As the economy remains the top overall issue for voters, a new Fox News national poll finds high prices will be the main factor driving them to cast ballots this fall, as an increasing number say grocery prices and housing costs are tough for their family.
At least 6 in 10 voters say grocery prices (66%) and housing costs (60%) are a major problem for their family. In May, those numbers were at 62% for groceries and 47% for housing costs.
The 13-point jump in housing costs being a major problem is seen across the board but mainly among men (+16 points major problem), White voters (+15), those without a college degree (+15), Republicans (+15), voters ages 65 and over (+14), Democrats (+13), and those under 45 (+13).
Nearly half of voters (48%) say gas prices are a major problem, about where it was in May.
FOX NEWS POLL: HARRIS TOPS TRUMP BY TWO POINTS
All this leads to high prices being the single most important factor that voters say will motivate them to go out and vote this election. Four in 10 say high prices (39%) will be the main issue driving them, followed by immigration (32%), stopping the other side from winning (29%), abortion (27%), violent crime (26%), the candidate’s race (9%), and the candidate’s gender (7%).
For Democrats, the single most important factor will be abortion (39%) and stopping the other side from winning (37%). For both Republicans and Independents, it’s immigration (50% and 27%, respectively) and high prices (49% and 40%).
The economy has been the top issue for much of the campaign and that’s no different now. Thirty-nine percent say it’s the economy, with immigration (16%) and abortion (15%) registering a distant second and third. All other issues tested were in single digits.
Democrats’ most important issue is split between abortion (27%) and the economy (25%), while Republicans and Independents are again united with the economy first (50% and 45%, respectively) then immigration (30% and 13%).
When it comes to who can better handle these priorities, former President Donald Trump is favored on two of the top three. By 5 points, he is seen as better able to handle the economy and by 10 points immigration, while more voters trust Vice President Kamala Harris to handle abortion by 16 points.
The candidates are rated evenly when it comes to handling taxes, while voters give Harris the lead on helping the middle class by 9 points.
"The issue profile of this election continues to favor Trump," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson. "But his edge on economic issues has decreased, probably due to Harris’ messaging on housing costs and taxes, both of which target the middle class and appear to be paying off."
FOX NEWS POLL: HARRIS CLOSES GAP WITH TRUMP IN SUN BELT STATES
Overall, Harris has a 2-point edge (within the error margin) in the head-to-head matchup against Trump (50%-48%).
"One reason the horserace is so tight is that a handful of voters who trust Trump on the economy and immigration still back Harris and a handful of those trusting Harris on abortion and climate favor Trump," says Dana Blanton, who runs the Fox News polling unit.
Trump’s advantage on the economy is bolstered by a rosier picture of his time in office. By 17 points, more voters see his administration’s policies as helpful than harmful, whereas by 24 points they see the Biden administration’s policies as more hurtful.
Half of Democrats (50%) say Biden’s policies are helping them, while most Republicans (87%) and over half of Independents (52%) say they are hurting. More than half of Democrats feel Trump’s policies were hurtful (55%) vs. most Republicans saying helpful (86%). Independents are more mixed on their memory of Trump policies: 39% helped, 32% hurt, 29% no difference.
"The perception that Trump’s policies helped more than Biden’s creates some heavy baggage for Harris in this campaign and shows why ‘turning the page’ is a central theme she’s tried to stress," says Anderson.
Roughly 4 in 10 voters overall (39%) think imposing tariffs on products hurts the economy while 36% says it helps. Two in 10 believe it doesn’t make a difference.
While it’s nowhere near the high of 84% during Biden’s presidency, 7 in 10 have a negative view of the economy (70%) compared to 3 in 10 who hold a positive view (29%). That negative view includes most Republicans (90%) and Independents (77%) and nearly half of Democrats (48%).
The president’s job rating stands at 42% approve, 58% disapprove, mostly unchanged since July.
One more thing…
Despite negative attitudes on the economy and high prices, 41% of voters think life for the next generation will be better, up from 25% when the question was last asked two years ago. The new result sits near the high of 42% recorded in August 2012.
Compared to 2022, the increase in optimism for future Americans comes mainly from those without a college degree (+21), voters with annual income under $50,000 (+20), nonwhite voters (+19), Democrats (+18), men (+18), and voters under age 30 (+16).
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Conducted September 13-16, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,102 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (128) and cellphones (699) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (275). Results based on both the full registered voter sample and the subsample of 876 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with results among subgroup is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
