competitive landscape, regulatory environment, consumer confidence and any items that can directly or indirectly affect new business future cash flows.  For example, unfavorable changes to assumptions as compared to our October 1, 2015, analysis or factors that could result in impairment include, but are not limited to, the following:

 

 

Income Taxes

 

Management uses certain assumptions and estimates in determining the income taxes payable or refundable for the current year, the deferred income tax liabilities and assets for items recognized differently in its financial statements from amounts shown on its income tax returns and the federal income tax expense.  Determining these amounts requires analysis and interpretation of current tax laws and regulations.  Management exercises considerable judgment in evaluating the amount and timing of recognition of the resulting income tax liabilities and assets.  These judgments and estimates are re-evaluated on a continual basis as regulatory and business factors change.  Legislative changes to the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, modification or new regulations, administrative rulings, or court decisions could increase our effective tax rate.

 

The application of GAAP requires us to evaluate the recoverability of our deferred tax assets and establish a valuation allowance, if necessary, to reduce our deferred tax asset to an amount that is more likely than not to be realizable.  Considerable judgment and the use of estimates are required in determining whether a valuation allowance is necessary, and if so, the amount of such valuation allowance.  In evaluating the need for a valuation allowance, we consider many factors, including:  the nature and character of the deferred tax assets and liabilities; taxable income in prior carryback years; future reversals of existing temporary differences; the length of time carryovers can be utilized; and any tax planning strategies we would employ to avoid a tax benefit from expiring unused.  Although realization is not

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assured, management believes it is more likely than not that the deferred tax assets, including our capital loss deferred tax asset, will be realized.  For additional information on our income taxes, see Note 7.

 

Acquisitions and Dispositions

 

For information about acquisitions and divestitures, see Note 3.

 

RESULTS OF CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS

 

Details underlying the consolidated results, deposits, net flows and account values (in millions) were as follows: 

 

 

 

 

 

Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

Net income decreased due primarily to the following:

 

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The decrease in net income was partially offset by the following:

 

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

Net income increased due primarily to the following:

 

 

The increase in net income was partially offset primarily by the following:

 

 

RESULTS OF ANNUITIES

 

Income (Loss) from Operations

 

Details underlying the results for Annuities (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

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Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

Income from operations for this segment increased due primarily to higher fee income driven by higher average daily variable account values as a result of higher average equity markets and positive net flows.

 

The increase in income from operations was partially offset primarily by the following:

 

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

Income from operations for this segment increased due primarily to higher fee income driven by higher average daily variable account values.

 

The increase in income from operations was partially offset primarily by the following:

 

 

We provide information about this segment’s operating revenue and operating expense line items, the period in which amounts are recognized, key drivers of changes and historical details underlying the line items and their associated drivers below. 

 

See the Variable Account Value Information table within “Fee Income” below for drivers of changes in our variable account values and the Fixed Account Value Information table within “Net Investment Income and Interest Credited” below for drivers of changes in our fixed account values.

 

See “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL – Unlocking” above for more information about unlocking.

 

Additional Information

 

New deposits are an important component of net flows and key to our efforts to grow our business.    Although deposits do not significantly affect current period income from operations, they are an important indicator of future profitability. In 2015, 28% of our variable annuity deposits were on products without GLB riders, compared to 23% and 13% in 2014 and 2013, respectively.  In October 2015, our primary insurance subsidiary, The Lincoln National Life Insurance Company (“LNL”), amended and restated its reinsurance treaty covering new sales of its variable annuity GLB product.  The treaty provides an additional $2 billion of reinsurance capacity through December 31, 2016.  LNL will retain 100% of the product cash flows, excluding the living benefit guarantee.

 

The other component of net flows relates to the retention of the business.  An important measure of retention is the lapse rate, which compares the amount of withdrawals to the average account values.  The overall lapse rate for our annuity products was 7% for 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively.  

 

Our fixed annuity business includes products with discretionary crediting rates that are reset on an annual basis and are not subject to surrender charges.  Our ability to retain annual reset annuities will be subject to current competitive conditions at the time interest rates for these products reset.  We expect to manage the effects of spreads on near-term income from operations through portfolio management and, to a lesser extent, crediting rate actions, which assumes no significant changes in net flows into or out of our fixed accounts or other changes that may cause interest rate spreads to differ from our expectations.  For information on interest rate spreads and the interest rate risk due to falling interest rates, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals” and “Effect of Interest Rate Sensitivity” and “Interest Rate Risk on Fixed Insurance Businesses – Falling Rates” in “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk.”

 

For information about the potential impact of regulatory risk including the DOL proposed fiduciary advice regulation, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Department of Labor proposed regulation defining fiduciary could cause changes to the manner in which we deliver products and services as well as changes in nature and amount of compensation and fees.”

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

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Fee Income

 

Details underlying fee income, account values and net flows (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We charge contract holders mortality and expense assessments on variable annuity accounts to cover insurance and administrative expenses.  These assessments are a function of the rates priced into the product and the average daily variable account values.  Average daily account values are driven by net flows and variable fund returns.  Charges on GLB riders are assessed based on a contractual rate that is applied either to the account value or the guaranteed amount.  In addition, for our fixed annuity contracts and for some variable contracts, we collect surrender charges when contract holders surrender their contracts during their surrender charge periods to protect us from premature withdrawals.  Fee income includes charges on both our variable and fixed annuity products, but excludes the attributed fees on our GLB riders; see “Realized Gain (Loss) and Benefit Ratio Unlocking – Operating Realized Gain (Loss)” below for discussion of these attributed fees.

 

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Net Investment Income and Interest Credited

 

Details underlying net investment income, interest credited (in millions) and our interest rate spread were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A portion of our investment income earned is credited to the contract holders of our fixed annuity products, including the fixed portion of variable annuity contracts.  We expect to earn a spread between what we earn on the underlying general account investments

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supporting the fixed annuity product line, including the fixed portion of variable annuity contracts, and what we credit to our fixed annuity contract holders’ accounts, including the fixed portion of variable annuity contracts.  Changes in commercial mortgage loan prepayments and bond make-whole premiums, investment income on alternative investments and surplus investment income can vary significantly from period to period due to a number of factors and, therefore, may contribute to investment income results that are not indicative of the underlying trends.

 

Benefits

 

Details underlying benefits (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

Benefits for this segment include changes in income annuity reserves driven by premiums, changes in benefit reserves and our expected costs associated with purchases of derivatives used to hedge our benefit ratio unlocking on benefit reserves associated with our GDB riders.    For a corresponding offset of changes in benefit reserves, see footnote 1 of “Income (Loss) from Operations” above.

 

Commissions and Other Expenses

 

Details underlying commissions and other expenses (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Commissions and other costs that result directly from and are essential to the successful acquisition of new or renewal business are deferred to the extent recoverable and are amortized over the lives of the contracts in relation to EGPs.  Certain types of commissions, such as trail commissions that are based on account values, are expensed as incurred rather than deferred and amortized.

 

Broker-dealer expenses that vary with and are related to sales are expensed as incurred and not deferred and amortized.  Fluctuations in these expenses correspond with fluctuations in other revenues.

 

 

 

 

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RESULTS OF RETIREMENT PLAN SERVICES

 

Income (Loss) from Operations

 

Details underlying the results for Retirement Plan Services (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

Income from operations for this segment decreased due primarily to the following: 

 

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

Income from operations for this segment increased due primarily to the following:

 

 

The increase in income from operations was partially offset by spread compression due to average new money rates trailing our current portfolio yields.

 

We provide information about this segment’s operating revenue and operating expense line items, the period in which amounts are recognized, key drivers of changes and historical details underlying the line items and their associated drivers below. 

 

See the Variable Account Value Information table within “Fee Income” below for drivers of changes in our variable account values and the Fixed Account Value Information table within “Net Investment Income and Interest Credited” below for drivers of changes in our fixed account values.

 

See “Consolidated Investments – Commercial Mortgage Loan Prepayment and Bond Make-Whole Premiums” below for more information on prepayment and bond make-whole premiums.

 

See “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL – Unlocking” above for more information about unlocking.

 

Additional Information

 

We expect to continue making strategic investments at the same levels as 2015 towards the customer experience and our web offerings.

 

Net flows in this business fluctuate based on the timing of larger plans being implemented on our platform and terminating over the course of the year.

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New deposits are an important component of net flows and key to our efforts to grow our business.  Although deposits do not significantly affect current period income from operations, they are an important indicator of future profitability.  The other component of net flows relates to the retention of the business.  An important measure of retention is the lapse rate, which compares the amount of withdrawals to the average account values.  The overall lapse rate for the business was 13%, 16% and 13% for 2015, 2014 and 2013.  The 2014 lapse rate  was negatively impacted by a large case termination in the mid to large market during the fourth quarter of 2014.

 

Our net flows are negatively affected by the continued net outflows from our oldest blocks of annuities business (as presented on our Account Value Roll Forward table below as “Multi-Fund® and Other”), which are also our highest margin product lines in this segment, due to the fact that they are mature blocks with low distribution and servicing costs.  The proportion of these products to our total account values was 30%, 32% and 33% for 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively.  Due to this expected overall shift in business mix toward products with lower returns, a significant increase in new deposit production continues to be necessary to maintain earnings at current levels.

 

Our fixed annuity business includes products with discretionary and index-based crediting rates that are reset on either a quarterly or semi-annual basis.  Our ability to retain quarterly or semi-annual reset annuities will be subject to current competitive conditions at the time interest rates for these products reset.  We expect to manage the effects of spreads on near-term income from operations through portfolio management and, to a lesser extent, crediting rate actions, which assumes no significant changes in net flows into or out of our fixed accounts or other changes that may cause interest rate spreads to differ from our expectations.  For information on interest rate spreads and the interest rate risk due to falling interest rates, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals” and “Effect of Interest Rate Sensitivity” and “Interest Rate Risk on Fixed Insurance Businesses – Falling Rates” in “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk.”

 

For information about regulatory risk including the potential impact of the DOL proposed fiduciary advice regulation, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Department of Labor proposed regulation defining fiduciary could cause changes to the manner in which we deliver products and services as well as changes in nature and amount of compensation and fees.”

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

Fee Income

 

Details underlying fee income, account values and net flows (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

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We charge expense assessments to cover insurance and administrative expenses.  Expense assessments are generally equal to a percentage of the daily variable account values.  Average daily account values are driven by net flows and the equity markets.  Our expense assessments include fees we earn for the services that we provide to our mutual fund programs.  In addition, for both our fixed and variable annuity contracts, we collect surrender charges when contract holders surrender their contracts during the surrender charge periods to protect us from premature withdrawals.

 

Net Investment Income and Interest Credited

 

Details underlying net investment income, interest credited (in millions) and our interest rate spread were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A portion of our investment income earned is credited to the contract holders of our fixed annuity products, including the fixed portion of variable annuity contracts.  We expect to earn a spread between what we earn on the underlying general account investments supporting the fixed annuity product line, including the fixed portion of variable annuity contracts, and what we credit to our fixed annuity contract holders’ accounts, including the fixed portion of variable annuity contracts.  Commercial mortgage loan prepayments and  

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bond make-whole premiums, investment income on alternative investments and surplus investment income can vary significantly from period to period due to a number of factors and, therefore, may contribute to investment income results that are not indicative of the underlying trends.

 

Benefits

 

Benefits for this segment include changes in benefit reserves and our expected costs associated with purchases of derivatives used to hedge our benefit ratio unlocking.

 

Commissions and Other Expenses

 

Details underlying commissions and other expenses (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

Commissions and other costs that result directly from and are essential to the successful acquisition of new or renewal business are deferred to the extent recoverable and are amortized over the lives of the contracts in relation to EGPs.  Certain types of commissions, such as trail commissions that are based on account values, are expensed as incurred rather than deferred and amortized.  Distribution expenses associated with the sale of mutual fund products are expensed as incurred.

 

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RESULTS OF LIFE INSURANCE

 

Income (Loss) from Operations

 

Details underlying the results for Life Insurance (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

Income from operations for this segment decreased due primarily to the following:

 

 

The decrease in income from operations was partially offset by higher fee income attributable to growth in business in force and the effect of unlocking.

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

Income from operations for this segment increased due primarily to the following:

 

 

The increase in income from operations was partially offset primarily by the following:

 

 

We provide information about this segment’s operating revenue and operating expense line items, the period in which amounts are recognized, key drivers of changes and historical details underlying the line items and their associated drivers below. 

 

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See “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL – Unlocking” above for more information about unlocking.

 

See “Consolidated Investments – Commercial Mortgage Loan Prepayment and Bond Make-Whole Premiums” below for more information on prepayment and bond make-whole premiums. 

 

See “Consolidated Investments – Alternative Investments” below for more information on alternative investments.

 

Strategies to Address Statutory Reserve Strain

 

Our insurance subsidiaries have statutory surplus and RBC levels above current regulatory required levels.  Term products and UL products containing secondary guarantees require reserves calculated pursuant to the Valuation of Life Insurance Policies Model Regulation (“XXX”) and Actuarial Guideline 38 (“AG38”), respectively.  For information on strategies we use to reduce the statutory reserve strain caused by XXX and AG38, see “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow – Insurance Subsidiaries’ Statutory Capital and Surplus” below.

 

Additional Information

 

In 2015, we experienced elevated mortality.  During the first quarter of 2015, mortality was negatively impacted by above-average claims seasonality (i.e. elevated claim counts).  In the second quarter of 2015, claim counts returned to normal, but mortality remained unfavorable due to higher claims severity (i.e. claim size).  Mortality was in line with our expectations during the second half of 2015.

 

During the fourth quarter of 2014, we entered into an agreement to recapture certain traditional and interest sensitive business under several yearly renewable term reinsurance treaties that were originally ceded to a reinsurer.  As part of this agreement, we received cash consideration of $500 million, of which $78 million represented reimbursement for prepaid reinsurance premiums related to the recaptured treaties.  We recognized a one-time gain of $57 million, after-tax, related to this recapture with the remaining difference between the proceeds and the gain being driven primarily by increases in reserves of $226 million and a reduction of DAC of $123 million.

 

We expect to manage the effects of spreads on near-term income from operations through portfolio management, which assumes no significant changes in net flows into or out of our fixed accounts or other changes that may cause interest rate spreads to differ from our expectations.  

 

For information on interest rate spreads and the interest rate risk due to falling interest rates, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals” and “Effect of Interest Rate Sensitivity” and “Interest Rate Risk on Fixed Insurance Businesses – Falling Rates” in “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk.”

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

Insurance Premiums

 

Insurance premiums relate to traditional products and are a function of the rates priced into the product and the level of business in force.  Business in force, in turn, is driven by sales, persistency and mortality experience.

 

Fee Income

 

Details underlying fee income, sales, net flows, account values and in-force face amount (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

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Fee income relates only to interest-sensitive products and includes cost of insurance assessments, expense assessments (net of deferrals and amortization related to DFEL) and surrender charges.  Cost of insurance and expense assessments are deducted from our contract holders’ account values.  These amounts are a function of the rates priced into the product and premiums received, face amount in force and account values.  Business in force, in turn, is driven by sales, persistency and mortality experience. 

 

Sales are not recorded as a component of revenues (other than for traditional products) and do not have a significant effect on current quarter income from operations but are indicators of future profitability.  Generally, we have higher sales during the second half of the year with the fourth quarter being our strongest. 

 

Sales in the table above and as discussed above were reported as follows:

 

 

We monitor the regulatory environment and make changes to our product offerings as needed to sustain the future profitability of our segment.  We continue to focus on maintaining our diversified balance of life sales across all products, with an emphasis on products without long-term guarantees.  Individual life sales (i.e., total life sales excluding COLI and BOLI) without long-term guarantees were 63%, 59% and 61%  as of December 31, 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively.    

 

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Net Investment Income and Interest Credited

 

Details underlying net investment income, interest credited (in millions) and our interest rate spread were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A portion of the investment income earned for this segment is credited to contract holder accounts.  Statutory reserves will typically grow at a faster rate than account values because of the AG38 reserve requirements.  Invested assets are based upon the statutory reserve liabilities and are affected by various reserve adjustments, including financing transactions providing relief from AG38 reserve requirements.  These financing transactions lead to a transfer of invested assets from this segment to Other Operations.  We expect to earn a spread between what we earn on the underlying general account investments and what we credit to our contract holders’ accounts.  We use our investment income to offset the earnings effect of the associated growth of our policy reserves for traditional products. 

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Commercial mortgage loan prepayments and bond make-whole premiums and investment income on alternative investments can vary significantly from period to period due to a number of factors, and, therefore, may contribute to investment income results that are not indicative of the underlying trends.

 

Benefits

 

Details underlying benefits (dollars in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Benefits for this segment include claims incurred during the period in excess of the associated reserves for its interest-sensitive and traditional products.  In addition, benefits include the change in secondary guarantee and linked-benefit life insurance product reserves.  These reserves are affected by changes in expected future trends of expense assessments causing unlocking adjustments to these liabilities similar to DAC, VOBA and DFEL.  Generally, we have higher mortality in the first quarter of the year due to the seasonality of claims.  See “Future Contract Benefits and Other Contract Holder Funds” in Note 1 for additional information.

 

Commissions and Other Expenses

 

Details underlying commissions and other expenses (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

Commissions and costs that result directly from and are essential to successful acquisition of new or renewal business are deferred to the extent recoverable and for our interest-sensitive products are generally amortized over the life of the contracts in relation to EGPs.  For

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our traditional products, DAC and VOBA are amortized on either a straight-line basis or as a level percent of premium of the related contracts, depending on the block of business.  When comparing DAC and VOBA deferrals as a percentage of sales for 2015 and 2014, the decrease was primarily a result of changes in sales mix to products with lower commission rates.

 

 

 

 

RESULTS OF GROUP PROTECTION

 

Income (Loss) from Operations

 

Details underlying the results for Group Protection (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

Income from operations for this segment increased due primarily to more favorable total non-medical loss ratio experience driven by higher disability claim recoveries and lower incidence in our long-term disability business and favorable reserve refinements in our life business,  partially offset by higher commissions and other expenses due to higher amortization of DAC driven by higher lapses and re-pricing actions.

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

Income from operations for this segment decreased due primarily to unfavorable total non-medical loss ratio experience attributable to increased long-term disability incidence and a decline in long-term disability claim recoveries in 2014 and favorable reserve adjustments related to our long-term disability business in 2013.

 

We provide information about this segment’s operating revenue and operating expense line items, the period in which amounts are recognized, key drivers of changes and historical details underlying the line items and their associated drivers below.

 

Additional Information

 

Similar to the first quarter of 2015, we expect elevated amortization of DAC during the first quarter of 2016 due to renewal lapses and re-pricing actions.

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Management compares trends in actual loss ratios to pricing expectations as group-underwriting risks change over time.  We expect normal fluctuations in our total non-medical loss ratio, as claims experience is inherently uncertain.  For every one percent increase in the total non-medical loss ratio, we would expect an approximate annual $13 million to $15 million decrease to income from operations.

 

We expect to approach our normal target margins in 2018.

 

For information on the effects of current interest rates on our long-term disability claim reserves, see “Effect of Interest Rate Sensitivity” and “Interest Rate Risk on Fixed Insurance Businesses – Falling Rates” in “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk – Interest Rate Risk.”

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

Insurance Premiums

 

Details underlying insurance premiums (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

Our cost of insurance and policy administration charges are embedded in the premiums charged to our customers.  The premiums are a function of the rates priced into the product and our business in force.  Business in force, in turn, is driven by sales and persistency experience. 

 

Sales relate to new contract holders and new programs sold to existing contract holders.  We believe that the trend in sales is an important indicator of development of business in force over time.  Sales in the table above are the combined annualized premiums for our life, disability and dental products.  When comparing sales for 2015 to 2014,  the decrease was primarily the result of re-pricing actions on our employer-paid life and disability business. 

 

Net Investment Income

 

We use our investment income to offset the earnings effect of the associated build of our reserves, which are a function of our insurance premiums and the yields on our invested assets.

 

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Benefits and Interest Credited

 

Details underlying benefits and interest credited (in millions) and loss ratios by product line were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Commissions and Other Expenses

 

Details underlying commissions and other expenses (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Commissions and other costs that result directly from and are essential to the successful acquisition of new or renewal business are deferred to the extent recoverable and are amortized in relation to the revenues of the related contracts.  Certain broker commissions that vary with and are related to paid premiums are expensed as incurred.  The level of expenses is an important driver of profitability for this segment as group insurance contracts are offered within an environment that competes on the basis of price and service.    Generally, we have higher amortization in the first quarter of the year due to a significant number of policies renewing in the quarter.    

 

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RESULTS OF OTHER OPERATIONS

 

Income (Loss) from Operations

 

Details underlying the results for Other Operations (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

Loss from operations for Other Operations increased due primarily to the following:

 

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

Loss from operations for Other Operations decreased due primarily to the following:

 

 

We provide information about Other Operations’ operating revenue and operating expense line items, the period in which amounts are recognized, key drivers of changes and historical details underlying the line items and their associated drivers below.  

 

Additional Information

 

The deferred gain on business sold through reinsurance will be substantially amortized during the first quarter of 2017.

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

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Net Investment Income and Interest Credited

 

We utilize an internal formula to determine the amount of capital that is allocated to our business segments.  Investment income on capital in excess of the calculated amounts is reported in Other Operations.  If our business segments require increases in statutory reserves,  surplus or investments, the amount of excess capital that is retained by Other Operations would decrease and net investment income would be negatively affected.

   

Write-downs for OTTI decrease the recorded value of our invested assets owned by the business segments.  These write-downs are not included in the income from operations of our business segments.  When impairment occurs, assets are transferred to the business segments’ portfolios and will reduce the future net investment income for Other Operations.  Statutory reserve adjustments for our business segments can also cause allocations of invested assets between the business segments and Other Operations.

 

The majority of our interest credited relates to our reinsurance operations sold to Swiss Re Life & Health America, Inc. (“Swiss Re”) in 2001.  A substantial amount of the business was sold through indemnity reinsurance transactions, which is still recorded in our consolidated financial statements.  The interest credited corresponds to investment income earnings on the assets we continue to hold for this business.  There is no effect to income or loss in Other Operations or on a consolidated basis for these amounts because interest earned on the blocks that continue to be reinsured is passed through to Swiss Re in the form of interest credited.

 

Benefits

 

Benefits are recognized when incurred for institutional pension products and disability income business.

 

Other Expenses

 

 

Details underlying other expenses (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

Interest and Debt Expense

 

Our current level of interest expense may not be indicative of the future due to, among other things, the timing of the use of cash, the availability of funds from our inter-company cash management program and the future cost of capital.  For additional information on our financing activities, see “Review of Consolidated Financial Condition – Liquidity and Capital Resources – Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow – Financing Activities” below.

 

 

 

 

 

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REALIZED GAIN (LOSS) AND BENEFIT RATIO UNLOCKING

 

Details underlying realized gain (loss), after-DAC (1) and benefit ratio unlocking (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

For information on our counterparty exposure, see “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”  

 

Comparison of 2015 to 2014

 

We had realized losses during 2015 as compared to zero net realized gains and losses during 2014 driven primarily by the following components of excluded realized gain (loss), which we have described net of benefit ratio unlocking, after-tax:

 

 

Comparison of 2014 to 2013

 

We had zero net realized gains and losses during 2014 as compared to losses during 2013 driven primarily by the following components of excluded realized gain (loss), which we have described net of benefit ratio unlocking, after-tax:

 

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The zero net realized gains and losses were partially offset by losses on the mark-to-market on certain instruments during 2014 as compared to gains during 2013 attributable primarily to lower gains on variable interest entities’ liabilities (see Note 4) and a decrease in interest rates leading to losses on derivative investments (not including those associated with our variable annuity net derivatives results).

 

See “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL – Unlocking” above for information about unlocking.

 

See “Variable Annuity Net Derivatives Results” below for a discussion of how our NPR adjustment is determined.

 

Operating Realized Gain (Loss)

 

Operating realized gain (loss) includes indexed annuity net derivatives results representing the net difference between the change in the fair value of the S&P 500 call options that we hold and the change in the fair value of the embedded derivative liabilities of our indexed annuity products.  The change in the fair value of the liability for the embedded derivative represents the amount that is credited to the indexed annuity contract.

 

Our GWB, GIB and 4LATER® features have elements of both benefit reserves and embedded derivative reserves.  We calculate the value of the benefit reserves and the embedded derivative reserves based on the specific characteristics of each GLB feature.  For our GLBs that meet the definition of an embedded derivative under the Derivatives and Hedging Topic of the FASB ASC, we record them at fair value on our Consolidated Balance Sheets with changes in fair value recorded in realized gain (loss) on our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss).  In bifurcating the embedded derivative, we attribute to the embedded derivative the portion of total fees collected from the contract holder that relates to the GLB riders (the “attributed fees”).  These attributed fees represent the present value of future claims expected to be paid for the GLB at the inception of the contract (the “net valuation premium”) plus a margin that a theoretical market participant would include for risk/profit (the “risk/profit margin”).

 

We also include the risk/profit margin portion of the GLB attributed rider fees in operating realized gain (loss) and include the net valuation premium of the GLB attributed rider fees in excluded realized gain (loss).  For our Annuities and Retirement Plan Services segments, the excess of total fees collected from the contract holders over the GLB attributed rider fees is reported in fee income. 

 

Realized Gain (Loss) Related to Certain Investments

 

See “Consolidated Investments – Realized Gain (Loss) Related to Certain Investments” below.

 

Gain (Loss) on the Mark-to-Market on Certain Instruments

 

Gain (loss) on the mark-to-market on certain instruments, including those associated with our consolidated variable interest entities (“VIEs”) represents changes in the fair values of certain derivative investments (not including those associated with our variable annuity net derivatives results), reinsurance related embedded derivatives and trading securities.

 

See Note 4 for information about our consolidated VIEs.    

 

Variable Annuity Net Derivatives Results

 

Our variable annuity net derivatives results include the net valuation premium, the change in the GLB embedded derivative reserves and the change in the fair value of the derivative instruments we own to hedge them, including the cost of purchasing the hedging instruments.  In addition, these results include the changes in reserves not accounted for at fair value and results from benefit ratio unlocking on our GDB and GLB riders and the change in the fair value of the derivative instruments we own to hedge the benefit ratio unlocking on our GDB and GLB riders.

 

We use derivative instruments to hedge our exposure to the risks and earnings volatility that result from changes in the GLB embedded derivative reserves.  The change in fair value of these derivative instruments is designed to generally offset the change in embedded derivative reserves.  Our variable annuity net derivatives results can be volatile, especially when sudden and significant changes in equity markets and/or interest rates occur.  We do not attempt to hedge the change in the NPR component of the liability.  The NPR factors affect the discount rate used in the calculation of the GLB embedded derivative reserve.  Our methodology for calculating the NPR component of the embedded derivative reserve utilizes an extrapolated 30-year NPR spread curve applied to a series of expected cash flows over the expected life of the embedded derivative.  Our cash flows consist of both expected fees to be received from contract holders and benefits to be paid, and these cash flows are different on a pre- and post-NPR basis.  We utilize a model based on our holding company’s credit default swap (“CDS”) spread adjusted for items, such as the security of policyholder liabilities relative to the security of insurance company debt.  Because the guaranteed benefit liabilities are contained within our insurance subsidiaries, we apply items, such as the effect of our insurance subsidiaries’ claims-paying ratings compared to holding company credit risk and the over-collateralization of insurance liabilities, in order to determine factors that are representative of a theoretical market participant’s view of the NPR of the specific liability within our insurance subsidiaries. 

 

 

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Details underlying our variable annuity hedging program (dollars in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

The following shows the approximate hypothetical effect to net income, pre-DAC (1), pre-tax (in millions) for changes in the NPR factor along all points on the spread curve as of December 31, 2015:

 

 

 

 

See “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Derivatives – GLB” above for additional information about our guaranteed benefits.

 

Indexed Annuity Forward-Starting Option

 

The liability for the forward-starting option reflects changes in the fair value of embedded derivative liabilities related to index call options we may purchase in the future to hedge contract holder index allocations applicable to future reset periods for our indexed annuity products accounted for under the Derivatives and Hedging and the Fair Value Measurements and Disclosures Topics of the FASB ASC.  These fair values represent an estimate of the cost of the options we will purchase in the future, discounted back to the date of the balance sheet, using current market indications of volatility and interest rates, which can vary significantly from period to period due to a number of factors and therefore can provide results that are not indicative of the underlying trends.    

 

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CONSOLIDATED INVESTMENTS

 

Details underlying our consolidated investment balances (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

Investment Objective

 

Invested assets are an integral part of our operations.  We follow a balanced approach to investing for both current income and prudent risk management, with an emphasis on generating sufficient current income, net of income tax, to meet our obligations to customers, as well as other general liabilities.  This balanced approach requires the evaluation of expected return and risk of each asset class utilized, while still meeting our income objectives.  This approach is important to our asset-liability management because decisions can be made based upon both the economic and current investment income considerations affecting assets and liabilities.  For a discussion of our risk management process, see “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”

 

Investment Portfolio Composition and Diversification

 

Fundamental to our investment policy is diversification across asset classes.  Our investment portfolio, excluding cash and invested cash, is composed of fixed maturity securities, mortgage loans on real estate, real estate (either wholly-owned or in joint ventures) and other long-term investments.  We purchase investments for our segmented portfolios that have yield, duration and other characteristics that take into account the liabilities of the products being supported. 

 

We have the ability to maintain our investment holdings throughout credit cycles because of our capital position, the long-term nature of our liabilities and the matching of our portfolios of investment assets with the liabilities of our various products.

 

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Fixed Maturity and Equity Securities Portfolios

 

Fixed maturity and equity securities consist of portfolios classified as AFS and trading.  Details underlying our fixed maturity and equity securities portfolios by industry classification (in millions) are presented in the tables below.  These tables agree in total with the presentation of AFS securities in Note 5; however, the categories below represent a more detailed breakout of the AFS portfolio.  Therefore, the investment classifications listed below do not agree to the investment categories provided in Note 5.

 

 

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AFS Securities

 

In accordance with the AFS accounting guidance, we reflect stockholders’ equity as if unrealized gains and losses were actually recognized, and consider all related accounting adjustments that would occur upon such a hypothetical recognition of unrealized gains and losses.  Such related balance sheet effects include adjustments to the balances of DAC, VOBA, DFEL, future contract benefits, other contract holder funds and deferred income taxes.  Adjustments to each of these balances are charged or credited to AOCI.  For instance, DAC is adjusted upon the recognition of unrealized gains or losses because the amortization of DAC is based upon an assumed emergence of gross profits on certain insurance business.  Deferred income tax balances are also adjusted because unrealized gains or losses do not affect actual taxes currently paid. 

 

The quality of our AFS fixed maturity securities portfolio, as measured at estimated fair value and by the percentage of fixed maturity AFS securities invested in various ratings categories, relative to the entire fixed maturity AFS security portfolio (in millions) was as follows:

 

 

 

Comparisons between the NAIC ratings and rating agency designations are published by the NAIC.  The NAIC assigns securities quality ratings and uniform valuations, which are used by insurers when preparing their annual statements.  The NAIC ratings are similar to the rating agency designations of the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations for marketable bonds.  NAIC ratings 1 and 2 include bonds generally considered investment grade (rated Baa or higher by Moody’s, or rated BBB- or higher by S&P and Fitch) by such ratings organizations.  However, securities rated NAIC 1 and 2 could be deemed below investment grade by the rating agencies as a result of the current RBC rules for residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) and CMBS for statutory reporting.  NAIC ratings 3 through 6 include bonds generally considered below investment grade (rated Ba or lower by Moody’s, or rated BB+ or lower by S&P and Fitch).

 

As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, 91.8% and 86.2%, respectively, of the total publicly traded and private securities in an unrealized loss position were investment grade.  See Note 5 for maturity date information for our fixed maturity investment portfolio.  Our gross unrealized losses, including the portion of OTTI recognized in other comprehensive income (loss) (“OCI”), on AFS securities as of December 31, 2015, increased $1.6 billion.  As more fully described in Note 1, we regularly review our investment holdings for OTTI.  We believe the unrealized loss position as of December 31, 2015, does not represent OTTI as:  (i) we do not intend to sell the debt securities; (ii) it is not more likely than not that we will be required to sell the debt securities before recovery of their amortized cost basis; (iii) the estimated future cash flows are equal to or greater than the amortized cost basis of the debt securities; and (iv) we have the ability and intent to hold the equity securities for a period of time sufficient for recovery.  For further information on our unrealized losses on AFS securities, see “Composition by Industry Categories of our Unrealized Losses on AFS Securities” below.

 

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As the energy markets continue to experience distress and future uncertainty, we also consider our related exposure in the context of the following industry categories and associated credit quality:

 

 

 

 

 

 

For additional information, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Weak conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally may materially adversely affect our business and results of operations.”

 

Selected information for certain AFS securities in a gross unrealized loss position (dollars in millions) as of December 31, 2015, was as follows:

 

 

As provided in the table above, many of the securities in these categories are long-dated with some of the preferred securities being perpetual.  This is purposeful as it matches the long-term nature of our liabilities associated with our life insurance and annuity products.  See “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” where we present information related to maturities of securities and the expected cash flows for rate sensitive liabilities and maturities of our holding company debt, which also demonstrates the long-term nature of the cash flows associated with these items.  Because of this relationship, we do not believe it will be necessary to sell these securities before they recover or mature.  For these securities, the estimated range and average period until recovery is the call or maturity period.  It is difficult to predict or project when the securities will recover as it is dependent upon a number of factors including

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the overall economic climate.  We do not believe the impairment is other than temporary for these securities as long as the expected future cash flows are projected to be sufficient to recover the amortized cost of these securities.

 

The actual range and period until recovery could vary significantly depending on a variety of factors, many of which are out of our control.  There are several items that could affect the length of the period until recovery, such as the pace of economic recovery, level of delinquencies, performance of the underlying collateral, changes in market interest rates, exposures to various industry or geographic conditions, market behavior and other market conditions.

 

We concluded:  (i) that it is not more likely than not that we will be required to sell the fixed maturity AFS securities before recovery of their amortized cost basis; (ii) that the estimated future cash flows are equal to or greater than the amortized cost basis of the debt securities; and (iii) that we have the ability to hold the equity AFS securities for a period of time sufficient for recovery.  This conclusion is consistent with our asset-liability management process.  Management considers the following as part of the evaluation:

 

 

To determine the recoverability of a debt security, we consider the facts and circumstances surrounding the underlying issuer including, but not limited to, the following:

 

 

As reported on our Consolidated Balance Sheets, we had $105.3 billion of investments and cash, which exceeded the liabilities for our future obligations under insurance policies and contracts, net of amounts recoverable from reinsurers, which totaled $92.4 billion as of December 31, 2015.  If it were necessary to liquidate securities prior to maturity or call to meet cash flow needs, we would first look to those securities that are in an unrealized gain position, which had a fair value of $60.1 billion,  excluding consolidated VIEs in the amount of $598 million, as of December 31, 2015, rather than selling securities in an unrealized loss position.  The amount of cash that we have on hand at any point in time takes into account our liquidity needs in the future, other sources of cash, such as the maturities of investments, interest and dividends we earn on our investments and the ongoing cash flows from new and existing business. 

 

See “AFS Securities – Evaluation for Recovery of Amortized Cost” in Note 1 and Note 5 for additional discussion.

 

As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, the estimated fair value for all private placement securities was $14.0 billion and $14.4 billion, respectively, representing 14% of total invested assets.

For information regarding our VIEs’ fixed maturity securities, see Note 4.

 

Trading Securities

 

Trading securities, which in certain cases support reinsurance funds withheld and our Modco reinsurance agreements, are carried at fair value and changes in fair value are recorded in net income as they occur.  Investment results for these certain portfolios, including gains and losses from sales, are passed directly to the reinsurers through the contractual terms of the reinsurance arrangements.  Offsetting these amounts in certain cases are corresponding changes in fair value of the embedded derivative liability associated with the underlying reinsurance arrangement.  See Notes 1 and 9 for more information regarding our accounting for Modco.

 

Mortgage-Backed Securities (Included in AFS and Trading Securities)

 

Our fixed maturity securities include mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”).  These securities are subject to risks associated with variable prepayments.  This may result in differences between the actual cash flow and maturity of these securities than that expected at the time of purchase.  Securities that have an amortized cost greater than par and are backed by mortgages that prepay faster than expected will incur a reduction in yield or a loss.  Those securities with an amortized cost lower than par that prepay faster than expected will generate an increase in yield or a gain.  In addition, we may incur reinvestment risks if market yields are lower than the book yields earned on the securities.  Prepayments occurring slower than expected have the opposite effect.  The degree to which a security is susceptible to either gains or losses is influenced by: the difference between its amortized cost and par; the relative sensitivity of the underlying mortgages

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backing the assets to prepayment in a changing interest rate environment; and the repayment priority of the securities in the overall securitization structure.

 

We limit the extent of our risk on MBS by prudently limiting exposure to the asset class, by generally avoiding the purchase of securities with a cost that significantly exceeds par, by purchasing securities with improving collateral performance, and by primarily investing in securities that are current pay and senior priority in their trust structure.  A significant amount of assets in our MBS portfolio are either guaranteed by U.S. government-sponsored enterprises,  supported in the securitization structure by junior securities, or purchased at discounted prices significantly lower than their expected recovery value, enabling the assets to achieve high investment grade status.

 

Our exposure to subprime mortgage lending is limited to investments in banks and other financial institutions that may be affected by subprime lending and direct investments in ABS and RMBS.  Mortgage-related ABS are backed by home equity loans and RMBS are backed by residential mortgages.  These securities are backed by loans that are characterized by borrowers of differing levels of creditworthiness:  prime; Alt-A; and subprime.  Prime lending is the origination of residential mortgage loans to customers with excellent credit profiles.  Alt-A lending is the origination of residential mortgage loans to customers who have prime credit profiles but lack documentation to substantiate income.  Subprime lending is the origination of loans to customers with weak or impaired credit profiles. 

 

Delinquency and loss rates on residential mortgages and home equity loans have been showing positive trends, and as long as the unemployment rate remains stable to improving, we expect these trends to continue.  We continue to expect to receive payments in accordance with contractual terms for a significant amount of our securities, largely due to the seniority of the claims on the collateral of the securities that we own.  The tranches of the securities will experience losses according to their seniority level with the least senior (or most junior), typically the unrated residual tranche, taking the first loss.  Our ABS home equity and RMBS had a market value of $4.5 billion and an unrealized gain of $175 million, or 4%, as of December 31, 2015. 

 

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The market value of AFS securities and trading securities backed by subprime loans was $530 million and represented approximately 0.5% of our total investment portfolio as of December 31, 2015.  AFS securities represented $520 million, or 98%, and trading securities represented $10 million, or 2%, of the subprime exposure as of December 31, 2015.  The table below summarizes our investments in AFS securities backed by pools of residential mortgages (in millions) as of December 31, 2015:

 

 

 

None of these investments included any direct investments in subprime lenders or mortgages.  We are not aware of material exposure to subprime loans in our alternative asset portfolio.

 

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The following summarizes our investments in AFS securities backed by pools of commercial mortgages (in millions) as of December 31, 2015:

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2015, the fair value and amortized cost of our AFS exposure to Monoline insurers was $472 million and $453 million, respectively. 

 

Composition by Industry Categories of our Unrealized Losses on AFS Securities

 

When considering unrealized gain and loss information, it is important to recognize that the information relates to the status of securities at a particular point in time and may not be indicative of the status of our investment portfolios subsequent to the balance sheet date.  Further, because the timing of the recognition of realized investment gains and losses through the selection of which securities are sold is largely at management’s discretion, it is important to consider the information provided below within the context of the overall unrealized gain or loss position of our investment portfolios.  These are important considerations that should be included in any evaluation of the potential effect of unrealized loss securities on our future earnings. 

 

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The composition by industry categories of all securities in unrealized loss position (in millions) as of December 31, 2015, was as follows:

 

 

As of December 31, 2015, the fair value and amortized cost of securities subject to enhanced analysis and monitoring for potential changes in unrealized loss status was $283 million and $404 million, respectively.

 

Mortgage Loans on Real Estate

 

The following tables summarize key information on mortgage loans on real estate (in millions):

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, there were two and three impaired mortgage loans on real estate, respectively, or less than 1% of the total dollar amount of mortgage loans on real estate.  The total principal and interest past due on the mortgage loans on real estate that were two or more payments delinquent as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, was zero and $6 million, respectively.  See Note 1 for more information regarding our accounting policy relating to the impairment of mortgage loans on real estate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

See Note 5 for information regarding our loan-to-value and debt-service coverage ratios and our allowance for loan losses.

 

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Alternative Investments

 

Investment income (loss) on alternative investments by business segment (in millions) was as follows:

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, alternative investments included investments in 190 and 156 different partnerships, respectively, and the portfolio represented approximately 1% of our overall invested assets.  The partnerships do not represent off-balance sheet financing and generally involve several third-party partners.  Some of our partnerships contain capital calls, which require us to contribute capital upon notification by the general partner.  These capital calls are contemplated during the initial investment decision and are planned for well in advance of the call date.  The capital calls are not material in size and are not material to our liquidity.  Alternative investments are accounted for using the equity method of accounting and are included in other investments on our Consolidated Balance Sheets.

 

Non-Income Producing Investments

 

As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, the carrying amount of fixed maturity securities, mortgage loans on real estate and real estate that were non-income producing was $13 million and $8 million, respectively.

 

Net Investment Income

 

Details underlying net investment income (in millions) and our investment yield were as follows:

 

 

 

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We earn investment income on our general account assets supporting fixed annuity, term life, whole life, UL, interest-sensitive whole life and the fixed portion of retirement plan and VUL products.  The profitability of our fixed annuity and life insurance products is affected by our ability to achieve target spreads, or margins, between the interest income earned on the general account assets and the interest credited to the contract holder on our average fixed account values, including the fixed portion of variable.  Net investment income and the interest rate yield table each include commercial mortgage loan prepayments and bond make-whole premiums, alternative investments and contingent interest and standby real estate equity commitments.  These items can vary significantly from period to period due to a number of factors and, therefore, can provide results that are not indicative of the underlying trends.

 

Commercial Mortgage Loan Prepayment and Bond Make-Whole Premiums

 

Prepayment and make-whole premiums are collected when borrowers elect to call or prepay their debt prior to the stated maturity.  A prepayment or make-whole premium allows investors to attain the same yield as if the borrower made all scheduled interest payments until maturity.  These premiums are designed to make investors indifferent to prepayment.

 

The decrease in prepayment and make-whole premiums when comparing 2015 to 2014 was attributable primarily to decreased refinancing activity.

 

Realized Gain (Loss) Related to Certain Investments

 

Details of the realized gain (loss) related to certain investments (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

 

Amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL and changes in other contract holder funds reflect an assumption for an expected level of credit-related investment losses.  When actual credit-related investment losses are realized, we recognize a true-up to our DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL amortization and changes in other contract holder funds within realized losses reflecting the incremental effect of actual versus expected credit-related investment losses.  These actual to expected amortization adjustments could create volatility in net realized gains and losses.  The write-down for impairments includes both credit-related and interest rate-related impairments.

 

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Realized gains and losses generally originate from asset sales to reposition the portfolio or to respond to product experience.  During 2015 and 2014, we sold securities for gains and losses.  In the process of evaluating whether a security with an unrealized loss reflects declines that are other-than-temporary, we consider our ability and intent to sell the security prior to a recovery of value.  However, subsequent decisions on securities sales are made within the context of overall risk monitoring, assessing value relative to other comparable securities and overall portfolio maintenance.  Although our portfolio managers may, at a given point in time, believe that the preferred course of action is to hold securities with unrealized losses that are considered temporary until such losses are recovered, the dynamic nature of portfolio management may result in a subsequent decision to sell.  These subsequent decisions are consistent with the classification of our investment portfolio as AFS.  We expect to continue to manage all non-trading invested assets within our portfolios in a manner that is consistent with the AFS classification.

 

We consider economic factors and circumstances within countries and industries where recent write-downs have occurred in our assessment of the status of securities we own of similarly situated issuers.  While it is possible for realized or unrealized losses on a particular investment to affect other investments, our risk management strategy has been designed to identify correlation risks and other risks inherent in managing an investment portfolio.  Once identified, strategies and procedures are developed to effectively monitor and manage these risks.  The areas of risk correlation that we pay particular attention to are risks that may be correlated within specific financial and business markets, risks within specific industries and risks associated with related parties.

 

When the detailed analysis by our external asset managers and investment portfolio managers leads us to the conclusion that a security’s decline in fair value is other-than-temporary, the security is written down to estimated recovery value.  In instances where declines are considered temporary, the security will continue to be carefully monitored.  See “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – Investments – Write-downs for OTTI and Allowance for Losses” for additional information on our portfolio management strategy.

 

Details underlying write-downs taken as a result of OTTI (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

The $90 million of impairments taken during 2015 were split between $36 million of credit-related impairments, $24 million of intent-to-sell securities and $30 million of noncredit-related impairments.  The increase in write-downs for OTTI when comparing 2015 to 2014 was primarily attributable to certain corporate bond holdings within commodity related industries that experienced deteriorating fundamentals.  The noncredit-related impairments were due to declines in values of securities for which we do not have an intent to sell or it is not more likely than not that we will be required to sell the securities before recovery.

 

REINSURANCE

 

Our insurance companies cede insurance to other companies.  The portion of our life insurance and annuity risks exceeding each of our insurance companies’ retention limit is reinsured with other insurers.  We seek reinsurance coverage to limit our exposure to mortality losses and/or to enhance our capital management.  We acquire other reinsurance as applicable with retentions and limits that management believes are appropriate for the circumstances.  The consolidated financial statements included in “Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” reflect insurance premiums, insurance fees, benefits and DAC net of insurance ceded.  Our insurance companies remain liable if their reinsurers are unable to meet contractual obligations under applicable reinsurance agreements.  We utilize inter-company reinsurance agreements to manage our statutory capital position as well as our hedge program for variable annuity guarantees.  These inter-company agreements do not have an effect on our consolidated financial statements.

 

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We focus on obtaining reinsurance from a diverse group of reinsurers.  We have established standards and criteria for our use and selection of reinsurers.  In order for a new reinsurer to participate in our current program, we require the reinsurer to have an A.M. Best rating of A+ or greater or a S&P rating of AA- or better and a specified RBC percentage.  If the reinsurer does not have these ratings, we generally require them to post collateral as described below; however, we may initially waive the collateral requirements based on the facts and circumstances.  In addition, we may require collateral from a reinsurer to mitigate credit/collectability risk.  Typically, in such cases, the reinsurer must either maintain minimum specified ratings and RBC ratios or establish the specified quality and quantity of collateral.  Similarly, we have also required collateral in connection with books of business sold pursuant to indemnity reinsurance agreements.

 

Reinsurers, including affiliated reinsurers, that are not licensed, accredited or authorized in the state of domicile of the reinsured (“ceding company”), i.e., unauthorized reinsurers, are required to post statutorily prescribed forms of collateral for the ceding company to receive reinsurance credit.  The three primary forms of collateral are:  (i) qualifying assets held in a reserve credit trust; (ii) irrevocable, unconditional, evergreen LOCs issued by a qualified U.S. financial institution; and (iii) assets held by the ceding company in a segregated funds withheld account.  Collateral must be maintained in accordance with the rules of the ceding company’s state of domicile and must be readily accessible by the ceding company to cover claims under the reinsurance agreement.  Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries require unauthorized reinsurers to post acceptable forms of collateral to support their reinsurance obligations to us. 

 

Our amounts recoverable from reinsurers represent receivables from and reserves ceded to reinsurers.  As of December 31, 2015, approximately 74%, or $4.2 billion, of our total reinsurance recoverable was secured by collateral for our benefit.  Of this amount, $3.5 billion was held by reinsurers in reserve credit trusts (such reserve credit trusts are held by non-affiliated reinsurers; therefore, they are not reflected on our Consolidated Balance Sheets), $638 million was reflected as funds withheld reinsurance liabilities on our Consolidated Balance Sheets and $73 million was secured by LOCs for which we are the beneficiary, an off-balance sheet arrangement.

 

We regularly evaluate the financial condition of our reinsurers and monitor concentration risk with our largest reinsurers at least annually.  We monitor all of our existing reinsurers’ financial strength ratings on a monthly basis.  We also monitor our reinsurers’ financial health, trends and commitment to the reinsurance business, statutory surplus, RBC levels, statutory earnings and fluctuations, current claims payment aging and our reinsurers’ own reinsurers.  In addition, we present at least annually information regarding our reinsurance exposures to the Finance Committee of our Board of Directors.  For more discussion of our counterparty risk with our reinsurers, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Operational Matters – We face risks of non-collectability of reinsurance and increased reinsurance rates, which could materially affect our results of operations.”

 

See Note 9 and “Results of Life Insurance – Income (Loss) from Operations – Additional Information” for more information about reinsurance.

 

For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

 

 

 

 REVIEW OF CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL CONDITION

 

Liquidity and Capital Resources

 

Sources of Liquidity and Cash Flow 

 

Liquidity refers to the ability of an enterprise to generate adequate amounts of cash from its normal operations to meet cash requirements with a prudent margin of safety.  Our principal sources of cash flow from operating activities are insurance premiums and fees and investment income, while sources of cash flows from investing activities result from maturities and sales of invested assets.  Our operating activities provided cash of $2.2 billion, $2.5 billion and $799 million in 2015,  2014 and 2013, respectively.  When considering our liquidity and cash flow, it is important to distinguish between the needs of our insurance subsidiaries and the needs of the holding company, LNC.  As a holding company with no operations of its own, LNC derives its cash primarily from its operating subsidiaries. 

 

The sources of liquidity of the holding company are principally comprised of dividends and interest payments from subsidiaries, augmented by holding company short-term investments, bank lines of credit and the ongoing availability of long-term public financing under an SEC-filed shelf registration statement.  These sources of liquidity and cash flow support the general corporate needs of the holding company, including its common stock dividends, interest and debt service, funding of callable securities, securities repurchases, acquisitions and investment in core businesses. 

 

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Details underlying the primary sources of our holding company cash flows (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

The table above focuses on significant and recurring cash flow items and excludes the effects of certain financing activities, namely the periodic issuance and retirement of debt and cash flows related to our inter-company cash management program (discussed below).  Taxes have been eliminated from the analysis due to a tax sharing agreement among our primary subsidiaries resulting in a modest effect on net cash flows at the holding company.  Also excluded from this analysis is the modest amount of investment income on short-term investments of the holding company.  See “Part IV – Item 15(a)(2) Financial Statement Schedules – Schedule II – Condensed Financial Information of Registrant” for the parent company cash flow statement.

 

Restrictions on Dividends from Subsidiaries

 

Our insurance subsidiaries are subject to certain insurance department regulatory restrictions as to the transfer of funds and payment of dividends to the holding company.  Under Indiana laws and regulations, our Indiana insurance subsidiaries, including our primary insurance subsidiary, LNL, may pay dividends to LNC without prior approval of the Indiana Insurance Commissioner (the “Commissioner”) only from unassigned surplus or must receive prior approval of the Commissioner to pay a dividend if such dividend, along with all other dividends paid within the preceding 12 consecutive months, would exceed the statutory limitation.  The current statutory limitation is the greater of 10% of the insurer’s contract holders’ surplus, as shown on its last annual statement on file with the Commissioner or the insurer’s statutory net gain from operations for the previous 12 months, but in no event to exceed statutory unassigned surplus.  Indiana law gives the Commissioner broad discretion to disapprove requests for dividends in excess of these limits.  LNL’s subsidiary, the Lincoln Life & Annuity Company of New York (“LLANY”), a New York-domiciled insurance company, has similar restrictions, except that in New York it is the lesser of 10% of surplus to contract holders as of the immediately preceding calendar year or net gain from operations for the immediately preceding calendar year, not including realized capital gains.

 

We expect our domestic insurance subsidiaries could pay dividends of approximately $900 million in 2016 without prior approval from the respective state commissioners.  The amount of surplus that our insurance subsidiaries could pay as dividends is constrained by the amount of surplus we hold to maintain our ratings, to provide an additional layer of margin for risk protection and for future investment in our businesses. 

 

We maintain an investment portfolio of various holdings, types and maturities.  These investments are subject to general credit, liquidity, market and interest rate risks.  An extended disruption in the credit and capital markets could adversely affect LNC and its subsidiaries’ ability to access sources of liquidity, and there can be no assurance that additional financing will be available to us on favorable terms, or at all, in the current market environment.  In addition, further OTTI could reduce our statutory surplus, leading to lower RBC ratios and potentially reducing future dividend capacity from our insurance subsidiaries.

 

Insurance Subsidiaries’ Statutory Capital and Surplus

 

Our insurance subsidiaries must maintain certain regulatory capital levels.  We utilize the RBC ratio as a primary measure of the capital adequacy of our insurance subsidiaries.  The RBC ratio is an important factor in the determination of the credit and financial strength ratings of LNC and its subsidiaries, as a reduction in our insurance subsidiaries’ surplus may affect their RBC ratios and dividend-paying capacity.  For a discussion of RBC ratios, see “Part I – Item 1. Business – Regulatory – Insurance Regulation – Risk-Based Capital.”  

 

Our regulatory capital levels are also affected by statutory accounting rules, which are subject to change by each applicable insurance regulator.  Our term products and UL products containing secondary guarantees require reserves calculated pursuant to XXX and AG38, respectively.  During the third quarter of 2013, the New York State Department of Financial Services announced that it would not recognize the NAIC revisions to AG38 in applying the New York law governing the reserves to be held for UL and VUL products containing secondary guarantees.  The change, which was effective as of December 31, 2013, impacted LLANY.  Although LLANY discontinued the sale of these products in early 2013, the change affected those policies previously sold.  We began phasing in the increase in reserves over five years beginning in 2013.  As of December 31, 2015, we have increased reserves by $270 million. We do not expect the amount for each of the remaining years to exceed $90 million per year.  We do not expect the total reserve increase to have a material adverse effect on our financial condition.

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As discussed in “Part I – Item 1. Risk Factors – Legislative, Regulatory, and Tax – Attempts to mitigate the impact of Regulation XXX and Actuarial Guideline 38 may fail in whole or in part resulting in an adverse effect on our financial condition and result of operations,” our insurance subsidiaries employ strategies to reduce the strain caused by XXX and AG38 by reinsuring the business to insurance captives.  Our captive reinsurance and reinsurance subsidiaries provide a mechanism for financing a portion of the excess reserve amounts in a more efficient manner.  We use long-dated LOCs and debt financing as well as other financing strategies to finance those reserves.  Included in the LOCs issued as of December 31, 2015, and reported in the credit facilities table in Note 12, was approximately $3.8 billion of long-dated LOCs issued to support inter-company reinsurance arrangements.  Approximately $2.7 billion of such LOCs were issued to support reinsurance for UL products containing secondary guarantees ($400 million will expire in 2018, $350 million will expire in 2019, and $1.9 billion will expire in 2031), and $1.1 billion of such LOCs that will expire in 2023 were issued to support reinsurance for term business.  We have also used the proceeds from senior note issuances of $875 million to execute long-term structured solutions supporting reinsurance of UL products containing secondary guarantees.  Additionally, our captive reinsurance and reinsurance subsidiaries have issued long-term notes of $1.6 billion as of December 31, 2015, to finance a portion of the excess reserves.  For information on these long-term notes issued by our captive reinsurance and reinsurance subsidiaries, see Note 4.  LOCs and related capital market solutions lower the capital effect of term products and UL products containing secondary guarantees. An inability to obtain appropriate capital market solutions could affect our returns on our in-force term products and UL products containing secondary guarantees.  However, we believe that we have sufficient capital to support the increase in statutory reserves, based on our current reserve projections, if such structures were no longer available.

 

Our captive reinsurance subsidiaries free up capital the insurance subsidiaries can use for any number of purposes, including paying dividends to the holding company.  Once transferred to the holding company, it can deploy this capital for a variety of corporate purposes, including potentially stock repurchases.  Actuarial Guideline 48 (“AG48”) regulates the terms of captive reinsurance arrangements that are entered into or amended in certain ways after December 31, 2014.  AG48 imposes restrictions on the types of assets that can be used to support these arrangements.  We believe that we will be able to implement these arrangements in compliance with AG48.

 

Statutory reserves established for variable annuity contracts and riders are sensitive to changes in the equity markets and are affected by the level of account values relative to the level of any guarantees, product design and reinsurance arrangements.  As a result, the relationship between reserve changes and equity market performance is non-linear during any given reporting period.  Market conditions greatly influence the ultimate capital required due to its effect on the valuation of reserves and derivative assets hedging these reserves.  We also utilize inter-company reinsurance arrangements to manage our hedge program for variable annuity guarantees.  The NAIC through its various committees, task forces and working groups has been studying the use of captives and special purpose vehicles to transfer insurance risk and has been evaluating the adequacy of existing NAIC model laws and regulations applicable to annuity captives.

 

Changes in equity markets may also affect the capital position of our insurance subsidiaries.  We may decide to reallocate available capital among our insurance subsidiaries, including our captive reinsurance subsidiaries, which would result in different RBC ratios for our insurance subsidiaries.  In addition, changes in the equity markets can affect the value of our variable annuity separate accounts.  When the market value of our separate account assets increases, the statutory surplus within our insurance subsidiaries also increases.  Contrarily, when the market value of our separate account assets decreases, the statutory surplus within our insurance subsidiaries may also decrease, which may affect RBC ratios, and in the case of our separate account assets becoming less than the related product liabilities, we must allocate additional capital to fund the difference. 

 

We continue to analyze the use of our existing captive reinsurance structures, as well as additional third-party reinsurance arrangements, and our current hedging strategies relative to managing the effects of equity markets and interest rates on the statutory reserves, statutory capital and the dividend capacity of our life insurance subsidiaries. 

 

Financing Activities

 

Although our subsidiaries currently generate adequate cash flow to meet the needs of our normal operations, periodically we may issue debt or equity securities to maintain ratings and increase liquidity, as well as to fund internal growth, acquisitions and the retirement of our debt and equity securities. 

 

We currently have an effective shelf registration statement, which allows us to issue, in unlimited amounts, securities, including debt securities, preferred stock, common stock, warrants, stock purchase contracts, stock purchase units and depository shares. 

 

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Details underlying debt and financing activities (in millions) for the year ended December 31, 2015, were as follows:

 

 

 

We repaid a $250 million 4.30% fixed-rate senior note that matured on June 15, 2015.  On March 9, 2015, we completed the issuance and sale of $300 million aggregate principal amount of our 3.35% senior notes due 2025.  We used the proceeds from this offering to repay the maturity mentioned above and for general corporate purposes.  As of December 31, 2015, the holding company had available liquidity of $608 million.  Available liquidity consists of cash and invested cash, excluding cash held as collateral, and certain short-term investments that can be readily converted into cash, net of commercial paper outstanding.

 

For more information about our short-term and long-term debt and our credit facilities and LOCs, see Note 12.

 

We have not accounted for repurchase agreements, securities lending transactions, or other transactions involving the transfer of financial assets with an obligation to repurchase the transferred assets as sales.  For information about our collateralized financing transactions on our investments, see “Payables for Collateral on Investments” in Note 5.

 

If current credit ratings and claims-paying ratings were downgraded in the future, terms in our derivative agreements may be triggered, which could negatively affect overall liquidity.  For the majority of our counterparties, there is a termination event should the long-term senior debt ratings of LNC drop below BBB-/Baa3 (S&P/Moody’s).  Our long-term senior debt held a rating of A-/Baa1 (S&P/Moody’s) as of December 31, 2015.  In addition, contractual selling agreements with intermediaries could be negatively affected, which could have an adverse effect on overall sales of annuities, life insurance and investment products.  See “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Liquidity and Capital Position – A decrease in the capital and surplus of our insurance subsidiaries may result in a downgrade to our credit and insurer financial strength ratings” and “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Covenants and Ratings – A downgrade in our financial strength or credit ratings could limit our ability to market products, increase the number or value of policies being surrendered and/or hurt our relationships with creditors” for more information.  See “Part I – Item 1. Business – Financial Strength Ratings” for additional information on our current financial strength ratings.

 

Our indicative credit ratings published by the primary rating agencies are set forth below.  Securities are rated at the time of issuance so actual ratings may differ from the indicative ratings.  There may be other rating agencies that also provide credit ratings, which we do not disclose in our reports.

 

The long-term credit rating scales of A.M. Best, Fitch, Moody’s and S&P are characterized as follows:

 

 

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As of February 18, 2016, our indicative long-term credit ratings as published by the principal rating agencies that rate our long-term credit were as follows:

 

 

The short-term credit rating scales of A.M. Best, Fitch, Moody’s and S&P are characterized as follows:

 

 

As of February 18, 2016, our indicative short-term credit ratings as published by the principal rating agencies that rate our short-term credit were as follows:

 

 

A downgrade of our debt ratings could affect our ability to raise additional debt with terms and conditions similar to our current debt, and accordingly, likely increase our cost of capital.  In addition, a downgrade of these ratings could make it more difficult to raise capital to refinance any maturing debt obligations, to support business growth at our insurance subsidiaries and to maintain or improve the current financial strength ratings of our principal insurance subsidiaries described in “Part I – Item 1. Business – Financial Strength Ratings.”

 

All ratings are on outlook stable.  All of our ratings are subject to revision or withdrawal at any time by the rating agencies, and therefore, no assurance can be given that we can maintain these ratings.  Each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating.

 

Management monitors the covenants associated with LNC’s capital securities.  If we fail to meet capital adequacy or net income and stockholders’ equity levels (also referred to as “trigger events”), terms in the agreements may be triggered, which would require us to make interest payments in accordance with an alternative coupon satisfaction mechanism (“ACSM”).  This would require us to use commercially reasonable efforts to pay interest in full on the capital securities with the net proceeds from sales of our common stock and warrants to purchase our common stock with an exercise price greater than the market price.  We would have to utilize the ACSM until the trigger events above no longer existed.  If we were required to utilize the ACSM and were successful in selling sufficient shares of common stock or warrants to satisfy the interest payment, we would dilute the current holders of our common stock.  Furthermore, while a trigger event is occurring and if we do not pay accrued interest in full, we may not, among other things, pay dividends on or repurchase our capital stock.  We have not triggered either the net income test or the overall stockholders’ equity test looking forward to the quarters ending March 31, 2016, and June 30, 2016.  For more information, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Covenants and Ratings – We will be required to pay interest on our capital securities with proceeds from the issuance of qualifying securities if we fail to achieve capital adequacy or net income and stockholders’ equity levels.”

 

Alternative Sources of Liquidity

 

In order to manage our capital more efficiently, we have an inter-company cash management program where certain subsidiaries can lend to or borrow from the holding company to meet short-term borrowing needs.  The cash management program is essentially a series of demand loans between LNC and participating subsidiaries that reduces overall borrowing costs by allowing LNC and its subsidiaries to access internal resources instead of incurring third-party transaction costs.  As of December 31, 2015, the holding company had a net outstanding payable of $15 million to certain subsidiaries resulting from loans made by subsidiaries in excess of amounts borrowed by subsidiaries in the inter-company cash management account.  Any change in holding company cash management program balances is offset by the immediate and equal change in holding company cash and invested cash.  Loans under the cash management program are permitted under applicable insurance laws subject to certain restrictions.  For our Indiana-domiciled insurance subsidiaries, the borrowing and lending limit is currently 3% of the insurance company’s admitted assets as of its most recent year end.  For our New York-domiciled insurance subsidiary, it may borrow from LNC less than 2% of its admitted assets as of the last year end but may not lend any amounts to LNC.

 

Our insurance subsidiaries, by virtue of their general account fixed-income investment holdings, can access liquidity through securities lending programs and repurchase agreements.  As of December 31, 2015, our insurance subsidiaries had investments with a carrying value of $3.3 billion out on loan or subject to repurchase agreements.  The cash received in our securities lending programs and repurchase agreements is typically invested in cash equivalents, short-term investments or fixed maturity securities.  For additional details, see “Payables for Collateral on Investments” in Note 5.

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For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.  

 

Cash Flows from Collateral on Derivatives

 

Our cash flows associated with collateral received from and posted with counterparties change as the market value of the underlying derivative contract changes.  As the value of a derivative asset declines (or increases), the collateral required to be posted by our counterparties would also decline (or increase).  Likewise, when the value of a derivative liability declines (or increases), the collateral we are required to post to our counterparties would also decline (or increase).  During 2015, our payables for collateral on derivative investments decreased by $286 million due primarily to rising interest rates that decreased the fair values of our associated derivative investments.  In the event of adverse changes in fair value of our derivative instruments, we may need to post collateral with a counterparty if our net derivative liability position reaches certain contractual levels.  If we do not have sufficient high quality securities or cash and invested cash to provide as collateral, we have multiple liquidity sources to leverage that would be eligible for collateral posting.  For additional information, see “Credit Risk” in Note 6.

 

Divestitures

 

For a discussion of our divestitures, see Note 3.

 

Uses of Capital

 

Our principal uses of cash are to pay policy claims and benefits, operating expenses, commissions and taxes, to purchase new investments, to purchase reinsurance, to fund policy surrenders and withdrawals, to pay dividends to our stockholders, to repurchase our stock and to repay debt.

 

Return of Capital to Common Stockholders

 

One of the Company’s primary goals is to provide a return to our common stockholders through share price accretion, dividends and stock repurchases.  In determining dividends, the Board of Directors takes into consideration items such as current and expected earnings, capital needs, rating agency considerations and requirements for financial flexibility.  The amount and timing of share repurchase depends on key capital ratios, rating agency expectations, the generation of free cash flow and an evaluation of the costs and benefits associated with alternative uses of capital.  Free cash flow for the holding company generally represents the amount of dividends and interest received from subsidiaries less interest paid on debt.

 

Details underlying this activity (in millions, except per share data), were as follows:

 

 

 

On October 28, 2015, our Board of Directors approved an increase of the quarterly dividend on our common stock from $0.20 to $0.25 per share.  Additionally, we expect to repurchase additional shares of common stock during 2016 depending on market conditions and alternative uses of capital.  For more information regarding share repurchases, see “Item 5. Market for Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities – (c) Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities”.

 

Other Uses of Capital

 

In addition to the amounts in the table above in “Return of Capital to Common Stockholders,” other uses of holding company cash flow (in millions) were as follows:

 

 

 

The above table focuses on significant and recurring cash flow items and excludes the effects of certain financing activities, namely the periodic retirement of debt and cash flows related to our inter-company cash management account.  Taxes have been eliminated from the

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analysis due to a tax sharing agreement among our primary subsidiaries resulting in a modest effect on net cash flows at the holding company.

 

Contractual Obligations

 

Details underlying our future estimated cash payments for our contractual obligations (in millions) as of December 31, 2015, were as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

In addition to the contractual commitments outlined in the table above, we periodically fund the employees’ defined benefit plans.  The majority of contributions and benefit payments are made by our insurance subsidiaries with little affect on holding company cash flow. 

 

Due to the uncertainty with respect to the timing of future cash flows associated with our unrecognized tax benefits as of December 31, 2015, we are unable to make reasonably reliable estimates of the period of cash settlement with the respective taxing authority.  Therefore, $15 million of unrecognized tax benefits and its associated interest have been excluded from the contractual obligations table above.  See Note 7 for additional information.

 

Contingencies and Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

 

We do not have any off-balance sheet arrangements that are reasonably likely to have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity or capital resources.  Details underlying our contingent commitments and off-balance sheet arrangements (in millions) as of December 31, 2015, were as follows:

 

 

 

 

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Significant Trends in Sources and Uses of Cash Flow

 

As stated above, LNC’s cash flow, as a holding company, is largely dependent upon the dividend capacity of its insurance company subsidiaries as well as their ability to advance funds to it through inter-company borrowing arrangements, which may be affected by factors influencing the insurance subsidiaries’ RBC and statutory earnings performance.  We currently expect to be able to meet the holding company’s ongoing cash needs and to have sufficient capital to offer downside protection in the event that the capital and credit markets experience another period of extreme volatility and disruption.  A decline in capital market conditions, which reduces our insurance subsidiaries’ statutory surplus and RBC, may require them to retain more capital and may pressure our subsidiaries’ dividends to the holding company, which may lead us to take steps to preserve or raise additional capital.  For factors that could affect our expectations for liquidity and capital, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors.”

   

OTHER MATTERS

 

Other Factors Affecting Our Business

 

In general, our businesses are subject to a changing social, economic, legal, legislative and regulatory environment.  Some of the changes include initiatives to require more reserves to be carried by our insurance subsidiaries.  Although the eventual effect on us of the changing environment in which we operate remains uncertain, these factors and others could have a material effect on our results of operations, liquidity and capital resources.  For factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in this section, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors” and “Forward-Looking Statements – Cautionary Language” above.

 

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

 

See Note 2 for a discussion of recent accounting pronouncements that have been implemented during the periods presented or that have been issued and are to be implemented in the future.

 

Item 7A.  Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

 

We analyze and manage the risks arising from market exposures of financial instruments, as well as other risks, in an integrated asset-liability management process that considers diversification.  By aggregating the potential effect of market and other risks on the entire enterprise, we estimate, review and in some cases manage the risk to our earnings and shareholder value.  We have exposures to several market risks including interest rate risk, equity market risk, default risk, credit risk and, to a lesser extent, foreign currency exchange risk.  The exposures of financial instruments to market risks, and the related risk management processes, are most important to our business where most of the invested assets support accumulation and investment-oriented insurance products.  As an important element of our integrated asset-liability management processes, we use derivatives to minimize the effects of changes in interest levels, the shape of the yield curve, currency movements and volatility.  In this context, derivatives serve to minimize interest rate risk by mitigating the effect of significant increases in interest rates on our earnings.  Additional market exposures exist in our other general account insurance products and in our debt structure and derivatives positions.  Our primary sources of market risk are substantial, relatively rapid and sustained increases or decreases in interest rates or a sharp drop in equity market values.  These market risks are discussed in detail in the following pages and should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and the accompanying Notes presented in “Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” as well as “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”.

 

Interest Rate Risk  

 

With respect to accumulation and investment-oriented products, we seek to earn a stable and profitable spread, or margin, between investment income we earn on our invested assets and interest credited to account values of our contract holders.  If we have adverse experience on investments that cannot be passed on to customers, our spreads are reduced.  We are seeing spread compression abate, as the difference between our new money yield and our fixed income portfolio yield has narrowed.  The combination of a probable range of interest rate changes over the next 12 months, asset-liability management strategies, flexibility in adjusting policy crediting rate levels and protection afforded by policy surrender charges all work together to mitigate this risk.  The interest rate scenarios of concern are those in which there is a substantial, relatively prolonged decrease in interest rates that is sustained over a long period or a rapid increase in interest rates.

 

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Significant Interest Rate Exposures

 

The following provides a general measure of our significant interest rate risk; amounts are shown by year of maturity and include amortization of premiums and discounts; interest rate cap agreements notional amounts are shown by amount outstanding (dollars in millions) as of December 31, 2015:

 

 

 

 

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The following provides the principal amounts and estimated fair values of assets, liabilities and derivatives (in millions) having significant interest rate risks as of December 31, 2014:

 

 

 

 

Effect of Interest Rate Sensitivity

 

The following table presents our estimate of the effect on income (loss) from operations by segment (in millions) for the next 12-month period if the level of interest rates were to instantaneously increase or decrease by 1% and remain at those levels immediately after December 31, 2015:

 

 

 

For purposes of this estimate, we exclude any effect related to sales, unlocking, persistency, hedge program performance or customer behavior caused by the interest rate change.

 

Interest Rate Risk on Fixed Insurance Businesses – Falling Rates

 

In periods of declining interest rates, we have to reinvest the cash we receive as interest or return of principal on our investments in lower yielding instruments.  Moreover, borrowers may prepay fixed-income securities, commercial mortgages and MBS in our general accounts in order to borrow at lower market rates, which exacerbates this risk.  Because we are entitled to reset the interest rates on our fixed-rate annuities only at limited, pre-established intervals, and because many of our contracts have guaranteed minimum interest or crediting rates, our spreads could decrease and potentially become negative. 

 

Prolonged historically low rates are not healthy for our business fundamentals.  However, we have recognized this risk and have been proactive in our investment strategies, product designs, crediting rate strategies and overall asset-liability practices to mitigate the risk of unfavorable consequences in this type of environment.  For some time now, new products have been sold with low minimum crediting floors, and we apply disciplined asset-liability management standards, such as locking in spreads on these products at the time of issue.    See “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Market Conditions – Changes in interest rates and sustained low interest rates may cause interest rate spreads to decrease and changes in interest rates may also result in increased contract withdrawals” for additional information on interest rates. 

 

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The following provides detail on the percentage differences between the December 31, 2015, interest rates being credited to contract holders based on the fourth quarter of 2015 declared rates and the respective minimum guaranteed policy rate (in millions), broken out by contract holder account values reported within our segments:

 

 

 

 

The maturity structure and call provisions of the related portfolios are structured to afford protection against erosion of investment portfolio yields during periods of declining interest rates.  We devote extensive effort to evaluating the risks associated with falling interest rates by simulating asset and liability cash flows for a wide range of interest rate scenarios.  We seek to manage these exposures by maintaining a suitable maturity structure and by limiting our exposure to call risk in each respective investment portfolio.

 

Interest Rate Risk on Fixed Insurance Businesses – Rising Rates

 

For both annuities and universal life insurance, a rapid rise in interest rates poses risks of deteriorating spreads and high surrenders.  The portfolios supporting these products have fixed-rate assets laddered over maturities generally ranging from 1 to 10 years or more.  Accordingly, the earned rate on each portfolio lags behind changes in market yields.  As rates rise, the lag may be increased by slowing MBS prepayments.  The greater and faster the rise in interest rates, the more the earned rate will tend to lag behind market rates.  If we set renewal crediting rates to earn the desired spread, the gap between our renewal crediting rates and competitors’ new money rates may be wide enough to cause increased surrenders that could cause us to liquidate a portion of our portfolio to fund these surrenders.  If we credit more competitive renewal rates to limit surrenders, our spreads will narrow.  We devote extensive effort to evaluating these risks by simulating asset and liability cash flows for a wide range of interest rate scenarios.  Such analysis has led to adjustments in the target maturity structure and to hedging the risk of rising rates by entering into interest rate cap corridor agreements.  With these instruments in place, the potential adverse effect of a rapid and sustained rise in rates is kept within our risk tolerances. 

 

Debt    

 

We manage the timing of maturities and the mixture of fixed-rate and floating-rate debt as part of the process of integrated management of interest rate risk for the entire enterprise.  See Note 12 for additional information on our debt.

 

 

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Derivatives

 

See Note 6 for information on our derivatives used to hedge our exposure to changes in interest rates.

 

Equity Market Risk

 

Our revenues, assets and liabilities are exposed to equity market risk that we often hedge with derivatives.  Due to the use of our RTM process and our hedging strategies, we expect that, in general, short-term fluctuations in the equity markets should not have a significant effect on our quarterly earnings from unlocking of assumptions for DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL.  However, earnings are affected by equity market movements on account values and assets under management and the related fees we earn on those assets.  Refer to “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates – DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL” in the MD&A for further discussion of the effects of equity markets on our RTM.

 

Fee Income

 

The fees earned from variable annuities and variable life insurance products are exposed to the risk of a decline in equity market values.  These fees are generally a fixed percentage of the market value of assets under management.  In a severe equity market decline, fee income could be reduced by not only reduced market valuations but also by customer withdrawals and redemptions.  Such withdrawals and redemptions from equity funds and accounts might be partially offset by transfers to our fixed-income accounts and the transfer of funds to us from our competitors’ customers.

   

Assets

 

While we invest in equity assets with the expectation of achieving higher returns than would be available in our core fixed-income investments, the returns on and values of these equity investments are subject to somewhat greater market risk than our fixed-income investments.  These investments, however, add diversification benefits to our fixed-income investments.  The following provides the sensitivity of price changes (in millions) to our equity assets owned and equity derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

We have exposure to changes in our stock price through stock appreciation rights (“SARs”) issued in 2011 through 2015.  See Notes 6 and 18 for additional information on our SARs and the related call options used to hedge the expected increase in liabilities from SARs granted on our stock.  

 

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Derivatives Hedging Equity Market Risk

 

We have entered into derivative transactions to hedge our exposure to equity market fluctuations.  Such derivatives include over-the-counter equity call options, equity collars, total return swaps, put options, equity futures and call options.  See Note 6 for additional information on our derivatives used to hedge our exposure to equity market fluctuations.

 

Effect of Equity Market Sensitivity

 

If the level of the S&P 500 were to have instantaneously increased or decreased by 1% immediately after December 31, 2015, we estimate the effect on income (loss) from operations for the next 12-month period from the change in asset-based fees and related expenses would be approximately $9 million.  For purposes of this sensitivity, we used the S&P 500 as a proxy for equity market performance.  This estimate excludes any effect related to sales, unlocking, persistency, hedge program performance or customer behavior caused by the equity market change. 

 

The effect of quarterly equity market changes upon fee income and asset-based expenses is generally not fully recognized in the first quarter of the change because fee income is earned and related expenses are incurred based upon daily variable account values.  The difference between the current period average daily variable account values compared to the end-of-period variable account values affects fee income in subsequent periods.  Additionally, the effect on earnings may not necessarily be symmetrical with comparable increases or decreases in the equity markets.  This discussion concerning the estimated effects of ongoing equity market volatility on the fees we earn from account values and assets under management is intended to be illustrative and is concentrated primarily in our Annuities and Retirement Plan Services segments.  Actual effects may vary depending on a variety of factors, many of which are outside of our control, such as changing customer behaviors that might result in changes in the mix of our business between variable and fixed annuity contracts, switching among investment alternatives available within variable products, changes in sales production levels or changes in policy persistency.  For purposes of this guidance, the change in account values is assumed to correlate with the change in the relevant index. 

 

Default Risk

 

Our portfolio of invested assets was $102.2 billion and $103.0 billion as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively.  Of this total, $74.3 billion and $74.9 billion consisted of corporate bonds and $8.7 billion and $7.6  billion consisted of mortgage loans on real estate as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively.  We manage the risk of adverse default experience on these investments by applying disciplined credit evaluation and underwriting standards, prudently limiting allocations to lower-quality, higher-yielding investments and diversifying exposures by issuer, industry, region and property type.  For each counterparty or borrowing entity and its affiliates, our exposures from all transactions are aggregated and managed in relation to formal limits set by rating quality.  Additional diversification limits, such as limits per industry, are also applied.  We remain exposed to occasional adverse cyclical economic downturns during which default rates may be significantly higher than the long-term historical average used in pricing. 

 

We depend on the ability of derivative product dealers and their guarantors to honor their obligations to pay the contract amounts under various derivatives agreements.  In order to minimize the risk of default losses, we diversify our exposures among several dealers and limit the amount of exposure to each in accordance with the credit rating of each dealer or its guarantor.  We generally limit our selection of counterparties that are obligated under these derivative contracts to those with an A credit rating or above. 

 

Credit Risk  

 

We may use credit-related derivatives to minimize our exposure to credit-related events, and we also sell credit default swaps to offer credit protection to our contract holders and investors. 

 

In addition to the information provided about our counterparty exposure in Note 6, the fair value of our exposure by rating (in millions) was as follows:

 

 

 

See Note 6 for additional information on our credit risk.

 

Foreign Currency Exchange Risk

 

Foreign Currency Denominated Investments

 

We invest in foreign currency securities for incremental return and risk diversification relative to U.S. dollar-denominated securities.  We use foreign currency swaps and foreign currency forwards to hedge some of the foreign exchange risk related to our investment in

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securities denominated in foreign currencies.  The currency risk is hedged using foreign currency derivatives of the same currency as the bonds.  See Note 6 for additional information on our foreign currency swaps and foreign currency forwards used to hedge our exposure to foreign currency exchange risk.

 

The following provides our principal or notional amount in U.S. dollar equivalents (in millions) as of December 31, 2015, by expected maturity for our foreign currency denominated investments and foreign currency swaps:

 

 

 

 

The following provides our principal or notional amount in U.S. dollar equivalents as of December 31, 2014, of our foreign currency denominated investments and foreign currency swaps (in millions):