S&P 500: SPX index could have a pullback as double-top forms

The S&P 500 index (SPX) has been in a remarkable rally in the past few weeks as the momentum has accelerated. The index jumped to a high of $4,560, its highest point since August 1st. It is also nearing the year-to-date high of $4,603. 

The SPX index has been in a strong uptrend as investors have gotten greedy after the encouraging inflation data. According to CNN, the fear and greed index has soared to the greed area of 68. In most cases, American equities do well when investors are a bit greedy.

The rally has also coincided with the retreat of the US dollar index (DXY). The index has dropped to $103.50, which is lower than the year-to-date high of $107.50. Also, it has jumped as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has retreated to a low of $12, the lowest point since March 2020.

This price action accelerated after the US published encouraging consumer and producer inflation data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline inflation dropped to 3.2% in October while core CPI retreated to 4.0%. 

The ongoing crude oil price retreat means that inflation has continued falling. Brent, the global benchmark, dropped to $80 while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retreated to $75. This price action happened as OPEC+ members disagreed on supply cuts.

American gasoline prices have dropped sharply in the past few months. The average gasoline price dropped to $3.2, according to AAA. Gasoline is an important part of the country’s inflation. 

Therefore, the outlook is that the Fed is now done hiking interest rates. Most economists expect that it will leave rates unchanged between 5.50% and 5.25% and then start cutting in 2024.

SPX chart by TradingView

Turning to the daily chart, we see that Advance Decline Line (ADL) indicator has been in a strong uptrend. It has risen to the highest level since September 9th. ADL is a popular breadth indicator that looks at the number of advancing and retreating companies.

At the same time, the McClellan Summation Index has also remained in the green level since October 30th. It also remains above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which is a bullish sign.

The index seems to be forming a double-top pattern at $4,603. In price action analysis, this is one of the most popular bearish signs. Therefore, the outlook for the index is moderately bullish, with the next level to watch being at $4,603. A break above that level will invalidate the double-top and lead to more gains.

The other likely scenario is where it has a moderate pullback before resuming the bullish trend.